A Dark Cloud Lifted

Dana Hughes, part of our recent expansion of reporters stationed around the globe, blogs from Nairobi, Kenya:

Finally. That’s what journalists, politicians, and most importantly Kenyans all said today after former Secretary General Kofi Annan uttered the words we’ve all been longing to hear: “We have a deal.”

And just like that opposition leader Raila Odinga was referring to his friend “President” Mwai Kibaki, President Kibaki was talking about how much he looks forward to working with his friend the Honorable (soon the be Prime Minister) Raila Odinga, and the entire diplomatic community, as well as Kenyan bystanders, broke out into applause. It’s as if someone removed a looming, potentially disastrous storm cloud over the entire nation. I overheard one woman on her cell phone telling someone “we can finally say ‘Happy New Year’ now.”

On Tuesday, the situation looked bleak after Annan announced he was suspending the mediation talks with the parties’ negotiating teams out of frustration. Tired of hardliners on both sides unwilling to compromise on the issue of power-sharing, he declared that from then on he was only going to talk with the two leaders. Everyone, including myself, thought “uh oh. This is not good.”

“Not good” in this situation was translating into “possible civil war.”
Last week the human rights watchdog group and think tank the
International Crisis Group issued a pretty scary report detailing how
militias throughout the country were arming themselves and training for
war should the talks fail. The local paper The Daily Nation published a
comprehensive investigative piece yesterday confirming the ICG’s
findings, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice threatened that the U.S.
would take unspecified actions against Kenya if the talks did not
succeed, the opposition began calling for more mass protests; and it
suddenly became abundantly clear that Kenya was truly at a crossroads.
Either a deal would be made now so the country could work on returning
to being a peaceful, democratic and economic leader in Africa, or Kenya
was going to join the Ivory Coast, Angola, Burundi, Rwanda and
countless other African nations who’ve spiraled into uncontrollable
violence.

To everyone’s relief (and surprise a bit) Annan’s strategy worked.
After a five-hour meeting today both leaders decided to put the nation
ahead of their own anger and ambitions and struck a power-sharing deal.
No one got everything they wanted. President Kibaki is not resigning
and there will be no re-run of the election; actions the opposition
wanted. A prime minister position with executive powers is being
created by constitutional amendment, which will be passed by parliament
next week instead of a year-long constitutional review and public
referendum, which is what the government was seeking.

Even in all the euphoria of the deal, signs that the country is still
in a fragile state persist. In downtown Nairobi opposition supporters
peacefully celebrated, chanting “Raila Rules” were promptly tear-gassed
by police. I asked my Kenyan intern why the police would tear-gas
people peacefully celebrating and he said, “They were taunting the
president.” Political hardliners will undoubtedly be unhappy with the
compromises made and some will most likely look for ways to undermine
the agreement.

But Annan warns that the country has no other option but to make this
agreement work. “In all successful negotiations there is give and
take,” he said.  “Invariably, some supporters on each side feel that
their negotiators gave too much. To those people in Kenya, I would say
this: Compromise was necessary for the survival of this country.”