Mathew Dowd: Palin Poll Bounce Won’t Last
Mathew Dowd (ABC’s political contributer & George W. Bush’s chief strategist in 2004) said today on Good Morning America that the huge poll bounce experienced by McCain/Palin is not likely to last. An ABC News/Washington Post poll a day ago found McCain had caught up to Obama and the race had tightened to dead even. Fueling the comeback — a 20 point swing among white women for McCain/Palin. Dowd refered to the similarities between Walter Mondale’s pick of Geraldine Ferarro in 1984 and the big boost that provided the Democratic ticket. Mondale was trailing and his VP pick helped the campaign to pull even. Soon though their poll numbers dipped back down. Click here to watch Dowd.

Email




RSS
Twitter
Facebook
You’re correct Dowd, the bounce is going to get bigger!!
Posted by: bombem | September 10, 2008, 11:40 am 11:40 am
24 years ago it was a whole different ballgame. The treatment of Hillary upset a lot of women & I do believe they will vote for McCain. There are some of us out here that most of the policies won’t affect us one way or another. If you have health care & make a decent living that never matters what the economy is doing. Along with no children that the education policy is mute. What are you going to do?
Posted by: rockthebleachers | September 10, 2008, 11:46 am 11:46 am
Mathew Dowd, you strategy is based on Historical data. As stocks state: Historical performance does indicate future outcome.
Add following few parameters to your strategy:
Parameter 1: Demographics
Parameter 2: Campaign Finance
Parameter 3: Hillary Factor
Parameter 4: Obama Himself
Posted by: Tim | September 10, 2008, 11:51 am 11:51 am
Former Mayor Koch, endorses Obama.
Posted by: Lookup | September 10, 2008, 12:00 pm 12:00 pm
He’s right. McCain numbers are already starting to slip. And now she has all these controversies surrounding her (Ferarro in 1984; husband financial dealings controversy) and where or not she’s lying about her record.
I say McCain already lost this election. He’s fighting with Barack over traditional RED states. And Obama’s leading in several which is why he over 270 on the electoral map.
Posted by: Vanessa | September 10, 2008, 12:01 pm 12:01 pm
NY Daily Post, endorses McCain/Palin
Posted by: Lookup | September 10, 2008, 12:02 pm 12:02 pm
I find it so offensive that because I have ovaries I’m supposed to find voting for McCain/Palin an irresistable urge! The bounce will recede as those 20% white women start looking at her record.
You PUMA’s wanted Hillary? So you can’t get past you personal irritation about Obama and would rather set your lives back to the first half of the 20th century by voting for McCain/Palin? How politically short-sighted can you be?
Posted by: mindy | September 10, 2008, 12:07 pm 12:07 pm
It is really important that everyone, especially the youth of America steps up to the plate and vote the Obama/Bieden ticket. The U.S. future depends on a change in Washington and Obama is this country’s best chance at some kind of recovery from the irresposible Bush years!
Posted by: Kim | September 10, 2008, 12:13 pm 12:13 pm
Not a Republican but not a BO supporter. He will change nothing but his mind. He tells different people different things to get their vote. He will not get mine!
Posted by: Lookup | September 10, 2008, 12:16 pm 12:16 pm
Ditto
Posted by: rockthebleachers | September 10, 2008, 12:17 pm 12:17 pm
Mindy…Not as short sighted as the people that will vote for Obama, regardless of his radical, dangerous associations.
Posted by: carolyn | September 10, 2008, 12:19 pm 12:19 pm
Minday said at 12:07PM “You PUMA’s wanted Hillary? So you can’t get past you personal irritation about Obama and would rather set your lives back to the first half of the 20th century by voting for McCain/Palin? How politically short-sighted can you be?”
These PUMA’s are backstabbing Hillary in the way that voting for the dinosaur & his princess will likely dash Clinton’s dream of becoming 1st woman POTUS…it may very well go to a Republican woman that doesn’t share Hillary’s platform AT ALL. Not only that by McCain would likely be a one term only president, and a young, popular VP would likely run (successfully) for POTUS in 4 years. Clinton would be old news by then. A real Hillary backer would want McCain/Palin to fail.
Posted by: Daisy | September 10, 2008, 12:19 pm 12:19 pm
Matthew Dowd quit this election cycle because he refused to criticize Barack Obama, but said he was willing to criticize Hillary Clinton and John McCain. How does ABC News consider him an objection source?
Posted by: Karen | September 10, 2008, 12:26 pm 12:26 pm
As Americans remember that jobs and houses are evaporating the bounce will fall flat. As Americans remember that bin Laden is still free, that our troops are still bogged down in an unnecessary war, that health care costs continue to rise, as energy costs soar, that McCain is George Bush II, that Sarah Palin is a religious fanatic, that America has lost her allies and status in the world.. the bounce will fall flat.
So enjoy the bounce, it won’t last.
Posted by: Gus | September 10, 2008, 12:27 pm 12:27 pm
Calm down, democrats,
Obama/Biden will win.
Even with Palin, the enthusiasm gap is more than 20 percent, the turnout will be different from the poll.
that will make at least 2-3 percent difference from the poll.
Posted by: zen | September 10, 2008, 12:28 pm 12:28 pm
As a woman who was a little annoyed with treatment of Hillary, I must say that to those hurt Hillary women that are voting for McCain because he chose a woman is ridiculous. I do understand that she was treated unfairly, but how can you vote for someone who blantly says this is not about the issues. If it is not about the issues, then what is it about? The issue for me is that my brother is leaving to go to Iraq and I may never see him again because this war was based on a lie. The issue is that my neighbor has lost not one, but two sons because of this lie and husband will be deployed along with my brother. The issue is that my church memeber has lost her son because of a lie. How can you stand for a woman that say’s this war was God’s will? The issue is for me that my brother is married with 4 kids and his wife could possibly end up raising those kids alone. The issue for me is that having to meet a mortage, take care of kids, take care of ailing mother, look after ailing father who still works at 75, because SS is not enough, on top of that pay not only for my college, but a child as well. Those are my issues. Those are the things that I care about.
Posted by: Thrown for a Loop | September 10, 2008, 12:29 pm 12:29 pm
It was not a bounce.
The people are still speaking.
We Don’t need a speech
We Don’t need a Super Star
We Don’t need Just words
We Don’t need Present Votes
We Don’t need Empty Promises
We Don’t need someone Putting on a Show
We Don’t need reparations
We Don’t need Socialism
We Don’t need a Scam Artist
We Don’t need Obama
John McCain For America
John McCain ’08
John McCain for the Red, white and Blue
John McCain is for you
No Fancy speeches, No gimicks, He is real, He will take Care of America, Defend And Protect America and The Constitution.
Vote McCain
Posted by: seah | September 10, 2008, 12:35 pm 12:35 pm
Obama’s lipstick rebuttal occurred as he was presenting his views on education. What are his views?
You folks should send your kids to union dominated schools – no choice. Meanwhile, my daughters will continue to go to a private school for the elite!
Nice message Barack. Nice indeed!
Posted by: dl | September 10, 2008, 12:39 pm 12:39 pm
Obama: Rock Star.
McCain: Rock Solid.
No choice here for thinkers!
Posted by: dl | September 10, 2008, 12:42 pm 12:42 pm
The latest polls are showing Obama has almost regained all his edge back. Sarah’s shrill voice and ignorance will continue to eat away at the Republicans until they dump her – soon I predict.
Posted by: bob in texas | September 10, 2008, 12:46 pm 12:46 pm
Lipstick, and a pit bull would make a better Vice President. That’s TWO things that differentiate Sarah Palin from a pit bull.
Posted by: CalGal | September 10, 2008, 12:48 pm 12:48 pm
I think Palin will have a real balancing act she’ll need to pull off
when we get to know her. She didn’t support just creationism in the schools and isn’t against contraceptive information in the schools- she feels both creationsism/evolution absitinence/contraception should be taught but leaves it up to the parents/people. She did not bow to pressure by the pro-life groups to add a parental notification piece on an energy bill they pressured her on. The first veto she did as Governor was one that ensured that gay/lesbians kept their domestic partner rights. In statements she’s made she clearly is conservative on social issues personally but is clear her job is not to push her views on the people of Alaska. The Obama camp is engaging in a smear campaign to portray her as a right wing whacko and I think if the public ever get’s the opportunity to hear and read some of her statements as Governor or to see her beiing interviewed they’ll see how this story is being spun. The problem is that she risks alienating her christian right base though also.
Posted by: alpaig52 | September 10, 2008, 12:48 pm 12:48 pm
Bob in texas.
And which poles would you be referring to because, quite frankly, that is not what I see. Perhaps your “ignorance” blinds you.
Posted by: No socialist, No Leftist, No Obama | September 10, 2008, 12:50 pm 12:50 pm
Obama had a complete meltdown when he was interviewed by O’Riley. Couldn’t answer any tough question – tried to talk around them and change the subject.
When under pressure, BHO crumbles like a cookie!
Posted by: dl | September 10, 2008, 12:53 pm 12:53 pm
Rockthebleachers, Nope…sounds like me, but I guess I’m not the only one with this opinion. Whoever that was can’t count because the next election is in 2012…unless the person you quoted meant in Chinese Gymnist Years.
Posted by: Daisy | September 10, 2008, 12:57 pm 12:57 pm
‘
Obama: What is mine is mine. What is yours is mine.
Socialistic? Of course it is!
Posted by: dl | September 10, 2008, 12:58 pm 12:58 pm
Palin = Ferraro!
That’s funny!
Ideological opposites, but they’re both VP loosers. So I guess it works
“Bounce” means nothing at this point. Most of these polls to not include newly registered voters. Obama has MILLIONS of new young voters. McCain, uh, not so much.
Let Palin answer questions without a script in front of her. Bet she trys to play the poor female victim. (The very thing she made fun of Hillary for doing a few months ago.)
The hypocrasy of the Republican Party knows no bounds.
Posted by: Mellisa Vallecia | September 10, 2008, 1:02 pm 1:02 pm
Diasy, I believe 2016 means after BO serves the next 8.
Posted by: rockthebleachers | September 10, 2008, 1:03 pm 1:03 pm
You’re Not Gullible, just stupid,
Takes one then to know one.
Headline of the New Your Sun. “Obama’s Years at Columbia Are a Mystery.”
“Contributing to the mystery is the fact that nobody knows just how well Mr. Obama, unlike Senator McCain and most other major candidates for the past two elections, performed as a student.”
Gullible and stupid certainly do apply to you.
Posted by: Left side is braindead | September 10, 2008, 1:46 pm 1:46 pm
Here is a chief Republican strategist saying the bounce won’t last.
Posted by: Wm. J. LePetomaine | September 10, 2008, 1:59 pm 1:59 pm
We don’t need Bush II
We don’t need a belicose manner
We don’t need Bush votes 90% of the time
We don’t need war with Russia
We don’t need a VP with ethics issues
We don’t need no votes on veterans
We don’t need veto threats
We don’t need the radical right
We don’t need setting women back years
Vote Obama/Biden 2008
Posted by: Wm. J. LePetomaine | September 10, 2008, 2:03 pm 2:03 pm
Only been a week since the RNC, and they have already peaked. Their big convention bounce pulled them even in some polls. Smell the fear?
Posted by: Wm. J. LePetomaine | September 10, 2008, 2:06 pm 2:06 pm
Reporter: Mr. Obama, what are your qualifications to be president of the United States of America?
Obama: I was a community organizer.
Nuf said?
Posted by: dl | September 10, 2008, 2:44 pm 2:44 pm
rockthebleachers, did you actually read my post, or were you too busy assuming I had taken another identity? My comments were about a successful PUMA movement to elect McCain out of spite. If McCain wins, it is beyond doubtful that he will run for a second term (assuming he lasts through the first). Why would you think Hillary would wait until 2016? A more likely scenario would be a Palin vs. Clinton match in 2012. By then, as I stated before, Hillary will be old news.
Posted by: Daisy | September 10, 2008, 2:54 pm 2:54 pm
Daisy
Hillary is already old news.
Palin is the new news.
Palin for president after McCain
For the good of America!
Posted by: dl | September 10, 2008, 3:12 pm 3:12 pm
“We don’t need Bush II”
“We don’t need a belicose manner”
Correct, we need an end to partisanship and a shift from the ultra-left and ultra-right to the center of the political spectrum led by someone who actually, by their voting record, has demonstrated fully the ability to work with both sides of the political isle.
“We don’t need Bush votes 90% of the time”
We also don’t need someone who has voted with their party 100% of the time, that is, when they actually voted other then just, ‘present’.
“We don’t need war with Russia”
No, we don’t. We do need someone with wisdom and resolve to stand up to a resurgent Russia who by threat or direct force is actively attempting to diminish those former soviet satellite states who have chosen liberty for themselves. We need someone strong enough and experienced enough to stand up to a Russia who is holding a saber to Europe’s jugular, which is oil.
“We don’t need a VP with ethics issues”
Ethics issue? This issue is over an officer who tazered his stepson, some say jestingly, but against his clear and unequivocal training not to do so and also knowing full well the potential danger as well as threatening physical harm to his former spouse and her parents. Additionally, as troopers in Alaska also have game warden duties, he illegally hunted game. He should have been fired. The person who defended this officer and refused to fire him was rightly terminated.
Posted by: What we don't need | September 10, 2008, 4:08 pm 4:08 pm
I only have time to point out one area where you are wrong, whatwedontneed.
McCain on veterans issues: The Disabled American Veterans (DAV) gave him a 20% rating on vet’s legislation. They gave Obama 80%. The Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America (IAVA) gave McCain a letter grade of D; they gave Obama a B.
Posted by: Wm. J. LePetomaine | September 10, 2008, 4:47 pm 4:47 pm
I was waiting for this interview, so I can decide. Listening to her answers to the questions helped me to decide. It was a very easy decision afterall. She did not appear credible at all. She really seems to be more of the same.
Some people will probably vote for her out of pity which is sad. We are talking about future of a nation.
Posted by: Y | September 12, 2008, 4:58 pm 4:58 pm
Viagra uk.
Viagra uk.
Posted by: Viagra. | January 27, 2009, 12:11 am 12:11 am