The 4 Questions I’d Ask Tonight On Global Warming

ABC’s Bill Blakemore covers the environment: Covering global warming can seem at times like working in two parallel universes. On one hand, some preeminent peer-reviewed scientists say human-induced global warming is on track to usher in – even within the next three or four decades – something like "the end of civilization as we know it," which used to be a joke line on Monty Python – unless humanity takes urgent collective action immediately. On the other hand, such future upheaval seems mostly out of mind while daily life appears to be proceeding normally – aside, of course, from the current economic upheavals and a dramatic election. Even though the promo for an upcoming (October 21st) PBS special entitled "Heat" calls global warming "probably the most urgent problem facing the next president," that urgency is often not evident in the campaigns. Each candidate, perhaps loathe to frighten voters too much, has left a general impression for many of something like, "Hey, we can deal with this climate problem and sort it all out together – if you elect me." The next president will finally blend these two separate universes, according to many climate experts, filling a vacuum left by an 8-year administration that largely ignored, and at most downplayed, global warming. Both candidates call for strong action and mandatory caps on greenhouse emissions. The expectation of these hopeful scientists is that, once safely elected, McCain or Obama will stand in the national podium on Inauguration Day and start to square with our national psyche, ask us to get real about the gravity of this planetary crisis and the need to unleash a worldwide can-do spirit on a Biblical scale. If I could magically ask four questions about global warming in tonight’s debate, I would probe for signs of leadership style, try to get a feel for how each man handles what might be called "the psychology of global warming." I would also try to wedge some light into the shadowy presumption, still accepted by some of the mainstream press, that global warming is not a significantly differentiating issue between the two finalists. Four questions I’d ask McCain and Obama tonight: 1) Do you accept the likelihood, urged on by many scientists and national security experts worldwide, that by mid century – only 40 years from now, when today’s toddlers are barely into middle age – human-induced greenhouse emissions will, no matter what action humanity takes now, have produced droughts, famines and displacements of millions of climate refugees pushing across borders – all dramatic enough to unsettle governments? – And please be specific about this: do you accept this depiction of 2050 as a probability or at least a distinct possibility? **Viewer Alert: How each man answers this question might give a hint about his leadership style – his capacity for delivering uncomfortable truths to doubt – and his psychological fortitude in this unprecedented crisis. 2) How would you bring China and India, with their burgeoning and energy-hungry middle classes, into a global agreement to rapidly retool their power grids and cut carbon emissions enough to produce the 80% global cut in U.S. greenhouse emissions that scientists insist we must achieve by 2050 if we are to avoid the worst climate catastrophe? And do you think that goal is even attainable? **Viewer Alert: This question might help reveal the diplomatic savvy of each man. China is said by some American scientists to be ahead of the US in its technical knowledge and readiness for cutting emissions. It would also show the ease with which each man can integrate complex scientific assessments with international political and economic realities – a definite requirement in the next president’s job description. 3) How will you deal with the world’s leading coal companies, the largest of which is American? **Viewer Alert: This is a vital question. Climate experts have for years been warning that (as one told me three years ago) "Coal is the poison that will get us, if we don’t make it, not oil" – since coal is so cheap and plentiful worldwide while also emitting far more invisible CO2 per unit of energy than gas or oil. America is especially tempted by coal, having by far the world’s largest coal reserves – 28% of the planet’s total. Special attention should be paid to any answer involving "clean coal," or "coal gasification" or "carbon capture and sequestration." These processes, which have held out the promise of continuing markets for the world’s coal merchants in any carbon restricted future, are increasingly being described by scientists and engineers as undoable at any effective scale and as being far too expensive (per unit of emissions cut) to be workable in any large market. My last question would circle back to the first – but ask for more psychological insight: 4) How will you talk to us on Inauguration Day about global warming? What tone will you take, what details will you focus on? We’ve been reminded lately of FDR’s most famous words. In 1933, he started trying to lead the US through the Depression by declaring: "We have nothing to fear… but fear itself." He was in effect asking everyone to think about their own psychologies, take responsibility for their own emotions in the crisis – be their own shrinks, so to speak, and get a grip. How will you ask us to address ourselves to this global crisis, which the world’s scientists have, after 40 years of rigorous debate, come to agree on?