Closing Arguments: Does Dow’s Magic Number Matter?
The Dow Jones hit a milestone today — closing over 10,000 points. That is up more than 50 percent since the market bottomed out last March at less than 6600 points. It is a stunning comeback after a dismal year — and set off a celebration on the market floor. But workers and homeowners aren't celebrating. The national unemployment level is still at nearly 10 percent and there were a record number of foreclosures last quarter. So tonight, we ask: Is this just a psychological boost? Or is this magic Dow Jones number a true indicator of an economy on the mend? Tell us what you think. You can follow "Nightline" anytime on Twitter: http://twitter.com/Nightline.
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it is only numbers,consumer starts spending then only it’s real the economy recover.
Posted by: cincin bury dalam laut | October 15, 2009, 12:42 am 12:42 am
Come on, there is no economy, has’nt been for 6-12 months now.Can’t you sense it and feel it coming. That sound in your inner self that you hear is a toilet flushing with your your whole life savings going down the pipe.And the media keeps talking green shoots. WAKE UP America!
Posted by: rick | October 15, 2009, 12:45 am 12:45 am
Wall St. is doing good because it got money for free to bounce back.
Meanwhile the backbone of this country.. the US workers, got shafted and was told to learn to be more frugal… but that message was not given to Wall St.
Just goes to show how corrupt and misguided our Government is.
Nope… Wall St. doing good mean nothing.
Wall ST. is not the economy… we the working people are.. and if we have no money to spend.. then the economy will never bounce back.
Maybe then the dunder heads in the white house will get it thru their elitists heads.
Posted by: NewIndependent | October 15, 2009, 1:12 am 1:12 am
Its only heated air. Example: JP Morgan’s reporting quarter profits… due to increased payment requirements on balances from those that pay there credit card payment. The rest is not reported. Where is the new money?
Posted by: Manuel | October 15, 2009, 1:16 am 1:16 am
The Dow Jones is up….still no bank loan credit to business, housing market is still in the tank, and consumer spending and investment is still at an all time low…This tells me that risky investments are being made by a few companies that have unlimited access to foreign funds and investors. Obama’s bailouts and our tax dollars are now showing what the President promised them in the beginning…”Hey guys!!! It’s going to be business as usual.”
The Dow Jones is not an indicator of the “real” economy. Only an indicator of some small movement of money between industrial firms. The really important indicators are the housing market, job formation, consumer spending, and consumer and small business credit loans. I will hold my applause and refrain from popping the champagne cork until I see substantial improvements on the “Second front” of our economy, which still seems to be swirling slowly down the toilet of despair!!!
An indicator of an economy on the mend? HELL NO!!!….A psychological boost??? Only for the greed mongers and parasites on wall street who depend on the market and the misery of millions for a living. Obama…NO HOPE…NO CHANGE… NO NOTHING…ONLY INDECISION AND MORE DITHERING…BUT YOU GOT THE NOBEL PRIZE!!!
Posted by: Nachthexe | October 15, 2009, 1:18 am 1:18 am
Yea it matters in as much as it is going up. I do not think 10,000 is some magic point though.
The ridiculous posters ahead of me do not seem to understand that employment is a lagging indicator.
The sky is falling idea without doing any thing to help is absurd. The truth of the matter is I doubt that the previous poster really give a damn anyway.
Posted by: Thinking | October 15, 2009, 1:34 am 1:34 am
As the government prints money and floods the market with liquidity, the market inflates. All the fundamentals are awful, yet … freshly printed cash coupled with euphoria make the Dow fly. Reality will re-assert itself here in an ugly way somewhere down this road. This rally is a temporary detour through the twilight zone.
Posted by: Jason | October 15, 2009, 3:13 am 3:13 am
Amazing how few comments – noone seems to care. Nothing magic about 10,000 but going up tends to say we owners, buyers of stocks (most of the people in the US) think things are getting some better.
The risk is that the stock market rise is only or mostly driven by the fed contiuing to put downward pressure on interest rates, returns on fixed income investments as an alternative to owning stocks. Interest rates are so low its kinda like if you have any savings, invest in stocks hopeing for a gain or bury your money in the back yard. Only when the fed gets out of the business of keeping interest rates so low will we know if there is a real recovery in the equity markets.
Posted by: whocares | October 15, 2009, 3:23 am 3:23 am
It is good that the Dow is headed up, but there is nothing magic about the number 10,000. It is just another number on the long road to recovery in the stock markets. The Dow is only 30 stocks. The number that makes more sense to watch is the S&P 500, which is 500 stocks and represents 75% of the market on a capitalized basis. It too is up and on the road to recovery. It has climbed from 667 to 1092, but has a long way to go to 1576 where it was two years ago. 1092 is also just another number.
Most of the market rises so far are just gaining back the final losses during the panic selling by the losers who left the market. If these people behaved more rationally, the market decline would never have been so severe. When the last panic sellers, who are the biggest fools of all, left the market, it reversed and went up.
But we have a long way to go to fix this economy, especially to get jobs growing. This is another area where the Obama administration has yet to do anything whatsoever. When we see some major job gains, then we will know the economy is really on the mend.
Finally, you mention foreclosures. These are a good thing and will help the economy further. They are clearing the housing market of people who were put into houses and had no way of paying their mortgages and thereby caused the whole economic collapse.
Posted by: Proud Native American and Angry Independent Voter | October 15, 2009, 4:35 am 4:35 am
Hooray for Dow 10,000! Now here’s the reality that the media is ignoring:
- Job loss continues and we have no positive job creation to lead us out of the recession.
- We will need positive job creation at record breaking levels for 60 months just to break even.
- The real economy is therefore not growing at all, but remains severely depressed.
- Retail sales are down year over year. The consumer is not coming back any time soon.
- Credit to small business shrunk by 25% since last year.
- New business startups are down 14%
- Credit has contracted by $1.25 trillion in the last 24 months.
- 10% of all credit card accounts have been canceled.
- Excess capacity in manufacturing is now over 60%
- Shipping is idled all over the world with indexes at all time lows.
- Production is down in double digit numbers in all the world’s major manufacturing sectors.
- 32% of mortgaged U.S. housing is now “underwater.”
- In states like CA, FL, AZ, NV as many as 75% of housing is “underwater.”
- More than half a million house owners simply defaulted and walked away last year.
- There are 3.6 million unsold homes and another 7 million foreclosures held off market.
- There is now a 25 month supply of unsold homes in the U.S.
- The US housing market is NOT recovering. Prices are continuing to erode.
- 7 million foreclosures are being held off the market by banks. When they hit the market prices will fall again.
- $685 Billion in new mortgages were issued this year thru August. (Now look at the next point)
- The Fed bought $722 billion in mortgage paper thru August—in effect it backstops the whole RE market!
- Loan default rates at banks have reached an average of 14%
- Loan losses in the commercial sector are just getting started.
- Alt-A and Option ARM loans are facing a huge wave of problems as loans reset to higher payments.
- Delinquency rates are now at all time highs, and getting worse each month.
- New car sales fell 36% in September after “Cash For Clunkers” expired.
- Credit card default/delinquency rates exceed 10%
- More credit line cuts are on the way as banks get ready for new regulations.
- Personal bankruptcy filings exceeded 1.4 million in the first 9 months of 2009.
- September ‘09 bankruptcy filings were 41% higher than those in Sept ‘08.
- Debt remain catastrophically high at every level of our society—Government, States, Cities, Banks, Families and Individuals.
Posted by: Here's Your Change | October 15, 2009, 6:46 am 6:46 am
With a National debt at $57 trillion and climbing and taxes likely to go up if the Democrats get another term it’s hard to undersatnd what investors are thinking by pushing theDow to this level.
The top economist in the country are all resolute that this is somewhat of a Phantom recovery based on government stimulas and thesocialisation of bank and corporate debt. What happens when the government stops bailing everyone out and thestimulas spending stops???
Don’t get to exited America it ain’t rosie.
Posted by: Dominic | October 15, 2009, 7:05 am 7:05 am
“With a National debt at $57 trillion and climbing and taxes likely to go up if the Democrats get another term it’s hard to undersatnd what investors are thinking by pushing theDow to this level.”
————-
Yay!!! You hit the nail on the head. Leave it up to the Republicans to drive it back down to the gutter. Please, don’t let Obama and the Democrats fix it. Cut them off in 2010 before they can do any more repairs. Yeah! Don’t you understand how peaceful and prosperous the country’s been in the last eight years? Get your votes out and bring back the Republicans to finish what they’d started.
Posted by: David | October 15, 2009, 8:20 am 8:20 am
Of course it is an indicator of the economy on the mend – no one can deny businesses doing well and investors putting money into business is bad for the economy! But as mentioned in the main post, it is only one of many indicators. And the number that matters most – unemployment – is always a lagging indicator.
Posted by: jhw539 | October 15, 2009, 9:29 am 9:29 am
“With a National debt at $57 trillion and climbing and taxes likely to go up if the Democrats get another term it’s hard to undersatnd what investors are thinking by pushing theDow to this level.”
Dominic | Oct 15, 2009 7:05:34 AM
Stupid investors all looking at reality and putting their money into productive businesses. Don’t they know they need to pull it all out, buy gold and guns, and destroy the economy?!?!?
Posted by: jhw539 | October 15, 2009, 9:30 am 9:30 am
- We will need positive job creation at record breaking levels for 60 months just to break even.
Here’s Your Change | Oct 15, 2009 6:46:00 AM
Just to pick on one of your lies, since the recession started in Dec 2007, the economy has lost about 4 million jobs. Under Clinton’s higher taxes (responsible budget control) administration, 2.8 million jobs a year were made. So, we only need about 18 months of job creation equal to the average monthly creation UNDER A DEMOCRATIC ADMINISTRATION. Now, if you are looking at the Republican’s 8 years of ‘leadership,’ where taxes were cut to historically low levels on the rich ‘to stimulate the economy,’ yeah we’d need about 60 months. Because the Republican’s budget destruction (spending without taxing to pay for it) destroyed the economy. And now as a solution they propose – more tax cuts! Lets see if we can get our taxes below Mexico, and just keep putting our infrastructure on the credit card!
Posted by: jhw539 | October 15, 2009, 9:39 am 9:39 am
I love it when the media only reports half of the news. Forget the fact that the dollar is down 20% this year alone. What’s the point of having an extra $100 if a loaf of bread costs you $10 or an apple costs you $5.
The bottom line is Wall Street Fat Cats ate all the cake, and Uncle Sam took the crumbs left for the middle class and also gave that to the Wall Street La Cosa Nostra.
Please, stop insulting our intelligence!
Posted by: Matt, Washington DC | October 15, 2009, 9:17 pm 9:17 pm
People with lots of money control the stock market and could care less if you get burned or not.
Posted by: John | October 20, 2009, 12:44 am 12:44 am