Tony Blair, President of Europe?

ABC's Jean Fievet reports from London: Picture the scene at the next summit of world leaders. President Obama lines up for the traditional group photo with the representatives of the globe’s biggest economies: President Hu Jintao of China, Prime minister Yukio Hatoyama of Japan…and President Tony Blair of Europe. It just might happen. The European Union is going to get its first ever president, thanks to a treaty that comes into effect on December 1st. The idea is that the new position will allow the European Union to speak with one voice, and better project its influence around the world. It replaces the current system where the E.U. is led by a different national leader every six months. After some serious horse trading, the leaders of the 27 members of the EU are due to choose their new president on Thursday. The decision will be made behind closed doors during a special summit in Brussels. Even at this late stage, there is still no consensus on who to choose, but Tony Blair is said to be keen to get the job, and is widely seen as one of the front runners. His supporters say the former British prime minister is a well-known international figure who will bring clout to the role. It would be a remarkable comeback for the leader who was pushed from office by his own party and a disillusioned public, his reputation in Europe tarnished by the Iraq war. There are, however, a few snags. “President of Europe” sounds impressive, but in reality the E.U. treaty is vague about the role, and for now the most important decisions will continue to be made in the Council, the body made up of Europe’s elected leaders. Whoever becomes “President of the European Council”, to give the post its full title, will hardly be on equal terms with Presidents Obama and Hu. The EU’s economy may be bigger than that of the US or China, but the president of Europe will have no democratic mandate or executive powers. As for Mr Blair, he is still a very divisive figure because of the war in Iraq, and for many he comes with way too much baggage. What’s more, not everyone wants a high profile president: many would prefer a low-key, modest technocrat. So Europe may well choose the path of least resistance when it comes to choosing its first ever president. A man that most of Europe has never heard of, Belgium’s prime minister Herman Van Rompuy, is currently favourite for the role. In the European Union, compromise candidates from small countries often triumph in the end. The odds are stacked against Tony Blair. It would be quite a comeback.