Will The Jobs Be Coming Back Anytime Soon?
ABC's Stu Schutzman reports from New York: Some employment experts say yes. Even as the numbers get bleaker by the month and the phrase “jobless recovery” resounds more and more in the media, some analysts believe the bottom is near and a reversal in the jobs picture could happen soon. This would seem to some counterintuitive given all we’ve been hearing lately about employers leaning to do more with less ie reaching their productivity quotas with fewer workers. This “new normal” has been like a dagger to the heart of the American labor force — 7 million of whom have seen their jobs disappear in just the last two years. And the latest productivity number, which showed worker output up annually at an astounding rate of 9.5%, was proof-positive to many experts that employers really have learned to do more with less. So where are the green shoots in all this? “Before things get better, they have to get worse more slowly,” writes business journalist Daniel Gross in Slate, “That’s already happening. After the credit meltdown, companies prepared for Armageddon by hacking jobs indiscriminately.” They panicked and cut their workforces to the bone. Now many of them are working their workforces, those who are left, to the bone. “At a certain point,” says employment economist Lakshman Achuthan, “People will start to collapse at work.” Which is not a very good recipe for sustaining those high productivity numbers that employers covet. “Just as hamsters can run only so fast on their treadmills,” says Gross, “there are limits to productivity growth.” The bottom line, say some experts, is that another quarter of economic growth could spark the beginnings of a hiring frenzy. “There’s an outside chance,” says economist Michael Darda, “We could see job growth by the end of the year.” Not all economists are as sanguine. “Think the worst is over?” asks NYU economist Nouriel Roubini, “Wrong,” he writes in the NY Daily News. “If you are unemployed and looking for work and just waiting for the economy to turn the corner,” he writes, “You had better hunker down.” Economic forecasting, like predicting the weather, is an inexact science. Both often dead right…..until they’re not.
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There will continue to be growth in unemployment through 2012. There will be no significant recovery before 2014, if then.
The government has lost all perspective on what drives this economy. They are doing none of the things necessary to revive job growth and economic well-being.
Until they figure that out, and take some positive action to reverse the losses in jobs, there won’t be a recovery.
Posted by: Rick McDaniel | November 16, 2009, 3:05 pm 3:05 pm
That only depends upon how fast we can dump every incumbent politician that supports free trade. Get rid of the Clinton-Bush-Obama free trade train wreck, dump the H1-B and L-1 guest worker visas, reenact trade tariffs, duties, fees, and add some stiff punitive taxes on every outsourced good or service; a $5 per U.S. service call handled by an offshore call center, a 100% tariff, minimum $200 tax on foreign assembled computers, and the same for clothing, shoes, toys, pharmaceuticals, would result in a flood of jobs returning home that would end the current depression within 6 months. All we need are jobs. But, our current “representatives” are clueless fools, answering to corporations and Wall Street and not the voters. So, we have to get rid of them. Start with the “leadership” of both parties.
Posted by: Mike Brooks | November 16, 2009, 3:34 pm 3:34 pm
Do we make stuff people want to buy? If we do and we make it cheap enough to be competitive in the global marketplace, then we can grow industries and produce jobs.
Posted by: Huh | November 16, 2009, 3:34 pm 3:34 pm
huh..nice try but labor costs here are too high and obama and the seiu will come after you for even saying to try to cut their inflated wages to be more competitive. In addition if the cap and trade costs are voted in you can forget about ever competing with China. Rick is correct no employers are going to hire with the potential added costs of the health care and the cap and trade bills being pushed by this cowardly president.
Posted by: jake | November 16, 2009, 3:48 pm 3:48 pm
Lets hope there are still people among us that have not forgotten the fundamentals of survival. Bad has it come, the worse is yet to be seen
Posted by: Rock | November 16, 2009, 4:01 pm 4:01 pm
I’m dying to find out what kind of a stupid Free Trade Agreement addendum we will be stuck with next. Obama is there giving the U.S.A. away to the rest of the world. He will be sure to screw us over even further. We owe China so much money now, thanks to Obama, we will never be free of Free Trade…We might as well just give the Chinese the keys to all of our United States.
Posted by: Sharon | November 16, 2009, 4:03 pm 4:03 pm
No, the jobs will not be back, if ever, or any time soon. The economy was hijacked and jobs exported out of the country. As an example, Mexico builds and exports more cars to the US than our country exports to the rest of the world. It should be remembered and realized that many of the empowered are getting very wealthy when jobs are sent to cheap labor areas of the world. The problem with this is, these people are making products which come back to this country to be sold, and the balance of payments is very out-of-balance. This cannot continue indefinitely. Our standard of living suffers dramatically; the jobs which paid decent wages to laborers no longer allow them to be consumer/buyers because the jobs are gone. There will not be enough hamburger joints to employ all those who need work. Our politicians share a great deal of the blame for our economic collapse as they protect and sponsor the interests of the exploiters. New jobs will be difficult to cultivate in an uphill battle against all the forces preventing businesses to hire and expand. Some openly fight against job creation such as Rep. P. Hoekstra who represents a state with the nation’s highest unemployment for four years running. He voted against TARP1 and the stimulus program. Sad but very true.
Posted by: clever bob | November 16, 2009, 4:26 pm 4:26 pm
The American Revolution is coming again.Taxation without representation
started it last time too.
Posted by: j doe | November 16, 2009, 4:55 pm 4:55 pm
Unless Americans are willing to pay higher prices for products and services currently provided from other countries, the jobs will not return here.
As well, the mass discrepancy between quality of life in America and the rest of the world is leveling right now, which can do nothing except lower the standard of living in the United States.
If quality of life here is to remain high, we must provide opportunity for all Americans to earn wages – which means opening new markets for products and services.
Posted by: michelle | November 16, 2009, 5:11 pm 5:11 pm
Carter Redux?
Posted by: Todd | November 16, 2009, 5:25 pm 5:25 pm
Most of Asia is more highly educated than ourselves and especially within the technological fields…Japan graduates most of the scientists of the world…and as we complain of our jobs being outsourced which is definitely huge part of the problem, we continue to rank in the bottom half as far as graduating people educated enough to enter the 21st century work force…our premiere universities are losing status,however, those on foreign visas graduating from the benefit of our best colleges, they return to their native lands…how can we be the number one innovators of the world if we do not have the intellectual prowess?
Posted by: Phallon | November 16, 2009, 6:12 pm 6:12 pm
Rick McDaniel is soooo right!
Posted by: ejo | November 16, 2009, 6:41 pm 6:41 pm
This article was written in our local Seattle paper, the the gist of his comments was this: “I don’t see any sign our leaders understand the foolishness of free trade,”.. “The low-cost provider of goods and services will dominate the globe, because they have slave labor”. Translation:
“China will have everything”
Posted by: Sharon | November 16, 2009, 6:45 pm 6:45 pm
More good News ! Cap & Trade will collect over 1.5 trillion in taxes alone, on the fuel penality provision alone. Guess where the money will eventually wind up ? Not here in the US.
We owe it to the 3rd world nations for being kept down and exploited. The hell with our confused and deterioted
situation here; Killer defict; Jobs dried up; State goverments upside down;
NONE of the cap & Trade money will stay here, but the taxes, taxes, taxes will
hasten the colapse, and our entry into the relm of a 2nd world nation.
Was this the CHANGE you envisioned??
Posted by: YWD | November 16, 2009, 6:59 pm 6:59 pm
I have never bought anything that is not American made if at all possible. anybody who is out of work or is worried about being laid off should consider doing the same, in just one or two years we could regain our country and our economy if all americans would buy made in america. Then you would not bough to the japanese emperor he would come on his knees again.od bless America.
Posted by: earl | November 16, 2009, 7:10 pm 7:10 pm
earl – don’t worry, those of us who are out of work are not buying anything at al…
Posted by: zann | November 16, 2009, 7:50 pm 7:50 pm
ohbummer.
Posted by: gatorsnc81 | November 16, 2009, 8:29 pm 8:29 pm
Instead of dreary, compulsory National Health Care with fines and jail time, what we need is happy, compulsory National Shopping with fines and jail time for all citizens over the age of three who fail to shop their daily quotas. Even illegal aliens could participate. Poor persons and the homeless would be given government shopping stamps – it gets the homeless off the street and into the malls.
It would end the recession quickly and all politicians supporting such a law are assured of plentiful contributions from Chinese bus boys.
Posted by: jeff200 | November 16, 2009, 8:34 pm 8:34 pm
Americans should make chop sticks and sell them to the chinese.
Posted by: myopinion | November 16, 2009, 8:48 pm 8:48 pm
jake – What do you mean nice try? I was just stating the obvious, and everything you said I agree with.
Posted by: Huh | November 16, 2009, 8:52 pm 8:52 pm
We are so screwed…But there is always hope, maybe someone will invent something that the Chinese need. Not more chop sticks..hahaha…You gotta laugh about it otherwise we’ll be crying in the streets…
Posted by: Sharon | November 16, 2009, 11:07 pm 11:07 pm
We all talk of how sad it is to be without jobs, but still we don’t have them. Is anything at all getting better? I think not. I intend to pick every politian that I vote for, and vote for the opposotion. Fire the bums!
Posted by: junjohn | November 16, 2009, 11:53 pm 11:53 pm
Just a minute there, rock! America was already given away before Obama set foot on the whitehouse lawn…or didn’t you notice??? Where were you in late 2007…hiding your head in the sand??
Posted by: junjohn | November 16, 2009, 11:57 pm 11:57 pm
Just one wome thing…a story that I love to repeat. In 1988 a truck driver was talking to a small group of men, and he stated that if America kept going it it’s current direction, it would have all the stability of a third world nation. It seems that he must have had a good chrystal ball, because we are there!The truck driver was referring to NAFTA
Posted by: junjohn | November 17, 2009, 12:00 am 12:00 am
As the owner of a small Internet Writing Service and registered in government retirement and having worked for 43 years for others starting at 13 I guess I will never have to look for work again. Who knows, most of my 403B plan is gone and rolled out to a stock broker so I cold pick individual securities. My grown kids are self sufficient so that is good. You know I was going over our budget with my wife and even though I have done well, prices are going up like pigs to the trough and our property taxes have doubled. Now there is health care uncertainty. I can give younger people a tip about the job market, you will get a job if you have a “personal sphere of influence” That means being a steady and active and helpful member of say a political group, a charitable organization a community group, a fraternal order. The higher ups will help you and lets face it anonymous networking is bland and frustrating. Resumes are pieces of paper that people often hide behind. There are jobs out there right now, tons of them. Lower your standards and strive to work your way up. Remember, half a loaf is better than none.
Posted by: Jay Adler | November 17, 2009, 2:10 am 2:10 am
Obviously, the Global Economy experiment has suffered a fatal heart attack. I’m surprised the NEW American Revolution hasn’t already begun. It’s time to take back America from the international corporations and restore this country to its former economic glory and strength. If something doesn’t happen soon then we will lose this nation to the extremists who are plotting Lord knows what forms of government. “…a republic, if you can keep it,” said Benjamin Franklin when asked what they had been doing.
Posted by: hueygunner | November 17, 2009, 7:23 am 7:23 am
It seems Obama was too distracted plotting his take over of the World — starting with the United States — to pay any attention to what his teacher was saying in his Economics 101 class.
Posted by: hueygunner | November 17, 2009, 7:34 am 7:34 am
All I know is I wouldn’t hold my breath to see any jobs with this guy in charge. He doesn’t do anything:
Posted by: JoeDee | November 17, 2009, 7:51 am 7:51 am
No the jobs will not come back goverment will be hiring only. We must vote the dummies out all of them. some of these old fools in their 80s and 90s need to retire and spend time with their kids who are in their 60s.
Posted by: DANIEL | November 17, 2009, 8:03 am 8:03 am
Tax breaks for the wealthy so they will hire more people than they need. Oh! That’s right, that’s how the country got in this condition in the first place.
Posted by: rightbehind | November 17, 2009, 8:10 am 8:10 am
“the phrase “jobless recovery” resounds more and more in the media”
Really? The economists have been saying that’s what they expect since Bush was still in office.
Sensationalism at its best! The background for this page should be yellow, since this is a perfect example of yellow journalism!
Posted by: The_Mick | November 17, 2009, 10:37 am 10:37 am
Politicians have been in the process of giving away the store for years. Remember Bill and Hil and their “big village” which is pol speak for global economy. Sure it’s a big ol’ world out there with lots of consumers, BUT, you have to be selling something they all want and can afford to pay for. This pretty much pushes the USA out of the picture. Lose a $20 an hour job these days and the government can’t for the life of them figure out why $10 an hour won’t feed your kids the same as the $20 an hour job you lost!!. Then there are morons like Gore that are pushing us even closer to the abyss with more and more taxes so the poor third world countries can get a fair shake. I’ve read that in order for the third world to come up to a good standard of living WE as developed countries must give up some of what we have, more pol speak for live on less. It’s going to hell and what a nice handbasket it’s in.
Posted by: Alan | November 17, 2009, 10:57 am 10:57 am
Hi All,
First, I am tired of hearing from Roubini because he called this one right.
Second, I would say the following:
- The job market is highly segmented, the unemployment rate for college grads actually DECLINED last month.
- I think if you look at the Dept. of Labor numbers, you are seeing a lot of out of work construction workers, auto workers and similar beset industries.
- At least construction has often been a boom and bust area – not that it is good – but it is not new.
- Like some of the comments – and as an ex-economist – I too am tired of hearing about free trade. How do you compete against a billion Chinese – 800 million of which are still poor and underemployed and will work for next to nothing? Add to that India and a few other countries. Basically the wage rate for low-skilled (let alone some skilled work) work is a couple of dollars a day.
- An awful example is that credit card firms outsource their collections operators to India – so they can call the out of work Americans and ask for what they have left.
- We still have industries that can be made efficient enough to build here – even autos. It is just getting harder. And frankly both labor and management screwed up there.
- Do you know that even the Mexicans can’t compete with China and are losing jobs to them?
- I don’t know the answer, but we can’t have an economy where everyone is selling mortgages to each other.
- Our savings rate seems to have increased – about time – but at the wrong time. We need consumer demand.
- The banks took excessive risk, rewarded themselves, got bailed out, and are still doing the rational thing -rationing credit to small businesses who are on the edge.
- I am also tired of hearing the Republicans complain about stimulus. Was Bush concerned about deficits? Every economist with 2 brain cells knows it works to some degree. Unfortunately, Obama back-loaded a lot of it and was doing some social policy with it.
- So – when will the jobs come back? I think it breaks down by industry and region. Yes – some will not come back. You can’t graduated from High School and become middle class by working at GM anymore. The shock to this system was bad – and consumers and businesses are cautious absent some noticable demand. So – I don’t know the answer to that question either.
- I do think we have to educate our population. Did you know India and China each have more people in college than us and they all know or learn English? Great for us – especially if we are too lazy to learn Mandirin.
- Why don’t we do what we did in the past. Throw money at space – at least we got Tang. Seriously – we have to build new industries, or supplement the good ones: Pharma, Aviation, we should have a “space program” for energy, fix the damn healthcare industry before it eats us, work on recombinant DNA, continue to work on computerization, Internet, new materials etc. Hate to say it, but we have enough English majors – though we need them too.
Ah, but smarter people than me will figure it out. I’m going to have a beer and watch the History Channel showing the Russians winning at Stalingrad for the next hour. You know – that’s the great thing about the History Channel – you can watch the Germans losing at Stalingrad at 10am, then turn the set back on at 9pm and the Germans are still losing at Stalingrad.
Have a good one.
Posted by: Paul | November 17, 2009, 2:48 pm 2:48 pm
As an accountant, I have found that businesses need to do more with less. I can’t hire more people right now, but I leverage technology to meet the needs of managing my organization. I use JobTraQ to manage tasks. My customers have found it very useful to manage their internal organizations.
There are a variety of technologies out there that will help us do more with less and get through this bad economic climate.
Posted by: NewWave87 | November 17, 2009, 3:45 pm 3:45 pm
I have been unemployed since Feb. 2009. I am 51 years old. I have no income and am single. I babysit for my fifteen month old grandson, so my daughter and son-in-law can work. They cannot afford daycare on what they make. They are expecting another child in April. They are working very hard to make their lives better. I am so proud of them. But, I am losing the war here. I do not qualify for any government assistance except health care. I have applied to over 300 jobs in the time that I have been out of work. I have gotten one interview from those, some replies of no thanks, and a lot of nothing! I realize that no one wants to hire a woman my age since they believe that I am too close too retirement,(that will never happen! I have nothing saved) and that I will want too much pay. I am a college educated woman who is doing all she can to try and put a little bit of food on my table (thank God, for my family!) and to keep the heat on this winter. I has been very difficult. My car was repossesed this past summer since I could not keep up the payments. I live in a somewhat rural area with no public transportation. This severely limits my ability to get a job. My children drive me everywhere. I don’t know where I will end up. I have all but given up looking anymore. I can’t physically do the jobs that younger workers can, I can’t get to a job, and I am worried! If you think its hard out there, try walking in my shoes. I am facing a depressing season of no christmas presents for anyone in my family, not even my grandson. I cannot tell you how this breaks my heart. No one is helping me and there doesn’t seem to be any help out there for older workers like me. My story is long, I know, and there is more, but, I think I have stated my position and am slowly giving up hope that anything will change for me, or workers like me, in the near future. Sad really…..
Posted by: Janet Miller | November 17, 2009, 7:17 pm 7:17 pm