Hurricane Irene: A Date With New York City?

It's just been announced that all five New York City-area airports will close to inbound flights tomorrow at noon. All NYC public transit will also close at noon; the last time the NYC subway shut down was 9/11. And for the first time ever, New York has declared a mandatory evacuation of waterfront neighborhoods that could be flood zones. What's your prediction for Irene? Will it be a direct hit on New York City?