DATELINE HARTFORD

Will try to blog all day about today’s Lieberman-Lamont showdown, what may essentially be a party purge of a moderate Democrat.

Am at the Goodwin Hotel — where Lieberman celebrated his 1994 victory, though it’s tonight the probable site of his political SHIVAH CALL.

And am headed to a Lieberman firefighters breakfast in Stratford in a few minutes, after which we’ll try to meet up with Lamont… A few thoughts about the race before I wedge myself into the rental car…

1) Lieberman is serious about running as an independent should he lose today.

Team Lieberman knows the pressure will be strong to bow out if Lieberman loses today, as seems likely. But one could argue that the general election offers a much more hospitable terrain — Connecticut has more Independents than Democrats or Republicans; Lieberman will be able to discuss national security issues that aren’t much use in a Democratic primary so dominated by antiwar liberals; Lieberman will have a few months to re-do what has been a fairly underwhelming re-election effort.

2) What to anticipate today?

It looks as though CBS is doing exit polling, and who knows how the bloggosphere will react if that information ever leaks out. Generally, about 220,000 folks are anticipated at the polls, and the basic thinking is if more than that show up, Lieberman might eke this out, if fewer, it’s Lamont’s.

3) Why is this happening?

There are myriad reasons as to why Joe Lieberman finds himself in this hot cup of matzah ball soup, many having to do with his moderate-to-conservative style and voting record on some issues, his support of the war in Iraq, and the way his campaign was run.

That said, do not discount the anti-incumbency feeling in the air — according to a brand news ABC News poll, opposition to incumbents is the strongest it’s been since the year of the Republican revolution, 1994. There’s a reason why men like Reps. Tom DeLay, R-Texas, and Bob Ney, R-Ohio, are dropping out before their races — they know that otherwise they’d be clobbered. And while 60% of the country thinks we’re on the "wrong track," that number is astronomically larger when Democratic primary voters in Connecticut are polled.

4) What happens if Lieberman loses and runs as an independent?

You should expect anyone who has any hopes to run for President in 2008 to appear immediately with Ned Lamont. They want to earn loyalty-to-the-party points and many are terrified of the political muscle flexing of the internet activists — the so-called "netroots." I wouldn’t be surprised if Sen. John Kerry, D-MA, who has no love for Lieberman, has already booked his flight to Hartford to congratulate Lamont.

Then there will be some interesting dramas. How far out do the Clintons go for Lamont? They’ll endorse him — but will they appear for him? What about Al Gore, who hasn’t spoken to Lieberman since he endorsed Howard Dean in 2004 without first giving his former 2000 running mate a heads up? If he hopes to run, would it be a good idea to further be the champion of the netroots, or will appearing with Lamont merely remind people of how he screwed over Lieberman, who had said he wouldn’t run for president in 2004 if Gore chose to run? (A promise John Edwards has not made about 2008 and John Kerry, one might add).

Then there’s the whole question of how much the Democratic establishment wants to focus on defeating Lieberman when they have a House and Senate they may want to try to recapture…

So what will happen today? I would guess Lieberman is going to lose, and then announces he’s running as an independent. But one never knows.

More later –
jt