Poll Cats
EmailObviously as the political battles are decided state-by-state, national polls aren’t necessarily as significant as what will happen this week in, say, Michigan, Nevada, and South Carolina.
Still, they can be seen as a measure of a candidate’s national appeal. Even with the questions we all now have about polls, post-New Hampshire.
Anyway, three new national polls show some interesting developments.
ABC News shows (click HERE) that Sens. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, and Barack Obama, D-Illinois, are essentially tied nationally, with Clinton having the slight edge, 42-37. Former Sen. John Edwards, D-NC, is locked down at 11 percent.
On the Republican side, nothing succeeds like success for Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., who leads the pack with 28%, followed by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 20%, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 19%, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani at 15%, and former Sen. Fred Thompson, R-Tenn., is at 8%.
The New York Times/CBS News poll (click HERE) — with its high 14% of undecided voters — has Clinton far and away in the led, with 42%, Obama with 27%, Edwards at 11%.
McCain — up 26 points from the last time the NYT/CBS did this poll, in December, before Iowa or New Hampshire — leads the GOP at 33 percent, followed by Huckabee with 18, Giuliani at 10, Romney 8, Thompson 8.
The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll (click HERE) shows a similar leap for McCain, up 21 points since last month to lead the pack with 34%, Huckabee with 21, Giuliani with 18, Romney 14, Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, with 5%, and Rep. Duncan Hunter, R-Calif., with 1 percentage point.
Clinton on the Democrats’ side leads significantly with 49% (up nine points since their last poll, in December), Obama 36 (up 6), Edwards 12, Rep. Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio, has 1 percent.
So what are we to conclude? New Hampshire was key for McCain — and he needs to follow it up with more victories. Romney is having a tough time taking his act national. Giuliani’s poll numbers are sinking (even worse for him — a Quinnipiac poll out today shows him in a four-way tie for first in Florida, with McCain, Huckabee, and Romney.)
And despite a crazy month, Clinton remains nationally quite strong.
– jpt
Santorum: Money Will Not Defeat Obama, Ideas Will 
Rick Santorum's Full Speech at CPAC 2012
Mr and Mrs. Obama and their race card will be flushed down the drain after SC. “Ain’t no black people in Iowa” Mrs. Obama says.
Posted by: Geevill | January 14, 2008, 9:41 am 9:41 am
With McCain, it’s about momentum. But momentum swings wildly, as demonstrated with the precipitous rise and fall of Dean. If Guiliani takes FLA and NJ, Guiliani could just as easily take the momentum and run away with it on Super Tuesday.
With Clinton, who knows. She could plummet tomorrow. Her support runs wide, but not deep.
Posted by: cordelia525 | January 14, 2008, 10:16 am 10:16 am
Wow. This guy doesn’t even mention Ron Paul??!!! Forget the fact that there is currently a media blackout on him. How can you ignore the fact that he makes the most money, has the biggest internet following and is getting more support from Iraq war veterans and military personel than all of the other republican candidates combined!? are you kidding me?
Posted by: arch | January 14, 2008, 11:19 am 11:19 am
McCain is ahead because no one wants to vote for Huckabee. If Mitt wins in Michigan, I expect him to make a big jump in Florida and elsewhere as the other “credible” frontrunner, who happens to have better and more solutions than anyone.
Healthcare, immigration, balancing the budget, family values… Mitt Romney alone can give us all of these, and everyone knows it.
Posted by: Jed | January 14, 2008, 1:01 pm 1:01 pm
Hi Jake,
How can any of these polls quantify the young-adult vote? I don’t think they can. I submit that this demographic, in conjunction with independents, will be the deciding factor in this election. The candidate who can most effectively connect to these voters will have the White House. Sen. Obama appears to be the one candidate who has a message that resonates with this block. When I see other candidates co-oping his message I think that they recognize his success and are trying to: 1)Get some of that action for themselves and 2)Negate his message by saying “Me, too!”
The problem for Sen.Clinton is that she rolled over and voted for the war in Iraq because she was not willing to stand up and say “I love my country and this war is wrong.” Either, she did not have the intestinal fortitude to do this or she really did believe the war was the right thing to do. I think she was afraid of the political blow-back of being labeled a liberal sympathetic to terrorists or un-American. What kind of leadership is that? As a voter, how do I know it won’t happen again when the stakes are even higher?
Mrs. Clinton has made an issue of Mr. Obama’s inexperience. I do not consider 8 years as the First Lady to be preparation for being President. It just does not translate. Do we then look forward to Laura Bush running in 2012? I don’t think so. There is no job that can prepare one to be President (duh?) Also, I’m not sure the Republicans would work with her anyway if she was elected. Then where are we? We are right back where we began.
Obama’s youthful indiscretions do not matter. Nor does it matter that he is a person of color. It doesn’t matter that Mrs.Clinton is a woman. These things are only interesting for about a second and not at all relevant to the problems this country faces.
We have a war that is going bad. We have lost the world PR battle against terrorism and Al Qaeda, and we can’t get Bin Laden. We’re not living in a safer world. Our allies have lost faith in our ability to lead the free world. The dollar is down. The stock market is down. The Real Estate market has crashed. Fuel prices are the highest ever and rising. And then there’s global warming which no one knows how to handle.
The middle-class is tired of funding wars, unchecked illegal immigration, record corporate profits, etc., in exchange for a lower quality of life, inflation, recession, the destruction of our planet and less opportunity for our children. Why is that surprising to some? It seems so clear when you live outside of D.C.
Also, I haven’t even mentioned the GOP because they are soooo screwed to the point of irrelevancy. The war in Iraq and the inability to bring Bin Laden before a court or a coroner is like an anchor tide around their necks. There is no escape for them. It will be at least 2 terms before we see the likes of them again. Thank you, Mr.Bush.
It’s time for the Bush family and the Clinton family to step down from public service. Also, let’s give a “heads up” to the members of the House and the Senate. You made a lot of lobbyist and corporations rich with tax breaks and unfair labor practice. Your job was to make the market a level playing field. You failed miserably. Many “Mom & Pops” could not have been driven out of business without your efforts. You’re heads are next on the chopping block.
-Chris from everywhere in America but D.C.
p.s. I have nothing personal against any of the candidates. I’m sure outside the world of politics they are very nice people. Especially Sen.Clinton.
Posted by: Chris | January 14, 2008, 2:02 pm 2:02 pm
Do polls impede the democratic process? I think so. We need more in depth coverage of the issues and less media hype. Remember WHAT we are voting for: A COMMANDER IN CHIEF AND A WORLD LEADER, not a”good-old-boy” who is quick with one liners or an angry man who is hell bent to get Osama Bin Laden.
If you are a Republican, vote for a TRUE REPUBLICAN. Both ROMNEY and THOMPSON are true Republicans who will uphold our constitution and protect our freedoms. Romney is strongest on the economy, so if that is what you care about, vote for him. Vote your own mind, your own intelligence, regardless of the polls!
Posted by: NFaye | January 14, 2008, 11:09 pm 11:09 pm
It is rapidly becoming more and more apparent that we Americans have lost our way and rather than unite as a Republic that embraces democratic principles, we are opting to take this nation down the path to becoming a Socialist State. Both Barack Hussein Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton are the personafication of Socialism, first cousin to Communism. Both of them are far beyond left-wing liberalism. They are the banner carriers for the perceived “Nanny State” and we will all be the beneficiaries of this new and sad to say, broken nation.
On the Democratic side, this election is more akin to a high school popularity contest, and, any outside observer could only conclude that this is a race for high school student council president. Do we like the black kid or are we going to vote for the white girl? It appears that the Democrats with all of their heady and intellectual public discourse, along with the enlightened media crowd, are just in a quandry as to who the most popular kid in the school really is?
In this quest to make history in 2008, Americans are caught up in the ferver of either breaking the “glass ceiling” barrier or “bridging the great racial divide”; both noble endeavors and certainly long overdue. But, in our haste to make history, we may well be on our way to bringing this country to her knees and our potential enemies are chomping at the bit, anxious to see who the next student council president will be.
Posted by: Larkin G. Mead | January 15, 2008, 5:52 am 5:52 am