Religion, Change Are Dynamics in Iowa Race

ABC News’ Gary Langer, Director of Polling, reports:  Preliminary Entrance Poll results out of Iowa show religion is playing a heavy role in the Republican race, where evangelicals account for six in 10 voters and heavily favor Huckabee, by well over a 2-1 margin over Romney, 45 percent to 19 percent. Among the remaining, non-evangelical Republican voters, only about one in seven support Huckabee, and Romney leads easily – 33 percent, to McCain’s 18 percent, Thompson’s 16, and Huckabee at 13 percent.

In the Democratic race, "change" is a huge factor – 51 percent say the most important attribute to them is the candidate who can bring needed change – more than twice the size of the nearest group, and Obama wins them by 2-1, with 51 percent support in this group to 20 percent for Edwards, 19 percent for Clinton. But Clinton comes back strongly on experience, winning those who call this the most important candidate characteristic with 49 percent, to 8 percent for Edwards and 4 for Obama (Richardson, 20). Edwards does well on empathy; among those who say it matters most, he’s got 45 percent support, compared to 23 percent for Clinton and Obama alike.

There’s a vast generation gap in the Democratic race, with younger voters very broadly for Obama while Clinton does best by far among seniors (who account for about a third of Democratic caucus-goers). Among those age 17 to 29 years old (just over a fifth of the electorate), Obama gets a smashing 57 percent support, to Edwards 13 percent and Clinton’s 11 percent. Among seniors, by contrast, it’s Clinton 45 percent, Edwards 22, Obama 17.

Clinton, surprisingly, does not lead among women (they account for 56 percent, and are dividing between her and Obama). Obama has a very sizable lead among independents, and Clinton is weak in this group – about a fifth of the caucus-goers, Obama’s winning 40 percent of independents, Edwards 25 percent, Clinton just 14 percent. And Clinton and Obama are dividing voters from union households, nearly a quarter of all caucus goers.