Gallup Analysis: Clinton Has Swing State Advantage

By Nitya

May 28, 2008 11:51am

An analysis by Lydia Saad at Gallup of Gallup Poll Daily trial heats for the general election over the past two weeks seems to re-affirm Sen. Hillary Clinton’s argument that she is likelier to beat Sen. John McCain than is Sen. Barack Obama.

"Clinton is currently running ahead of McCain in the 20 states where she has prevailed in the popular vote," Saad writes, "while Obama is tied with McCain in those same states. Thus, at this stage in the race (before the general-election campaigns have fully engaged), there is some support for her argument that her primary states indicate she would be stronger than Obama in the general election.

"The same cannot be said for Obama in the 28 states and D.C. where he prevailed in the popular vote. As of now, in those states, he is performing no better than Clinton is in general-election trial heats versus McCain. Thus, the principle of greater primary strength translating into greater general-election strength — while apparently operative for the states Clinton has won — does not seem to apply at the moment to states Obama has won."

Are the Democrats about to nominate their weaker candidate? What say you?

- jpt

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