In an interview with Brian Williams on NBC, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, said that he may declare victory on May 20 after winning the Oregon primary (assuming he does) — even though he will not have reached the magic number of 2,205 delegates.
“That will be an important day," Obama said. "If at that point we have the majority of pledged delegates, which is possible, then I think we can make a pretty strong claim that we’ve got the most runs and it’s the ninth inning and we’ve won.”
Except of course that this isn’t a fight for a majority of pledged delegates. It’s a fight for the majority of total delegates — which includes superdelegates. And the number is 2,025. Not the majority of pledged delegates — the majority of total delegates.
So to use a football analogy: Up by 14, Obama has the ball at Clinton’s 10 yard line with 30 seconds left. Clinton has been arguing with the ref to include touchdowns and field goals that they ruled illegitimate. Clinton has been trying to convince the refs to go into overtime, and she wants to move the goal posts into the stands.
Now Obama wants the game to end early, and he wants the goal posts moved to the 10-yard line.
This strikes me as possibly a huge miscalculation.
UPDATE: The Obama campaign says that despite Obama saying on May 20 he may make the claim that his team has the most runs and "we’ve won," he was not talking about winning the nomination, but rather winning an "important metric" — pledged delegates.