Rove’s Latest Electoral Maps Have Clinton Stronger Than Obama Against McCain

By Saira Anees

May 19, 2008 1:48pm

Electoral maps put together by the consulting firm helmed by Karl Rove, and obtained by ABC News, show Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, to be a stronger general election candidate in a hypothetical general election match-up against Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., than Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois.

Click HERE to see the maps and charts from Karl Rove & Co., obtained by ABC News.

States are allocated in Rove’s exercise based on an average of public polls, which many pollsters would tell you is a rather unscientific way to look at the data.

Still, for political junkies the information is interesting.

In the first map from Karl Rove & Co., McCain leads Obama in a hypothetical match-up, winning states totaling 238 electoral votes to Obama’s 221 electoral votes.

There are 538 total electoral votes. At least 270 are needed to win the presidency.

The trend is positive for Obama — he is up 14 electoral votes from May 11, and McCain is down 13 electoral votes.

The map shows McCain winning Florida, New Hampshire, West Virginia and Wisconsin. States with 79 electoral votes — Connecticut, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, and Virginia — are toss-ups, within a margin of error of +/- 3 points.

In the hypothetical Clinton-McCain match-up, Clinton leads with 259 electoral votes to McCain’s 206 electoral votes.

States totaling 73 electoral votes — Connecticut, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, and New Mexico — too close to call.

Clinton, too, is trending upwards, with a gain of 11 electoral votes since May 11.

The big differences between Clinton and Obama, beyond the her larger number:

Clinton would make competitive some states that Obama would lose — such as Missouri and New Hampshire — and she would win others outright, such as Arkansas, Florida, Ohio and West Virginia.

On the other hand, McCain would handily win beat Clinton in some states that Obama made competitive, such as Colorado, North Dakota, and Virginia. Some states that Obama would win, such as Minnesota and Nebraska — Clinton would lose to McCain.

Occasionally this election cycle the electoral maps of Karl Rove & Co. have reared their heads. In March, McCain adviser Mark McKinnon was spotted holding some of these maps, as reported by Texas Monthly.

- jpt

UPDATE: Clinton referenced this blog post (kinda) in a campaign appearance today.

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