HRC by the Numbers
EmailHere's a summary of data points past and present we've put on hand for our coverage of Hillary Clinton's speech tonight:
-Seven in 10 Democrats (including Democratic leaning-independents) who preferred Clinton for the nomination have lined up behind Obama – but that leaves three in 10 for McCain, or undecided.
-Fewer former Clinton supporters, 43 percent, say they’ll definitely support Obama; though fewer still, 12 percent, are definitely for McCain. A net of 45 percent are what we call movable voters, which is more than the level of movables overall, 27 percent.
-Clinton’s favorable rating – the most basic measure of a public figure’s popularity – is 52 percent among all registered voters, compared with Obama’s 62 percent (and McCain’s 59). Clinton is comparatively weak in the center: Compared with Obama, she’s seen favorably by 18 points fewer independents and 15 points fewer moderates.
-Clinton and Obama both are broadly popular among Democrats alone (excluding independents), with 78 and 83 percent favorability. But 61 percent of Democrats have a “strongly” favorable view of Obama, better than Clinton’s 48 percent.
-Clinton’s favorable rating has recovered from 44 percent in mid-April during the primaries. In that poll 54 percent saw her unfavorably, a record high. Her favorability peaked at 64 percent in 1998 during the Lewinsky scandal.
-In an ABC/Post poll last December, before the primaries, 52 percent of leaned Democrats preferred Clinton for the nomination, vs. 23 percent for Obama. A month later, after Iowa and New Hampshire, she’d dropped to 41 percent support nationally, and Obama jumped to 39 percent. In our latest poll, 42 percent of leaned Democrats said they would have preferred Clinton for the nomination, vs. 55 percent for Obama.
-Across the Democratic primaries, per our exit polls. (Note, this excludes the caucuses, except Iowa and Nevada):
Clinton won women by 52-43 percent. (Obama won men by 50-43 percent.)
Clinton won whites by 55-39 percent and Hispanics by 61-35 percent.
Clinton won seniors by 59-34 percent. (Obama won under-30s by 58-38.)
Clinton won whites who lack a college degree by 62-31 percent. (College-educated whites split 48-47 percent.)
Clinton won voters who cited the economy as their top issue by 51-44 percent; it was the top issue by a wide margin.
Clinton won Democratic voters focused mainly on experience by 91-6 percent. But Obama won those who cared most about the candidate who can best “bring needed change,” by 68-29 percent, and change was the top attribute by a wide margin.
(Note, as I mentioned yesterday – primary vote is not necessarily indicative of general election vote – different electorate, different dynamic.)
-Among Clinton’s image problems: Last April, in the midst of the primaries, 58 percent of Americans did not see her as honest and trustworthy.
-In a poll we did in June, 46 percent of leaned Democrats named her as their preference for vice president. At the same time, among all Americans, essentially as many said having her on the ticket would make them more likely to vote for McCain (22 percent) as for Obama (23 percent). The rest said it wouldn't make a difference.
-Click here for a chart of Clinton’s career favorability, 1992 to present – plenty of ups and downs.
Santorum Clarifies Concerns on Women in Combat 
Gulf of Mexico to Become Gulf of America?
BO is a loser period and that it the inevitable!
Posted by: rockthebleachers | August 26, 2008, 1:21 pm 1:21 pm
BO is a loser & that is the inevitable! Again for those who didn’t see it the first time!
Posted by: rockthebleachers | August 26, 2008, 1:26 pm 1:26 pm
McCain is the establishments pick. They will PR him into the White House, just like with Carter, Regan, Bush and the rest of the sorry lot. Obama won’t be given a chance. They don’t want a “people’s President”, they want a lackey, hack, yes man. (Like Biden? McCain!!! PLEASE folks wake up, your will don’t matter and it never did!)
Posted by: argh! | August 26, 2008, 1:28 pm 1:28 pm
Nat , do you really think your foul statement about Hillary is going to get her supporters to vote for Obama?
This is more than about party; this is country before party. Does the DNC really think they could put any buffoon on top of the ticket, and all the constiuents will blindly vote?
Obama is a fraud, and dangerous for America, period. That’s why he is doing so horribly in polls, in a year when the Dems should be well ahead by now.
This Dem is voting for McCain. Country before party.
Posted by: decentAmerican | August 26, 2008, 1:29 pm 1:29 pm
Why is Obama refusing to give us policy specifics?
Why are we still confused about his stand on abortion rights?
Why all the cover up, dishonesty, concealing of his voting record??
WHO IS BARACK OBAMA? NO ONE KNOWS TO THIS DAY
Posted by: JA | August 26, 2008, 1:37 pm 1:37 pm
If they vote for Mc Cain over Obama because of Hilly they are not thepeople they pretend to be.This Clinton has gone on long enough get over it SHE LOST ,It is her big event of the year and she is sucking all she can out of it.She is nothing but a sore looser who blames everything but the right person HERSELF…….
Posted by: indp voter | August 26, 2008, 1:42 pm 1:42 pm
I could NEVER vote for that fraud! Hillary OR Mccain !!
Posted by: brigitte | August 26, 2008, 1:44 pm 1:44 pm
In spite of the at best, ambiguous statement 43% of Clinton “supporters” supporting Obama, the 7 out of 10 or 70% of those who preferred Clinton supporting Obama indicates a clear unity among voters. The remaining 30% is likely the more conservative of the former Clinton supporters who would have gone over to McCain anyway. I don’t see the stats as indicating any significant Hillary Clinton split among the Dem voters.
Posted by: kat | August 26, 2008, 1:46 pm 1:46 pm
Kat, you’re living in Dream Land. I’m a moderate Democrat who has NEVER voted Republican in my entire life, for national, state or local office. For the first time I will not vote for the Democrat. I will vote Ralph Nader, or sit out the election. If, in the days before the election, I think Obama has a chance of winning, I will cast my vote for McCain, while voting Democratic on the rest of the ballot. Call me a Republican troll, if you like. You know I’m not. You’re trying to convince yourself, not the people reading this.
Posted by: Nina Foster | August 26, 2008, 1:57 pm 1:57 pm
Gallup poll from today, McCain 2 points ahead! Also, Rasmussen and CNN poll shows a tie. All 3 polls were taken after the Biden annoucement.
So, there was a VP bump, but someone forgot to tell the O that it was supposed to be in the other direction!!!
LOL! Dems going down the sewer, shame on you all for pushing the worst candidate in presidential history down our throats.
Posted by: decentAmerican | August 26, 2008, 1:57 pm 1:57 pm
The convention hasn’t even started and the race is over. Clinton has two mouths or more and has tanked the Democratic Party, and herself along with it.
They might as well pack up the bags, stop spending the money, and return it to their supporters. It is truely the end of Democratic Party.
Posted by: Thinking | August 26, 2008, 2:06 pm 2:06 pm
Emily’s List Poll has Obama up by 12% with women voters. You can bet your last dollar that we WILL be voting Obama, and we WILL be a force to be reckoned with in Nov.
Posted by: Trish | August 26, 2008, 2:08 pm 2:08 pm
Gallup for the first time after June has McCain 2 points above Obama. Sinking, Obama Sinking.
Posted by: amy | August 26, 2008, 2:12 pm 2:12 pm
In your poll (8/22/2008) question #23, you asked: If Obama chooses [NAME] as his vice presidential running mate, would that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely, or wouldn’t it make any difference in your vote?
32% said Hillary Clinton as VP would make them more likely to vote for Obama while 13% said Joe Biden would make them more likely.
19% points is a big number between Clinton and Biden as VP.
Posted by: Angel | August 26, 2008, 2:14 pm 2:14 pm
Gallup has McCain at 46% and Obama at 44%. Oh how the arrogant have fallen.
Hillary Clinton remains a highly popular figure among Democrats, with an 80% favorable rating. Three in four Democrats would like to see her run for president again and be a major-party spokesperson over the next four years.
Democrat for McCain ’08
Posted by: AlbertMike | August 26, 2008, 2:39 pm 2:39 pm
JA
maybe you should stop watching fox news and tune into the democratic convention….
all of your questions woudl have been answered. they did a lot of stuff on the obamas and their lives,
perhaps you can tune in tonight and learn about policy differences
or you can refuse to watch or read anything about obama so you can continue to claim that htere is no substance
Posted by: bhrandon | August 26, 2008, 2:50 pm 2:50 pm
Hillary gave a great speech tonight. Obama made a big mistake by not choosing Hillary Clinton for VP. He just lost the election I am know voting for Mcain 08. NO to Obama 08 Mcain country first.
Posted by: chris | August 26, 2008, 11:48 pm 11:48 pm
Country first, party second. I’ve been a 30 year Democrat who has never voted Republican. I will be doing so for the first time come this Nov. I will never support that fraud Obama and will not support the Democrat again. I’m officially an independent from this day on. Hillary for 2012 and McCain for 2008.
Posted by: Country_First | August 27, 2008, 12:35 am 12:35 am
People who are saying they will defect to McShrub because Hillary isn’t the other option obviously don’t care about the bigger issues, and from where I stand don’t care about the country or the impact of their voting decision on the world. After all, voting for McCain is voting for war against anybody that man loses his temper with which would ultimately lead to a global war with self-destructive consequences for America. It’s one thing to go after Al-Qaida and anyone to initiates conflict, it’s quite another to eagerly seek conflict with other sovereign states up to and including those that have large nuclear aresenals. Of course, that’s what you can expect of someone who has feverishly read For Whom The Bell Tolls as almost a guidebook for framing together his character.
Posted by: PalatinePup | August 27, 2008, 11:17 am 11:17 am
Obama will win.
Posted by: Anita | August 27, 2008, 2:21 pm 2:21 pm
I was amazed to see cool, calm Charlie Gibson who I changed over to watch my evening news (with Brian Williams being the tank for Obama and a Hillary hater), be so condescending, scornful and looking down on Sarah while he interviewed her. Sarah gave very direct and substantive good answers to every single question she was asked.
My question tonight is WHY was not Obama asked these type of questions on foreign affairs, his role specifically his achievements as (1) a Community Leader (2) State Legislator (3)Senator – Does anyone have an answer to any piece of legislation that was introduced by Obama and was an achievement? I know the housing project done with Ayers went bankrupt as did the school program for Chicago. Besides voting “presnent” can any anchor from ABC, NBC, MSNBC, CNN, Donna Brazil, Campbell Brown, Barbara Walters and her posse, tell the people of America what it is that Obama DID in these positions. Fair is fair, and if Sarah who is number two on the ticket gets asked these questions, then so should Obama have been, or should still be asked.
Voting for Obama means that when Putin or Iran throw some threats our way, Obama will go into his LENGTHY rehetorics, pat Putin and Iran on their knees, try to TALK HIS WAY out, by which time the incident will be over.
As Sarah said “you cannot blink” – be decisive like McCain and Palin. Not just a talker, but walk the talk.
Posted by: Saradipinty | September 13, 2008, 12:07 am 12:07 am