The Evangelical Vote
EmailJohn McCain and Barack Obama’s visits with megachurch minister Rick Warren tomorrow raise key questions about evangelicals: what they think, how they vote – and whether or not Obama has a good shot at winning a substantial share of their support.
The answer to that last question: Almost certainly not. But getting there is a trip worth taking.
First the definition: In our political analyses we define “evangelicals” as evangelical white Protestants. We leave out evangelical African-Americans and white Catholics because their political identity is far less apt to be informed by religious belief. Evangelical white Protestants, to an almost unique degree in this country, mix the two.
Evangelical white Protestants account for about two in 10 Americans, with lopsided voting patterns that give them clout – as in 1994, when evangelicals helped the Republican Party gain control of Congress for the first time in 40 years.
Evangelicals aren’t remotely a swing group, but a core Republican one. In 2006, as the GOP lost Congress in a broad anti-Republican surge, 70 percent of white evangelicals bucked the tide and voted Republican, vs. 28 percent for Democrats. In 2004, 78 percent supported George W. Bush, vs. 21 percent for John Kerry.
Before we get to current vote preferences, consider even more basic attitudes. In our most recent ABC News/Washington Post poll evangelical white Protestants were 28 points more likely than other Americans to identify themselves as Republicans (47 vs. 19 percent) and 27 points more likely to be conservatives (57 vs. 30 percent).
Sixty percent of evangelicals say the war in Iraq was worth fighting, one of the few groups in which a majority holds that view. Fifty-four percent approve of George W. Bush’s job performance; just 23 percent of other Americans agree.
Seven in 10 call “strength and experience” in the next president more important than “a new direction and new ideas,” again among the highest of any group. Sixty-two percent say McCain shares their values; among all other Americans just 44 percent say the same. Just 36 percent say Obama shares their values. Among other Americans, it’s 61 percent.
Sixty-eight percent of evangelical white Protestants say abortion should be illegal in all or most cases; among other Americans, it's 39 percent. Seventy-one percent of evangelicals oppose gay civil unions, vs. 37 percent of other adults.
These are enormous differences.
The gap’s less pronounced, but still present, on other issues. On the environment, evangelical white Protestants are less apt than other Americans to see global warming as very serious (26 percent vs. 40 percent), to say it’s personally important to them (35 percent vs. 48 percent) or to say the government should be doing more about it (46 percent vs. 64 percent).
In some cases majorities of evangelicals have taken perhaps unexpected views. In a poll we did last year 57 percent of evangelical white Protestants supported stem-cell research, despite opposition from leaders like Warren. (Support was higher among non-evangelicals, 70 percent.) And 57 percent of evangelicals support allowing military service by homosexuals who’ve publicly declared their sexual orientation; among non-evangelicals, it’s 79 percent.
One place where evangelicals don’t look markedly different from other Americans is in their issue priorities. They’re concerned most strongly about gas prices, the Iraq war, terrorism and the economy; also – more so than others – about government ethics. Just under three in 10 rate abortion and gay civil unions as “extremely important” in their vote – more than others (17 percent), but fewer than you might think. As with other Americans, the candidates’ choices for vice president ranks last in importance to evangelicals.
McCain, famously, has had his own problems with evangelicals since he gave a speech in 2000 identifying Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell as “agents of intolerance.” In that speech McCain said: “The political tactics of division and slander are not our values. They are corrupting influences on religion and politics and those who practice them in the name of religion or in the name of the Republican Party or in the name of America shame our faith, our party and our country.”
McCain won a third of evangelical voters in this year’s Republican primaries (second to Mike Huckabee), vs. 49 percent of non-evangelicals.
And their current vote preference? In our latest data, among registered voters, 25 percent of evangelical white Protestants support Obama, quite near Kerry’s margin in 2004. Sixty-seven percent favor McCain – one of his single best groups, albeit 11 points below Bush’s level four years ago.
While that comparison to Bush may give Obama some hope, on basic political measures the gap between evangelical white Protestants and Obama is a far wider and deeper than it is between evangelicals and McCain. Obama’s real best hope, and McCain’s greatest challenge, is probably not that an unusual number of evangelicals will vote Democratic in November – but rather that they’ll just stay home.
Santorum: Money Will Not Defeat Obama, Ideas Will 
Rick Santorum's Full Speech at CPAC 2012
This man should not be on the ballot let alone meeting with the evangelical. He has deceived the American public, the Illinois bar, the Supreme Court and so forth. On the forms they ask have you ever gone by a former name and Barack Obama stated NO. This is just not true.
Big question is why isn’t the press, the media, those that vetted Mr. Obama letting this charade continue. What has happened to “truth and justice”?
Posted by: Mike | August 15, 2008, 9:34 am 9:34 am
This analysis left out the fact that McSame is willing to chose a pro-choice VP, and the second point is there is a only one difference between McSame and WBush, he is not liked by evangelicals as WBush is. This analysis is biased again because one sided.
Posted by: BKMC | August 15, 2008, 9:40 am 9:40 am
Senator McCain is going to have to explain to the large numbers of well-organized Evangelical voters why he would consider a pro-abortion running mate. If he selects a pro-life running mate he may recapture some (but certainly not all) of the Evangelical votes and will lose many female voters. Mr. McCain has honed a double edged sword on the abortion issue that may turn out to be a fatal political blunder – he should have kept his mouth shut on what his potential running mates views on abortion could be. Anyone else feel this way too?
Posted by: SickofGOPcorruption | August 15, 2008, 12:54 pm 12:54 pm
Ron Paul should get all the evangelical’s votes. After all he delivers babies instead of advocating their demise. He is a strong believer in Christianity’s Golden Rule as it applies to all things including foreign policy. He is an ardent supporter of the Just War Theory of Christianity. He has not sold his soul to special interests to fill his own coffers. He hasn’t cheated on his wife, and he is a true Christian family man. The evangelicals were idiots for not supporting him in greater numbers. This also is true for the country in general.
Posted by: Ben Straub | August 15, 2008, 1:05 pm 1:05 pm
Spoozle: It isn’t all in a name, although I must admit the name Ron Paul is a bit simplistic. He is the one candidate that doesn’t take money from special interests which means he can legislate on behalf of the American citizens and not a select few. He returns a portion of his salary every year to the treasury claiming that it is too much. He has turned down the congressional pension plan, saying that it shouldn’t be a burden on taxpayers. He is a doctor, not a lawyer, and has delivered over 4000 babies. He is the premier protector of civil liberties in the congress. He is also the loan voter on many bills that go against the constitution. He has never voted against an unbalanced budget. He is against the drug war which makes sense considering that most drug use is now concentrated around prescription drug abuse. He is for more local control on education, abortion, etc. I have been following him for a couple of years now, and I have been most impressed. His voting record is impeccable, and no other politician can even come close. He even predicted the Russian invasion of Georgie on Bill Moyers 6 years ago. Check him out and spread the work. Most Americans are very ignorant and partisan.
Posted by: antenian | August 15, 2008, 1:57 pm 1:57 pm
I don’t get it. Obama is a socialist who believes in homosexual marriage and abortion. Why would an evangelical vote for him? It doesn’t make sense to even ask the question.
Posted by: Sue | August 15, 2008, 2:12 pm 2:12 pm
Sue: An evangelical would vote for him because McCain votes in sending our children to war, degrading women and adultery. The lesser of the evils I suppose.
Posted by: Spoozle MaGillachutey | August 15, 2008, 2:40 pm 2:40 pm
The evangelical right wing, and all of the other hypocritical christians do not speak for me nor God. I believe everyone has a choice even God gives people a choice. Obama can’t win for loosing. Your scare tactics will not work, He will be President of the United States. Not because of his race, but because America is sick & tired of the republicans and there Voodoo economics.
Posted by: anita graham | August 15, 2008, 4:47 pm 4:47 pm
RE: Mike
So what does this prove? His stepfather used his surname to enroll him in kindergarten? And that he preferred “barry” to “barack?” Who wouldn’t?
Let’s all take a deep breath and try to focus on substantial issues, mmkay?
Posted by: bob | August 15, 2008, 4:49 pm 4:49 pm
WE DON’T NEED OVERPAID CELEBRITIES TO TELL US HOW TO VOTE — ESPECIALLY THOSE FEW ELITIST SNOBS LIVING IN EUROPE.
Obama’s historical speech is now defined by ‘how you throw your ‘TYPICAL WHITE’ grandmother under the bus’. Apparently he will say anything to win and, it was sad to watch him trying to use race to get back in this race.
I’m disappointed to see him as just another ‘TYPICAL’ politician. He used very poor judgment with ties to too many shady characters. He lied to all American people when the truth would have been better. Did he stay in this church to get the votes of the 8,000 members? He is who he is, but it is what it is!
Hillary was the better candidate. She helped Obama get his Senate seat — then he stabbed her in the back.
McCAIN in November!
Posted by: NO-OBAMA | August 15, 2008, 5:23 pm 5:23 pm
Oboma is the man for president. People need to relize the true danger is McCain. I thin Oboma race has alot to do with people not wanting him for president. And to keep a black man out of the white house they would rather vote for McCain but you will only be hurting your self in the long run.
Posted by: AKRON, OHIO OBOMA SUPPORTER | August 15, 2008, 6:13 pm 6:13 pm
Akron – How would keeping a socialist out of the white house hurt anyone? Socialism destroys countries.
Posted by: Bernice | August 15, 2008, 6:16 pm 6:16 pm
Anita – You don’t need to listen to the evangelical right wing, just read your bible. God does give us free will – and how we use that free will determines where we will spend eternity. “But the cowardly, the unbelieving, the vile, the murderers, the sexually immoral, those who practice magic arts, the idolaters and all liars—their place will be in the fiery lake of burning sulfur. This is the second death.” Revelation 21:8
Posted by: Nancy | August 15, 2008, 6:24 pm 6:24 pm
Well its 44 to 44% now, (Gallop Poll) so why do you think the GOP is fearing we will lose? hell we are gaining everyday and Obama has stalled..and you keep saying the convention is going to open Obama up? hell with that circus you best be hoping he does not lose 10%
Posted by: NOBAMA NO WAY | August 15, 2008, 7:20 pm 7:20 pm
And now Obama pandering to Christans, but oh thats right Obama is a Christian…yeah right..and so is Jeriamah Wright
Posted by: NOBAMA NO WAY | August 15, 2008, 7:28 pm 7:28 pm
Believing or not believing alot of bronze age myths does’nt change who I’d vote for. I want someone who is up to the job, regardless. Jesus speaks very well for himself. He doesn’t need a politician to reafirm anything.
Posted by: mikewolf9 | August 15, 2008, 10:53 pm 10:53 pm
Any one professing to be a CHRISTIAN and beleiving in the word of God cannot beleive that taking a life under the guise of a womans right to choose. You can’t have it both ways.
Posted by: jar | August 16, 2008, 10:39 am 10:39 am
Jar, you say that anyone taking a life cannot be a Christian’ eh, what about an unjust war, where we are sending our young men and women to be killed? Would Christ go for that, a war based on a lie. The one question I ask of you jar, would you be willing to adopat these unwanted babies or help the woman who has been raped or worse? Who is the real killer here?
Posted by: David K. SteeleWhirlWind | August 16, 2008, 1:29 pm 1:29 pm
If McCain seeks a pro abortion VP, and Obama seeks an anti abortion VP, doesn’t that cancel out each othe and make them both the same?
Posted by: johnnyappleseed61 | August 16, 2008, 7:22 pm 7:22 pm
And, if there is separation of church and state, and the white evangelicals identify with the right side of politics, doesn’t that mean they shouldn’t vote on the one hand, or if they do choose to vote, should not have their churches be tax exempt?
Posted by: johnnyappleseed61 | August 16, 2008, 7:27 pm 7:27 pm
McCain DEFINITELY won this forum tonight! Actually, John McCain just won the Presidency!
Posted by: Will | August 16, 2008, 10:38 pm 10:38 pm
I think they both did well tonight.
McCain was direct, clear and concise and Obama was intelligent, thoughtful, and humble.
But its obvious that McCain will get most of the evangelical votes because of his stance on abortion and gay marriage, no surprise there.
Posted by: Kathy | August 17, 2008, 12:26 am 12:26 am
All of you who called yourselves Christians, Why not act like one. Pro-choice is a good thing, that does not mean you like abortion. Jesus Christ always let the door open you know btw good and evil, He tell you the truth and you make your own choice. And because you are pro-life, that does not mean you dis-like abortion. God can do and use any body He wants to use so that His name will be glorified. I know that God will use Obama to a peaceful end and the world will be more at peace.
Posted by: Rufi | August 17, 2008, 8:44 am 8:44 am
Obama’s biggest problem he should have spoke up how can the Evangelicals vote for the Republican’s and, especially, for Bush when he lied and schemed to get us into Iraq. It shows you how hypocritical their base is. They will vote for Bush who kills and knived us into Iraq. I find many of these people don’t take responsibility for their actions and they are under the delusion they are forgiven for everything even when they continue the same horrible behavior. Some of these so called religious people are the most disrespectful people to GOD in their own hypocritical ways.
Posted by: Mike | August 17, 2008, 12:10 pm 12:10 pm
Rather than making the candidates of both parties court their flock, it is time the Evangelicals start their own party and nominate a candidate who reflects all of their views. If the US is in agreement, that candidate will be elected. The current situation has the Evangelicals more or less holding each party’s candidate captive with their potential votes as ransom. This leverage that they apply every election year is how they win their concesstions from the candidates. They know themselves that their extremist, conservative views are not is step with the majority of Americans which is why they will continue to bully candidates from each party rather than running their own.
Posted by: Fetus and Me | August 18, 2008, 12:56 am 12:56 am
Since Obama began pandering to all of the different groups in this country in an effort to get all of the votes, his lead has dropped from 15% to a dead heat. I have more respect for someone who basically sticks to their guns, no matter what their views, instead of trying to get the vote by kissing the backsides of whoever they are trying to impress at the time. By the same token, I believe these evangelicals and other special interest groups are just trying to grab their fifteen minutes. If a person has any intelligence about them at all, then they should be able to listen to the candidates and make up their own mind about who to vote for.
Posted by: Melanie | August 18, 2008, 3:35 am 3:35 am
even the preacher that put on this FORUM LIED!!!!!!!!. HOW can you really tell who is real if you don’t know the BIBLE FOR YOURSELF.You can get your tongue to say anything. just like the preacher said that Mccain was in a room where he could not hear the questions!!!!!lies!lies!LIES
Posted by: NARDINE CANTRELL | August 18, 2008, 1:04 pm 1:04 pm
There is no national religion, and no one is in any position to say who is and isn’t a better Christian.
McCain is just like any of our former Republican candidates. He will tell, and has told — Americans whatever it takes to get him into office; the ends will justify the means, and then the American public will be back to square one. We saw it with Reagan, we saw it with Bush Sr. we saw it with Bush Jr., and now we see it with McCain.
When will people wake up and see through the ad hominem attacks and Rovean tactics? When will people ask themselves what McCain, like these former Republican presidents, have ACTUALLY done for our country, other than leave us with an astronomical national debt and a senseless, endless war? Why is being a POW in a war glorified? Why is war glorified?
Perhaps you don’t believe in socialized medicine, but how do you justify the killing of innocent Iraqi citizens? Really, is that something that Jesus would condone? Doesn’t an eye for an eye make everyone blind in the end?
McCain has consistently mislead the American public on Obama’s alleged positions, including taxes and the economy, and has flipflopped on more issues than I’d like to type. Just look at his statements on the current state of our economy. Perhaps, for him, it’s good, but for the rest of us, it certainly is not.
Posted by: MRose | August 19, 2008, 8:14 pm 8:14 pm
Where will the truth start? McCain agreed to abide by the guidelines; however, even his answers proved that he knew the questions before hand, his spokesman admitted the was in in the “Cone of Silence.” As you view the interview with Pastor Rick Warren, you must conclude that McCain is still lying because he answered Pastor Warren’s question before he even asked it. OMG, can we trust McCain’s intregrity? Now he’s lying to the man of God. Where does it end? Weigh in people.
Posted by: Ronald | August 20, 2008, 12:40 am 12:40 am