Tightness
EmailWe’re looking today at the latest polls – there’s been a bunch out this week. Whether the race has tightened gets a “probably-a-little” from us. But while it is tight, it’s been tight. More important is why, and how the campaigns are attacking it.
I've previously explored the reasons Obama is not doing better despite his advantage on personal qualities, most domestic issues and the damaged GOP brand. In sum, his experience and readiness are in doubt; the "change" for which he stands is not well-enough defined; and this is more a center-right than a center-left country, with half again as many conservatives as liberals. McCain, despite other deficits, holds the experience and steady-hand-in-troubled-times cards. As noted yesterday, worry about a new cold war can only help him.
In parsing the polls one factor to keep in mind is whether results are given among registered voters or likely voters. Obama does best among young adults, but they're less likely to vote, so he tends to do less well among likely voters. This is not a change in attitudes, but simply a change in the group being evaluated.
Quinnipiac’s latest result among likely voters (+5 Obama) essentially matches ours among LVs back in mid-July (+3 Obama). On the other hand, Gallup’s +1, LA Times/Bloomberg’s +2 and Pew’s +3 among registered voters could move as far as a slight McCain edge were they reported among LVs. (LV polls can differ based on their assumption of who’s an LV.) LAT’s result is tighter than its Obama lead in June; Pew’s data have tightened incrementally since June; Gallup’s daily number has been winking anywhere between Obama +8 and an absolute dead heat for months, but has been quite close steadily the last week.
Some people advocate averaging polls. You can do that, but to us it's like mixing champagne, Coke and turpentine. Hardly palatable.
Not to predict the future, anyone not looking at a tight race this summer has been watching the wrong movie. Reiterating, our own last result among likely voters, in mid-July, was 49-46, Obama-McCain. That is tight. So is this.
We’ll see whether the conventions break it open, either way.
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Rick Santorum's Full Speech at CPAC 2012
Obama sinking… Media worried…McCain Up by 5.. even though Media campaigning for Obama… Its Over people are waking up. the empty suit that talks the talks but can’t walk the walk is finished.. I predicted 2 months ago that the Media would over cover Obama and people would get sick of it. Race baiting by the Obama and news Media is backfiring!!!
Posted by: Hilly-Billy | August 20, 2008, 11:47 am 11:47 am
The bonehead phony keeps making boneheaded mistakes. Look what he is fishing with his vp announcement. Do you trust a phony like this?
Posted by: Olbermn3 | August 20, 2008, 11:58 am 11:58 am
All this time I thought that Obama was playing it wrong by refusing to debate, as it makes him look like a coward to refuse to address the issues openly.
After his Saddleback showing, I now understand why he did this. McCain had an outstanding performance, Obama a fair to poor one (very uneven). I think McCain is going to bounce in the polls after that showing.
But the question remains, is McCain peaking too soon?
Posted by: JA | August 20, 2008, 12:01 pm 12:01 pm
After Hillary dropped out, Obama was supposed to get the double digit bump, after his world tour, he was supposed to get the bump, after this convention he will have to get a bump. In a no brainer Dem. year…..he cannot close the gap. I don’t care if he pick Hillary as his VP (and I’m a Hillary supporter) MY VOTE IS WITH SENATOR JOHN SYDNEY McCAIN III…..COUNTRY FIRST!
In scarey global times, we can’t afford the newbie/affirmative action candidate, NO MATTER WHO HIS VP CHOICE!
Posted by: Debra | August 20, 2008, 12:26 pm 12:26 pm
Senator John Rove McCain should be ashamed of himself. The White House will have to be fumigated for fleas after the dogs he’s been lying with. God help the country if we have to deal with four more years of Bush policies.
Posted by: William | August 21, 2008, 9:57 am 9:57 am
The real answer to how to read the polls lies in the fact that alot of people are voting “against” Obama rather than voting “for” McCain. If you will do anything to keep Obama out of the White House and there is only one option, you take that option. McCain is clearly the lesser of two evils. Obama has nothing to offer this country. The DNC shot themselves in the foot with this one.
Posted by: Another Dem For McCain | August 22, 2008, 1:42 pm 1:42 pm
clearly McCain is showing some cognitive dysfunction…Czechoslovakia was disbanded in 1993, he can’t remember how many houses he owns, he can’t tell a shiite from a sunni. Some 72 year olds are physically qualified to lead a large corporation, but most of them have the intellectual reserves to make up for the natural loss of brain cells. McCain was never very bright (near the bottom of his college class) and he doesn’t have many neurons left to lose. be scared!
Posted by: Gerontologist at large | August 22, 2008, 3:34 pm 3:34 pm
His comment that he “doesn’t use computers” give credence to the fact that he is not very adaptable..
Posted by: Gerontologist at large | August 22, 2008, 3:37 pm 3:37 pm
I agree with their comments – Debra, JA, Hilly-Billy. After their showing at the Saddleback Church, everybody could agree that Mr. McCain must be the new President of the United States of America, not Mr. Obama.
I think the Democratic Party made a big mistake to choose him for a candidate. They supposed to consider that the President of the USA must be the most important leader of the world.
Posted by: hjs | August 22, 2008, 7:01 pm 7:01 pm
Barack Obama peaked in Feb 2008 …and have been sliding since then …
After Saddleback, Georgia and now Biden … this change thing is changing on him …
…. I can the powers in the corridors in the DEMS circle, regrouping themselves around Clintons for 2012.
Sorry Richardson, Pelosi, and company …you are on the wrond side of the fence.
Posted by: Toast for Breakfast | August 23, 2008, 3:41 am 3:41 am
I got it wrong, I thought Hillary Clinton would get the nomination because of such strong female support and then be President. As I look at the numbers read the polls, and see how close it is. It’s super clear the next president will be decided by Hillary voters. And as a strong Hillary Clinton supporter I’m not sure who I will vote for. I just don’t know. It’s funny how the Obama supporters have done some of the worst kind of trash talking about the former first lady and now want us to back Obama. Obama, be afraid be very afraid. The first one to reach those voters will be the next President.
Posted by: Dan | August 24, 2008, 7:39 pm 7:39 pm
outstanding performance?
He can not stop talking about prison – that’s all positive he did. The rest of the life – enjoying comfort of Cindy’s money and empty talks . The major sense – war – war- war. If You have sons and ready to give them away for McWar’s wars in nowhere – stay there.
(by the next year he will forget – where he wanted top place the war, maybe his name.. maybe something else) That is really “outstanding” candidate with Outstanding lack of brains.
Posted by: linda,Fl | August 25, 2008, 6:14 am 6:14 am
The GOP is just playing the unpreparedness of some american to accept an african american for president. It’s unfortunatethat they play in a sublimal way this card. They do not have any message,because they do not accomplish anything for the 8 years they are in power. Mccain is a flawed candidate whose imperfections are hidden by a lot of noise made by his carlroved style camp. They will be uncovered by the debates where he will lose his temper and continue to mispeak about his foreign affairs and economy credentials. Main Stream Media, don’t forget to ask the right questions.
Posted by: Joseph | August 26, 2008, 2:23 am 2:23 am
Why do some people automatically cry ‘racist’ just because other people plan to vote against Obama? Is it not possible that we simply do not agree with his liberal policies which include plans to put an even greater tax-load on anyone that earns their own living so he can further increase the leisurely-lifestyle of people who don’t want to work?
Posted by: W.L. | August 30, 2008, 12:55 am 12:55 am