McCain’s Delicate Dance
EmailGeorge W. Bush’s virtual appearance at the Republican National Convention tonight underscores a prime challenge for John McCain: to weave a safe path between Republicans who still approve of the president and the big majority of Americans who don’t.
Bush’s unpopularity is approaching a thing of legend. Anywhere from 62 to 69 percent of Americans have disapproved of his job performance for 20 months straight. He hasn’t received majority approval in any of our polls since January 2005 – 43 months ago. Both are unsurpassed in presidential approval polling since its start 70 years ago.
The president’s problem is McCain’s in this sense: Fifty-seven percent of registered voters in our pre-convention poll said they thought McCain would lead the country in the same direction as Bush. That is hardly a popular thought, since currently just 30 percent of adults approve of Bush’s job performance, while 66 percent disapprove. (And “strong” disapprovers outnumber strong approvers by 4-1.)
The answer for McCain is to steer away – as, among other things, with his surprise v.p. pick, Sarah Palin, whose office is 3,344 highway miles from 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. The task is to do so subtly: In our latest ABC/Post poll, 60 percent of Republicans continued to approve of Bush’s job performance, even while just 31 percent of independents and 11 percent of Democrats agreed. Granted, that’s Bush’s worst among Republicans on record. But it’s still majority approval in his – and McCain’s – home party.
The road for McCain is equally tricky on one of the proximate causes of Bush’s troubles, the war in Iraq. Sixty-three percent of Americans say it was not worth fighting, and this has been a majority for more than three and a half years. But, as with Bush approval, Republicans again differ: Sixty-three percent of Republicans say the war was worth it. (Just 35 percent of independents and 17 percent of Democrats agree.) McCain’s best approach, in terms of appealing to the center, may be not to argue that the war was a good idea, but that he’s better qualified to see it through.
Then there’s the sticky business of the economy, the other chief cause of the president’s unpopularity. Bush suggested in his weekly radio address Saturday that it’s on the mend (“There have been some recent signs that our economy is beginning to improve"), citing growth in second-quarter GDP.
Danger. I reported last week on why GDP is probably not a good yardstick in this case. The political reality is that consumer confidence is near its record low, and nearly eight in 10 Americans say the country’s seriously off on the wrong track – including 55 percent of Republicans, growing to 80 percent of independents and 92 percent of Democrats.
Promoting improved GDP is precisely the trap into which Bush’s father so neatly fell 16 years ago. Rather than seconding Bush’s suggestion that it’s improving, McCain might do better by trying to chip away at Barack Obama’s 11-point lead in trust to handle it.
Beyond this dance, something else on display at the Republican convention this week will be the fundamental differences between the parties – in how they think, and even in how they look. In this year’s primaries, African-Americans accounted for just 2 percent of Republican voters, vs. 19 percent (about their usual share) of Democrats. Women accounted for 47 percent of Republican voters, vs. 57 percent in Democratic primaries. Half as many Hispanics voted in GOP primaries (6 percent) as in Democratic primaries (12 percent). Given all these, white men accounted for 48 percent of Republican primary voters, compared with just 28 percent of Democrats.
Then there’s basic political philosophy. In this year’s primaries 63 percent of Republican voters identified themselves as conservatives, vs. just 13 percent of Democrats. (Forty-seven percent of Democrats said they were liberals, compared with 9 percent of GOP voters.) If, comparing this week to last, Republicans and Democrats seem different – well, on many measures, they are.
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almost 70% of americans dont approve of bush and his job. i am with the majority of americans who believe that mccain is more of the same. regardless of putting a woman on the ticket.
Posted by: sk8boardgrind | September 3, 2008, 10:34 pm 10:34 pm
You are exactly right Terri! Everyone has it in their heads that since Bush is Republican that the next Republican president will follow in his footsteps. I don’t know why its so hard for the American people to realize that most of Congress is ran by the Democrats and look where it is getting us! They are wanting full control over every single person here in America and if we don’t do something to change and take charge thats exactly whats going to happen! McCain and Palin are exactly the type of people we need to run this country! Obama is a fake. Everything that man does is for a show. I am scared to death of where he will take this country and other people should be too!
Posted by: lisa | September 4, 2008, 11:10 am 11:10 am
wow sexism plays are roll why do you think Hillary Clinton didn’t get picked?
Ofcourse it’s about picking a women it’s obvious why the Obama camp refused Hillary Clinton because she is a women they all made there own judgment and that’s fine only God can judge or the courts system. Unless it says in the Bible a women can’t run read on.
Posted by: Gloria | September 4, 2008, 11:50 am 11:50 am
The one and only “thing” that stopped Hillary’s nomination was Michelle Obama.. You better believe it.
Posted by: bombem | September 4, 2008, 3:01 pm 3:01 pm
I am a 50 year old mother of 3 that has a full time career and three very successful children. I have been democrat for most of my life and now will vote McCain & Palin because of the way the democratic party treated Hillary and because the Obama’s are really winning through race and pulpit!
Posted by: D. Rae | September 4, 2008, 7:25 pm 7:25 pm
Much in the way British Petroleum changed their marketing brand for the US to Beyond Petroleum. The Republicans are trying to RE-Brand the elephant into a cow, but it still has the Bush brand. All that Oil in Alaska that used to be American Oil, the Brit’s own it. If the American people ever figure out that this BRAND and LOGO driven culture is why we cannot build anything to put in a box or why the ice box has no food in it then maybe we can tell these guys,
ENOUGH. They might pull it off as a people we are not as smart as a 5th grader. To continue on with welfare for the wealthy the Elephant will for the next few months, MOO.
Posted by: John | September 5, 2008, 2:54 am 2:54 am
Its a marketing scam allright!
BP wants to ship gas and oil to China out of Alaska to cut down on costs. Not only have we lost jobs to foreign nations but in the past ten years most of our resources and companies have been sold off to Europeans, next they want to sell off the interstate freeways, Better drink Sam Adams as they just sold off Budweiser to Belgium and E-BAY it’s French!
Posted by: Ross | September 5, 2008, 3:05 am 3:05 am
“Character”
John McCain says this election is about character – and he‘s right.
In the 2000 presidential race the Bush campaign – led by Karl Rove – viciously attacked John McCain’s wife and child – they said his wife was a drug addict and that the child he and his wife adopted from an orphanage was actually his illegitimate Black daughter. On election night, his wife was in tears.
Back then, McCain was disgusted. He said there was “a special place in hell” for rumormongers like these people. He made a promise to his family and to his supporters that he would never run a dirty campaign like that. Never.
But early this year John McCain hired Charlie Condon, the very same man who was behind those vicious smears to run his South Carolina campaign. And then several weeks ago he brought Steven Schmidt – leading protégé of Karl Rove and master of the political hit job – on board to be his campaign manager and write the talking points for the new negative campaign against Barak Obama.
It’s sad to watch, McCain’s willingness to humiliate himself by hiring the same gang of people who horribly insulted him and his family. It shows that he has become so desperate to win this election that he is willing to sacrifice his principles and his personal honor in order to do it
Let’s face it. A real man would have said to those people – “Get the hell out of my office before I throw you out” the minute they walked in. A person would not have to be a tough guy like John Wayne to say that. A gentle, decent man of character would have told them the same thing.
But what did John McCain say about Bush’s dirty politics gang?
He said: “I had to get over it … it was a long time ago”
It’s sad, genuinely sad
.
John McCain – he’s no longer the man he used to be.
Posted by: ml_ramirez626 | September 5, 2008, 3:22 am 3:22 am
McCain and Palin, 2008!
Posted by: Mark, Toronto | September 5, 2008, 12:41 pm 12:41 pm
What I don’t understand is why Hillary supporters like bombem, the 50-year old mother of 3 successful children who posted here, would now vote for McCain/Palin just because Hillary didn’t get the Democratic nomination. I am a staunch Hillary supporter myself, because I identify with her ideals and have the utmost respect for her. But I don’t believe that Obama disrespected her. In fact, I feel that Obama has been very fair and cordial in his treatment towards Hillary and Bill. If there were nasty exchanges during the primaries, that’s just the nature of politics. At the end of the day, Obama and Hillary are both from the same camp and share the same ideals and thoughts for the future path of our country. If you believed in Hillary, you’d heed her plea to remain true to the Democrats and vote Obama. To turn around and vote Repub now is not only disloyal to Hillary and the Democrats, it’s telling the Repubs that they were right in thinking that American women voters would vote for Palin simply because she’s a woman, never mind her views or qualifications. Please … we are not that simple-minded. We women have brains, we’re going to accord our precious right to vote with careful thought and consideration to what’s best for the country and for us … we don’t vote for someone just because the candidate is a man or a woman, or white or black. To do otherwise if a travesty of our right as a citizen and a mockery of all who fought to give us this right.
Posted by: Anna | September 5, 2008, 3:29 pm 3:29 pm
bad politics- people forget John McCain was one of the Keating Five that was investigated by the Senate Ethics Committee for exercising poor judgement for his role in the largest theft in the world and US tax payers were robbed,
The S&L Scandal. the Bush family also played a role in it. Neil Bush is a thief. As far a his running mate-she can be a pitbull in lipstick all she wants.
Posted by: sandy | September 5, 2008, 3:36 pm 3:36 pm
I agree with Anna-if you were a Hillary supporter how could you stab her in the back? Does anyone really know if Hillary would have accepted the VP offer?
Posted by: sandy | September 5, 2008, 3:39 pm 3:39 pm
Sandy, Hillary would probably have accepted the VP position had it been offered, and personally, I still think an Obama-Clinton ticket would be formidable. Now, Hillary needs to get out there and campaign like crazy and hope that people understand that Palin is so extreme in her radical right-wing views, she’d be a nightmare if elected to office. McCain would quickly find that he’s got a handful with her once all the hubbub dies down. I’d predict that there’d be some really lively conversations between McCain and Palin down the road, and not in a good way. I like McCain despite his temper and one-track mind and like most everyone else in America, I admire his integrity and desire for the best for his country. But being a great soldier and faithful servant does not qualify one to be a great President. Especially when the second-in-command is a dangerous right-wing extremist. Women of America, if you value your rights, abortion and otherwise, you must do your part to ensure than Palin does not get elected.
Posted by: Anna | September 5, 2008, 3:59 pm 3:59 pm
Now that the John McCain Campaign has effectively used his time as POW to promote him as a “servant to his Country”, we as the American people should and must be able to see ALL of the records detaling HIS time as a POW….some of hear he was called the SONGBIRD after only 4 days of imprisonment and that he when thru extensive psychological torture…He continues to “shield” this records and we do not understand why…..DO YOU WANT OUR SITTING PRESIDENT TO POSSIBLY HAVE ANOTHER COUNTRY HOLDING EMBARRESSING INFO THAT CAN BE USED TO BLACKMAIL OUR PRES INTO MAYBE SENDING $$$$…..OR HELP THEM BUILD A NUKE?….THIS IS NOT ONLY A ISSUE OF PROPERLY VETTING McCAIN….IT MAY ALSO BE AN ISSUE OF NAT’L SECURITY !!!!!!!
RELEASE ALL POW RECORDS NOW !!!!!!!
Posted by: CyberWarFighter | September 6, 2008, 7:03 am 7:03 am
How do you warn people that is disappointed in the bush/cheney admin that truly McClain/Palin are worst than the same, this coming from a Independent who has voted across both Parties, I truly fear for America if these two get in office for other 4yrs, I believe if we go down this road with the Republicans it will be no turning back.
Posted by: gman | September 6, 2008, 8:56 am 8:56 am
McCain is a good man and a war hero, but his politics are too much like the same old politics of the past decade. He promises to shake up Washington, but he’s already using the same old Bush Administration scare tactics. Obama is willing to turn American ideals into a reality for the American people. He’s taken the high road throughout the campaign, and there’s no one I’d rather see in the White House.
Posted by: Ali | September 6, 2008, 11:47 am 11:47 am
It’s not that everyone is all that scared of Republicans. We are just scared of Mccain/Palin ticket who will keep the same policies as their fellow counter parts support. Mccain has admitted himself that he plans to do just that. Doesn’t anybody remember not to long ago Mccain proudly anounced that he’ll keep us in war for the next 100 years if he had too. This man and his party are war mongors and money grapping, power tripping bunch of people. They are completely one sided and don’t support Americans as they should, but they support big business and the rich. Did you see the peaceful protestors being attacked by the govermental police? They can call anyone of us terrorist if we don’t agree with them because of the Bush’s policies that he has inacted since he’s been in office, mostly in secret. Cheney say’s “SO” to American’s about how the majority feels on the war, which is to get the hell out, but he does not care, nor does Bush or Mccain. I guess we don’t want the Republicans because they don’t care about us!!!! Vote Obama 2008 if Bush doesn’t stop the elections and call for marshal law like everyone’s saying he will online. GO Obama GO!!!
Posted by: Shelia | September 6, 2008, 11:06 pm 11:06 pm
Did anyone else read that China will develope the Iraqi oil fields for $6.00 a barrel?
Posted by: white mountain | September 7, 2008, 10:23 am 10:23 am
Go Obama Go!!!! Obama/Biden hv to win this election…Mcain/Palin sound fake. Mcain/Palin will do what Bush/Cheney are doing…Our country will go down…
PLS. VOTE FOR OBAMA/BIDEN…
Posted by: Nancy62 | September 7, 2008, 4:29 pm 4:29 pm
You have got to be kidding me!!! You people are out of your mind! If you people would read up on your facts rather than listen to the left wing media you might learn something! The one that just spoke of value your rights, abortion and otherwise….? So by saying that you believe that terrorist.. you know the ones that came to our country and killed thousand of Americans, should have rights too..? Cause thats what Obama believes! I dont agree with the way Bush has handled himself in office anymore than the next, I hate the war too, I have family over in Iraq fighting for you, me and everyone else in this country to be free and safe. If Obama is elected into office this country will turn into a government controlled country as it slowly already has. Its funny your against Republicans, the one small thing you seem to forget is almost all of Congress is made up of Democrats and they are the ones that pick and choose how things go. Its going to be even worse if Obama and Biden are elcted into office. If that happens you better be ready cause this country will go to hell in a handbasket!!
Posted by: lori | September 8, 2008, 1:28 pm 1:28 pm
First Lori, Know who was in charge of the Congress until Jan. 2007. The REPUBLICANS WERE. I keep seeing these posts of people who have no idea of when the Dems took over. Not to mention, if you actually do your research you will find that the Republicans FILIBUSTERED (Look up the word if you do not understand) almost every bill the Democrats tried to put through in order to make it look like (To those less educated) that the dems were not doing their job. My God open your eyes. Secondly on experience. Here is a comparison of experience since all you Republicans think Palin is more qualified than Obama. Yes, right out of college, Obama became on organizer and gave back to his community. Your questioning his ability. Let us compare a few. While Obama was doing community organizing, Palin (one heartbeat from the presidency on a 72 year who has numerous health issues, and oh by the way 74 is the average life expectancy of a male) was a sportscaster. Does this mean we should expect her to just give us play by play and highlights of events from the White house. When Obama was a state senator for Illinois that oversaw a district with 200k people, Palin was a mayor of a town of 7k. My wife came from one that was 3500 and had one stop light. Not a big executive move,SORRY! and while Obama was in the Senate writing legislation to keep WMD’s out of the hands of rogue nations and terrorists, Palin was running Alaska. Our second smallest state, with a surplus of funds in the Budget from Oil and she (Palin) still managed to outspend every other state per capita in Earmark (special interest) tax money (mine and yours) to the tune of 750 million in a year and a half. She puts Republicans to shame with her wasteful spending. Oh and did I mention that when she was mayor of that town of 7k, she hired a lobbyist to go to Washington to acquire 25 million in earmark spending. Add to that that as mayor, Palin came into the town as mayor with the town having no debt, and left it holding a 19 million dollar debt. TELL ME WHAT KIND OF A DISASTER mccain/palin WOULD BE FOR THIS COUNTRY! OBAMA/BIDEN 08′ P.S. Four independent study groups and think tanks all show OBAMA’s economic plan being geared toward the middle class, while McCains is geared toward the rich.
Posted by: Timesup Republicans | September 8, 2008, 10:59 pm 10:59 pm
Karl Rove and his proteges are running the McCain-Palin campaign. The Bush Administration has a lot to hide including many “things” that are illegal. If the Repiblicans are elected, the illegalities will be swept under the carpet. If the Democrats are elected they will be many prosecutions and you could have a repeat of what happened to Nixon during the Watergate Scandal. Many of McCain’s campaign operatives could very well be prosecuted So, they ( Republicans) are desperate to prevent this from happening.
Posted by: Mark | September 9, 2008, 9:24 am 9:24 am
I am well aware of when the Democrats took over! But its been over a year 1/2 and like always, nothing has changed yet!! With the Democratic Party ANYTHING GOES and if Obama gets elected into office its going to be worse. Whether that be gays and lesbians getting married.. or women having abortions simply because they are quick to lay down, but too lazy to take responsibility.. In some cases I know its isnt the woman’s fault but then again its not the child’s either!! How about that healthcare he is going to make small businesses carry..? We all know how outrageous healthcare is and with the rising cost of everything else.. I see more people loosing jobs because you have to cut cost somehwhere! Thats where your outlook is wrong.. it doesnt matter the size its what you do! It goes back to what I said before.. He knows how to keep a crowd and he is a good speaker, but thats it! I know there is Republicans out there that are just as crooked and twisted as any Democrat, but the problem with you all is that you have no Christian morals!! Let me remind you, You are not GOD!! I dont care what statistics show.. He is the only one that can and will decide when anyone’s time on earth is up!
Posted by: lori | September 10, 2008, 11:50 am 11:50 am
My question in why is McCain hiding behind a women’s skirt? What does he have to hide?
Posted by: Nancy | September 14, 2008, 2:22 pm 2:22 pm
First of Lori keep God out of the elections and we might get people to talk without insulting each other. But if you insist on God being in the mix, explain how you can except McBush and Palin’s lies. If god is so important than so is the truth.As for the Dem’s controling congress what planet do you come from. If you had been following what is going on you would know it is split just about 50/50 with McBush’s buddy Liberman voting with his buddy McBush. Nothing is getting done because the Bush adminstration does not want it to. 6 veto’s all in the last year and a half, 6 more than the 5 and a half years before that when Republicans had full control. If you had been reading the news on line you would at least know what is going on in this country, because all that is reported on TV is fluff, or if you watch fox everything is slanted towards the Rep. being the only people in America who should be here.The Rep.’s main concern now is to protect Bush and his cronies, got to keep the tax cuts for those poor rich people, and with uneducated people who don’t understand the terrible condition Bush and his buddies have brought America to, the praise the lord kiss bush’s rear group will give us four more years of crap.
Posted by: judi book | September 14, 2008, 4:19 pm 4:19 pm
McCain is a hot head, Palin is a air head. I’m swinging for Obama.
Posted by: Carol s thoughts | October 2, 2008, 8:32 am 8:32 am