Battlegrounds, Reds and Blues
EmailOur latest tracking poll results underscore Barack Obama’s advantage on the electoral map – both in comparison with past years and in terms of this year’s battleground states.
In the 16 states identified by the ABC News Political Unit as battlegrounds, Obama leads John McCain by 54-43 percent among likely voters in our ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll. That’s a party switch from the last two elections: George W. Bush won these same 16 states in 2004 and 2000 alike. And in 1992 and 1996 Bill Clinton won these 16, and the White House.
Cutting it down to the eight states rated by our Political Unit as tossups this year (Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia) Obama has a 52-45 percent advantage.
The past is not predictive, and history is littered with alleged bellwethers that, like all statistical bubbles, eventually popped. But Obama’s aggregate lead in these highly contested states underscores his advantage in national polls and in states alike. (It’s noteworthy, as well, because likely voters in these battleground states are disproportionately white, compared with those in the less highly contested states – 83 percent vs. 72 percent.)
Indeed, Obama’s current 11-point advantage in the 16 battleground states is larger than the margins by which they ultimately were won in any of the last four elections – Bush by 5 points in 2004, Bush by 4 in 2000, Clinton by 6 in 1996 and Clinton by 2 in 1992.
Another comparison to past years also may be instructive. In 2004 George W. Bush won 30 “red” states by a 14-point margin overall, 57-43 percent. Today Obama and McCain are dead even – 49-49 – in those same 30 states. (This excludes Alaska, where we don’t have tracking data.) In the 2004 “blue” states, meanwhile, John Kerry won by 9 points – but Obama’s now ahead by 18 (excluding Hawaii).
It’s a similar story if we jump back to 2000: That year Bush won his red states by 12 points; now it’s essentially tied (McCain +1) in those same states. And while Al Gore won his 2000 blue states by 12 points, Obama now leads in those states – again, by an 18-point margin.
2008 Exit polls tracking Dem-Rep Obama-McCain 2004 2000 08 battleground 54-43 47-52 46-50 04 red states 49-49 43-5704 blue states 57-39 54-45 00 red states 48-49 43-5500 blue states 57-39 54-42
Gulf of Mexico to Become Gulf of America? 
Can Mitt Romney Win Conservatives Back?
The Republican voters, YPM (Young Political Majors), has been caught at voter fraud.
Polls or no polls, red state or blue, the voters will need to be careful this election as there is crooked stuff going on. CNN reports an old white man casting his vote for Obama that kept trying to record his vote as a vote for McCain. It was reported to the election official who had the man keep trying until his vote showed up as one for Obama.
Obama/Biden 08!
Posted by: Common Sense | October 22, 2008, 8:07 am 8:07 am
Posted by: Common Sense | Oct 22, 2008 8:07:28 AM
Everyone voting for Obama needs to make sure that is the way it is recorded.
Posted by: Jwench | October 22, 2008, 8:20 am 8:20 am
Mcshame need to just go lie down. Im sure hes disoriented again. All of these polls showing hes washed up are certain to take their toll on an old fella. He just is too grumpy and flustered to be POTUS and its scary to imagine his sidekick anywhere near the button to the nukes.
Posted by: Jo | October 22, 2008, 8:20 am 8:20 am
The GOP is involved in voter fraud? EGADS!!!..lol
Posted by: Jwench | October 22, 2008, 8:34 am 8:34 am
Pray for Obama! Pray for his Grandmother. Sorry John McCain you’re just too angry and to scary to be our next President.
Posted by: Lisa | October 22, 2008, 10:46 am 10:46 am
I am astonished that Obama’s margin is not MUCH larger. The McCain campaign has set an all-time record of slimey, unethical, unsupported of assertions to discredit his apponent. The American public has already experienced the damage 8 yrs of trickery; they are too smart to be swifted again.
Posted by: HisUgliness | October 22, 2008, 10:46 am 10:46 am
Kind of like the 200,000 in Ohio, and the 30,000+ illegal registrations in Florida. I look at it like the DemP being way to desperate to win. When this country is all the way in the ground to bad the distribution of wealth is going come back and bite all of us, look no further than South America to find out that’s a really bad idea.
Posted by: azson | October 22, 2008, 11:03 am 11:03 am
Democrats are kings at voter fraud.
Remember the fake registrations, 110% voter turnout, felons voting, keeping polls open even after they have closed in rest of the state.
Voter fraud synonymous is Democrats and they are masters at it.
Posted by: Greg h | October 22, 2008, 11:09 am 11:09 am
I’m not so worried about “illegal registrations” (which have by and large been caught already) as I am the consistent, persistent vote blocking by the republicans. This absolutely has to stop, and I want to see ALL media focused on this between now and election day. NOT THIS TIME, NOT AGAIN.
Posted by: Sharon Lynn Farley | October 22, 2008, 11:16 am 11:16 am
I agree Sharon, we should all remember how the republicans blocked the vote recount in Florida. They stole the election in 2000 and used OUR Supreme Court (Republican dominated) to stop the vote count. They will stoop to any tactic to retain the Presidency. It’s hard to understand that all voters don’t understand this fact.
Posted by: Rob Lee | October 22, 2008, 11:41 am 11:41 am
while the poll numbers look good for Obama, it can all change if enough people don’t vote or, as they have in the past, and continue to do this year, Republican politicians find ways to suppress the vote through fraudulent and racist means. In Philadelphia, the Republican party has sent around fliers to Black areas saying that folks with unpaid parking tickets won’t be allowed to vote – this is false. In Colorado and Indiana there are attempts to purge voter rolls for minor infractions such as not checking off a box on the registration form. This is where the danger is to our FINALLY having a lawful and fair election.
Posted by: Susan F | October 22, 2008, 12:50 pm 12:50 pm
The polls in OH and FL worry me. McCain is inching his way back in and we need to get out the vote in both those states to make sure Obama wins by a large enough EC margin to shut down any attempt to contest this election.
Keep focused! Get out and vote in Ohio and Florida for Obama/Biden!!!!!
Don’t let New Hampshire happen all over again!
Posted by: Greg in MN | October 22, 2008, 1:17 pm 1:17 pm
I’m from Ohio, and I already voted via absentee ballot for Obama.
Strange that though I went through the same process of requesting an absentee ballot four years ago, I never received one so I couldn’t vote. This time I applied months ahead of time. If you ask me, I don’t think George Bush won either of the previous two elections fairly!
EVERY Obama supporter has to vote if we want to win!!!
Posted by: Jennifer | October 22, 2008, 2:48 pm 2:48 pm
Let’s go Florida and Virginia….we’re counting on you. Your vote counts! Help us get Obama there. Obama 08
Be a part in HISTORY! Let’s show them some real numbers!!
Posted by: Tanya | October 22, 2008, 3:30 pm 3:30 pm
Ohio, be a part of HISTORY — Vote Obama
Posted by: Tanya | October 22, 2008, 3:33 pm 3:33 pm
Media needs to report the news not try to manipulate and create news
Posted by: Ben | October 22, 2008, 4:02 pm 4:02 pm
wow, when will people stop sounding so negative and pathetic?! were all americans here, what ever happened to unity in our country?! remember 911?! it seems too many people forget! its such a shame that theres so much bashing, the dems are just as guilty if not more then the reps! theres voting fraud in NJ from them, 1 guy in the news admitted to signing his name 73 times on a democratic,registration form!!! heeelloo!
wake up america, this is our country here, we need someone in the White House with experience! unfortantely, Obama will prob win, and to me its a scary thing…..
Posted by: connie | October 22, 2008, 4:30 pm 4:30 pm
Ohio. Vote for MCCAIN*PALIN. Obama is one shady character that has absolutely no experience. He’s just one smooth talker. Not to be trusted!!!
Posted by: OHIOGAL | October 22, 2008, 5:15 pm 5:15 pm
I think that a lot of good people will stay home because the news media are very liberal and have alreay annointed Obama as President. Lets remember one thing if Gore would have won his home state of Tennessee Florida would not have mattered. Shame on the media for not telling the publid how many people were polled.
Posted by: linda | October 22, 2008, 5:27 pm 5:27 pm
Okay nobody mentions that Susan Eisenhower (President Eisenhower R granddaughter) endorses Obama, William F. Buckley an ultra conservative son endorses Obama and of course Colin Powell. I guess there are some republicans that do their homework and vote with their conscience.
Posted by: toby darling | October 22, 2008, 10:06 pm 10:06 pm
go Obmama
Posted by: jen | October 22, 2008, 11:27 pm 11:27 pm
Telling a friend that the love of his life is a phony and dangerous is not likely to get him to change his mind. But it may cost you a friend. It is much the same story with true believers in Barack Obama. They have made up their minds and not only don’t want to be confused by the facts, they resent being told the facts. An e-mail from a reader mentioned trying to tell his sister why he was voting against Obama but, when he tried to argue some facts, she cut him short: “You don’t like him and I do!” she said. End of discussion. When one thinks of all the men who have put their lives on the line in battle to defend and preserve this country, it is especially painful to think that there are people living in the safety and comfort of civilian life who cannot be bothered to find out the facts about candidates before voting to put the fate of this nation, and of generations yet to come, in the hands of someone chosen because they like his words or style. Of the four people running for president and vice president on the Republican and Democratic tickets, the one we know the least about is the one leading in the polls — Barack Obama. Some of Sen. Obama’s most fervent supporters could not tell you what he has actually done on such issues as crime, education, or financial institutions like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, much less what he plans to do to stop Iran from becoming a nuclear nation supplying nuclear weapons to the international terrorist networks that it has supplied with other weapons.
The magic word “change” makes specifics unnecessary. If things are going bad, some think that what is needed is blank-check “change.” But history shows any number of countries in crises worse than ours, where “change” turned problems into catastrophes. In czarist Russia, for example, the economy was worse than ours is today and World War I was going far worse for the Russians than anything we have faced in Iraq. Moreover, Russians had nothing like the rights of Americans today. So they went for “change.” That “change” brought on a totalitarian regime that made the czars’ despotism look like child’s play. The communists killed more people in one year than the czars killed in more than 90 years, not counting the millions who died in a government-created famine in the 1930s. Other despotic regimes in China, Cuba, and Iran were similarly replaced by people who promised “change” that turned out to be even worse than what went before. Yet, many today seem to assume that if things are bad, “change” will make them better. Specifics don’t interest them nearly as much as inspiring rhetoric and a confident style. But many 20th century leaders with inspiring rhetoric and great self-confidence led their followers or their countries into utter disasters. These ranged from Jim Jones who led hundreds to their deaths in Jonestown to Hitler and Mao who led millions to their deaths. What specifics do we know about Barack Obama’s track record that might give us some clue as to what kinds of “changes” to expect if he is elected?
We know that he opposed the practice of putting violent young felons on trial as adults. We know that he was against a law forbidding physicians to kill a baby that was born alive despite an attempt to abort it. We know that Obama opposed attempts to put stricter regulations on Fannie Mae — and that he was the second largest recipient of campaign contributions from Fannie Mae. We know that this very year his campaign sought the advice of disgraced former Fannie Mae CEO Franklin Raines. Fannie Mae and Raines were at the heart of “the mess in Washington” that Barack Obama claims he is going to clean up under the banner of “change.” The public has been told very little about what this man with the wonderful rhetoric has actually done. What we knows enough to make us wonder about what we don’t know. Or it ought to. For the true believers — which includes many in the media — it is just a question of whether you like him or not.
Posted by: Mark Garnett | October 23, 2008, 8:00 am 8:00 am
I am happy to support Ob Mama of America.
We here are also happy to win the election.
God bless you ObMama
Posted by: waka | October 23, 2008, 9:59 am 9:59 am
Suggestion for presenting poll results in the next presidential election cycle: Let the reader use your survey data to come up with our own results. That is, let us use your data to decide what ratio of Republican, Democrat and Independent voters to use, what characteristics to use to make up a “likely” voter, etc.
You could give us your template for these things, as a guide, but some folks might have different ideas, resulting in different results, using the same data.
It would also help deflect some of the charges of poll bias, since people could come up with their own biases.
Just a thought.
Posted by: robert | October 23, 2008, 10:05 am 10:05 am
To: Mark Garnett
I just went and read the article from Meridian that you linked in a recent posting. Whoever Mr. Card is, he is certainly NOT an objective writer. He states things are “facts” — based on another author saying so! This is sheer stupidity.
I don’t care if someone is anti-Obama or anti-McCain — present your ideas in an intelligent manner — based on facts — and I’ll listen. To say the democrats did this, or the republicans did that, only serves to distract thoughtful people from any intelligent discussion and debate.
From your posts you seem to have vast knowledge about what is in the hearts and minds of Obama, McCain, republicans and democrats. You are blessed. God didn’t make me that smart.
I can’t tell what a person thinks just because they are democrat or republican. I have to actually hear what a person says — and then discuss THAT — not break into a rant about mindless issues — Sarah Palin’s $150,000 or a terrorist from the 60s.
The biggest danger in the world is the ignorance of the ignorant.
Posted by: ally d | October 23, 2008, 10:14 am 10:14 am
I’m glad to see another Obama absentee ballot being sent Good for you Jennifer from Ohio I am sending in my absentee ballot today and I’m from originally from Indiana. I hope all the people who registered to vote go out and vote this year make your vote count. It’s not over yet you can’t trust the republicans in these elections. And come on America don’t believe McCain with his Joe the Plumber how can anyone believe a man that didn’t even pay his back taxes and is not a real plumber he was definately a plant by the republicans. Wake up America see the writing on the wall McCain is a liar and a manipulative person to boot. RJ
Posted by: RJ | October 23, 2008, 11:39 am 11:39 am
In some states, red or blue, the presidential election will be very close. Whenever it is close, extra voters will cast their ballots.
There are currently problems with long lines at early voting sites. I wish ABC news would start covering the voting places now. Please uncover what problems are now happening that is causing long waiting times to vote. Please ask the public for any suggestions to make the voting process more efficient. I remember hearing about some states in the last general Election about many people did not leave the voting places until well after midnight. Many people ended up not voting.
Many states will have several state amendments on their ballots. This will take several extra minutes for each voter to weigh through. Many voters may not know how to vote for the amendments. Other votes for judges and other minor candidates running for office will require even more time to weigh through at the voting machine. Many voters will not have a clue how to vote. Instead of voters having one-step of gathering information on all amendments and candidates to vote for, the information gathering process could be done at multiple stations.
Stations could be set up along the long line of people waiting to vote. A few stations could be set up to broadcast information of what is going to be on one’s ballot when you vote. This may or may not help speed the whole voting process.
Station one could hand out sample ballots. Station two could list amendments and what they mean. Station three could list judges and who they are. Station four could mention any other minor candidates running for office and who they are. Laptops with wireless Internet cards could play these messages at these stations. Cards could play these messages on a larger screen from the laptops for voters to see. The laptops would be connected to an official voting website to play these messages for voters. Suggestions could be made how to mark your ballot for your personal vote. If everyone better understood what amendments and other minor candidates they are also voting for before the actual vote – this may quicken the overall voting process.
Finally, perhaps voters could find a way through blogging or text messaging to communicate directly with officials at the official election website of any problems developing at their voting sites. This may solve problems quicker at election sites.
Are there better ideas that will help with the voting process run more efficiently? Poll watchers also should be encouraged to blog or text those ideas on the official election web site. Then we all may have a better experience through the whole voting process.
Posted by: dave in des moines | October 23, 2008, 12:25 pm 12:25 pm
i agree chheck double cheeck that your vote recorded is for the candidate you want . CHEECK AND DOUBLE CHEECK .
Posted by: bernard | October 23, 2008, 5:37 pm 5:37 pm
how sick must a man be to to accept the perverse way that Sinator McCain has shown his greedy little hands
and his constaint plotting against what are the best interests of the American people. when will he show us the respect we deserve, instead of pandering to us.
Posted by: jerry | October 23, 2008, 7:47 pm 7:47 pm
Im in Florida and the polls do not due Obama justice!!! Only the old republicans are voting McCain….Obama should be ahead by at least 11 points here!!! McCain is running ads like crazy and no one is listening…If they win Florida they stole it!! And this time we wont stand by while they decide our president!!! THERE WILL BE RIOTS!!! People here are fired up and very emotional about this race….The worst part is that the riots will come from the students and all the young voters, blacks, whites, and so on!!!
I was #5 in the line for early voting on monday and waited 1hr and 20 minutes because the printer broke or so they said!!! I report it!!!
COME ON OHIO hit the homerun needed it!!!
OBAMA/BIDEN 2008
Posted by: Julie | October 23, 2008, 8:37 pm 8:37 pm
Don’t worry, Obama will win with a huge majority.
Posted by: Sammy | October 24, 2008, 12:41 am 12:41 am
McCain take it easy and settle down, it is almost over.
Posted by: sammy | October 24, 2008, 12:44 am 12:44 am
McCain take it easy and settle down, it is almost over for you now…..”my friend” go home and relax OR spent time with “Joe the plumber” for a third try in 2016.
Posted by: John | October 24, 2008, 12:50 am 12:50 am
I think we should carry out a comprehensive investigation on Joe the plumber, It truly doesn’t seem like coincidence,the way the Macain camp is going about talking about him on their campaigns.If he is a grand plan for the republician party i think IT should be exposed.They seem very desperate and it is not good at this time when America is facing one of its greates challenges in morden history.
Posted by: indepent veiwer | October 24, 2008, 9:28 am 9:28 am
I think we should carry out a comprehensive investigation on Joe the plumber, It truly doesn’t seem like coincidence,the way the Macain camp is going about talking about him on their campaigns.If he is a grand plan for the republician party i think IT should be exposed.They seem very desperate and it is not good at this time when America is facing one of its greates challenges in morden history.
Posted by: indepent veiwer | October 24, 2008, 9:30 am 9:30 am
It is a burning shame that the rep`s. whom call themselves morally matured are the ones throwing the mud. I personally have nothing against Mr. Mc.but he is losing it just look at him on the campaign trail, saying the same old thing over & over again. Then his running mate has no more honesty than a hungry croc. at a feast, I mean come on give us some substance, not red meat. Lies may get you some votes but if you call your self a christian the punishment shall be great. By the way I voted already, have you? if not what are you waiting for. We need some youthful thinking. OBAMA “08″
Posted by: geo | October 24, 2008, 4:37 pm 4:37 pm
“CAN ANYONE TELL ME HOW OBAMA PLANS TO TAKE MONEY FROM THE WEALTHY AND GIVE TO THE POOR? THE LAST TIME THAT I CHECKED –THE CONGRESS IS MADE UP OF WEALTHY INDIVIDUALS. DO YOU MEAN TO TELL ME THAT CONGRESS WILL CUT IT’S OWN THROAT? LETS FACE IT; IF OBAMA GETS ELECTED IT WILL BE BECAUSE OF THE BLACK AND POORER PEOPLE WHO BELIEVE THAT HE CAN WALK ON WATER AND GIVE THEM ALL A FREE HANDOUT.
Posted by: Larry | October 25, 2008, 1:08 pm 1:08 pm
I hope the media is just keeping us in suspense for the outcome of this election by keeping the polls as close as possible so they don’t lose their viewing audience, if they show either candidate as the winner by a landslide…who wants to watch their news? I am in Texas and I am voting Obama/Biden because Obama has a workable solution to the many problems this country faces and McCain has only insults & accusations for the opposing candidate, not to mention Palin who, like McCain shows a complete lack of character. To the people who don’t understand how you can tax the wealthy more, read your history and the tax rates that FDR enacted. It is a sad state of affairs when the poor & middle class are trying to protect the extremely wealthy from paying too much tax, I bet they’re laying awake nights on their yachts concerned about you & your mortgage payments, etc. LOL When the Republicans are screaming that the media is all liberal & for Obama, did they ever think about how much money TV personalities make annually? They will not get a tax break with Obama’s plan, they will most likely get a tax increase…as will sports players who make ridiculous amounts of money for chasing, throwing or tossing a ball around.
Posted by: Just a thought | October 25, 2008, 3:32 pm 3:32 pm