Leadership and Change
EmailAfter a year positioning himself as the change candidate, Barack Obama owns the issue. On leadership overall, though, it’s a far closer call.
Likely voters by 60-34 percent in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll say Obama would do more than McCain to bring needed change to Washington. That’s roughly where they’ve been since March, with the exception of a 51-39 percent result just after the Republican convention, a gain for McCain that didn’t hold.
The result is another of several that conjure up the 1992 election. Bill Clinton held a 25-point lead over George H. W. Bush on who’d do the best job “bringing needed changes,” almost identical to Obama’s 26-point lead today. (As we’ve reported previously, Obama’s also the first Democrat since Clinton to lead on taxes, and the first since Clinton to hold a clear lead in trust to handle the economy – the dominant issue now as then.)
McCain is more competitive on leadership; likely voters divide, 49-46 percent, Obama-McCain, on who’s the stronger leader. That’s better for McCain than Obama’s 56-39 percent lead on this question Oct. 11; but worse than McCain’s best, a 53-40 percent lead back in March. For a candidate who’s campaigned heavily on experience and judgment, McCain must have been looking to do better on leadership in the final week.
Beyond Republicans and conservatives, McCain does best on leadership with evangelical white Protestants (72 percent pick him as the stronger leader than Obama) and rural voters (59 percent). But it’s closer in some other groups, such as whites (53 percent) and men (51 percent).
Views on change are more lopsided; just Republicans, conservatives and evangelical white Protestants pick McCain over Obama as best to bring needed change. Rural voters divide by 47-41 percent, Obama-McCain. Obama preferred on change by 54 percent of whites, and, in the political center, by 58 percent of independents.
…and Hispanics
Separately, we’ve taken another look at Hispanic voters in our tracking poll. As in past years they’re somewhat less engaged politically: While 83 percent of whites and 82 percent of blacks report being registered to vote, that declines to 67 percent of Hispanics. (Some, of course, are not citizens, and therefore ineligible to register.) Moreover, among registereds, 63 percent of blacks and 59 percent of whites are following the election “very closely”; among Hispanics that declines to 45 percent.
Whites account for about three-quarters of likely voters, blacks for about one in 10 and Hispanics for 6 percent – each group essentially matching its share of 2004 turnout, per the network exit poll. In one interesting difference, though, Hispanics are far more likely to identify themselves as first-time voters – 31 percent do so, compared with 19 percent of blacks and 9 percent of whites.
As far as vote preference, using our aggregate data over the past 14 nights for a good sample size, Hispanics favor Obama over McCain by a wide 69-28 percent, much like their Democratic vs. Republican vote for House seats in 2006 (69-30 percent) and similar to Clinton’s 72 percent support from Hispanics in 1996. Al Gore won 62 percent of Hispanics in 2000, John Kerry 58 percent in 2004, though a less-reliable 2004 exit poll figure of 53 percent often is reported.
USS Gabrielle Giffords Honors Courage 
Mitt Romney's Full Speech at CPAC 2012
Ok Libs, now that we are all getting ready for failed jimmy carter presidency part deux with all of obamas socilist policies, when do u suppose the media will finally turn on him and expose him for what he really is. I am betting by February 1, after he has proposed a trillion in spending. What do you say…
Posted by: jack f. | October 30, 2008, 8:20 am 8:20 am
YUP he is the candidate of change, he keeps changing his tax cut numbers, now we are down to 200k for families. The good news…now we have more RICH people in America, I bet they are relieved to find out they are rich.
Posted by: samhiguchi | October 30, 2008, 8:26 am 8:26 am
It will take longer than until February 1st to start tearing him down. I’d guess mid May. Oh the disappointment the voters are going to face. I’m just glad I no longer look to the government to make my life better. I broke free, and YOU CAN, too. Power to the people not the media.
Posted by: Kitty | October 30, 2008, 8:29 am 8:29 am
jack f. you’re funny! you compare Obama to Carter, but when anyone compares McCain to Bush you say he’s not the same, keep trying….
Posted by: matt | October 30, 2008, 8:32 am 8:32 am
and samhiguchi nice try
the tax numbers have never changed
but the lies from the McCain campaign sure have…lol
same team
same tactics
same lies and spin to fool the American people
9th year.
Posted by: dl | October 30, 2008, 8:33 am 8:33 am
I am betting by February 1, after he has proposed a trillion in spending. What do you say…
——————-
I say that according to all third party sources, McCain has proposed a larger budget deficit that Obama.
The idea of “fiscal responsibility” in the GOP is a farce. When has the Republican party ever really decreased spending? Every Republican President in the last 50 years has incresed the deficit and increased the debt.
Sure, they always say, “no new taxes”. Instead they just borrow the money from other nations and pass on the debt to the next generation. Buy now, pay later is the Republican ideology.
It’s their failure to understand the consequesnces of such a policy that has put America where it is today. Republican economic thoery has been a failure by every metric used to measure an economy.
Posted by: GOP HYPOCRISY | October 30, 2008, 8:42 am 8:42 am
There is no way he can do anything he wants to without raising taxes and someone finally pointed that out to him
—————–
And yet no one has pointed that out to McCain?
Accoring to the Tax Policy Center, McCains’s proposals will incease the national debt by $10.2 TRILLION dollars in ten years. Obama’s plan will increase it by $5.7 trillion in the same amount of time.
Both ar HUGE over spenders, but McCain is the worse of two evils.
Posted by: GOP HYPOCRISY | October 30, 2008, 8:46 am 8:46 am
Dl and Matt. Kool Aid party at Olberman’s starts at 8 – drink up! If your boy is so economically astute why does the tax line keep dropping 250,000 to 200,000 now it is 150,000. Get ready people the huge tax increases are coming.
Posted by: jack f | October 30, 2008, 8:48 am 8:48 am
McCain has shown his character in this campaign: it’s vicious, petty, lazy, reckless, vain and dishonorable. Campaigns do that. They reveal who someone really is.
Posted by: asullivan | October 30, 2008, 8:55 am 8:55 am
A TRUE leader inspires, raises our hopes, offers a new horizon, and has a plan and vision for the future.
Name calling and inuendo based accusation takes the leadership of a third grader. Stay the course is not leadership, that just going with the flow when we’re headed in the wrong direction.
It’s obvious there is only one TRUE leader in this campaign and it is Barack Obama.
Americans now understand we cannot continue to have a government that believes catering only to the wealthy is what is best for the nation.
Barack has lead the whole time. McCain has just tried to play catch up.
McCain showed, with his choice of Plain, that he was more concerned with appealing to the right wing nut jobs than doing what is best for the country. He caved in on the very issues he that supposedly “stood up agianst his party”.
Next Tuesday, Americans will chose the leadership over negativity.
Posted by: Barack the Vote | October 30, 2008, 8:55 am 8:55 am
dl, I would urge you to go in search of the tape, I believe it happens in the 4th or 5th minute of the tape. He says he will cut taxes for families making less than 200 thousand a year (Biden said 150k) So yes it did change and the words came direct from O’s mouth.
As for when the press will start tearing O down (if elected) I say mid Feb, you have to consider he takes office Jan 20, he’s already got the drapes picked out, so no problems there and the dems (Pelosi, Reid, Frank and Kerry) are going to be all ready to roll with their massive spending plans. Give them a week to go over that, another week for the press to try and hide their embarassment for picking a doofus for prez and before Valentines day you will see the first stories printed.
Posted by: samhiguchi | October 30, 2008, 9:00 am 9:00 am
Barack wants change…So McCain decided he would be about change as well(even tried to steal the slogan)
Barack speaks for the middle class…so McCain decided perhaps he should mention the middle class
Barack has the power of personality….so McCain decided he needed someone who had personal appeal
Barack speaks out against Bush policies…so McCain decided he shouls say smoething aginst Bush policies (when heactually supported them)
WHO IS THE REAL LEADER?
It’s obvious.
Posted by: Dave in VA | October 30, 2008, 9:01 am 9:01 am
Before anyone starts calling ME names, let’s explain this: I used to support McCain. My problem with McCain is called Sarah Palin. Having said that. let me remind everyone about President Bush, the elder. He said “No new taxes,” but his Republican predecessor left him with a 3 trillion dollar debt. Guess what? He had to raise taxes; the alternative — not to address the debt — would have sunk this Nation into oblivion. Forward to 2009: who ever wins WILL HAVE TO RAISE TAXES. The debt is now $11,500,000,000,000. If ANY Candidate tells you he won’t raise SOMEONE’S taxes — he or she is lying to you. Comprende?
Posted by: aeronaut | October 30, 2008, 9:12 am 9:12 am
E_DAY – 5: ELECTORAL COLLEGE EV POLLS
2008
Obama 375
McCain 157
Tie 6
2004
Bush 280
Kerry 243
Tie 15
State-by-State Polls Are What Matters And Always Predict The Winer.
IT’S OVER…….
Posted by: Steve_NJ | October 30, 2008, 9:17 am 9:17 am
Obama 54% mccain 42%
Obama 340 EV
mccain 198 EV
Posted by: pt | October 30, 2008, 9:30 am 9:30 am
As for when the press will start tearing O down (if elected) I say mid Feb, you have to consider he takes office Jan 20, he’s already got the drapes picked out, so no problems there and the dems (Pelosi, Reid, Frank and Kerry) are going to be all ready to roll with their massive spending plans. Give them a week to go over that, another week for the press to try and hide their embarassment for picking a doofus for prez and before Valentines day you will see the first stories printed.
Posted by: samhiguchi | Oct 30, 2008 9:00:11 AM
** Jealous are we? America gave Republicans their turn and look how they’ve ruined the nation.. thanks but no thanks for that bridge to nowhere!
Posted by: Voter 4 Obama in Real VA | October 30, 2008, 9:37 am 9:37 am
On a different note, while the American economy is verging on collapse, the financial markets have crashed, the housing maket is gone, growth is going backwards, and unemployment is on the rise…..
I thought should I’d share the feel good story of the day:
“Exxon Mobil breaks profit record, earns $14.8 Billion”
Now don’t you feel better about Republican economic policy? It will trickle down right? Just trust the “Maverick”.
Posted by: Dave in VA - ALSO REAL VA! | October 30, 2008, 9:51 am 9:51 am
Jack F seems to think we assume that the economic disaster that took eight years to create will be fixed by February if Obama takes office. Otherwise, we’ll be angry.
Sorry Jack, most of us know it will takes years to get our nation back on track. But we know that McCain has charted a crash course, and he will never get get us turned around.
Posted by: Rachel | October 30, 2008, 10:02 am 10:02 am
Just trust the maverick!!!!!! Maverick!!!!!!
Posted by: Troy | October 30, 2008, 10:13 am 10:13 am
I am a Veteran of this great Nation (United States of America) and it will prosper once again.
Posted by: Troy | October 30, 2008, 10:14 am 10:14 am
John McCain is not a maverick.He’s just only a sidekick to George Bush so kick the sidekick OUT!OUT!OUT!
Obama/Biden ’08
Posted by: michael | October 30, 2008, 10:52 am 10:52 am
Well At least Obama doesnt have to Drag around a Fake Plumber who owes back taxes,And is a bold faced liar Mccain you should be embaressed toting around that phoney insulting Americans Intelligence
Posted by: Angie | October 30, 2008, 10:58 am 10:58 am
Republican Party and the Economy – both are melting like yellow snow!!!!
Just say no to McSAME and Gun toting Snow Queen –
Vote for Change – Vote for a chance at a different future
Vote Obama/Biden
Posted by: NoSpin_Florida | October 30, 2008, 11:48 am 11:48 am
The true defination of IRONY: conservative and republican. hahahaha
the conservative movement is dead, long live the republican party.
Posted by: jimt | October 30, 2008, 6:50 pm 6:50 pm
What kind of Leader calls out to a “man off the street” to help deliver his message on this Nation’s Foreign Policies? ? Really, now, how much faith can we put in Joe the Plumber’s viewpoints? Surely is a sign to me, that I don’t want you leading the USA for me.
Posted by: Laura from Willis, TX. | October 30, 2008, 8:17 pm 8:17 pm
Rock your vote!
Early vote!
Just Vote!
No more solidiers for oil
No more rotten politics
No negative politiCains
Obama 08
Vote for Change
Posted by: GoodLuckCharm | October 31, 2008, 1:34 am 1:34 am
the real Maverick Family against McCain
He’s no Maverick
Obama 08
Posted by: GoodLuckCharm | October 31, 2008, 1:51 am 1:51 am
Right now in America, we desperately need a leader that will begin to consider the middle class, hard working, common people of this country, and begin to give hope to people at a poverty level, that they can still acheive the “America Dream” if they work hard at it, and they really do have half a chance of succeeding. It is very hard for me to believe someone of the higher, wealthy status that the McCain’s are, can bring themselves down to the level of the common people of America, and really understand what it is like to have to struggle to make ends meet, or even to put food on your families table. Barack Obama has been at this level, and has risen above it to the level he has presently acheived, and he understands what its like to be poor, and struggling in America, but has overcome this on his own merit, and has proven himself to be a leader, and helper of the common people of America, and is very similar to Abe Lincoln, John F.Kennedy, and FDR. in the way he sees life in America, and what needs to be done to correct the problems in America.
Posted by: jms55 | October 31, 2008, 5:16 am 5:16 am
Why is it that Mccain supporters insist on making innuendos about a relationship between O’bama, Bill Ayers & Rasheed Kalidi, Yet don’t mention that McCain, as Chairman of the Int’l Rep Insitute, gave $450,000 grant money to Khalidi in 1998 (which by the way, Ayers was a part of)
Why is it that Republican’s make a big deal over Democrats spending money on fashion (John Edwards’ $400 haircut he paid for himself) but insist $150,000 spent by the RNC for Sarah Palin is no big deal and that we should be focusing on big issues.
Posted by: JEKN | October 31, 2008, 2:36 pm 2:36 pm
Why are you democrates and liberals so blinded to who Obama is, or who he isn’t! Unfortunately it will be the whole of American that will suffer for your ignorance and your williness to trust a lying, sidestepping, inexperienced corrupt politician. You follow a pied piper and we all have to pay the price. You ignorate dimwitted lowbrow self-serving twits.
Posted by: Stfchb | October 31, 2008, 7:41 pm 7:41 pm
When Obama debated with Clinton, he replied to the comment about his supporter could not list any his accomplishment with “There are millions people voted for me, don’t you think they don’t know me!”
Don’t you think he sound just like the emperor with the new clothes that only the smart guys can see and dummies can’t?
If I can, I would draw a cartoon with a guy naked, yelling “Change!” and changed his hat every few years, with the last hat as a crown. In the background, young girls yelled “I have a crash!” and toddler Biden and toddler Clinton yelled: “The emperor has no clothes!”
When Obama attacking McCain as George W Bush, he forgot in one aspect he himself is really like George W Bush. George W Bush had very little national political experience, and more importantly, had no setbacks before elected president, which gave him a sense of invincibility after winning the presidential election and led us into the messes today. We just can’t afford to elect another guy without any setback and go into White House cockily. He might be ready to lead after a setback in 2008, but not in 2008.
Posted by: Hong | November 1, 2008, 3:22 pm 3:22 pm
WHY I AM VOTING FOR SEN. OBAMA SO AS TO FURTHER THE AGENDA OF DR. RON PAUL
October 30, 2008
SUMMARY
I love and respect Dr. Ron Paul and Ms. Carol Paul. They are wise, loving and courageous.
I am voting for Senator Obama because if I vote for my candidate of choice, Dr. Ron Paul, we might see a repeat of the last election and end up with a warmongering, inarticulate, Republican warmongering President who never really had to live in my shoes as a member of the struggling middle-class.
I believe that the American People are slowly becoming wise enough to see through the blatant manipulation of election results by the mainstream media that is owned and controlled by big business and by the two reigning political parties.
I am confident that by the next Presidential election in 2012 that the majority of American Citizens will know about:
1) the beliefs and record of Dr. Ron Paul;
2) the weakness of our present two party system; and
3) the existence and party platforms of other alternatives such as Green, Constitution and Libertarian parties. I am confident that the REVOLUTION Dr. Ron Paul started against the big business controlled media and two reigning political parties will continue to benefit our nation for the greater good.
MY RATIONALE
Socialist Universal Health Insurance
I say – BRING IT ON! Our present health care system benefits big business and illegal aliens, not the American citizen or the American health care providers. I have lived without health insurance and I know from personal experience that the present system degrades the health of American Citizens on a daily basis. Once all Americans have health care – without the huge glut of illegal aliens – we can consider other options as Dr. Paul suggests. I see it as a possible evolution from where we are now to where we and Dr. Paul wants us to be.
Continued on my blog: http//:glasschimes.wordpress.com
Website: http://www.diannepearce.com
Posted by: DiannePearce | November 1, 2008, 6:56 pm 6:56 pm
Why hasn’t anybody asked for this President and his administration for there impeachment?
1. Stole the 2000 election.
2. Responsible for the foreign policies, that led to the 9/11 attack.
3. Lied to the American people about the weapons of mass destruction.
4. Responsible for starting an illegal war.
5. Went after the wrong enemy responsible for 9/11 attack.
6. Didn’t abide by the Geneva and Hague Conventions.
7. Allowed the Al Qaeda break America financially.
Cleary they had a different agenda for Iraq. (A US present in an oil country).
8. Is a slave to the Oil & Financial Lobbyist?
9. Responsible, for 750,000+ jobs leaving America.
10. Responsible for the broken bank system.
11. Responsible for the broken housing market.
12. Responsible for the loss of the 401k investments.
13. Responsible for high fuel prices..
14. Responsible for the mass unemployment we’re experiencing.
15. Responsible for the failed medical system that only the elite can afford.
If we don’t punish the responsible parties to this disaster its going to happen again. This is why we need change.
Tom the retired construction boss
Posted by: TJM | November 1, 2008, 9:30 pm 9:30 pm