Buoyed by encouraging poll numbers — today’s ABC News/Washington Post poll has Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., beating Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz, 53% to 43% — lots of Obama backers out there seem to think this thing is over.
Sen. Hillary Clinton’s senior adviser Howard Wolfson today writes "A PreMortem for The McCain Campaign," stating, "The economic crisis dealt the McCain campaign a fatal body blow." He goes on to explore what McCain should have done differently.
That’s not what lots of smart folks in the Obama campaign think. They believe Obama’s poll numbers are artificially high, McCain’s are artificially low, this race will come down to two or three points, and anything could happen.
As Anne Kornblut and Jon Cohen in the Washington Post today remind us, "recent history suggests that mid-October leads are vulnerable…At this stage in 1992, Bill Clinton held a 14-point advantage over incumbent George H.W. Bush in Post-ABC polling, and it was as high as 19 points before the election, which he won by six points. In mid-October 1976, Jimmy Carter had leads as big as 13 points in Gallup polling; Carter defeated incumbent Gerald Ford by two points."
CNN on October 5, 2000 reported that the "CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll indicates that Vice President Al Gore may be opening a solid lead over Texas Gov. George W. Bush, after nearly two weeks of neck-and-neck competition. Today’s figures — 51 percent for Gore to 40 percent for Bush — represents a significant margin for the vice president."
Obviously the numbers narrowed a little bit.
As will these as well.
UPDATE: It did not even occur to me, until a poster below accused me of being racist, that anyone would think my invoking of the line "Check yourself before you wreck yourself" had anything to do with Obama’s race.
It does not.
It has to do with my frequent use of silly pop culture references, and the fact that I am a big fan of Ice Cube.
And in that spirit, enjoy: