Of Markets and Marriages
EmailPolling notes follow on two very different issues in the news: The market and gay marriage.
MARKET – In the past the public has reacted with fortitude to steep declines in the stock market. There are several reasons: While a lot own stocks or stock funds, plenty don’t; those who do tend to be long-term, buy-and-hold investors, many with an investment timeline long enough to wait out a crash; and stock and stock-fund owners tend to be better-off financially, and thus better positioned to absorb a hit.
To some extent, also, a sense of the market’s inherent risk is built into public attitudes. In a poll we did in March 2005, 69 percent called the stock market a risky place to put their money. In July 2002, after a one-week, 10 percent drop in the Dow (and a two-year, 30-percent drop), even more, 80 percent, called it risky. Yet investors invest.
None of this mitigates the real impact of the current turmoil on millions of individual investors, particularly those ready to call on long-built savings for tuition or retirement. Nor does it anticipate the broader economic impact yet to be felt. And while the past adds perspective, it’s not predictive; the current turmoil is virtually unprecedented.
Recent polling indicates that about 45 percent of adults own stocks directly or through mutual funds, excluding retirement accounts. More, 57 percent in a Pew poll in February, reported having retirement accounts such as an IRA or 401(k). In a January poll, 40 percent reported having a traditional pension plan. Fewer directly own stocks, outside of mutual funds – 22 percent in that poll we did in 2002.
And among all stock and stock fund owners, in a poll we did back in 2001, 92 percent called themselves long-term, buy-and-hold investors.
As to recent data: In a Wall Street Journal/NBC poll completed Oct. 5, 49 percent of Americans said they were being personally affected by the Wall Street and mortgage crisis; considerably fewer, 20 percent, said they were being affected “a great deal.”
Broader concern nonetheless clearly is high. In an ABC/Post poll Sept. 22, with the financial crises well underway but not yet at its fever pitch, 79 percent Americans were worried about the economy’s future, 72 percent about the performance of the stock market and 60 percent about their own family’s finances. Again, fewer in each case were “very” worried, 40, 33 and 22 percent, respectively. One obvious question is whether the ongoing crisis has heightened those high-level worries.
Our ongoing ABC News consumer confidence index remained very low this week, -43 on its scale of +100 to -100 last week. It’s been stable, but part of that stability may stem from the fact that it’s computed on a four-week rolling average. We’ll see what happens when a fresh week rolls in next week. At the same time, likely for the same reasons cited above, the index has not responded dramatically to past stock market declines. (And one strongly negative factor on consumer views, gasoline prices, in fact have eased.)
As noted, previous steep market declines were accompanied by concern, but well short of despair. In the July 2002 poll I’ve mentioned, 69 percent said they were concerned by the market’s drop; it was 64 percent in March 2001, and 68 percent after the particularly nasty tumble of October 1987. But in each of these cases far fewer were “very concerned” – 28, 24 and 14 percent, respectively.
MARRIAGE – Vis-à-vis the Connecticut ruling, the latest national polling indicates greater acceptance of gay marriage than in the past, with anywhere from a slight majority opposed, to, in the latest result, an even split.
In a Time magazine poll in August likely voters divided 47-47 percent on gay marriage. That result was a tad odd, since it was a less even 51-42 percent opposed in a Time poll just a month earlier, and 53-44 percent opposed in a CNN poll in late June. All these, though, are closer to the 58-35 percent opposition Time measured in 2004, and our own average of 57-37 percent in polls from 2003-2006.
Support for civil unions has been higher, and also has shifted – in our own data, from 40 percent support in 2003 to a high of 55 percent support in 2007.
Another approach has been to ask which of the three options people prefer – gay marriage, civil unions or no legal recognition of gay relationships. Most nationally favor one of the two forms of legal recognition. In the latest, a Quinnipiac poll in July, 32 percent favored gay marriage, 33 percent civil unions, 29 percent no recognition. Newsweek and CBS polls earlier in the summer had very similar results.
In Connecticut itself, Quinnipiac asked the three-way question in early 2007: Thirty-nine percent favored gay marriage, 33 percent civil unions, 22 percent neither. It hasn’t asked a straight yea/nay on gay marriage in Connecticut since spring 2005, at that time finding 53 percent opposed, 42 percent in favor.
Sen. DeMint: GOP Race Could Go Until Convention 
Obama Avoids Questions on Contraception Rule
I am a man and I am married to my female wife. We both don’t care if two people of the same gender get married. We hope EVERYONE can enjoy the freedoms and joys that me and my wife both enjoy.
Posted by: Reason | October 10, 2008, 1:39 pm 1:39 pm
Attention All Gay People: Be Careful of what you wish for!!!
Posted by: Deep Release | October 10, 2008, 1:40 pm 1:40 pm
In 15 years from now, gay marriage will be legal everywhere and we’ll look back on this discrimination with as much disbelief and contempt that we today view in segregation. bank on it!
Posted by: dem in chicago | October 10, 2008, 1:41 pm 1:41 pm
no kidding dem in chicago..
Posted by: Bhrandon | October 10, 2008, 1:43 pm 1:43 pm
The Divorce lawyers REJOICE!
Posted by: hmn | October 10, 2008, 1:57 pm 1:57 pm
I agree with dem in chicago … life has become so much better as we integrate everyone into our society as equals.
Posted by: Cassandra Washington | October 10, 2008, 2:05 pm 2:05 pm
expect Palin rallies to get even more like Timothy McVeigh gatherings
Posted by: dl | October 10, 2008, 2:26 pm 2:26 pm
Another stark example of the rapid decline of the USA. “Wow” i’ll bet all of you libs are very proud of your selves. lets review your accomplishements! Gay Marriage, Abortion, Elimination of GOD in school, Terrorist rights, Evolution only in schools, Rights for illegals, Christ out of Christmas, Federal Judges making law, Barney Frank, Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi, Biased media, elimination of parental rights, foreign dependency on oil, etc., etc., etc. And coming soon your crowning achievement, Barrak(Bruce) Hussein Obama, the answer to the prayers of radical Islam. I Thank you!! I wonder if your children will?
Posted by: bombem | October 10, 2008, 2:46 pm 2:46 pm
Reason: I think some one said that back at Sodom and Gamorra!!
Posted by: bombem | October 10, 2008, 3:03 pm 3:03 pm
dl: McVeigh, Ayers, tell me the difference Oblind one?
Posted by: bombem | October 10, 2008, 3:07 pm 3:07 pm
Good for America! Equal rights for all!
Posted by: nina | October 10, 2008, 4:44 pm 4:44 pm
bombem: Some corrections—God has not been eliminated from school (the kids in my classroom ask questions and share things about God frequently—no I don’t lead prayers—that doesn’t keep the kids or me from praying, however). The problem is that too often God has been eliminated from the home—-Under our constitution all people have rights under the law regardless of what they may be accused of—-Christis still in Christmas (just check the word), unfortunately not everyone celebrates as though he is—-I’m more concerned that Christ has been pushed aside at Easter—-parental rights haven’t been taken away so much as parents have given them up by not acting like parents—-perhaps our dependency on so much foreign oil might be solved to a certain extent by the oil companies not holding back so much for export to other countries (we do export a lot)—-I don’t support abortion, but I do support a woman’s right to choose (if you know anything about “back street” abortion I think you might begin to see the light, maybe—-I am a devout, practicing Christian, I am gay, I am Democrat, I am liberal, I am conservative, I guess I’m an anomally—regardless McCain / Palin have given me no good reason to vote for them—I’m voting for Obama / Biden because I agree with most of what they stand for.
Posted by: George | October 10, 2008, 4:52 pm 4:52 pm
George, If you support a woman’s right to choose, then you support abortion. What is a devout practicing Christian? Is that the same as one who has been delivered from the power of darkness and translated into the kindom of God’s dear Son? One who has been saved by his wonderful grace?
Posted by: Wes | October 10, 2008, 9:41 pm 9:41 pm
difference on McVeigh/Ayres
McVeigh killed a mutitude of people and was executed for his crime.
Ayers NEVER killed anyone, was NOT convicted of ANYTHING and serves as
a College Professor and on the education board funded and founded by RONALD REAGAN’S FRIEND/FELLOW REPUBLICAN
ANNENBURG. So Ronald Reagan was paling around with the man who FUNDED this
“terrorist” Ayers. HELLO !!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: Jack | October 10, 2008, 10:54 pm 10:54 pm
Direct Reply to DL. I am sick and tired of your far right wing crap recital that I hear so often. It is you and your ilk that are so far to the right than any live and let live people are branded left wing extremists. The 2 real problems I have with Christianity are 1.) The right wing do and I say not as I do bigot crowd uses religion to justify bigotry and 2.) Christ tells me I must have love and respect for you in my heart instead of disgust verging on rage. God, that is the toughest one for me.
Posted by: Terry | October 11, 2008, 7:14 am 7:14 am
gay people are the same as everyone else and deserve to have the same rights
Posted by: sk8boardgrind | October 11, 2008, 8:58 am 8:58 am
Republicans argue that marriage must be between one man and one woman. They also fuss about a fetus being a human being. Based on Republican ‘logic’, Sarah Palin’s daughter & her boyfriend can’t get married since three people are involved.
Posted by: Douglass | October 11, 2008, 10:49 am 10:49 am
It is not the law that an unmarried person cannot be a parent. A 16 year old child can be brutally raped and you want it to be LAW that she must become a parent or give that child away. A man and woman can get married and choose not to have a child. Their love together is enough-and we honor it. In most places, an unmarried person can adopt a child. It is not the law that a person has to love the child they have or raise that child to be a productive, responsible, well-adjusted adult. It is not the law that a person who is not mentally or financially well suited to be a parent cannot be. It happens every day. Unloved, uneducated, undisciplined, children who lose the ability to dream or hope or expect good things are allowed to live. While it IS the law that a parent cannot abuse a child, it happens every day. Spouses abuse each other and they divorce or worse, just stop trying to make things better. Can we stop this? Probably not. So, if you are willing to sit there and allow all these things, tell me, why would you not support with enthusiasm, any two people willing to love each other wholly, be responsible for each other fully, raise that 16 year old’s baby with love, respect, financial resources, values, and education, and acceptance and respect for all God’s children, regardless of how He made them come to be or WHOM He made them meant to love? Are you saying God doesn’t know what He’s doing? You know better? Are you saying He’d make any of his children unlovable or unworthy or without the possibility to go to Heaven? Pretty nervy to say you know better than God wouldn’t you say? Not one heterosexual marriage will be affected by it. Not one heterosexual marriage will be prevented by it (except those which would have later ended when the gay partner just couldn’t deny it anymore). There is NO FEAR involved here. Only good things can come of it. Your young pregnant daughters will be grateful for sure, especially since you refuse to teach them birth control measures or give them the self-worth to say no. Please. If you support families and love, you MUST support this. If you’re not gay, it shouldn’t matter to you if someone who is can get married. It won’t change your life one bit, but will make life full of love and commitment for others who deserve it too. We can’t fix everything wrong with the world, but we CAN support more love within it and those who want to be good parents and will be. Isn’t that what God wants from all of us? Love thy neighbor…
Posted by: Lyn Canon | October 12, 2008, 12:19 am 12:19 am
btw…I’m a hetero, married, 45 y/o woman with no kids (tried/failed), and while I’ve met some really nice gay people, I don’t really know any in my daily life today. I just think everyone who feels what I feel for my husband deserves the same ability to be wholly committed for life to that person and see them in the hospital, survivor rights, parental rights, tax rights, and all rights I have. It’s no different. I can’t naturally have kids, they can’t naturally have kids-no different. The love, no different. It doesn’t affect my life one bit except that more happy people in the world is never a bad thing. Weddings are also good for the economy! I personally don’t ‘get it’ because I’m not gay, but I’m not black or asian or in love with Bulldogs or sushi either and yet I can fully respect those who are because they don’t have to be just like me. Isn’t that why America came to ‘be’ in the first place? So we could all be treated equally even if we think, look or act, differently? So we could all have a chance to pursue life, liberty and happiness? So, if you disagree, perhaps you should move to a country that doesn’t want life, liberty and happiness for all? Hmmm.. interesting circle isn’t it? I’m Christian. Some people aren’t. I don’t have the right to insist that they are or that they have the exact same views about everything. I can’t stop folks in Japan from eating whales or horses or whatever, doesn’t mean they don’t have the right to if it’s not against the law there does it. Because we’re each different, amazing ideas happen. Imagine if every single person were exactly like YOU! How boring would that be? Would we still think the world was flat? Would we know what a germ was? Have computers? Think about it. Really, it’s ok to be different. Different is good. Means some people won’t be buying my size 6 shoes! More for me! Dare2Care. Love they neighbor…He or She could be President one day, or perform your by-pass surgery or cure your cancer or intervene when you are mugged saving your life or adopt that child and lead that child to greatness. America. It’s about good things only if people let good things happen. Have you loved today?
Posted by: Lyn Canon | October 12, 2008, 12:47 am 12:47 am
I wish people would take religion out of this issue – as it is NOT a religious issue. Every US Citizen deserves to have the same rights as every other US Citizen. AND if two consenting adults want to be bound in marriage – they should be allowed to! If a Church does not want to sanction it, I could care less. BUT my Government is NOT a Theocracy, and thus should not allow religious views to dictate how it addresses civil issues.
I pay taxes and work hard for everything I have, I should be allowed to provide for my partner as anyone else does. Being Legally married will help me to do that.
Also, I am not Christian, but I am a US Citizen. Why should I have to be held to a religious view I don’t agree with?
Posted by: Virescentgirl | October 13, 2008, 11:18 am 11:18 am
This is so great! Go Connecticut! I’m hetero, married, and live in Virginia…and I hope my state will soon let the hundreds of thousands of gay Virginians become husbands or wives!
Posted by: ANNA | November 12, 2008, 4:28 pm 4:28 pm
What benefits do we reap as a nation to support gay marriage? I believe that this is the devil in the works. If we are going to support something that’s morally wrong, it should be stem cell research. That atleast has a chance to benefit us.
Posted by: hello | November 20, 2008, 8:49 pm 8:49 pm