Poll Cats: Six Days Out

Jake,
Please take a look at the new “Godless” commercial that Sen. Dole is running against Kay Hagan.
It is the most despicable political ad of the cycle!

Jake doesn’t tell you about the race questions in the AP/GfK poll. Nothing but a fraudulent push poll.
Rasmussen +3
Battleground +3
TIPP +4
Zogby +5
Not including the Obama/PUMA effect.

A Brief Guide to the Flat Tax
by Daniel J. Mitchell, Ph.D.
Backgrounder #1866
There is widespread consensus that the current tax system is a complicated failure that hinders the nation’s growth while allowing the politically well-connected to manipulate the system to get special breaks that are not available to average workers and businesses. This is stimulating a great deal of interest in shifting to a sim­ple and fair flat tax. For instance, President George W. Bush has appointed the President’s Advisory Panel on Tax Reform to recommend options for fundamental tax reform,[1] the Department of the Treasury has produced extensive analysis of the flat tax and other reform options,[2] and lawmakers on Capitol Hill are exploring various ways to reform the tax code.
The United States should move quickly to reform its tax system. In a competitive global economy, jobs and capital flow to jurisdictions with better tax law. Tradi­tionally, this process of “tax competition” has benefited the United States, but there is growing evidence that America is falling behind. Nations around the world are lowering tax rates and reforming their tax systems. Indeed, nine countries that were part of the former Soviet Bloc have adopted versions of the flat tax.[3] These pro-growth reforms are yielding impressive results and are a road map for U.S. policymakers.

“Jake doesn’t tell you about the race questions in the AP/GfK poll. Nothing but a fraudulent push poll.”
What a difference a week makes.
That poll was hailed by right wingers last week even though it greatly oversampled evanglicals.

“Ohio
49-40 Obama, 10/27 LA Times/Bloomberg
51-42 Obama, 10/26 Quinnipiac University
48-42 Obama, 10/26 AP/GfK”
This is an example of how some polls will be wrong on election day:
-LATIMES/Bloomberg(10/25 – 10/27): Obama +9 overall;
The poll shows McCain is winning Independents by 11 points
-Quinnipiac Polls (10/22 – 10/26): Obama +9 overall;
The Poll shows Obama is winning independents by 12 points.
Two polls show different candidates winning the independents by big margin(11 and 12 points) while predicting Obama winning OHIO by the same margin(9 points).
The AP/GFK poll shows Obama +6 overall in OHIO, while both candidates receiving similar support among the independents.
Furthermore, how is that the latest Quinnipiac polls show Obama +2 in Florida, +9 in OHIO and +12 in PA, where Obama is receiving low support among Clinton voterS (81%, 71%, and 75% respec.)?. Are the polls underestimating the 18 Million Clinton Voters?
If you think some of the polls are not wrong, then, Do you really think that McCain will win Arizona, North Dakota and Montana by only 5 points or losing NJ by 20 points as per the polls?

“Furthermore, how is that the latest Quinnipiac polls show Obama +2 in Florida, +9 in OHIO and +12 in PA, where Obama is receiving low support among Clinton voterS (81%, 71%, and 75% respec.)?. Are the polls underestimating the 18 Million Clinton Voters?”
71% to 81% is low?
That’s actually close to McCain’s Bush voter from 2004 numbers which range from 78% to 82%
“If you think some of the polls are not wrong, then, Do you really think that McCain will win Arizona, North Dakota and Montana by only 5 points or losing NJ by 20 points as per the polls?”
In AZ McCain should win by greater than 5 pts.
In MT and ND he is facing a formidable Obama ground game.
With Rudy out of the game and McCain campaign’s comments that real America doesn’t include the NY/NJ area, NJ is the Democrats by double digits easily.

Before September 2007, Hao’s name had never appeared in the 15-year-old federal database of campaign contributors. Since then, however, his donations have topped $120,000 — including $70,100 on a single June day to Republican presidential candidate John McCain.
Over the same time frame, a network of Hao relatives has kicked in more. The take from this group over the last 13 months exceeds $269,000, a small amount to Democrats but most of it to McCain and the Republican National Committee, records show.
Hao didn’t register to vote at the northwest suburban address attached to his donations until October 2007, a month after he wrote his first political check, $25,000 to the RNC.
The circumstances surrounding Hao’s sudden and prolific political activism are curious and his whereabouts unclear. His name isn’t listed on property records or the mailbox at the unassuming tract home listed on his donations.
Hao lives “overseas,” insisted a man who answered the door at the Roselle home recently. The man declined to identify himself.

hum……….Montana is going to Obama. reason 1 Ron Paul is on the ballot and he’s gonna split the republican vote. People here will vote that fruit cake because alot of folks out here share his opions… I for one voted Obama he’s gonna win!
Obama 2008

wow
Obama has plans
as this blog and the mccain supporters show…and Palin’s words show
they have spin, innuendo and lying.
throw these bums out
same team
same tactics 9th year.

A Veteran: Why does no first world nation on Earth use a flat tax, with the possible exception of tiny Iceland with it’s 36% tax rate (and fewer people than most US metro areas)?

Part 2: This is an example of how some polls will be wrong on election day:
OHIO: 71% top 81% supporting Obama in OHIO among Democrats (Clinton Voters) are very low
2004 Exit Polls:
Democrats (38%): Kerry 91%(Obama is -10 to -20%) to Bush 8%
Republicans (37%): Bush 94% to Kerry 6%
Independents (24%): Kerry 60% to Bush 39%
2000 Exit Polls:
Democrats : Gore 89%(Obama is -8 to -18%) to Bush 9%
Republicans : Bush 90% to Gore 9%
Independents : Gore 54% to Bush 39%
New York and New Jersey have different voting patterns:
NY 2004 Election Results: Kerry 59% to Bush 40%(+19)
NJ 2004 Election Results: Kerry 53% to Bush 46%(+7)

stfchbb “I’m just floored by the number of people that are willing to throw out capitalism for a guy who looks good and is a smooth talker.”
I’m floored by the number of people who still appear entirely ignorant of Obama’s impressive legislative record in IL, career teaching the Constitution at the graduate level, and depth of policy details laid out in the hundreds of pages of white papers available on his site.
If you think decisions on being made strictly on his ability as an orator, it speaks more to the vapid shallowness of your personal vetting process than that of Obama’s supporters.

If the polls are right then it looks like Obama’s ragtag army of malcontents is going to do what generations of revolutionaries have been unable to: take down the establishment. The Have-nots in this country have always vastly outnumbered the Haves, and the Have-nots possess the power to band together (engage in collective action as Obama says), vote their own into power, and take the wealth of the Haves for themselves. The Have-nots have always backed away from using this power because it is unAmerican and harmful to the country. No more, seemingly.
We are now seeing them rise up, assert their collective power, and begin the process of securing for themselves the accumulated wealth of others. First there will be a soak-the-rich tax system, in which the income of the top 25% will be transferred to the to Obama’s supporters (nobody believes he will go after only the top 5%); next we will see confiscatory death taxes, so that families will no longer be able to provide for the futures of their children; and finally, when all of this is not enough, we will see confiscatory taxes imposed on the property of landowners and business owners.
We have experience of this kind of redistribution and nationalization of wealth in the old USSR and South and Central America. It has the short-term benefit of pleasing political supporters, but the long term effect is disastrous. (Obama will say redistribution is for the sake of fairness, but it is really just to pay off his supporters.) When people cannot keep what they earn or keep what they own the entire economic fabric of society breaks down.
Obama can get power by promising redistribution of wealth, but if he carries through with his threats he will drive this country into a downward economic spiral from which it will not recover for 100 years.
Perhaps many of his supporters don’t care, especially if they are the Have-nots. If they having nothing now they may figure that they do not stand to lose anything by voting in an avowed Socialist. However, these people have no idea of the depths of destitution to which they can fall.
The rich will always take care of themselves. They will move to friendlier countries, taking with them the engines of prosperity. The Have-nots will be left to fend for themselves.

New ethics complaint being filed against Palin:
The complaint against Governor Palin, alleges Misuse of Official Position: “Gov. Palin attempted to and in fact did use her official position for personal gain by securing unwarranted benefits for her daughters…” All the allegations contained in the complaint are related to state reimbursed travel.
(Story at CBS)

Angel;
the difference this time, for whatever polls might be worth… is that the Dems are actively preventing Republicans from purging Dem voters from valid voter registration lists….
altho’ to their ‘credi’t..Republicans are so good at preventng citizens from voting….. they’re at it again in Georgia and Colorado…..

david H.
re: ‘The rich will always take care of themselves. They will move to friendlier countries, …. The Have-nots will be left to fend for themselves.’
that’s a very accurate description of the last 8 years under Bush, Cheney & Republicans…. very keen analysis by you….

Right wing tools are calling Obama a socialist when it was Dubya who gave 700 billion+ dollars to the crooks on Wall St.
So when the government takes OUR tax dollars and gives it to their friends on Wall St, it’s OK. But if the government takes OUR tax dollars and uses it to fix bridges and levees and roads, then it’s wrong.
What a joke! Goodbye right wing corporate tools!

David H…
What is this business about taking power and destroying the U.S. government?
It already happened… years ago. Republican activist, Grover Norquist, said he wanted to starve our governement until it was weak enough to “drown in the bathtub.” No sooner did he say it, than George Bush has tried it.
As a result… we are in debt… our jobs have moved to China… our economy is in shambles… our military stretched thin… our dollar is losing value…
If you cannot see that this all happened under the guidance of the GOP… why would I trust your judgment on who to vote for Nov. 4th?
Worry about Obama hurting America? Bush already hurt America… and McCain wants to continue it.

Among Democrats, Barack Obama is now winning 88 percent support, comparable to John Kerry in 2004 or Al Gore in 2000. It is expected that Obama will scrape up against the 90 percent number on election day.
YOU MADE MY POINT. That’s what these polls say. That’s not what is going to happen. You have been warned.
_____________________________________
I use statistics and you use your crystal ball.. geevill, I always picture you posting from Roswell….

Come on Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, Texas, Michigan, etc. Let’s get this show on the road. Let’s show them some real “Obama” numbers. Even if the lines are 8 hours long…VOTE, VOTE. We are depending upon you. Obama has done his part, its time we do ours! Obama 08

“Impressive Illinois senate record? Are you kidding me? Got anything from this century”
Obama was Senator in IL from 1996 to 2004.
Hopefully Obama gets elected and he does something about the education in this country.
When right wingers can’t do simple arithmetic something is very wrong with our educational system.

JAKE – PLEASE HELP! I can’t find this anywhere – do you know if the Montana (NBC-Mason-Dixon) poll included Ron Paul in the question? Or was it just McCain/Obama? With Paul on the ballot as the constitution candidate, I think Montana could go BLUE…
Also, why is there an asterisk?
Thanks Jake! Love your fairness in all this…

“Better yet name the 3 biggest Obama accomplishments. I’ll spot you one…winning the Democratic nomination. Go ahead.”
Obama brought about taped confessions for capital crimes and worked against racial profiling.
He has fought against discrimination based on sexual orientaion.
And he brought about a tough ethics reform law.
That was just in the IL Senate.

dave:
As a fellow Jew – Sorry, I’m votin’ for Obama. As are all of my Jewish friends and relatives. Sorry to disappoint, but your desperate smear isn’t working.

THREE GROUPS: Forecasts of voting lag, so far
Record turnout was seen for new voters, young, Hispanics
By MOLLY BALL
REVIEW-JOURNAL
Elections
Politics
Graphic by Mike Johnson.
Analysts have predicted that new voters, young voters and Hispanic voters will turn out in record numbers in this election. But as Nevadans continue to flock to the polls, turnout among those three groups is lagging, at least in the early going.

“…a copy of the complaint that Frank Gwartney, a retired lineman in Anchorage filed last Friday, with Alaska’s Attorney General, Talis Colber in Juneau. “Palin ran on the platform of ethics, transparency and anti-corruption. I’m tired of the hypocrisy that exists in Government and people need to know the truth,” said Gwartney.”
“This new ethics complaint comes on the heels of the Federal Elections Campaign complaint filed by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington for spending $150,000 on pricey designer threads.”
Ruh-Roh

“ABC News Kate Snow reports: Governor Palin’s campaign still has not released any information regarding her medical records despite frequent requests from the news media and the campaign’s own assertion that they would release this information soon.
On Sunday morning, Palin spokeswoman Tracey Schmitt told ABC News that the campaign had planned to release information on her medical history early this week.
Today is Wednesday”

You know…the $150,000 spent by the republicans is/was ridiculous! I certainly could have used that money!!! They could have donated that money to CHARITY – Those with ailments that Palin’s child has! Donating the clothes to charity will get them PENNIES on the dollar VS $150,000 CASH! Think of what they could have done with that money!!!
All THREE other candidates paid for their OWN SUITS, SHOES, TIES…Where does putting a woman (broke as Palin is on her $100k salary, NOT) in RENTED clothes make this alright??
Palin said she was going back to her own CONSIGNMENT shop in “Alaskaaaaaa” to get new digs after the election…gee…SHE should have given THAT consignment shop the money!!! Think of how that would have helped a fellow citizen, small busienss owner…INSTEAD…Nordstrom and Neiman Marcus made the money!
GO PALIN support BIG BUSINESS and NOT THE POOR CONSIGNMENT SHOP IN ALAKSA!!!!!!!!
What an idiot! Liar!!
Obama/Biden 2008!

“the Boston Herald has reported that Palin spent more than $51,000 in taxpayers money to renovate the governor’s Anchorage office suite and spruce up her mansion and office in Juneau.”

Senator- When it comes to limits the only thing we need is term limits on how many times Senators can get elected. Just think as soon as Obama gets in all the dough that will come in so you can spend, spend, spend on programs for lobbyists so you can reap the benefits from the top end.

Just think though the poll numbers are mostly home phone numbers of the unworking people looking to reap tax benefits when they do not even pay in. Us working class use cell phones…

“Us working class use cell phones”
The demographics for cell only users skew towards the same demographics that heavily favor Obama.
Besides a few polling outfits do cell only polling in addition to their traditional polling.

Florida is a republican state with a history of fixing presidential elections.
Although Kathleen Harris is history and
Charlie Crist is no Jeb Bush, I still think there will be some hacking of the results.
Pennsylvania should go the other way. Governor Rendell looks like a real old time Democrat. In short, it’s in the bag.

Do not call in sick on election day. Email your employer that you will be voting and you may have to withstand unprecedented lines.
If you can vote absentee ballot in your state at this late date, do it.
Obama/Biden 08!

I think if you don’t pay in to the tax system you shouldn’t get anything out of it. That is, unless you can prove special hardship or critical needs. Life threatening conditions should not be overlooked, children should not be neglected nor the elderly.
Dealing with the poor is not done out of charity. It is done in the interest of society as a whole. If the concentration of wealth becomes too disparate, then the workings of democracy start to break down. Education suffers, crime rises, and the reaction of society is to build more prisons. Eventually a police state evolves. What was once a proud country becomes a democracy in name only, where it’s citizens fear the very people sworn to protect them.