Dissecting the “Bradley Effect”
EmailBarack Obama’s lead over John McCain has reignited debate about the alleged “Bradley effect” – the notion that, in polls, white people lie about voting for a black candidate. It remains, at best, what I called it nine months ago: a theory in search of data.
The Bradley effect and its variants (Wilder effect, Dinkins effect), attempt to explain why the level of support for white candidates was understated, or for black candidates was overstated, in pre-election polls in six biracial contests from 1982 to 1992. That's right – anywhere from 16 to 26 years ago.
Two problems: There are, in fact, beaucoups reasons beyond lying that those polls could have been wrong. And there have been plenty of accurate polls in such contests since.
Consider 2006: Good-quality polls were accurate in five U.S. Senate or gubernatorial elections in which white and African-American candidates faced off. (There was no good, publicly released polling in a sixth). One, in Massachusetts, understated the white candidate by 5 points (not that it mattered in a 55-35 percent blowout); another, in Pennsylvania, understated the black candidate by 5 points (in a 60-40 rout). But as for a consistent Bradley or Wilder effect: It didn’t happen.
Or take the 2008 Democratic primaries: We find 25 good-quality pre-election polls in which Hillary Clinton was understated beyond sampling error, as the Bradley effect posits. But we also see 24 polls in which Obama’s support was understated – the reverse of the Bradley effect. And there were three in which Clinton was overstated, also contrary to the effect. In none was Obama overstated. An additional 21, moreover, were within sampling error on Clinton, as were 23 on Obama.
We also looked at this another way, via the margin between the candidates. In final-week, airworthy polls, Clinton was understated on the margin in five states – but Obama was understated in 10. The gap was close to the final result in seven more.
It seems fair to suggest an effect, to be an effect, should occur with some consistency.
Though not limiting himself to good-quality polls, a Harvard researcher, Daniel J. Hopkins, wrote a paper in August assessing polling data from 133 biracial elections from 1989 to 2006 – “the first large-sample test of the Wilder effect.” Hopkins concludes that there once was an effect; blacks running before 1996 averaged 2.7 percentage points below their poll numbers. “Yet this effect subsequently disappeared,” Hopkins reports. His paper’s title begins: “No More Wilder Effect.”
Beyond arguing general “social desirability” in whites saying they’d vote for a black candidate (and I’m not sure I get that), some theories more specifically suggest that some poll respondents will tailor their stated vote preference to their perception of the interviewer’s race – that whites, for instance, won’t tell a black interviewer they support McCain. Our own, current data tell a different story: We’ve been comparing the race of interviewers and respondents in ABC News/Washington Post polls all year, and we see no such effect.
Among registered voters in a dozen national ABC/Post polls this year, 53 percent of white respondents told white interviewers they supported McCain – as did 52 percent of white respondents speaking with black interviewers. Forty-one percent of whites told white interviewers they supported Obama; an identical 41 percent said the same to black interviewers. And 93 or 94 percent of back respondents backed Obama, regardless of the interviewer’s race. (It’s unclear, moreover, how well respondents can even tell the interviewer’s race in a telephone survey. In one of our recent polls 55 percent identified it correctly, but 23 percent were wrong and 22 percent declined to hazard a guess.)
There is an academic study from 1991 with a contrary finding, saying that whites, when speaking with a white interviewer, were 8 to 11 points more apt to support the white candidate in Doug Wilder’s 1989 Virginia governor’s race. But that was one poll, with just 172 white respondents, carried out by student interviewers – and the report itself footnotes a context effect in the study "that may heighten the race-of-interviewer effect." Our own aggregate data this year, showing no effect, include 7,261 white respondents.
Another concern focuses not on directly lying, but simply ducking the question by declining to state a vote preference at all. In our polls this year, however, the number of respondents who've either declined to answer the horse-race question, or say they have no opinion, is no higher than in past elections, nor do they look different demographically in any way that would suggest that their absence creates bias.
The notion of a Bradley effect is undermined by contemporaneous data as well. As a Pew Research Center memo points out, at the same time that two polls clearly overstated Wilder’s lead in the 1989 Virginia governor’s race, a third gave him a closer, 4-point edge. And while polls in Carol Moseley Braun’s 1992 Senate race understated her white opponent’s support, another, in her primary race, understated her own support, not her white opponents’. Further, while the final WABC/Daily News poll in 1989 overstated David Dinkins’ lead for New York mayor, two weeks earlier it had Dinkins ahead by just 4 points. (He won by 2.) Did New Yorkers suddenly decide to prevaricate?
Consider also a Real Clear Politics piece by Republican pollster Lance Tarrance, who polled in the very 1982 California governor’s race that gave the Bradley effect its name. He calls the concept “a pernicious canard,” and says his own data for Republican George Deukmejian didn’t reflect it. And in a February 1983 report on the Bradley race, California pollster Mervin Field speculated that “racial bias” was a factor, but also offered more concrete reasons for his poll’s error: a heavier than usual and one-sided absentee vote, the presence of a handgun initiative on the ballot and a lower turnout of minority voters than he’d expected.
The turnout issue is critical. When a pollster produces a bad estimate in a pre-election survey, it’s an easy out to blame the respondent. (Visions of New Hampshire are dancing in my head.) But in fact there’s a boatload of ways pre-election polls can go wrong – being done too far from the Election Day, employing poor sampling techniques and, especially, misestimating who’s actually going to vote. It could well be that the absence of a Bradley effect since the mid-’90s isn’t about fewer people lying, but about polls simply producing better likely voter models.
All this leads to the current election. The role of race is a fascinating element, and no one can confidently predict how it’ll play out. One study says polls may be understating Obama by 3 to 4 percentage points nationally. Another, not specific to any reputed polling effect, suggests Obama could be doing as many as 6 points better if it weren’t for latent racism. (I’m skeptical, as usual, and awaiting details on the model.)
Our own study this summer found that there are some whites who are ill-disposed toward a black candidate, but others who are well-disposed to one, and on balance Obama’s support from whites has been around the average for Democratic candidates in the last eight presidential elections. In our latest poll, moreover, 91 percent of registered voters called themselves comfortable with the idea of Obama becoming the first African-American president; 74 percent were "entirely" comfortable with it.
One thing we know for sure is that today’s polls do not predict the election outcome; they simply show where the contest stands today. If the final polls are accurate – as generally they’ve been in the past – a lot of ink will have been spilled on the Bradley effect in vain. If not, there’ll be many places to look. Blaming respondents should not be the first.
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I said to the pollsters in 2000 and 2004 that I was going to vote for the democrats.
I didn’t. I lied.
Was it about race then???
But if I do the same this year with a blackman running for office, I am labled as a racist or it is because of his race. Get a grip.
Fine I’m a racist but here’s the scorecard. I am a racist against whites twice and against blacks once. Seems I would be for blacks and against whites then wouldn’t I.
The only poll that matters is the private one in the voting booth.
Posted by: So now I'm a racist | October 15, 2008, 8:53 am 8:53 am
Isn’t everyone getting a little sick of hearing about RACE from Obama and the MEDIA.
Posted by: Nat Turner | October 15, 2008, 8:57 am 8:57 am
pollsters and pundits are the ONLY people who want to talk about the fabricated Bradley effect!
I am starting to think that the American Public is being prepared for a stolen election!
Posted by: Truth Matters | October 15, 2008, 9:09 am 9:09 am
How come we don’t hear about all the racism against McCain? I personally know about 10 blacks who are voting for Nobama because he is black, they admit it freely, no other reason than they want “one of us” in the white house! The Blacks in this country are the biggest racist in this country, just look at Sharpton and Rev. Wright et al…..
Posted by: KPL | October 15, 2008, 9:21 am 9:21 am
“”"pollsters and pundits are the ONLY people who want to talk about the fabricated Bradley effect!”"”
Gee, ya think?!?
Of course Obama supporters don’t want to talk about it, they even don’t want to think about it. It is instilling fear that Obama may lose this election after you have looked at the polls and have built up your hopes. Too bad.
If this will be like the last two elections and Obama loses. Be prepared for the looney supporters to cry and scream “stolen election”.
Posted by: Thomas D | October 15, 2008, 9:29 am 9:29 am
You know, there are 900-1000 people polled out of how many billions of people living in the US? And people get so hyped up on the poles that they tend to forget that these polls are a miniscule percentage of the population. I find it hard to believe that more people want to vote for Obama and have taxes raised on companies and then people will loose their jobs..It is that simple. Wealth distribution does not work because if you take from the companies, they have to meet their bottom line, even if that means laying off workers. So do you want a little government tax credit check or do you want a full paycheck from your employer? Personally, I would rather earn a salary than depend on the government.
Posted by: Kim | October 15, 2008, 10:07 am 10:07 am
STOP THE PUTRID SWIRL
DIFFERENT TIME (70′S – NOW)
DIFFERENT SCOPE (CALI – USA)
DIFFERENT SITUATION(PEACE-TOTAL CHAOS)
DIFFERENT SITUATION(BUSH/GOP BRAND – CHANGE)
DIFFERENT SITUATION (MCSAME – REAL CHANGE)
DON’T WASTE TIME WITH THIS GARBAGE.
Posted by: Omentum | October 15, 2008, 10:23 am 10:23 am
KPL
For one African Americans always always alway vote democrat. So you cant use that as a count-argument.
Posted by: Omentum | October 15, 2008, 10:26 am 10:26 am
Having voted for Tom Bradley and actively supported him, the buzz on the “Bradley Effect” is more revisionist history than fact. Bradley lost in more part due to conservative initiatives that were on the ballot, that drew out their base in large numbers and also the fact that Reagan (former Governor) was at the height of his popularity. There was a gun control initiative placed on the ballot, that had more to due with the margin of defeat than any “effect”.
Posted by: Mark Reid | October 15, 2008, 10:35 am 10:35 am
I had a dreem last night that OBAMA won
the election thanks to acorn and as president he brought the goverment to it’s knee’s just like all his buddys wanted him to.What is so amazing to me is he is saying that he wants to take the money from all people that made something out of themselves and give it to the ones that did not.HE IS TELLING YOU THIS PLEASE WAKE UP.
Posted by: Mr.I am wright | October 15, 2008, 10:37 am 10:37 am
Time has changed and Americans (white/black/Asian/Indian…) with it. I don’t think
“Bradley Effect” will play. White people who said will vote for a biracial candidate will do it. One may change mind for other reason than racial. If white people did not like Obama ,he would not be the Democratic nominee , he would not be leading constantly on the national polls since the beginning and the on electoral map despite all non-sense and divisive lies said against him from the beginning of the campaign.
Posted by: fred Maton | October 15, 2008, 11:03 am 11:03 am
McCain is just dishonest and show poor leadership. How can he be surprised by racist stupid comments made by his republicans supporters when he his sending Palin out to tie Obama to former terrorist; portray him as not one of Americans; telling dangerous lies about Obama? Today’s America needs a strong leader who brings everybody together; who leaves no one behind. A leader for everybody not just for a group of people. A president of the United States of America not Divided States of America.
Posted by: fred Maton | October 15, 2008, 11:05 am 11:05 am
Wait until these people realize that redistribution of wealth is not about race. So if you are African-American and making a good salary, that you worked hard for, it will be taxed, and those taxes will be used to give a tax break to a white person, who is less educated, and does not try as hard. That’s the way redistibution works, it has nothing to do with race. But when you all realize this, it will be too late. Obama will be President, and the white guy you hate, down the block from was able to buy a brand new car, because of that redistribution of wealth. Can’t wait for Obama to be President, I sure can use a free ride.
Posted by: Angelo | October 15, 2008, 11:26 am 11:26 am
How many people out there are like me.
Where I work ,I don’t tell people that I’m going to vote for Obama because I would catch to much heat, I work with 12 people and they all love guns and stuff.
They vote Republican it does not matter who is own there ticket. Now 4 of us are voting obama but no one is owning up to it. Remember we have to work there. We are white males all of us. So I think the polls are understated for Obama. I have never voted dem before.
Posted by: Mark Roberts | October 15, 2008, 11:32 am 11:32 am
I have a really hard time not continually bursting out laughing at the “Bradley Effect.” Look, polls are confidential, nobody’s name is published, and folks in the household don’t know the questions being asked.
SO, YOU MEAN TO TELL ME that a White RACIST is TOO SCARED to tell a pollster promising confidentiality that he’s going to vote for McCAIN???
This is just TOO RIDICULOUS to bear. ROFL…… Sure, there’s racism, but it’s already factored into the polls, the racist voters figured out what race Obama was a long long time ago. Good grief.
I believe in free speech quite strongly, but I’m considering public lashings with wet noodles for the noodle-brains pushing the bradley effect. Puh-leeze.
Posted by: P. R. Finn | October 15, 2008, 12:03 pm 12:03 pm
I have heard twice on a newscast that 80-85% of blacks intend to vote for Obama but never a mention that that might have its roots in racism. It is dishonest of the media to only discuss what is perceived to be potential racism among some whites.
Posted by: luvstodancealot | October 15, 2008, 1:42 pm 1:42 pm
In the Old South, a person was black if he had any Negroid ancestry.
By the same argument, a person should be considered white if he has any Caucasian ancestry but nobody says Sen. Obama is white.
ABCs language betrays its bigotry. Sen. Obama is of mixed racial ancestry, period. If elected, he will not be the “first black president.”
Posted by: realitycheck | October 15, 2008, 2:26 pm 2:26 pm
This is the biggest non-story of the election. There is no “Bradley Effect” involved in this race. You have a hugely unpopular Republican President, 2 wars, and a global economic disaster largely contributed to that President. Obama has received vast amounts of contributions from all racial and economic levels because people want this country to go in a different direction. I don’t believe he’s up 14% int the polls…I think it’s more like 20%. It’s going to be a ridiculous blowout on November 4th because Republicans have driven this country into the ground and most people are tired of it.
Posted by: DMan | October 15, 2008, 3:25 pm 3:25 pm
A person is not a racist because they decide to vote for someone who happens to be of the same race. But you are a racist if you won’t vote for someone who is not the same race as you because you believe him/her to be inferior because of race.
Black people voting for Obama, assuming they have ever voted in a presidential election, have by necessity voted for a white person. Choosing to vote for a qualified candidate of the same race in this election, doesn’t make them racist.
On the other hand, if you’re not voting for Obama because of his race, you are racist.
Posted by: MoVoice | October 15, 2008, 5:35 pm 5:35 pm
I don’t understand why anyone would not give their true opinion in a pol, as some of these people have done. If people do that, they work against their true choice and it runs the opponents ratings up. There are undecided or uncomitted voters that just want to be ‘on the winning end’ that will be swayed. In effect, the incorrect polls could be swaying people away from their own true choice. ‘Splain it to me Ricky’. Just makes no sense. What is to be gained?
Posted by: DS | October 15, 2008, 6:59 pm 6:59 pm
OK PERSONALLY I THINK PEOPLE ARE MAKING THIS TO BE ABOUT WHAT COLOR WE ARE,THAN WHICH PRESIDENT IS RIGHT FOR US..I AM WHITE AND I VOTE FOR OBAMA.HE ISNT JUST FOR THE BLACK PEOPLE, HIS MOTHER WHOM RAISED HIM WAS WHITE..HIS GRANDPARENTS WHO LIVED THREW THE GREAT DEPRESSION WERE WHITE TOO..HE HAS BOTH IN HIS FAMILY NOT JUST BLACK..PEOPLE NEED TO THINK ABOUT THAT, BF THEY START SAYING THEY ARENT VOTING FOR HIM BECAUSE HE IS BLACK!!!!THANK YOU
Posted by: Kelly | October 15, 2008, 10:30 pm 10:30 pm
I believe new President McCain did a great job at all the information. This debate has boosted him several notches up the ladder and answered my questions where I had uncertainty.
Posted by: Frances | October 15, 2008, 10:39 pm 10:39 pm
Senator McCain made key points on his economic plan. He clearly was speaking to the average american wanting to achieve the american dream.
Posted by: julia griffin | October 15, 2008, 11:27 pm 11:27 pm
I’m so sick of the media’s obsession with race when the candidates have worked to distance themselves from the issue.
Obama campaign has stated repeatedly they don’t think race is going to matter and have confidence in America. This stupid issue has been the media’s toy and it pathetic.
Posted by: Chris | October 15, 2008, 11:29 pm 11:29 pm
Here is the real issue if you had to question your vote because of race you are a racist. The reality is that Black people have always voted for a white president, da! Are we now in some new category because we have an opportunity to vote for a qualified candidate who happens to be Black and white. Wake up people the only ones that are concerned are those that continue to hate based on hate. I personally choose to live my life unafraid for all I have to fear is fear itself oh yeah and another eight years of disgrace as an American. Vote 08 “Yes we can”. Barack Obama
Posted by: Ruth | October 16, 2008, 12:11 am 12:11 am
I don’t think that Black people are being racist for voting for Obama. They have been voting for white people since America has had the voting process. The only presidential nominees are white. So this time a lot of people are voting for a man who is mixed race. Big deal. This is not the 50s. I think ther are a lot more racial mixed marriages, schools, work and churches. So I am thinking that Obama is being voted fairly. I think McCain/Palin had it wrong with their campaign ads, saying that Obama was a terrorist, and whatever else they were trying to do.
Posted by: jane | October 16, 2008, 1:10 am 1:10 am
You think things are bad now, if Obama gets in , Lord help us…
Posted by: Karren | October 16, 2008, 5:08 am 5:08 am
go will intervene to stop any name effect,america has come a long way.
Posted by: agi anthony agi | October 16, 2008, 5:54 am 5:54 am
How Many people really have ever been “Polled” regarding any Presidential Election? I can go through my community which is a suburb of Philadelphia and not meet one person. I can then go into my workplace which is a conglomerate of many neighborhoods in and around Philadelphia of Law Enforcement Officers and their extended families and again I asked the question. Has anyone ever been polled? The reply was the same, No. The Polls are what the Media wants the public to see and how “they” want the vote to go.
Posted by: John McLaughlin | October 16, 2008, 8:09 am 8:09 am
John McLaughlin- I have said the same thing throughout this election cycle since the primary elections. I agree with you totally on this.
Posted by: Chris | October 16, 2008, 9:45 am 9:45 am
Hello Mr. Obama-wake up-whether you knew ACORN was going to fake thousands of voter registrations your way or not-you made an 800,000.00 bad decision. I do not want you in a presidential capacity making trillion dollar mistakes in office.
Posted by: Cheryl Austin | October 16, 2008, 11:02 am 11:02 am
How come we don’t hear about all the racism against McCain? I personally know about 10 blacks who are voting for Nobama because he is black, they admit it freely, no other reason than they want “one of us” in the white house! The Blacks in this country are the biggest racist in this country, just look at Sharpton and Rev. Wright et al…..
First off I’m so tired of people judging an entire race on the actions of one or two people. I am an undecided voter I look at this race for the white house not for the color of their skin but their key agenda’s when dealing with our economy. See the comments made above is made to have a divide between races,if the economy hurt we all hurt. Debt knows no color lines if you have a disagreement with something someone is saying or has said. Then judge their actions independently.
Posted by: Blake53 | October 16, 2008, 11:09 am 11:09 am
Certainly the media wants to elect our president by sugesting that people will vote for OBAMA. What they don’t show what Joe the Plumber told Obama about the taxes that he will impose to those who makes more than 250k a year.
You don’t see that on cbs, abc, msnbc, cnn, because they all want us to vote for OBAMA
Posted by: Real_Thinker | October 16, 2008, 11:28 am 11:28 am
Since the time former male slaves were given the vote, Black people have voted for white candidates, and against white candidates. Things will never change, people will continue to vote for the individual they believe will take care of their interests and needs.
I would vote for Barack Obama whatever color he was. His proposed policies and his generally stated philosopy on the future of our country would be why.
I could never vote for John McCain. I despise his manner of campaigning, and have yet to get his definitive ideas for where this country is heading. He may be too old to direct us into the future, spends too much time in the past…he served this country well during his time, but his time has passed. As for Sarah Palin…less said the better. Was she the only “qualified” Republican woman who would run with McCain? Apparently.
Posted by: NatFrankie | October 16, 2008, 1:42 pm 1:42 pm
Please stop this Bradley mess, Obama won his primary in Iowa, where was the Bradley effect? and how many of us lied. Stop it, enough is enough. His campaign was never on blackness it was Americans, all Americans. You news media people need to stop planting seeds in good people mind most of these young people has no idea about the Bradley effect. Stop Stop… Please…..
Posted by: Priska | October 16, 2008, 1:47 pm 1:47 pm
Montana and North Dakota love OBAMA !
Posted by: philosopherkingtomas | October 16, 2008, 3:17 pm 3:17 pm
Random samples for all these polls are pulled from databases of landline telephone numbers. But, in the past few years, local telephone companies lost over 10% of their residential landline customers. Many people, mostly young, have disconnected their telephone landlines and use only cell phones. As far as I know, there are no directories of cell phone numbers available for polling, thus the cell-only users are not represented in the samples. How are pollsters adjusting for that missing segment of the population? Are they assuming that this group will split evenly between the 2 candidates? Demographically, the people who disconnect landlines would seem to track more closely to Senator Obama’s supporters. Couldn’t this sample gap have a greater impact on political projections than the Bradley effect?
Posted by: ACR | October 16, 2008, 3:58 pm 3:58 pm
Obama just needs to stay cool. His campaign is getting all the help it needs with McCain acting like an idiot.
Posted by: Lily Bell | October 16, 2008, 5:06 pm 5:06 pm
The effect will definitely kick in on voting day. McCain will win that day. Too many tell pollsters they are for Obama because they don’t want to appear as racist. Also, I see many local signs in the lawns supporting democratic House and Senate candidates but do NOT display an Obama sign.
I will say this, if McCain wins narrowly there will be blacks rioting thinking it was fixed. Count on it! It always happens.
Posted by: DBS | October 16, 2008, 8:28 pm 8:28 pm
i think the so called Bradley effect is bull for this simple reason. If you dont want to vote for someone, you dont have to list your reason. Just say you disagree with his policies and be done with it. No one would know if your were a racist or not, even if you were. So, this whole theory is a media concoction. Polls inherently are inaccurate up to 5% either way, but race of the candidate isnt the reason.
Posted by: jay | October 17, 2008, 12:58 am 12:58 am
I never thought this day would come, I am a 57 year old female and have voted Democrat since I was 18 years old, but not this time, this time I am McCain all the way. It has to do with trust, I want someone like McCain leading when and if we are attacked again, I know he has the USA’s best interest in his heart, I can never trust Obama. It has nothing to do with Obama being black,even though I know plenty of blacks who are voting for Obama soley because he is black, I wonder why the news stations have not done a survey on that side? maybe, they feel it might be racist.
Posted by: Lucina Sierra | October 17, 2008, 3:09 am 3:09 am
The race card goes one way doesn’t it. How many blacks are voting for Obama because he’s black? How many won’t vote for McCain because he’s white? How many whites in the rural areas of the country, like mine in Pa., would never say they would vote for a black man in public but will in the privacy of the booth? I would bet the black vote for the black candidate would be overwhelmingly bias compared to the white vote for the white candidate. But of course that’s OK, even spoken out loud.
What happened to just pick who you feel will do the best job and don’t worry about what color they are?
Posted by: joe | October 17, 2008, 9:32 am 9:32 am
98% of blacks will vote for Obama, can they be called racists? If whites say we are going to vote for McCain, they’ll be called racist?
Black people always play the race card. If Obama loses, they will blame the white people.
I remember when singer Michael Jackson was the mess of child molestation problem, many black (even famous black people) stood by him and some said “this is all about race”. How did it turn out? Michael Jackson didn’t even dare to face the boy (his accuser).
It’s the same here, black people should use thier brain rather than their race. If you think McCain will do better for this country, forget about your race and do what is right for this country.
Posted by: sam | October 17, 2008, 11:54 am 11:54 am
Is Barack Hussain Obama qualified to be President of the United States?
Wake Up America, drawing a parallel between today and a time in history where the world saw the rise of Hitler in Germany. It is a sobering lesson worth everyone’s consideration. This is why this election is so very crucial. Who do we really want in the office of president to stand up to Ahmadinejad, Putin, Chavez, al-Qaida, et al? Obama is an appeaser not so unlike Neville Chamberlain. We need a principled Winston Churchill-type man like McCain confronting our nation’s enemies from a position of strength. Do we have to repeat history or can we learn from it?
Just look at all the experience Obama has! He was a community organizer. He got out there and made things happen! He got people (perhaps homeless ones) to register to vote. That is accomplishing something. OK, so maybe those folks won’t actually ever contribute to the tax roles, and yes they will most likley be the one’s the wealth gets reditrbuted to, but they are still part of America. And if no one went and picked them up and drove them to the polls, they might have never voted!
Go ACORN! I’m registering my hamster to vote too!
Posted by: Nicolas127 | October 17, 2008, 11:55 am 11:55 am
If McCain gets into office it will be just like Rudy Guiliani in New York. Ugh!!!
Posted by: VJ | October 17, 2008, 12:56 pm 12:56 pm
Nicolas127: We need a principled Winston Churchill-type man like McCain confronting our nation’s enemies from a position of strength.
well said…couldn’t agree more!!!! Good points!!!BRAVO!
Posted by: sam | October 17, 2008, 12:59 pm 12:59 pm
I’m black but I will not vote for Obama because I don’t want any mockery from our enimies. Period.
Libya Col Muammar Gaddafi referred to Obama as “our Kenyan brother”, Col Gaddafi also said Mr Obama might suffer from an inferiority complex because of his African origins.
Gadhafi said Obama would have an “inferiority complex” because he is black and if elected he might “behave worse than whites.”
“We fear that Obama will feel that, because he is black with an inferiority complex, this will make him behave worse than the whites,” Gadhafi told a rally at a former U.S. military base on the outskirts of the Libyan capital Tripoli.
“This will be a tragedy,” Gadhafi said. “We tell him to be proud of himself as a black and feel that all Africa is behind him because if he sticks to this inferiority complex he will have a worse foreign policy than the whites had in the past.”
He was speaking before thousands of cheering supporters at a ceremony to celebrate the 38th anniversary of the departure of U.S. troops from Libya.
Posted by: laola | October 17, 2008, 1:02 pm 1:02 pm
laola, after reading your post I want to vote for him even more then I did before.
Posted by: joe | October 17, 2008, 1:49 pm 1:49 pm
I tell all my black friends that I am voting for Obama but secretly I’ll either write in Hillary or vote for McCain., Anybody bu tthat terrorist tainted No-BAMA and his friends that like to blow up buildings, kill police officers and worship Charles Manson likes Mrs Ayers does. After all its the least I can do to screw up the polls and make the mainstream media look like the idiots that they really are.
Posted by: jimbo | October 17, 2008, 4:20 pm 4:20 pm
I am a Black women that has voted my entire adulthood, I voted for whites in each and every election. Yes, I am voting for Obama and it is not because he is bi-racial, it is because I believe he will lead us out of this war and financial mess that we are in. I had the opportunity to vote for Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton but I did not because they were not a choice I even considered. So, before you accuse blacks of voting for Obama because he is bi-racial think! We want the best for OUR country also!
Posted by: Emilianna | October 17, 2008, 4:29 pm 4:29 pm
I am a white woman living in NYC. If Obama was an honest and decent person, I would vote for him. I was ready to vote for the Dems this year (though I never did vote for Bush). I think it is about time there were other races and women in higher office. However, he is not honest. He is dangerous. He could be another STalin or Hitler. The fact is that he has completely bought the media. Did anyone notice the night of the debate he had his commercials run while the commentators were deciding on who won the debate? There are very important issues that the media either won’t cover such as Obama getting donations from terrorist backed foreign states. Such as his ties with Odinga. Such as his voting consistently in favor of killing live babies that managed to live thru the torture of an abortion, and then denying it and saying he was pro-life!! Such as his 20 year close personal relationship with the phoney preacher who teaches such hatred from his pulpit as to make him an abomination to all Christians. Such as his criticism of FOX news for DARING to cover stories that may question him in any way – and this in an environment where every major network is so heavily biased in his favor. Such as his lying about his record every chance he gets. Such as playing the Good Cop and being totally unflappable while his cronies work in the background to threaten and coerce his detractors. We live in a free country and I want it to stay that way. If he wins it will be because of the reaction against Bush. McCain is the fall guy. Obama is a fraud. He hates this country and wants to make it socialist. The truth will all come out when he is in office. Then it will be too late. Like that woman who told a pollster that she would not vote for Obama and the next thing the secret service was at her door claiming she threatened the president. It never happened. She demanded they look at the tape of the phone call and the Obama pollster conveniently said they did not have it. Bet most of you did not hear this story in the media. And what about ACORN. He gave them $800,000. They are now signing up dead people, Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck. This is a stolen election. Unless everyone gets out and votes. Go McCain!
Posted by: Kathy | October 17, 2008, 7:35 pm 7:35 pm
The bottom line is people are tired of the same old thing! Nothing is working, everything is failing and all the stupid media can do is drum up race related issues! Give us a break! I don’t care if Obama was white I would vote for him because he offers the best solution to halt an 8 year run away problem! Race? Who cares!
Posted by: Bea | October 17, 2008, 10:30 pm 10:30 pm
What I can’t figure out is where are all these mysterious “Poll People?” See, the strange thing is I’ve never met one………….
Posted by: Jess | October 17, 2008, 11:29 pm 11:29 pm
Obama was raised by a white mother and grandmother and is biracial. America steps back 40 years everytime the media tries to bring this up and further divides the nation. Nightline journalist are very obviously biased in their reporting but hooray for John Stossel’s show tonight on 20/20. What a fresh of breath air – he really did a great job of fair and balanced!!! Good Show!
Posted by: mco | October 18, 2008, 12:15 am 12:15 am
Why do we need to dissect the Bradley Effect? if all Americans aren’t fed up with the mismanagement of the country over the past 8 years we deserve what we don’t get a NEW DIRECTION. Why is it so unbelievable that we have an intelligent, articulate, educated and one of the most viable candidates ever to run for president, that oh by the way, is BI-RACIAL!! It’s really pathetic as i read some of the comments in this blog that we have not moved farther along in our biases and belief in misinformation. I wonder how many current Republicans, Democrats or independents would be in office today were it not for the black vote, or hispanic vote or asian vote and on and on. WAKE UP AMERICA! are you better off now then you were 8 yrs ago? before the Republicans took office??? be real…
Posted by: GeeMac | October 18, 2008, 12:51 am 12:51 am
I do not about anyone else, but I am sick and tired of this race turning into a race war. Here is the real deal we are all suffering loss right now, we have love ones dying in a war that this country is spending $10 billion a month on, people are losing their jobs, homes,and are killing them selves over these posessions. We have had people calling people out of their names and then they have the audacity to have Pastors get out and disgrace their office by praying to God and asking him to dam a country, and one praying that a certain party is praying to false gods. Truly you all must know that God is not pleas with any of this, black, white, hispanic, asian etc. During 911 United We Stood. Come November 4th Divided We Fall. Now I ask the question to any of you What is Jesus Thinking?
I don’t know but I would hate for this country to turn back 40 years even though I know there has alway been racism, bigotry and hatred. But this one thing I know, “How can you say that you love God whom you have never seen, and hate your brother (black, white, hispanic, asian etc.) whom you see every day.”
I had the privilege to serve for the best country in the world and I often times spoke to people from another nation that said I would love to live in America, what a wonderful country to to be from?
I ask the question “Is it really?”
Come on America lets “Stand Together Once Again”
Posted by: Tired of the Hype | October 18, 2008, 3:21 am 3:21 am
If you vote against Obama, you are a racist. Or so the media and Obamaites would have you think. I have more respect for the American people and their judgement. Obama will lose on his own merits and integrity (or lack thereof)
Posted by: Rob | October 18, 2008, 10:42 am 10:42 am
It is disappointing to hear other working mothers who have longed to have a woman elected now shrink from the chance because Palin is not their ideal choice. Wake up – we have an opportunity to have a real working mom push issues such as better daycare programs. Don’t fall for an Ivy League LAWYER from the Chicago Machine just because he seems different. He’s another “hypothetical” intellectual, as this country has seen before. As wonderful of a humantitarian as Jimmy Carter is, he was only effective as President in a few limited ways suited to his intellect. If you read about his presidency you will see the similarities to Obama. There is nothing new under the sun, as anyone over the age of thirty-five knows. At least McCain has been through certain cycles and has the Rolodex to call upon tried and true experts to serve with him – and it appears as he has always held to his own opinions, sometimes with Bush and sometimes against. Given that, at least a working, family woman sitting in the executive branch will by sheer nature tend to highlight certain issues – and thats for WOMEN of ALL colors! In case you are wondering, I am a Democrat but I own a history book (and a calculator -$250K per HOUSEHOLD is a lot different than per PERSON).
Posted by: Lis | October 18, 2008, 12:27 pm 12:27 pm
Senator Obama is just better than Senator McClain. If he have of chosen another running mate, then Senator Obama would of had a real job. Since he didn’t, Senator McClain just made it easy. When Senator McClain went negative, he would have had a better chance. If Senator McClain had of ran like one of his previous election, he would have had a chance. Now, he is trying the same old President Bush’s fear. Instead of being foreign fear, they are making it home grown. This will cause a civil war in this country and nobody wants to even think about it or talk about it. Senator Obama is a leader. While can’t you realize it and understand that doing the right thing for this country is the only choice for everybody and not the few elect. I am sorry; we can’t fight your manmade wars any longer. We can’t sit by and listen to your liars any longer. Please stop spinning lies and fear, because it is over. People just want to get their lives back together and move on to something better. They will also need our help and I don’t have a problem with giving help in whatever shape, form, or fashion that Senator Obama wants to us to do as a president.
Posted by: Jose | October 18, 2008, 4:26 pm 4:26 pm
If anything you should be concerned about media OVER EXPOSURE! I can’t turn the TV on without seeing Obama ! He even has his own TV channel now, and is in video games! I shake when I see the OBAMA bumper stickers and feel sick when see the multicolor “Che” HOPE signs !
Posted by: SUFFERING OBAMA- PHOBIA | October 19, 2008, 8:19 am 8:19 am
Jose,
Don’t worry Amigo!
Obama will help all your friends, too.
There are plenty of free stuffs that you all will receive as promised by Obama.
Obama will lead you into your dream path and you don’t even have to worry about your green card.
Posted by: Voter In America | October 19, 2008, 8:43 am 8:43 am
Lis,
There are women who feel INFERIOR to Sarah Palin in terms of her appearance and her political success. It’s kind envy thing!
It’s OK. When they realize that Obama will take their hard-earned dollars and give to the less-earned people, you will see US to be another Cuba, Venezuela, China, etc…
Posted by: Voter In America | October 19, 2008, 8:47 am 8:47 am
I don’t think I’ve ever felt as nauseated as I am after reading the bulk of these comments.
I wonder how many others — regardless of their position on the political spectrum — feel the same after reading slanderous, misinformed, biased, and frankly uneducated comments by those who have nothing to do but prove how big of tools they are.
I think the biggest problem with U.S. voters in general are their emotional investments in parties and candidates that largely go unchecked — and the way conveniently biased “reporting” from various sources appeals to this irrational side and tricks them into thinking the misinformation they’re spoonfed on their biased news station is a lot more legitimate than it is.
I can’t stand the way people offhandly call Obama or McCain corrupt, racist, fake, dangerous, socialist, and unjust. It’s pretty easy to throw rocks around when the obviously miniscule time you take out of your day (or week) to review the elections comes from EITHER Bill O’Reilly or some little no-name political blog that does nothing but embellish any possible fault of a disliked candidate. Instead of having any empathetic sense, people who read and watch this trash continue to slander from the sidelines like the useless impressionable and uniformed citizens they are.
Blacks are the REAL racist ones? Obama is going to “change” things? Women resent Palin out of jealousy? “Obamaites” this, and “McSame” that? Obama is just going to “take” your “hard-earned” money? McCain “doesn’t understand America?” Mickey Mouse is going to actually PHYSICALLY VOTE with an UNPROCESSED BALLOT and sway the results? You’re voting McCain because he “loves his country” and so do you? Joe the Plumber’s concerns aren’t valid because someone dug up his personal financial information?
I don’t even consider myself an independent voter (I’ve already made my decision), and I’m still utterly disgusted at the reader responses here. Don’t bother trying to read up on the mud that those on the other side of the political spectrum are trying to sling for a little bit of your own reasoning practice. Don’t bother trying to play devil’s advocate or develop the ability to coherently argue the points you believe in. Just go congregate in your college current events forums, gun owners clubs, and weekly cribbage sessions with people who give you a source of comfort from being the exact same as you — and keep on sacrificing intelligent judgment for a peace of mind and a twisted sense of belonging courtesy of your choice of inane news.
Give yourselves a hand; you’re our voting force.
Posted by: Disgusted | October 19, 2008, 7:21 pm 7:21 pm
I’m an African American, you might just say a black man. I know 98% of black will vote for Obama because he’s black. Remember, he’s not US African American like us, he’s Kenya (African) American. See the difference? My family have been here for more than 200 years, they were slaves, some fought in the civil war, they became free, and after that they suffered segregation and discrimination till 1960s. My grandparents and my parents and relatives marched along with Dr. King. My parents were not allowed to share the same bus or restaurants or rest rooms with White. Look at Obama, his father was from Kenya, didn’t suffer the prejudice like we, the African American in the US had to suffer. He went to good colleges where we African American in the US wouldn’t even dreamed of going that time.
Now, Obama is getting all support from black people because he is black. His people are using his skin color to get black peoples’ vote. And he uses his pictures with his White mother and white grandparents to get White peoples’ vote. He’s nothing but an opportunist who is playing his race so well in this game.
Who really is this Obama guy? Is he really one of us? Can we really trust him?
Posted by: Real African American | October 19, 2008, 9:50 pm 9:50 pm
we don’t need to make things so complicated. Just take a look at the past 10 presidential elections after the Civil Rights Act was passed in 1964:
1968 winner: Republican;
1972 winner: Republican;
1976 winner: Democrat;
1980 winner: Republican;
1984 winner: Republican;
1988 winner: Republican;
1992 winner: Democrat;
1996 winner: Democrat;
2000 winner: Republican;
2004 winner: Republican;
These results cannot be any clearer. Democrats only won 3 out of 10 presidential elections since the Civil Rights Act was passed in 1964. The majority of the country (meaning whites) were rejecting the Party which was favored by the Blacks.
Race has always been a factor in the US presidential elections. This year will not be different. The only difference is the voters are not comfortable to tell the pollsters that they are voting against a black candidate.
Posted by: DelegateMath | October 20, 2008, 9:55 am 9:55 am
Have you considered those who SAY they’ll vote for McCain (Repub/white) because they don’t want to admit they’re going to vote for Obama (Dem/black)? This could be a larger group because the only reason to give a bogus answer in the polls is to make it look like the other candidate will win. I think people are more likely to keep disagreeable things to themselves. I’m sure there are a lot of “redneck” couples/people out there who WILL vote for Obama because deep down they figure 4 more years of McBush economics isn’t going to help the country, but they’re reluctant to admit they’ll vote Obama now (esp since what’s left of the “base” seems extremely upset/radical now – like maybe some wife beating types). Interesting theory but as someone said it only matters what happens on election day.
Posted by: Chris | October 20, 2008, 10:27 am 10:27 am
I’m an African American, you might just say a black man. I know 98% of black will vote for Obama because he’s black. Remember, he’s not US African American like us, he’s Kenya (African) American. See the difference? My family have been here for more than 200 years, they were slaves, some fought in the civil war, they became free, and after that they suffered segregation and discrimination till 1960s. My grandparents and my parents and relatives marched along with Dr. King. My parents were not allowed to share the same bus or restaurants or rest rooms with White. Look at Obama, his father was from Kenya, didn’t suffer the prejudice like we, the African American in the US had to suffer. He went to good colleges where we African American in the US wouldn’t even dreamed of going that time.After his school, we brought back one white wife (who was not Obama’s mother) and went back to Kenya. He didn’t even serve this country and didn’t even pay tax to this country.
Now, Obama is getting all support from black people because he is black. His people are using his skin color to get black peoples’ vote. And he uses his pictures with his White mother and white grandparents to get White peoples’ vote. He’s nothing but an opportunist who is playing his race so well in this game.
Who really is this Obama guy? Is he really one of us? Can we really trust him?
Posted by: Lilo | October 20, 2008, 12:18 pm 12:18 pm
Chris :
You seem to advocate a different theory which is not the subject matter here. Of course, your theory is based on one big false assumption: McBush.
One can counter your theory simply by quoting McCain:
“I am not Bush. If you want to run against Bush, you should run 4 years ago”.
Posted by: DelegateMath | October 20, 2008, 12:19 pm 12:19 pm
I DO NOT WHAT IS WRONG WITH AMERICANS, OBAMA ORIGINATED FROM KENYA, HE IS NOT PART OF THAT BLACK GENERATION WHO SUFFERED HUNDREDS OF YEARS AGO, HE IS AN OPPOTUNIST WHO IS USING BLACKS,AND IT IS WRONG, PEOPLE SHOULD WAKE UP, HE IS PLAYING HIS CARDS RIGHT. CAN AN AMERICAN WITH A WHITE AMERICAN FARTHER GO AND LEAD KENYA? EVEN IN AN PART OF AFRICA? THAT IS IMPOSSIBLE, IAM BLACK, BUT I CANNOT SUPPORT OBAMA, U CAN SEE THE MEDIA IS ALLOVER HIM. AMERICA WAKE UP DONT GIVE YOUR COUNTRY TO A KENYAN TECHICALLY. GOD BLESS.
Posted by: he | October 23, 2008, 11:09 am 11:09 am