What If…All These Polls Are Wrong?

If there is a clear winner on Tuesday and this isn’t tied up in the courts, we will have one of two headlines:
“Dewey Defeats Truman”
or
“Mission Accomplished”

The only poll that matters??
NOV 4!!!
VOTE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

what if a frog had wings.
he wouldn’t bump his ass on the ground every time he hopped
you need more rest Jake

I don’t really believe in polls, Nov 4th is all that matters. However the only polls that have O really high now are from the people who are slanted in his direction, cnn, newsweek, nbc. Rasmussen +3 Obama, Gallup +2 Obama and what is the other one the most accurate from 04, factor in the undecideds and McCain can win this thing.

The polls show them neck and neck in Missouri. I’ve lived in Missouri all my life. I’ll be shocked if Obama wins, no matter what the polls say. I know too many Democrats like myself, who are planning to vote McCain but would never admit it publically. You won’t see a McCain sign on my lawn, or a bumper sticker on my yard. There’s too much anger/tension for me to risk getting my tires slashed. I’ve been a Democrat my entire life, and I’ll be voting for a Republican for the first time in my life. I know too many Democrats voting McCain to believe he won’t carry this state. I also know people who’ve told Obama campaigners they are voting Obama – just to get them to leave.

The polls are wrong. Just a few weeks ago there was a story that showed people say that they are voting for Obama when asked on the phone but when they were asked online, they voted differently.
Democrat for McCain/Palin

All the polls are wrong? That’s not Marvel’s “What If?”. That’s DC Comic’s old “Imaginary Stories”. Or maybe “Tales of the Bizzaro World”.
You know the ones… Lois Palin gets exposed to blue kryptonite and she gains the intellegence and political saavy of evil genius Lex Rove, displacing Clark McCain in his heroic role as Republicman…

At our family reunion on Labor Day, my entire extended family was gathered. My aunt said she got a call from Gallup, asking if she would participate in a survey. She took the poll, and indicated she was an Obama supporter. I asked her why on earth she did that, and she said she was afraid not to. She told me that I had an excuse not to vote for him because I’m a Republican, but “everyone knows I’m a Democrat.” All my relatives, mostly older than fifty, said the same thing. They’d never admit they were voting McCain, even though they are. My family is split between Dems/Repubs. We are ALL voting for McCain except my 24-yr old deluded daughter.

Rasmussen was less than .5% off in their prediction for the electoral vote in 2004.

Damn right something’s wrong with the polls when most of my Democratic friends are voting McCain, but won’t talk about it in public. My wife opens the door to Obamabots and says, yeah, I’m sure voting Obama! Then she closes the door and laughs

Speaking of imaginary stories, thanks for cutting and pasting prime examples of the genre. It just goes to show that even the most outrageous lies can be easily formatted to superficially resemble a newspaper story, by folks with a Karl Rove/Swiftboat respect for truthiness.

E_DAY – 6: ELECTORAL COLLEGE EV POLLS
2008
Obama 364
McCain 157
Tie 17
2004
Bush 281
Kerry 236
Tie 21
State-by-State Polls Are What Matters And Always Predict The Winer.

I am a democrat in Ohio and voting for Palin/MacCain.

“The polls are wrong. Just a few weeks ago there was a story that showed people say that they are voting for Obama when asked on the phone but when they were asked online, they voted differently.
Democrat for McCain/Palin”
…
Could that have been a FOX News story?
No polling firm uses online polling without the words “this is not a scientific survey.” I doubt you are a Democrat.

CNN says no thanks to Obama half-hour
By James Hibberd
LOS ANGELES (Hollywood Reporter) – CNN has rejected an attempt by the Barack Obama campaign to purchase airtime for its primetime ad Wednesday night.
“We did not want to pre-empt our programing lineup with a 30-minute spot,” a CNN spokesman said Tuesday. “We’d rather use our air to continue to cover the campaign, candidates and issues like we always do from all points of view with the best political team on television.”
MSNBC is planning to air the ad along with its broadcast partner NBC. Sources said Fox News was not approached by the Obama campaign.
CNN and Fox News said they plan to cover the ad as part of their usual nightly news programing. “CNN will cover it as a news story, just like we do with all the other campaign ads,” it said.
The Obama campaign’s unusual purchase of a half-hour of primetime has generated considerable curiosity about the ad’s content. “Saturday Night Live” mocked the ad last week, sight unseen.
NBC, Fox, CBS, Univision and MSNBC will carry the ad in full. Fox will air the ad as lead-in to the disrupted conclusion of Monday night’s World Series game, which was halted after six innings because of rain.
Reuters

“I lied to Rassmuessen and Gallop and told them I was voting for Obama. I am actually voting for McCain”
…
I’ve read your posts and I doubt you ever supported Hillary, and I doubt that you were contacted by BOTH Rasmussen and McCain. You are just trying to sway people.

What’s driving the “skepticism” about Obama’s lead in the polls? To put it simply, it’s a question of morale. Privately, McCain campaign workers and party officials admit that the race has already been lost. But to say as much in public would demoralize an already-fragmented base, leading to even more rancor, infighting, and lower voter turnout amongst conservatives.
Thus we have “astroturf” groups loudly attacking the polls, while Republican strategists quietly brush up their resumes.
Not to dispute those who claim that their entire hillbilly clan (Hatfields AND McCoys) or everybody down at the Legion Hall is voting for McCain. I’m sure that’s true. It’s just that “everybody I know” has a significantly lower threshhold of statistical validity than a well-designed poll.

Cardinal – How do you know that you forced your kids to vote for Mccain? Did you follw them into the voting booth? What a shame that you have raised two kids that you have so little respect for that you will not let them have their own opinion and is it differs from yours you cut them off. Here’s hoping that they voted the way the felt they should away from your presence.

E_DAY – 6: ELECTORAL COLLEGE EV POLLS
2008
Obama 364
McCain 157
Tie 17
2004
Bush 281
Kerry 236
Tie 21
State-by-State Polls Are What Matters And Always Predict The Winer.
Source: electoral-vote.com/

Did you see the poll metrics for Arizona? McCain up by 2 points when the margin of error is 3.5?
Hmmm, let me get this straight. Most who are polled are sit at home land line users who have nothing but time on their hands to take a phone poll. I would presume those to be Aunt B and Mr. Frenchy.
Those who aren’t being polled are latinos and college students who are cellular phone only users.
Doesn’t look good, MY FELLOW PRISONERS.
And I’m sure the pollsters in AZ wouldn’t want to upset “The Man”, would they?
POTUS OBAMA – IT’S A LOCK!

Watch the PUMA crowd come out of the wood work — mad as hell that Hillary didn’t make it — and madder even still that Obama didn’t pick her as his running mate — sheesh!

Cardinal – so you filled out your kids abllots for them. Boy that says a lot about your and your parenting abilities. Also says a lot about your kids. That they would take such a sacred thing as the right to vote so lightly that they would allow anyone else to tell them what to do and who to vote for. My dad was a State Representative for many years and remains active in local and often I go to him and asked an opinion on who I should vote for. He has never told me who to vote for. He has always said that I was smart and could make my on decisions. I have often voted as he recommended but at times I have not. That is what a good parent does and is.

Fundamental differences, people. Who believes that the wealthiest nation on the planet shouldn’t provide health care to its citizens? Who believes that paying taxes is a bad thing? Who believes that those who have steered our country 10 out of the last 12 years (and by that, I mean the Republican controlled congress) have done a good job? Who doesn’t seem to understand that a government that helps its people helps itself?
Hint…it’s not the DNC…

Sure the polls could be wrong, but I would still rather be ahead than behind!
More importantly, what difference does it make if the polls are right or not? We all still need to go out and vote, and then we will find out together what happens.

How accurate were the national polls leading up to the elections in ’00 and ’04?
Serious question seeking only serious answer.

Hillary Supporter
Apparently, many millions of Americans disagree with your assessment of Obama. That’s OK. That’s why we have a democracy.

Jenny, that’s the point– my kids ARE smart.After they presented their weak arguement for change, we began to talk dollars and sense. They filled out their own ballots. Of course I had that carrot out there!!

Steave Cuozzo
The right-wing noise machine seems to be backing off that Khalidi story, after they found that John McCain also gave money to Khalidi. LOL

McCain supporters,
Why all the whining about how people vote? This is America, we have a choice and right to support whoever we want. If someone supports Obama, you claim that their “drinking that Kool-Aid”. What kind of nonsense is that? The way your arguments are made, you want everyone who doesn’t agree with you to feel left out of the loop on something, as though you have some special insight others lack.
Now THAT’S elitism!

Lol, Jake. You have a Peter Parker element to you. Props on the thread. Yeah what if came from the far reaches of imagination for hard core comic fans. It was entertaining but traditionalist saw it as a fun fad. I have to believe there are far too professionals with real jobs on the line to have done anything but due diligence when conducting these polls. I think the polls are correct but the question that is unanswered is about those undecideds. If they break for McCain it will be close but let us not forget Bab Barr and Ralph ‘the mouth’ Nader. McCain will lose but in bazzaro world he is clearly going to run away with this thing.

I voted for McCain the first time he ran, aand I am life-long democrat. I was open to him this time – until Palin and the attack ads, Obama’s message told me how he was going to help me with two sons in college and third in soccer. The polls mean nothing to me. I won’t be tricked again. I can’t stomach the possiblity of draft for my sons. Yes I believe in God and Country – but are really any safer?

There is a cussedness to American voters particularly when pushed around. It’s come down to who they believe has pushed them most. Obama’s camp knows this is true and if nervous, they are nervous about the in-the-face thuggery used throughout the campaign by their supporters and surrogates. Obama told them to do it, they did, and now it may be a roosting chicken on a certain Chicago doorstep.
The fact is at this point, no one knows how this election will turn out. What is better understood is that anyone who wins faces a significant backlash from the side that didn’t and how well and fast that side gets reorganized determines the success or failure of the first 100 days of the next administration.
So the dirty tricks are now focused on creating the perception of the permanent disarray of the other camp. The code words such as ‘party implosion’ are to be seen along with the repetition of the names of prominent defectors. Two things are certain there: a losing party always implodes as it reorganizes for the midterms, and defectors are not tolerated well by either side including the one they defect to because no one trusts a traitor to their party.
The meanness of this campaign has at least another two years of life left and then another wave will begin. The thuggery will become more pronounced and up front as the news organizations left gasping for oxygen in the post election cut-off of the funds and ratings go hunting for stories on the new administration with insiders who expected favors begin to find themselves on the outside because they are no longer useful idiots.

The answer is simple:
If all the polls are wrong, we will have 4 more years of bad government.
Any questions?

Gallup poll 49/47. The drive-by media hype is just about to burst. Journalism dies in 2008. Please preserve our freedom and liberty from being destroyed by the radical far left :”FROM EACH ACCORDING TO HIS ABILITY. TO EACH ACCORDING TO HIS NEED”. Socialism is just a step away from communism . Please cast your vote wisely.

Thank you James PArker.. Very well stated post.
Geville – And McCain won’t bring the draft back? How in the world is he going to get all those troops in volunteer for duty for the next 100 years. Humanitarian aid USUALLY does not involve getting blown up. NOT always but usually. Perhaps a few of Obama’s Volunteer could go clean up New Orleans. they still have not recovered fro Bush and FEMA.

Jenny–there is no arguing with you. You seem to make my counter points for me!

If Obama can’t even take care of his own neighborhood, how can he take care of our country?

Obama’s motto is more like “by any means necessary.”
He’s sold his soul to win and he’s going to owe a LOT of people a LOT of favors.

Vanessa: Penn polls also gave it to Obama in primary, Hillary won by huge margin, even after watching 10k people parade for Obama.
Who knows about the polls? Everytime I read the pollsters sites, they too are scratching their heads, they say this election is different due to cell phones, racial questions, undecideds, likely voters vs. possible voters, etc. Some of the data coming out is contradictory ie: One poll got different answers, asking the same people who was best qualified?==more for McCain …Who will you vote for? more for Obama. wierd.

Come on people:
When you take a poll of merely 847 people in a state that has millions, do you really think you are getting a close sample of how the state is going to swing?
Do these polls even tell you how many Democrats/Republicans/Independents they polled?
Area that they polled or age group?
I have never been polled personally and a vast majority of people I know or talk to have not been polled either.
But here is something funny, a friend of mine did tell me that her 14 year-old nephew was polled in PA and he was on the phone with them for 30+ minutes. he told them he was old enough to vote and that is all they needed.
Really???

Penn polls also gave it to Obama in primary, Hillary won by huge margin, even after watching 10k people parade for Obama.
__________________________________________
Not a single poll had Obama ahead in PA.
After a week filled with bad news for the Obama campaign, Hillary
Clinton is out to a 56-30 lead in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary.

Hey, I was flipping around last night and I found out that there is a tape about Obama at a PLO dinner or something. It is in the LA Times?? Why did we not hear about this on ABC?? I keep finding out that ABC is letting me down for breaking news!! What is the story about?? Why is it not on the news?? I might have to change stations!!
Posted by: doingmypart | Oct 29, 2008
———————————–
All stations are for “Ogona take our money”. You should be listening to Fox.

OK – why is it the Gov of Hawaii had to SEAL Obamas Birth Cert?? Why are his School Records sealed? They say because he was born in Kenya not USA -and because he got into the University as a forieng student. WHY ARENT THE AMERICANS Screamming to know the truth – why does Obama get the headlines – I havent seen McCain/Palin in any headlines unless they THINK they found something bad – Why do we care about Sarahs shoes – no one cared about Hillarys shoes – AND why is it Hillary was screaming at the top of her lungs OBAMA IS NOT EXPERIENCED TO LEAD THIS COUNTRY and now suddenly he is? What happened to the Americans that want to know and have the right to know and will fight to know the WHOLE STORY -I’d like to see the media tear Obama apart as they tore into Joe the Plumber – poor guy – asked a damned question – one not in favor of Obama and he got crucified What the hell happened to Americans? Ilove my country – COUNTRY FIRST but the people in it – you all scare me – dont like McCain – vote for who runs against him in four years – at least allow him to go in and Get OSAMA and straighten out the war in Iraq/Afganastan – WOULDNT IT BE NICE FOR A CHANGE TO HAVE OUR TOP TWO LEADERS IN THIS COUNTRY WITH THEIR OWN KIDS FIGHTING THE WAR?????????? HAS EVERYONE FORGOTTEN THERE IS MORE TO THIS THAN ECONOMICS? You all scare the hell out of me – inviting the terrorists to test us!! NICE job Biden – and again wheres that Birth certificate -cause if you have nothing to hide – then why seal it? OH and his poor grammy Toot – she broke her hip ( and I sincerely feel for her as my Mom went thru it last year) NEWS SAYS – “Gravely Ill” come on!!!! Give me a break – you need the sympathy vote too now? She is not gravely ill – I am sure she is in pain and I am also sure she is being very well taken care of – Gravely Ill – all media shall rot in hell for what they are trying to portray and all of you that are laughing at me and my thoughts – tell ya what, if Obama wins – e-mailme in a year -cause instead of us saying God Bless America – We’ll be crying God HELP AMERICA – we are in deep well water if he wins – I love Sarah – she is bright intelligent good speaker and her 19yr old son just went to Iraq in the Infantry!! Front lines!! What does Obama know about fighting a war and keeping or kids safe? Both McCain & Palin have their kids fighting over there – why doesnt that seem important to the rest of this country. I would be proud to have her represent the USA – not enough experience well, McCain aint dead yet guys! AND Obama doesnt have the experience either – OH BUT THATS OK ITS OBAMA – I have heard and have said myself I’d like someone who wasnt a politian to run – well, Sarah is as close to a real person as we have ever seen – she has family and a baby with special needs – our kids fighting over there will get better care and better everything if our Commander and Chief and VP have their own kids fighting for this country – Obama oshama – what a sad joke -no will menetion that he’s shhhhh (black) yep I said it – so WHAT – who cares paint him white and he’d never get this far NEVER – lets be honest no way he’d be this far if he wasnt – and the media can all go to hell they are suppose to be neutral YEAH RIGHT I SEE IT – DONT YOU NO? ME EITHER You Obama followers are being blinded and stupid and just voting cause why? you didnt like Bush – BUSH ISNT RUNNING Cause McCain is a republican? This country notoriously votes in one party they suck – so they vote in the other party – they suck back and forth we go – McCain can fix this Country Obama will kill it Mark my words while you laugh -cause we will all see soon enough. One last note: the fact that we americans voted for Bush not once but TWICE and then did nothing but badmouth him – I find it disgusting that we speak of our President with such disrespect – crap he wouldnt be there if we didnt put him there – and dont blame it all on the republicans cause there were enough Democrats in there to stop Bush from doing anything worthwhile ! I’m done – no one listens anyway!

A McCain win means that every flaming hate-filled anit-American liberal must now do what they promised to do…..LEAVE!
Oh wait, they already said they would leave and they lied. Typical liberal hate-filled anit-American liars.

Republicans find amazing new info on Obama:
- he sank the Titanic
- he caused global warming
- responsible for dinosaurs dying
- he initiated ‘no turn on red’ in many states
- responsible for the original Star Trek being canceled
- his birth certificate was signed by an American
stay tuned….. more to come

To Brooklyn Democrat:
Learn your history and you would know 2 things.
1. Obama is a Marxist in the vien of Stalin himself
2. Texas is the only state that can legally seceed from the US.
So don’t get cold if Obama wins come to the Independent Republic of Texas the source of the most expensive oil to the United Socialist States of America.

re: ‘You neglected the part where he broke up the Beatles and shot John Lennon. ‘
not really, that part comes right after McCain & Gov. Winky Caribou’s rant of Marxist Communist,
or was it fascist nazi, or was it muslim manchurian candidate…..
I get so confused with Republican conspiracy theories, there are so many to try to keep track of..

“I get so confused with Republican conspiracy theories, there are so many to try to keep track of”
So track the truth: Obama is a liar and a cheat without experience and no plan worth following beyond taking from the haves and giving to the have nots aided by the most thuggish campaign since Videla’s , Proceso de Reorganización Nacional.
This election is the Great Get Even. The celebration hangover will be long, nasty and followed by economic pneumonia.

Polling is what polling is – random people, random questions, random answers.
I do find it interesting that when Hussein Obama is leading, there is no mention of the margin of error; When McCain is leading or tied, there is significant emphasis on explaining the margin of error.
As for the comment in the thread about how we as the US don’t provide health care to everyone – well – that is not America. We are individualists – pioneers – free-thinkers (hopefully still I pray) – this is what made America great. It is what has allowed the socialist experiments in Europe to continue – we protect and defend them with our know-how and our men and women in uniform.
Centralization sounds like a good idea – except when you factor in the element of human greed and special interests. Look at Fannie Mae – a Government Sponsored Enterprise. They stamped ‘Approved’ and ‘AAA’ on bad loans, loans to illegals, loans to people without credit history. Raines, an ‘unofficial Hussein Obama advisor got $90M from Fannie to thank him for corruption and when forced to resign because of gross accounting irregularities, got a $240M bonus. He also made sure the Hussein Obama campaign got $100,000 from Fannie Mae.
I don’t hear Flim-Flam Obam demanding recovery of that $90M. Or even the $240M. Nor do we even hear the real story about it in the media. After all, it might affect the poll numbers.