Final Tracking
With our last night of interviewing complete we’re ending our ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll with our final horse race estimate unchanged at 53-44 percent, Obama-McCain. That’s among 2,304 likely voters interviewed Friday through Monday.
We’ve interviewed a total of 10,213 randomly selected adults in the last 19 days; on the odd chance you were among them, thank you. Our purpose hasn’t been to dwell on the horse race, but rather to further our understanding of how the public has come to its choices in the 2008 election – to identify the issues and candidate attributes that mattered, to measure voters’ responses to the thrust and parry of the race, to get a look inside the campaigns’ own playbooks as they’ve formed and made their appeals and to have an alternative to the spin and speculation that rush in when empirical data are absent.
Public attitudes never are more important than in national elections. Our aim at the ABC News Polling Unit this year, as in presidential elections since 1984, has been simple: Trying our best to understand them.
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PRESIDENT BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA!
Capt McCain and his talking parrot are finished. They ran the ship into the iceberg and even the prominent Pubs are jumping ship.
Only one REAL leader in this election.
And that’s:
PRESIDENT BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA!
Posted by: Taking Our Country Back! | November 4, 2008, 1:56 am 1:56 am
Taking Our Country Back!
You Got That Right …
Get Out The Vote ! …
Let’s REALLY WIN this Thing …
Posted by: Blogger | November 4, 2008, 4:19 am 4:19 am
one word …DIEBOLD
Posted by: bah | November 4, 2008, 4:24 am 4:24 am
Some polls will be wrong on election day.
The latest polls in OHIO are predicting that Obama will win in OHIO no matter if he is leading, trailing or tied among INDEPENDENT VOTERS accounting for almost 30% of all voters in OHIO.
Barack Obama is underperforming John Kerry by double digits among independents in some OHIO polls considering John Kerry won by 19 points among independents while losing the election by 3 points.
Quinnipiac poll shows only 77% of Clinton supporters in OHIO (80% in PA and 75% in FL) are backing Obama which is 14% below the 91% of Democrats who are backing Obama.
No surprise considering 18% of Bill Clinton voters in 1996 did not vote for Al Gore in 2000. Also, Some of the pollsters like Zogby indicated Obama/Clinton as tie during the OHIO Primary and Obama lost by 10 points
My pick as an “Election Day Surprise” on the GOP side is McCain winning PENNSYLVANIA where the RCP poll of polls has Obama +7 down from +14 points two weeks ago and at least one poll NBC/Mason-Dixon is showing McCain is trailing by only 4 point. Some polls in PA are showing Obama support among Democrats below the national average including only 75% of Democrats in PA as per a Rasmussen poll.
In 2004 the opinion polls in PA had John Kerry winning by up to 8% in October with Bush closing the gap the last week of the election losing by only 2.2%. The exit polls also predicted John Kerry winning PA by 8.7 points which was 6.5 points above the election result.
My pick as an “Election Day Surprise” on the Dems side is Obama winning Virginia because of how he won the VA primary by an impressive margin. However, the RCP poll has Obama +3.6 down from +8.6 points two weeks ago.
Posted by: Angel | November 4, 2008, 5:18 am 5:18 am
Angel,
Yes, I think Ohio could be a problem for Obama.
Pennsylvania is the key. I don’t see how McCain could win without it but if he won, it would certainly put pressure on Obama.
If McCain wins Ohio and Pennsylvania, Obama would have to win Florida or, North Carolina, or two states from Virginia, Indiana and Missouri.
So if McCain pulls out Ohio and Pennsylvania, this will be a cliff hanger. Otherwise, we can all go to be early.
Posted by: Paul New man | November 4, 2008, 5:52 am 5:52 am
It is an Obama win!
McCain will not pull off PA, there is no way for him to win, unless the voters do not show up.
Posted by: Thinking | November 4, 2008, 6:13 am 6:13 am
God Bless Barack Obama!
Posted by: sarah | November 4, 2008, 6:41 am 6:41 am
Florida, ohio, and north carolina will come throuh for obama. It is great for this country and they should be very proud!!!
Posted by: DAVID | November 4, 2008, 6:49 am 6:49 am
Thinking,
I just saw the latest polls for PA:
SurveyUSA + 9% for Obama
Reuters/Zogby + 10% for Obama
Looks bad for McCain. Without PA, he has no hope.
Posted by: Paul New man | November 4, 2008, 6:50 am 6:50 am
DAVID,
He doesn’t even need them. If he holds PA, CO, NM, MN and NV (the only states that are “close”), he will win without FL, VA, NC, OH, IN or MO.
Posted by: Paul New man | November 4, 2008, 6:52 am 6:52 am
Obama will win by a landslide and I helped! Boy did that feel good.
Obama/Biden 08!
Posted by: Common Sense | November 4, 2008, 7:32 am 7:32 am
01-20-2009 The END of an ERROR…
Posted by: pt | November 4, 2008, 7:37 am 7:37 am
I will be glad to have the election over, I don’t care who wins because the economy can’t be fixed in one year or two years and it’ll probably take until the next election for this country to prosper anyway.
We need better Congressmen —it was Congress who screwed up and didn’t see the financial crisis coming — particulary Democrat Chris Dodd, Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee.
Vote for Congress carefully – screw the President.
Posted by: SheridanColts | November 4, 2008, 7:37 am 7:37 am
Wait, somebody named Planet Earth wants to say:
“Please America, vote for Barack Obama”.
Posted by: Carlos | November 4, 2008, 7:39 am 7:39 am
Thank you to those who have responded to my original post and have offered your prayers! We appreciate them and pray that all is well in each of your lives – we give thanks to the blessings we do have and we remember that :
EVERY VOTE matters! When I say Vote by Your Faith – the reason is – believe it or not – it was my 12 year old daughter who got me looking into the issues – she asked “why” I was a democrat, – I HAD NO ANSWER – (since I didn’t even pay attention to what was going on – I didn’t know! I was a demo -so at that time, I was “JUST” going to vote for Hillary )
My daughter said – HOW CAN YOU VOTE IF YOU DONT KNOW WHAT YOU ARE VOTING FOR??? She was following everything for 7th grade school project – so she showed me a test her school gave her and told me to take it -I voted by what I believed in and had taught her…
GUESS WHAT -the test showed NONE of my beliefs/votes were democratic at all – they were MCCAIN all the way!
Out of the mouth of babes – comes the truth – Mom, How can you Vote if You DONT KNOW WHAT YOU ARE VOTING FOR??? – In her 12 year old opinion, everything we had taught her as parents factored into her voting – she said, “SEE MOM, YOU AND DAD ARE NOT Democrats! You are for McCain – ” “Just like me” – “I taught you something?” She was so proud – THIS IS OUR FUTURE -
My daughter taught us a valuable lesson … Truth and Faith is everywhere IF YOU LISTEN – (Not to the Media – but to your heart – everything that makes each of us a True Patriot OF THE UNITED STATES, our HOME, our FREEDOM, our VALUES, OUR Children’s FUTURE!!!!!!!!
I HOPE THERE is someone undecided on this board for some reason that this message touches – I was a lifetime democrat – but now I have seen with the state of this Country that whatever party McCain & Palin represent – their LEADERSHIP and PROVEN RECORD are what this Country Needs! I believe and have taught my daughter, all these years, with what I “Thought” was democratic belief system – and it wasn’t! I believe with all my heart and soul that the United States and everything it stands for is 100% represented by McCain’s military and senate EXPERIENCE! His ideas for change are a politician “words” that actually make sense and do represent a POSITIVE change for this Country!!!
YES, personally, my husband and I could use the money that O “promises”, as you know my Husband & I are Unemployed for the 1st time in our lives – But I will not let that short term thinking but this country at risk with my vote! The economic FALLOUT of Obama’s plans would bring are not worth this TEMPORARY financial challenge we are facing!!!
There is HOPE and it comes with a STRONG LEADER – MCCAIN / Palin! ALL WE have to do tomorrow is to STAND UP FOR OUR COUNTRY AND WHAT WE ALL HOLD DEAR – whether you call it faith or patriotism, or hope – use it to vote this year!
I Am Telling Everyone I know and don’t know – this year every vote counts and VOTE YOUR FAITH!
PLEASE – I don’t want to offend anyone – even if you are not a person of faith (whatever faith it is) – I know that all of us are a true patriots of this beautiful country – I URGE you to look past the “empty words” – and see the true core values that each of you have and vote for what you believe in!!!
I believe if each of us really researched and KNOW WHAT we are voting for – it would be a clean sweep for McCain!!
Words are EMPTY – McCain & Palin are PROVEN ! Straight talk and new ideas that make sense!
I HOPE THIS MESSAGE TOUCHES ALL OF YOU – VOTE YOUR FAITH – Whatever religion it may be – Vote for what you believe in – I think you will see – this COUNTRY NEEDS A STRONG & PROVEN LEADERS for yourself – CHANGE IS POSSIBLE – VOTE FOR McCain & Palin 2008 !!!!!
God Bless My Right To Share My Voice!
Michelle!
Posted by: VoteYourFaith | November 4, 2008, 7:39 am 7:39 am
I will vote MCCAIN and if he wins it’s great, if he loses, then I will know exactly how many sheep there are in America.
NO RESPECT FOR LIARS NOW OR EVER.
Posted by: norespectforliars | November 4, 2008, 7:43 am 7:43 am
If a 12 year old convinced you to vote for McCain, then how come Sarah Palin didn’t?
Posted by: Carlos | November 4, 2008, 7:44 am 7:44 am
Im just thinking how Palin will react when Obama wins. After all she said “God will do the right thing on nov 4″.
What is she going to do when she finds out that God has rejected her and the republican party? Maybe she has to call that witch hunter minister and get another exorcism, clearly the first one didnt work! LOL
Posted by: JoeShmoe | November 4, 2008, 7:45 am 7:45 am
good riddance GW BUSH!!
Posted by: Gus | November 4, 2008, 7:47 am 7:47 am
To VoteYourFaith,
You are totally misinformed. Barack Obama is a Christian and not only talks the talk but walks the walk. He stayed true to Christian principles and did not resort to lying, and hate mongering during this election season. He maintained his dignity and always respected the other candidate. So what are you talking about when you say vote your faith? You must mean Barack Obama. Take the blinders off before you find yourself in the dark, again.
Posted by: J | November 4, 2008, 7:48 am 7:48 am
VoteYourFaith,
I’m happy that you have opened your eyes and are not voting like a zombie, just to respect the party line.
I disagree with your choice but I respect your right to make it.
If it’s right for you, go with it.
Posted by: Paul New man | November 4, 2008, 8:02 am 8:02 am
Gus,
“good riddance GW BUSH!!”
Yes, this is the golden lining in this election.
In reality, I win even if Obama loses.
It’s a win-win.
Posted by: Paul New man | November 4, 2008, 8:04 am 8:04 am
OBAMA IS THE ONE – McCain/Palin one is relying on his war record and Palin does what she wants. Really what a pair????? Is this what you want??
We need a younger person, and we need the change from the usual Republican stories (yes stories).
Everyone’s talking about Obama raising taxes and just what do you think McCain is going to do – raise taxes. We’ve had this before with George Sr. – NO
NEW TAXES and went on and taxes were raised.
Then we get JR Bush and he gives us a tax cut. But it doesn’t help the ones who need the help. Does 2 cents a month sound like it helps???????
We need the change and I don’t think McCain can do it, and we know Palin can’t.
s
Posted by: smt | November 4, 2008, 9:48 am 9:48 am
VOTE YOUR MIND – who is the better person. THINK ABOUT IT. Do we want to have more years like the past????
Faith is fine, but it is your mind who should be telling you who to vote for.
Posted by: smt | November 4, 2008, 9:57 am 9:57 am
What an amazing country we live in! I am a white man who voted for Obama and am proud of it! When they say anyone’s child can grow up to be president in the U.S., God smiled. During the past 8 years our so-called leaders made some huge errors but with a true leader in the W.H., namely Obama, the past 8 years will dissapear like they never happened, although we wil always remember and not make that mistake again. God bless President Obama and God Bless America!
Posted by: Ron | November 4, 2008, 10:10 am 10:10 am
I CAN UNDERSTAND PEOPLE SAYING THAT THEY ARE PATRIOTIC AND THINGS BUT WHEN U SAY U ARE UNEMPLOYED FOR THE FIRST TIME IN YOUR LIVES AND THE ECONOMY IS SHOT AND PEOPLE, 1 IN 5 ARE UPSIDE DOWN ON THEIR MORTGAGES WHILE THE OTHERS ARE BEING FORECLOSED IT SHOWS THAT WE NEED TO CHANGE OUR WAY OF THINKING. WE LET THIS ADMINISTRATION DESTROY THE FABRIC OF AMERICA IN THE LAST 8, COUNT THEM 8 YEARS. WE CANNOT AFFORD TO KEEP GOING IN THE SAME DIRECTION, WE NEED CHANGE AND WE NEED IT NOW. OBAMA IS A BREATH OF FRESH AIR AND MCCAIN IS A BUSH BUNNY. YOU WANT TO TALK ABOUT MCCAIN AND VALUES, WHAT KIND OF VALUES DOES A MAN HAVE WHOSE WIFE WAITS FOR HIM AS A POW AND HE COMES HOME AND LEAVES HER FOR ANOTHER WOMAN. I’M TIRED OF THIS MORAL VALUE, AMERICAN PATRIOT THING. PEOPLE ARE PEOPLE, THEY MAKE THEIR OWN CHOICES, WHAT MAY BE RIGHT FOR SOME IS WRONG FOR OTHERS BUT LETS GET ONE THING STRAIGHT, NO ONE IS PERFECT, WE ALL HAVE FRAILTIES BUT WE ARE ONLY AS STRONG AS OUR WEAKEST LINK. THAT IS WHY THE BIBLE SAYS THAT THE MEEK SHALL INHERIT THE EARTH AND THE THE FIRST WILL BE LAST AND THE LAST SHALL BE FIRST. IT IS TIME WE SET AN EXAMPLE TO THE WORLD AND START HEALING WITHIN THAT WE MAY START HEALING OUTSIDE OF OURSELVES. PEOPLE ARE HURTING EVERYDAY, THEY, WE NEED HELP AND NOT OPPRESSION. GET THOSE OIL MAGNETS OUT OF OFFICE AND TURN TO A NEW DIRECTION. VOTE OBAMA, VOTE CHANGE AND VOTE RESPONSIBLY FOR THE GREATER GOOD OF YOUR FELLOW MAN!!!
Posted by: WILLIE | November 4, 2008, 10:50 am 10:50 am
No matter who wins we will be finished with George Bush. And that is a victory for the American people.
Posted by: RRRD73A | November 4, 2008, 10:56 am 10:56 am
Obama has PA in the bag and I helped. YEAHHHHHHHH! That feels good.
Posted by: jfelton05 | November 4, 2008, 11:32 am 11:32 am
Folks
We all know that our political leanings make us like whatever our candidates say to us. Both Dem and Rep….
But America can not prosper and for that matter Rich people can not prosper with a solid middle class. That is why there is a big talk of emerging middle class in Brazil, India, China and Russia.
Republicans have been anything but fiscally responsible in the last 8 years and middle class of today are hurting.
For the prosperity of our nation, we need a president who will focus on middle class. That is why I voted for Obama/Biden.
McCain is a war hero and our beloved. But that does not mean he is qualified for the job at this juncture of our economy. Look at the way he has run his campaign, made his VP selection et al. and we will always love him but….
This country needs a new direction, one that works for the middle class.
Vote OBAMA/BIDEN and help transform this nation to its glorious days.
Posted by: GodBlessUSA | November 4, 2008, 12:29 pm 12:29 pm
The only way Mc Cain gets in is by fraud. You can’t wipe a nine point lead away in a couple of days.
President Obama!
Posted by: Jim Rousch | November 4, 2008, 1:43 pm 1:43 pm
To poster who said “Obama stays true to Christian beliefs,”
Why then, does he support abortion and didn’t oppose partial birth abortion? The right to life is a fundamental, non-negotiable issue in the Christian faith. Supporting abortion rights is not a Christian value. You don’t kill babies. Period.
Posted by: Anony | November 4, 2008, 2:14 pm 2:14 pm
“Property is the fruit of labor… property is desirable… is a positive good in the world. That some should be rich shows that others may become rich, and hence is just encouragement to industry and enterprise. Let not him who is houseless pull down the house of another; but let him labor diligently and build one for himself, thus by example assuring that his own shall be safe from violence when built.” Abraham Lincoln
Hopefully Senator Obama will learn this one day. Senator McCain understands this. Go Senator McCain!
Posted by: Walt Bates | November 4, 2008, 2:25 pm 2:25 pm
I too received one of those school questionaires, just like ‘Vote Your Faith’ Michelle received. When my children asked me why I am a Democrat, I responded that I am not. I explained that I had simply marked the ‘Democrat’ party-affiliation box when I registered to vote. I explained that I am not a Republican nor an Independent. I am an American. That’s what I told them. I explained to my children that I always vote for whomever I believe can do the job as a REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PEOPLE. I explained to my children that the most dangerous politicians are those whom, in their official capacity as a representative of the people, vote the ‘party line’ in legislative issues. Those politicians are not representing their constituants– instead they are representing a small group of greedy power mongers (the party bosses). I described how, as a Democrat, I had voted for Jimmy Carter(D), then Ronald Reagan(R), then Ronald Reagan(D) again, then George Bush Sr.(R), then Bill Clinton(D), then Bill Clinton(D) again, then George Bush Jr.(W), then Al Gore(D), and now Barack Obama(D). I explained to my children that the most dangerous voters are those who vote a straight-party ticket. There has NEVER been a major election – Federal or State – where ALL of the Democrats were the ‘right’ people, nor where ALL the Republicans were the ‘right’ people for each job. My children nodded in understanding. I felt I had done a good job, teaching and instructing my children, rather than being in some mental fog where my children were put in a position of having to teach me. I knew I had followed the wise words of Solomon, who said, “Train up a child in the way he should go, and when he is old he will not depart from it” (Proverbs 22:6). As for the questions on the questionaire, I failed all of them and was deemed a ‘Democrat’ simply because I answered ‘NO’ to each question (a ‘YES’ would make you a ‘Republican’). The questions were: (1) Do you like war? (2) Is it okay for the US start an illegal war of agression? (3) If the terrorists are in country ‘A’, is it okay to later invade country ‘B’ under false pretenses just because we don’t like the leader of country ‘B’? (4) Is it okay to say we are fighting for ‘Freedom’, when that is not the real reason? (5) Is torture of prisoners okay as long as it is US doing it? (6) Do less rights and less privacy equal More Freedom? (7) If you can’t fool the people into handing over their Social Security payroll deductions to Wall Street every paycheck, is it okay to let Wall Street feign Bankruptcy and then hand more than $700 Billion in citizens’ hard-earned money directly to the rich Bankers instead? (8) Turning over a foreign conquered country’s oil production to your rich US & UK oil buddies is okay because the conquered deserve nothing. (9) The North Vietnamese torturers of John McCain were very honorable and deserved the war-medals they won because it is okay to torture prisoners if it ‘might’ save your countrymen’s lives. (10) The Nazi torturers of captured WWII French Underground Freedom-Fighters were very honorable and deserved the war-medals they won because it is okay to torture prisoners if it ‘might’ save your countrymen’s lives.
Posted by: Joe Hepperle | November 4, 2008, 3:46 pm 3:46 pm
I voted with my intelligence! While I consider myself, wordly, bright, and articulate, I REALLY WANT THOSE WHO WILL REPRESENT ME, TO BE EVEN BETTER!
That would only be Obama/ Biden!
I don’t want a hockey mom, joe six-pack, FIRST DUDE, representing me here or in the world court!
McCain ran a filthy, unintelligent, didn’t know what he was for, campaign. Palin, is not quite sure what the role of a VP is!
I CERTAINLY HOPE THAT BRAINS WIN OVER STUPIDITY!!!
Posted by: LYNDA in CT | November 4, 2008, 6:13 pm 6:13 pm
I heard something unusual today.
This evening we are expecting high winds across the nation.
Any Idea?
I do, it is the “Winds of Change” coming to blow all the filth away that these damned Republicans have bestowed up us!!
Posted by: MSR | November 4, 2008, 6:22 pm 6:22 pm
MSR: you said it all… the winds of change are going to correct the stolen election of 2000. Oh How I wonder how much better off we would be, without the federalists dismantling the constitution.
Posted by: MCsame | November 4, 2008, 7:35 pm 7:35 pm
How can you predict a state when you only he 3% or 15% of the districts reporting???
Posted by: Brent | November 4, 2008, 9:44 pm 9:44 pm
Well when you can already see what the democrats have done for this country, you will only see a further downfall of our country.
When we the media get it right that an African-American is someone who is born in Africa and moves to America and gains citizenship. An African-American is not someone who was born in an American hospital and has only lived here in American. I do not go around calling myself an Irish-English-Polish-American. I call myself an American.
Posted by: Me | November 4, 2008, 9:53 pm 9:53 pm
ABC stated that race was much less a factor than age (according to what polls are saying). That is ridiculous! No white person is going to admit that race did or did not have a role in his/her vote. People will talk about age but no one wants to take the chance of looking racist- so no one is admitting the truth.
Posted by: Jay | November 4, 2008, 10:01 pm 10:01 pm
I’m happy to see that Obama is the projected winner in NM…but it looks like McCain has 60% of that vote, no?
Posted by: Laurie | November 4, 2008, 10:06 pm 10:06 pm
Obvious that the media gave Obama a heads up a long time ago. This counrty is so divided, I think I move to another counrty now if this does not get better here in our own country it’s very sad htings have never really changed, I see if this changes anything who ever wins.
Posted by: Gloria | November 4, 2008, 10:08 pm 10:08 pm
A country I use to hold so dear to me. Yes Obama has won the election. this does not restore my faith in this country. No not when babies whom is still in the woumb has no voice. I have lost my faith in our goverment. What happened to a mans word ,a promise or a hand shake, what happen when people think they can register to vote 10, 20, 30 times. to lie and be decietful. No America is no longer a moral country, a country that we sung god shed his grace on thee. No president Obama is not my president, nor doese congress represent me. not when they line their own pockets, and their own agenda. Promises made they know they cannot keep. When a dollor is more important than you or me. Yes a country who many died for and a country who has forgot what they died for. Yes our country was founded on christian values. Many who came from around the world,so they would not be killed for the belief in christ. yes christ died for you and me, and now a country who no longer belives. god says in the last days, what is right is wrong, and what is wrong is right. yes when our own president and congress can lie and not so much as blink an eye, yes we should all fear. Gods wrath is upon us. Weather democrate or republican we should get this country back to christian values, to honesty respect, what we once held so dear, we should do more when we see our leaders who are not being honest, and demand they step down and should be voted on by the people to step down. Let the young read the history, the history we fought for ,so they do not repeat the mistakes of the past. The misstakes of long ago, where you were killed for what you belived.
Posted by: Darlene | November 5, 2008, 3:44 am 3:44 am
I think people need to reflect on the past hundreds of years and see what a mess has been made and think that maybe there is something that this new president can do to make our country better if he doesn’t then that’s ok to because it has been messed up so much before by others. Please don’t so how much in the past that you really are by being racist.
Posted by: M palmer | November 6, 2008, 12:35 pm 12:35 pm