Show-Me State Still Hasn’t Shown Who It Voted For
EmailMissouri is the one state that has yet to award its electors, but the likelihood is that those 11 electors will be awarded to Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., thus eroding the state’s "bellwether" status.
Since 1904, Missouri has voted with the winner in every presidential election except for one.
On election night, the Missouri Secretary of State’s office recorded a 5,868 vote edge for the Republicans — 1,442,673 votes for the McCain-Palin ticket, 1,436,814 for Obama-Biden.
In other words, McCain 49.4%, Obama 49.2%.
The state was not called, however, because uncounted were 7,085 provisional ballots — cast by folks whose voting status was unclear when they showed up at the polls.
In order for Obama to overtake McCain’s lead, he’d need to win 83% of those ballots, which seems unlikely if not outright impossible.
More importantly, as the St. Louis Post-Dispatch points out, in the past two elections, fewer than half of the provisional ballots cast ended up counting as legitimate.
In 2006, only 3,282 of 7,401 provisional ballots counted.
In 2004, 3,292 out of 8,183 counted.
In other words, McCain almost certainly won Missouri.
- jpt
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This is great news for Missouri.
In fact, I think the “bellwether” state idea can be thrown out the window now.
Posted by: cincyr | November 8, 2008, 10:58 am 10:58 am
I just heard Omaha of Nebraska goes to Obama (1 electoral vote)… so Obama EV is now 365.
Maccain EV is 174 (including MO)
Popular vote Obama 53% Maccain 46%
Posted by: jj | November 8, 2008, 11:17 am 11:17 am
Why do you keep showing Indidana as an Obama win?
McCain is currently over 99,000 votes ahead. How many provisional ballots are waiting to be counted there?
Obviously it doesn’t change the outcome of the election, but is accuracy too much to expect?
Posted by: Keith | November 8, 2008, 11:40 am 11:40 am
Indiana!
Posted by: Keith | November 8, 2008, 11:40 am 11:40 am
This is great news for McCain!!!!! Hopefully he can come back…
Great insight Jake!!!
who cares?
Posted by: Grant | November 8, 2008, 11:53 am 11:53 am
Keith,
Exactly what statistics are you quoting. Politico has the following for Indiana: Obama 1,367,509 and McCain 1,341,667 with 100% of the vote counted. Close, but Obama won Indiana.
Posted by: Richard Strobel | November 8, 2008, 12:01 pm 12:01 pm
Palin spent too much time in the Bible Belt area of Missouri. I think she made the difference for McCain.
I was surprised that Obama did not do better in south MO considering the large crowds when he visited.
The huge billboard of Obama dressed as a Muslim was not helpful.
I have a friend that changed her name when voting in the primary near Kansas City. They dropped her completely. She did a provisional vote and was given a pin number to check in 14 days to see if the vote counted.
Posted by: Jim | November 8, 2008, 12:02 pm 12:02 pm
Posted by: Keith | Nov 8, 2008 11:40:17 AM
Where are you getting that McCain is 99,000 ahead?
1,367,503- Obama
1,341,667-McCain
25,836 difference.
Posted by: Jwench | November 8, 2008, 12:02 pm 12:02 pm
Richard Strobel.
I got my statistics from the web site of the Indiana Secretary of State.
Posted by: Keith | November 8, 2008, 12:23 pm 12:23 pm
If this were between 2 white candidates Missouri’s status as a “bellwether” state might mean something. But we all know their issues with race. It went for McCain by a smidgen and we know why.
BTW Jake, how bout addressing President-Elect Obama by his new title and drop the “Senator”.
Posted by: Rob | November 8, 2008, 1:25 pm 1:25 pm
if it will rally the republican party
let them have mo.
Posted by: one planet, one people, please | November 8, 2008, 1:40 pm 1:40 pm
Don’t forget that Missouri is a central focus of the US Attorney scandal. Bradley Schlozman (US Attorney in Missouri) did everything he could to curtail the rights of people there to vote. His predecessor, Todd Graves, was forced to resign because he refused to bring a baseless lawsuit against the state that could have resulted int voters’ being wrongly removed from the rolls.
Schlozman was one of the political appointees who approved Tom DeLay’s Texas redistricting plan and Georgia’s voter ID law, over the objection of career lawyers on the staff, who insisted that both violated the Voting Rights Act.
Schlozman also hired Justice Department lawyers based on their political party.
The guy most likely purjured himself at least three times in testimony before Congress.
Boy, its going to be nice to get rid of these crooks.
Posted by: Flash Override | November 8, 2008, 1:57 pm 1:57 pm
Mac is back! Mac is back! but to
where?
Not even one inch closer to the White House.
Posted by: FM | November 8, 2008, 1:59 pm 1:59 pm
Keith,
Did you notice that the last update was November 7th, and that there was a disclaimer that some counties had not yet submitted their results?
Posted by: Richard Strobel | November 8, 2008, 2:02 pm 2:02 pm
As a life-long Missouri resident, I’m not a bit surprised that Missouri says they don’t really know the final count.
What a load of crap. Anyone who believes that…hey, I have some great beach property in FL to sell you.
Posted by: Anon | November 8, 2008, 2:38 pm 2:38 pm
Richard Strobel,
Yes I noticed that. November 7th at the end of the business day. That was yesterday. These are the most current available numbers. Rather than ask where I get my statistics, perhaps a more relevant question would be where do ABC and Politico get their numbers.
Posted by: Keith | November 8, 2008, 2:52 pm 2:52 pm
Well, you have to give the Republicans credit for at least trying to steal votes and the election. Too bad for them Missouri did not end up being as important as they expected.
Posted by: Shockolit | November 8, 2008, 2:59 pm 2:59 pm
This doesn’t bode well for any aspirations Claire McCaskill might have had for power in the Obama administration. And I’m sure her teenage daughter is also very disappointed in her for not delivering the state for Obama.
Posted by: cappamore | November 8, 2008, 3:09 pm 3:09 pm
Missouri has not been a bellweather state since 1996. In 2000, it voted for Bush when Gore won the popular vote. In 2004, Missouri voted for Bush at a margin that was at least twice Bush’s national popular vote margin. In this election, Obama won by 7%, and Missouri went in the other direction, voting for McCain by less than 1%. Missouri is a lean-red state. MO’s politics have been changed by the strong evangelical presence and its rural demographics: less well educated whites.
Posted by: khyber Jones | November 8, 2008, 3:47 pm 3:47 pm
Would be too much to ask to change your ‘St. Louise’ to ‘St. Louis’?
Posted by: Tom J | November 8, 2008, 4:21 pm 4:21 pm
It doesn’t matter now,Missouri.You can award your 11 ev to whoever you want.Oh and “show me”you can bow out gracefully
and instead of being a “bellwether” try
following the leader and we all know who that is.
Posted by: incME | November 8, 2008, 4:23 pm 4:23 pm
Little do people know most people in Missouri feel that obama won the state but Missouri throught they were going to be the deciding factor and many folks think they cheated – so the state wouldn’t turn blue… He’s very close to winning this state…..
Posted by: TedFromMO | November 8, 2008, 4:23 pm 4:23 pm
Not to mention the “Poll Workers” where asking for double ID’s even from the folks who had their updated reg. cards. They also was telling folks they had to complete the entire ballot or it will not be counted….
Posted by: TedFromMO | November 8, 2008, 4:26 pm 4:26 pm
I agree! There where a lot of untrained poll workers and they where trying to discourage the youth and the first time voters. I heard the same thing that people had to show double ID’s although their names showed up on the books where they went to vote at during the election. Missouri wasn’t important as they throught. Cheaters get no where!
Posted by: Rob | November 8, 2008, 4:30 pm 4:30 pm
Missouri’s politicians cater too much to the religious extremists. I’m not surprised they would try to pull a Florida or Ohio. It’s too bad you couldn’t vote out the Akins or Hulshofs.
Posted by: DK | November 8, 2008, 5:04 pm 5:04 pm
Sounds suspicious to me. I could have walked over to Missouri by now and handcounted the provisional ballots myself. Every Presidential election has to have a “Florida” I guess.
Posted by: clarity | November 8, 2008, 8:38 pm 8:38 pm
Kansas City, St. Louis, and the county were the University of Missouri is located (Columbia) overwhelming voted for Obama.
Missouri has a crooked Republican governor, Matt Blunt, that is not running for reelection because he would never win. He is still being investigated.
Over a month ago, twisted words in Sen. Claire McCaskill news release about law enforcement officials were going to be working to dispute all the Obama lies. They were calling the group, “The Truth Squad”. The McCaskill release clearly stated that they would be working on their own time.
Blunt put a posting on the state website that Missouri law enforcement people were going to be using their power to intimating voters, including arresting them.
Blunt went on FOX and other new sites to continue spreading the false allegations.
McCain had his own Truth Squads in other states
Posted by: Jim | November 8, 2008, 8:55 pm 8:55 pm
Posted by: Jim | Nov 8, 2008 8:55:34 PM
You nailed it….
Posted by: Mike | November 8, 2008, 9:22 pm 9:22 pm
President Elect Barack Obama: Catch on?
Posted by: Craig | November 8, 2008, 11:10 pm 11:10 pm
Witless from Wasilla just called. She wanted to know how the state of South Missouri voted. Oh by the way, Gov., if
the clothes don’t belong to you, as you saaid yesterday, why did you also admit to taking them home “in the belly of the plane”? Finally, anybody out there interested in a pair of silk boxers, worn only once by Todd Pailin? I did like her NIxonian non-denial denial.
Posted by: B. Bear | November 8, 2008, 11:47 pm 11:47 pm
GO McCAIN! YEAH!
Posted by: JULIE | November 8, 2008, 11:57 pm 11:57 pm
Good then the puppy mill state of Missouri can now be just what it is….another state that votes. It is a Bell Weather no more.
Posted by: Grissom | November 9, 2008, 12:42 am 12:42 am
Democrats can’t complain. I wasn’t really counting FL or OH, and I would have never imagined that NC and IN would ever vote Democrat. We almost got MO,which is amazing. My prediction is that in 2012 we, Democrats, will win in MO, AZ, and MT, and keep the Obama states blue. Without McCain’s indcependent appeal the Republican party only has the deep far-right states like SC, AL, MS, OK, UT, and states like that. Moderate and Progressive states will keep voting Democrat until some new party comes up to replace the Republicans.
Posted by: miguel | November 9, 2008, 1:12 am 1:12 am
Even after confirming voter registration and polling location on the Missouri Secretary of State website, my daughter (a college student in Springfield) was turned away at the polling location because she “wasn’t on the list” and sent to the Court House to “verify” her registration. At the Court House, she was told she WAS on the list and had to return to the polling location to vote. Fortunately, she was determined to vote and upon returning to the polling location discovered she was in fact on the list. Not sure that most college students would have driven all over town trying to vote between classes and work. Her roommate also went three different places trying to vote. In that case, a vote was never cast. I wonder if this is indicative of what went on with the young voters in Missouri! There are a lot of college students in Springfield Missouri who support Obama!
Posted by: Linda | November 9, 2008, 10:06 am 10:06 am
This is excellent news for John McCain
Posted by: Cromagnon | November 9, 2008, 11:06 am 11:06 am
In Kansas City, Nov 4th started without voter data at voting locations to verify voters. The lines were already long. I never heard what time the voter data was corrected.
KC was very strong for Obama.
How many people left because of work or other issues? Missouri does not have early voting.
Legally MO has 14 days to count the provisional votes. The issue is determing whether the people were legally registered.
Other people have described the college student issues. I wonder how many people gave up and did not know about provisional votes.
Posted by: Jim | November 9, 2008, 11:43 am 11:43 am
I guess Missouri is afraid to go to the back of the goody line behind Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and other states that called it right.
Posted by: Dallas | November 9, 2008, 9:23 pm 9:23 pm
Let’s hope that we’ll hear no more about the bellweather-ness of Missouri and the “Bradley Effect.”
Posted by: Emilio | November 9, 2008, 11:20 pm 11:20 pm
Missouri ceased being a bellweather state when one exception had to be added. Now there are two exceptions. Big Deal.
Posted by: John | November 10, 2008, 7:24 pm 7:24 pm
So Missouri is the “show me” state.
And we showed Missouri.
But Missouri backed the unwanted loser anyways.
Now Missouri needs to “Show US” why exactly is Missouri relevant anymore.
Exit Missouri, reenter Peoria.
And Missouri, be equally proud of your Chiefs.
Posted by: George Silva | November 11, 2008, 3:00 am 3:00 am