Show-Me State Still Hasn’t Shown Who It Voted For

By Dotcomabc

Nov 8, 2008 10:45am

Missouri is the one state that has yet to award its electors, but the likelihood is that those 11 electors will be awarded to Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., thus eroding the state’s "bellwether" status.

Since 1904, Missouri has voted with the winner in every presidential election except for one.

On election night, the Missouri Secretary of State’s office recorded a 5,868 vote edge for the Republicans — 1,442,673 votes for the McCain-Palin ticket, 1,436,814 for Obama-Biden.

In other words, McCain 49.4%, Obama 49.2%.

The state was not called, however, because uncounted were 7,085 provisional ballots — cast by folks whose voting status was unclear when they showed up at the polls.

In order for Obama to overtake McCain’s lead, he’d need to win 83% of those ballots, which seems unlikely if not outright impossible.

More importantly, as the St. Louis Post-Dispatch points out, in the past two elections, fewer than half of the provisional ballots cast ended up counting as legitimate.

In 2006, only 3,282 of 7,401 provisional ballots counted.

In 2004, 3,292 out of 8,183 counted.

In other words, McCain almost certainly won Missouri.

- jpt

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