Obama Didn’t Buy the Presidency
Confirmation bias is usually defined as when as humans we seek out information that confirms our held beliefs and ignore facts that run counter to those beliefs. It affects how we make decisions at many levels. As human beings we do this because we are more comfortable with hearing things that agree with what we already think.
This bias also exists in how pundits and the media examine what goes on in political campaigns, and it usually means that many times we learn the wrong lessons in our observations.
As I have read recent press reports and analysis of Obama’s spending advantage over McCain in this year’s presidential race, I have noted a constant repetition of what I believe is a myth in politics, and this has been done even by my former colleague Karl Rove in the Wall Street Journal analyzing Obama’s advantage in ad spending.
The myth: Obama won this year’s presidential race in large part because he outspent McCain on television. By selectively picking facts that confirm a belief, this myth has been told far and wide. And it is a fiction.
Yes, Obama had a major spending advantage on television. But as we examine the facts closer, we learn there is no significant relationship to ad buys and vote counts.
This is something I, along with others, studied after the 2004 race, and in that process learned that in a presidential race, paid media buys have little impact on the outcome.
The only advertising that matters are the spots that get taken up by the media and repeated in a news context over and over again. Think to yourself about which spots you remember in this campaign. They are likely the ones that aired very little (Clinton’s 3 a.m. ad, McCain’s Paris Hilton ad, etc), and these ads had as much recall in places they were never bought as in places they were.
Here are some interesting facts that I hope counter the myth of ad buys in presidential races:
In 2004, John Kerry lost nationally a margin of almost 3 percent. In 2008, Obama won nationally by a margin of nearly 7 percent. So the overall national marginal movement was roughly ten points to Obama’s advantage. Thus, one would conclude that Obama’s movement in states where he overwhelmed McCain with ad spending would be much higher than this 10-point movement, and in states where Obama put little to no ad resources this movement would be less.
Surprise! That didn’t happen.
Take the major ten battleground states where Obama put the vast part of his spot advertising buy (such as Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, etc). In examining Obama’s movement in those states as a whole versus the other 41 jurisdictions you find that there is no difference in movement between those two places. Obama’s margin rose on average ten points in these ten battleground states, and rose on average ten points in the other 41 states (with DC).
Hmmmm. So Obama outspends McCain in those 10 states in total by about a 2 to 1 margin, but has as much movement in places he had no spending advantage.
In fact, some of the biggest movements to Obama were in places no ads were bought locally like Utah and Vermont and California. And one of the bottom moving states to Obama was Ohio where he had a significant spending advantage over McCain.
So that is the broad examination of ad buys, lets take a look at some more interesting specific examples to see if the same pattern is revealed.
Two non-target states provide us with some rather interesting information and those are Delaware and Maryland. Neither state was on anyone list of targets in this years presidential race and resource allocation to those states was very limited. However, counties in those states are effected by ad buys in target states (some Delaware counties are in the Philadelphia media market and some Maryland counties are in the Washington Dc market).
If one only relied on bias, we would conclude that movement in the counties within the target media markets in those two states would be dramatically higher than counties that were outside those buys. Lets take a look at what the facts show.
Obama and his allies outspent McCain by nearly 2 to 1 in the Philadelphia market, but there was no difference in vote movement between non Philly Delaware counties and Philly Delaware counties. Obama got almost the exact same margin jump in both places!
And Maryland provides even a more stark example of this explosion of the ad myth. Obama had a 9 to 1 spending advantage in the Washington DC market! And there was no significant difference in movement for Obama between Maryland counties in the DC media market and Maryland counties in the Baltimore media market where Obama had no local media buys. Let me repeat – Obama received no extra jump in these DC Maryland counties even though he had a 9 to 1 ad spending advantage over McCain.
So what’s our takeaway? Pundits and press and consultants constantly repeat the refrain that spending largely determines Presidential race results and that ad buys have a significant impact on results. This is simply not born out by the facts.
As I learned, having been involved directly in 2004 and looking closely at this year, the major impact on vote movement in Presidential races have to do most with the political environment, big events and moments in the campaign, and message discipline primarily as it is revealed in news reporting on television, radio, print and the internet. While ads and spending can more affect down ballot races or less high profile campaigns, in presidential races their impact is minimal.
I hope this adds to the discussion and maybe help future conduct in and reporting on presidential races. Beware confirmation bias. Just because a belief has been repeated over and over again doesn’t make it true. A good life lesson, too.
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Yeah sure Matthew – yeah right, uh huh, Just like he quit smoking too..uh huh..sure…stop being Obamas lap dog and take a serious look at his foreign campaign contributions. Talk to the staff members who quit because they became disgusted watching foreign money pour in and then be readdressed in new envelopes with US postage showing on them. He didnt raise almost 700 million legally and if you beleive that then you shouldnt be employed as a journalist.
Posted by: jimbo | December 8, 2008, 6:25 am 6:25 am
“Jimbo” lol – Hey Parker James Shannon, aka Beckwith, is that you?
I know you’re awake, busy putting out junk at FR and other places.
Throwing out more made-up dirt. Get. a. life.
Poor “Jimbo” can’t provide a link to a reputable source that “staff members…quit because they they became disgusted watching…” but heck, truth never stopped “Jimbo” before, so why should it now?
Posted by: John Dean | December 8, 2008, 6:40 am 6:40 am
thanks john..go back to the kool aid fountain and keep drinking..
Posted by: jimbo | December 8, 2008, 6:44 am 6:44 am
Obama won the election because Independents and true Conservatives voted for him. I left the GOP because of the ignorant NeoCons that took over the Rep. party. They still show up on these boards shaking their limp pom-poms in anger and frustration.
Posted by: Clint | December 8, 2008, 7:13 am 7:13 am
From my studies, name recogniton is the primary factor in voter decision. Advertising certainly helps with that factor, because many people rely on locally respected leaders to supply political advice. Another major factor is the political affiliation of one’s parents. In the hostoric election of a black man, this could have happened long ago if more qualified voters had trounled thenselves to vote. Voter turn-out has been dismal because nothing was in danger of being taken away from the controled, uninformed, and lazy.
Posted by: olin tucker | December 8, 2008, 7:27 am 7:27 am
Dowdy!
Come on! We ALL know better! No need to
try to sway us now!
Posted by: jeep395 | December 8, 2008, 7:40 am 7:40 am
Obama didn’t do anything that all other presidents haven’t done. Whoever spends most, wins. That formula has a 100% success rate. Guys like Dowd labor under some delusion of awe-inspiring hope and brotherly love. We’ll all sit around camp fires holding hands singing Cumbaya. Ain’t gonna happen. Whoever spends most wins. Every time.
Posted by: Nobody's Fool | December 8, 2008, 7:40 am 7:40 am
It will be years before we find out the truth. Until then, it will be hard to believe anything the press says about Obama given their uncritical support for Obama throughout the campaign. We are now going through a period where the press is trying to justify its behavior, like Mathew Dowd does here.
Posted by: tina | December 8, 2008, 7:44 am 7:44 am
“Just because a belief has been repeated over and over again doesn’t make it true.”
True enough.
“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.” – Joseph Goebbels
http://michaelfury.wordpress.com/2008/08/16/black-box/
Posted by: visor | December 8, 2008, 7:48 am 7:48 am
Whining losers,
In the 2000 election, Bush raised record amounts of money and I heard no Conservative complaining about it. What I see is a bunch of sore losers who think that the only person qualified to be president is a old white male who drinks the neo-con kool-aid and is willing to start wars over anything to prove how tough they are. I like millions of other Americans (DEMs, Reps and Inds) donated money monthly to Obama ($50) and I am a retired veteran who works hard every day for what I earn. You will not accepted the fact that you had no message and that your normal attacks or hatred and intolerance didn’t work because the American people saw through your lies.
Posted by: Mike | December 8, 2008, 8:06 am 8:06 am
I can’t see the argument is here.
Ad spend didn’t have as nearly as smuch sway as Obama haters claim it did. That’s a plain and simple fact through evaluation in hindsight and can’t be undone.
However, it did help Obama –maintain–(the key issue) his polls (and votes) where there was no previous clear advantage and he could not afford to lose ground.
Having saud that, I don’t think you can rule out or (let’s face it) ignore the fact that both John McCain and Hillary Clinton ran – in the main – very negative campaigns in contrast to Obamas key messages.
Sure, there was negativity on all sides but they really outdid Obama in the hating stakes – and seeing as they )JMc & HC) spent so little, those sentiments really did play a part in underpinning key messages in both of their campaigns. Hence why they rightfully lost.
I don’t remember Obama pandering to racist sentiments with suggestive and surreptitious language and goading (dangerous!) remarks. Ahem, Palin.
Posted by: M. Connaughton | December 8, 2008, 8:14 am 8:14 am
If this is true, than why did both campaigns spend the lion’s share on TV advertising?
Posted by: PJ | December 8, 2008, 8:15 am 8:15 am
yes, he did buy the presidency.
Posted by: Tra la la | December 8, 2008, 8:36 am 8:36 am
yes, he did buy the presidency.
Just like bush did
Posted by: Tra la la | December 8, 2008, 8:37 am 8:37 am
It isinteresting that at a time of dire financial news everywhere you turn, that anyone can defend the concept of a presedential election costing 1 billion dollars.
With this kind of money being tossed out, there is no way that the winner (No Matter Which Party), can avoid having to return some favors!
The real question you need to ponder is …. do you ant the next one to cost 2 billion, 4 billion, or more
?
Posted by: Mike_C | December 8, 2008, 8:50 am 8:50 am
Dowd is ABC’s Obama liason…if you don’t know that by now you lack discernment totally!
Posted by: please! | December 8, 2008, 9:26 am 9:26 am
Whomever has the strongest support amongst voters, is best able to raise money. Duh.
Posted by: Yukon Sam | December 8, 2008, 9:31 am 9:31 am
I am very much impressed the way Matthew Dowd writes this article.
The media are claiming that they do not see the change “when Obama picks familiar faces”.
I also urge the Media to show us the change. Reporting negatives the way they are used to, does not get us anywhere.
I am happy Matthew Dowd has shown the change, and I hope the rest will follow asuit.
Posted by: FM | December 8, 2008, 9:40 am 9:40 am
Yep….please is right ..he is ABCs Obama liason like Maureen Dowd is the NY Time’s liason. Very few news outlets can be unbaised anymore and just report the facts. Most of them have continued their love affair with Bam Bam and he hasnt even done anything yet. Unending devotion and unconditional love for the Chicago politician. At a time wqhen everyone is complaining that they cannot afford gas, food, mortgages,college etc they think we are stupid enough to believe that average families pumped hundreds into the empty suits campaign. What a fairy tale. We cant wait to see what they will be writing 6 months from now when golden boy falls off his pedestal.
Posted by: jimbo | December 8, 2008, 9:45 am 9:45 am
Will true journalism EVER see the light of day again in America? Dowd……get off your messiah worshipping knees and report the facts. Let the public decide. I don’t care how much you have “studied” spending in elections….you are dead wrong. Hussein bought htis election with $750M. What you and other so-called reporters should do is to investigate where that money came from. Odinga (Kenya), Gadaffi (Algeria), Ali -Muhamad (Syria). The list goes on and on. This is what the public needs to know. This election is so fraught with fraud and NONE OF THE NEWS MEDIA IS WILLING TO GO DOWN THAT PATH>>>>>>>WHY????
Posted by: chotolal7 | December 8, 2008, 10:26 am 10:26 am
If you don’t like the campaign finance system, then help us change it. But don’t fault Obama for using it well.
Posted by: jock59801 | December 8, 2008, 11:22 am 11:22 am
Mathew Dowd….
You left out the most important points of an Obama Win…
1. The 1st time Voters
Note: Who were never goinmg to vote for a Republican, moreover Mccain & Palin.
2. The often overlooked [Independent & Moderate Votes]
Note: Moderate Republicans & Democrats voted for Obama, as well as Independent Voters.
3. The Various groups overlooked in past elections.
Note: Latino American, Asian American & Bi-Racial America, Voted for Obama.
4. California, New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey, Illinois, Washington DC, Washington State, Oregon, Maryland, Connecticut, Minnesota, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, Wisconsin, Maine, Deleware & Virginia…
Note: Mccain knew he was not going to WIN…
Yet McCain-Palin continued to Campaign Hard in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, NC and Indiana…to no avail.
5. The Anti-Iraq War Vote
6. The Anti-Bush Vote on both the Republican & Democratic side.
7. The Female Vote with Hillaryt Clinton’s help, was the largest Contributing Group to McCain-Palin’s ticket…
An with Sarah Palin as the Chicken Bone thrown at them, was a Slap in the face of Feminist in this country and all around the Globe.
Kay Hutchison should’ve been chosen, they still would’ve lost, but Hutchison would have some effect on female voters…
McCain went with a Hollow log nad sunk his own Ship…
Simple and Plain.
McCain lost the Popular Vote 67 [Million] and the Electoral Vote [365].
He got his A!! Kicked Royally and the Presidency was Obama’s when PA, Ohio New Mexico & California Votes were concluded.
McCain was too Old and Palin was a Hollow Log
Posted by: O. | December 8, 2008, 12:35 pm 12:35 pm
Matthew, you are so much in the with Obama that is laughable. Obama is perfect for you. Pleasssssse! LOL
Posted by: Mark | December 8, 2008, 12:42 pm 12:42 pm
Sorry about the earlier Typos.
Mathew Dowd….
You left out the most important points of an Obama Win…
1. The Young Vote and 1st time Voters
Note: Who were never goinmg to vote for a Republican, moreover McCain & Palin.
2. The often overlooked [Independent & Moderate Votes]
Note: Moderate Republicans & Democrats voted for Obama, as well as Independent Voters.
3. The Various groups overlooked in past elections.
Note: Latino American [67%], Asian American [65%] & Bi-Racial America [85%]Voted for Obama.
4. Obama States: California, New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey, Illinois, Washington DC, Washington State, Oregon, Maryland, Connecticut, Minnesota, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, Wisconsin, Maine, Deleware & Virginia…
Note: Those states McCin knew he was not going to WIN anyway…
Yet McCain-Palin continued to Campaign Hard in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, NC and Indiana…to no avail.
5. The Anti-Iraq War Vote
6. The Anti-Bush Vote on both the Republican & Democratic side.
7. The Female Vote with Hillaryt Clinton’s help, was the largest Contributing Group in the McCain-Palin ticket LOSS…
An with Sarah Palin as the Chicken Bone thrown at them, it was a Big Slap in the face of Feminist in this country and all around the Globe.
Kay Hutchison should’ve been chosen, they still would’ve lost, but Hutchison would have some effect on female voters…
McCain went with a Hollow log and sunk his own Ship…
Simple and Plain.
McCain lost the Popular Vote [67 Million] and the Electoral Vote [365].
McCain did not get 200 Electoral Votes..
The so called Hero did not get to 200 Electoral Votes !!!
He got his A!! Kicked Royally and the Presidency was Obama’s when PA, Ohio New Mexico & California Votes were concluded.
McCain was too Old and Palin was a Hollow Log
Posted by: O. | December 8, 2008, 12:44 pm 12:44 pm
Obama had to run against the too powerful right wingers and FOX NEWS 24/7 ! he outsmarted the haters and born again nascar lovers!
Posted by: philosopherkingtomas | December 8, 2008, 12:51 pm 12:51 pm
Thanks Matt for the self serving colunm so you can gain favor from the obamas.
Posted by: USA-No1 | December 8, 2008, 12:57 pm 12:57 pm
If you don’t like the campaign finance system, then help us change it. But don’t fault Obama for using it well.
————————————-
jock59801,
Wether you liek or dislike McCain, he helped to put in place some level of campaign finance reform, and then commited political suicide by ACTUALLY keeping his word!
By staying with the public financing, he was restricted, where Obama was not. EVEN THOUGH Obama gave HIS WORD to negotiate with McCain over this issue.
I have no problem with the fact Obama chose the option he did. My issue with it is that he never intended to keep that promise to talk with McCain about it.
Moving forward, if you have groups contributing to candiates in the quantities we are now talking about. How can anyone expect that “REAL CHANGE” will ever happen? You cant just take 750 Million dollars and then ignore those who gave you that money!
The entire cycle needs to be compressed. We dont need primaries going off 10 or 11 months proir to the election. Start holding the primaries in Early May. Get this cycle down to 6 months. Limit the $$ amounts that ANY organization can throw into the mix. The idea that UAW threw hundreds of millions of dollars to ANY candidate with the current conditions going on is just short of criminal!
You think some of those soon to be unemployed auto workers would like to have a cut on those millions now?
Posted by: Mike_C | December 8, 2008, 1:09 pm 1:09 pm
Posted by: philosopherkingtomas..
Obama had to run against the too powerful right wingers and FOX NEWS 24/7 ! he outsmarted the haters and born again nascar lovers!
————
You are Right Philospher
Fox News and Radio are in fact the “Mainstream Media” though Republicans try to imply otherwise.
Obama Defeated the RNC
John McCain and Sarah Palin Robo Calls
Rush Limbaugh
Sean Hannity
Glenn Beck
Dennis Praeger
Bill O’Reily
Michael Savage
An he Defeated Big Time Dominant AM Republican Talking Points Radio..
24 hrs A Day 7 days a Week !!
————–
Obama Beat The Republican Machine !!
Thanks to all the Republican Propogandist named Above for their steadfast Fear Mongering, that noone bought into but those in the…
Confederate South, The Mountainous, The Ozarks, Upper Appalaician America and Poor Rural Regions of the country…
Those states were going to Vote Republican anyway
Obama did in fact WIN in Virginia, Florida and NASCAR …North Carolina !!
Posted by: O. | December 8, 2008, 1:24 pm 1:24 pm
The story wasn’t only about the enormous amounts of money that obama raised – It was because it was under dubious circumstances involving foreign donors, prepaid credit cards, and false names.
Posted by: RespectfulandFrightenedCitizen | December 8, 2008, 1:35 pm 1:35 pm
Just need some guidance here!
Anyone out there with some over-sight how it could have been if Social Security Funds were privatised???
Please talk about it!!!
Posted by: james | December 8, 2008, 1:38 pm 1:38 pm
The story wasn’t only about the enormous amounts of money that obama raised – It was because it was under dubious circumstances involving foreign donors, prepaid credit cards, and false names.The media infatuation with Barack Obama, and its desire not to raise key issues of concern to the American people. Why were there so many people like Rashid Khalidi, Bill Ayers, Rev. Wright, Pfleger, and Tony Rezko in Obama’s past in the first place?
Posted by: RespectfulandFrightenedCitizen | December 8, 2008, 1:38 pm 1:38 pm
Change has come and these are the Reasons why it happened and Money had Nothing to do with it…
When will some of you people stop Moaning and Groaning over a Sound Defeat, Obama Won, Easily.
Your Guy [McCain] was Never going to WIN…
The Times called for a New Leader, an now you have one, now Live with it.
You cannot change it.
Complain for the next 4 years, for all America and the Free World cares…
It won’t change the outcome….
Barack Hussein Obama is your New President !!!
I know that Tees Some of You Off..
But who cares at this point..
He’s our Nation’s New President
An here are the reasons why…
1. The Young Vote and 1st time Voters
Note: Who were never going to vote for a Republican, moreover McCain & Palin.
2. The often overlooked [Independent & Moderate Votes]
Note: Moderate Republicans & Democrats voted for Obama, as well as Independent Voters.
3. The Various groups overlooked in past elections.
Note: Latino American [67%], Asian American [65%] & Bi-Racial America [85%]Voted for Obama.
4. Obama States: California, New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey, Illinois, Washington DC, Washington State, Oregon, Maryland, Connecticut, Minnesota, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, Wisconsin, Maine, Deleware & Virginia…
Note: Those states McCain knew he was not going to WIN anyway…
Yet McCain-Palin continued to Campaign Hard in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, NC and Indiana…to no avail.
5. The Anti-Iraq War Vote
6. The Anti-Bush Vote on both the Republican & Democratic side.
7. The Female Vote with Hillary Clinton’s help, was the Largest Contributing Demographic to a McCain-Palin LOSS…
An with Sarah Palin as the Chicken Bone thrown at them, it was a Big Slap in the face of Feminist in this country and all around the Globe.
Kay Hutchison should’ve been chosen, they still would’ve lost, but Hutchison would have some effect on female voters…
McCain went with a Hollow log and sunk his own Ship…
Simple and Plain.
McCain lost the Popular Vote [67 Million] and the Electoral Vote [365].
McCain did not get 200 Electoral Votes..
The so called Hero did not get to 200 Electoral Votes !!!
He got his A!! Kicked Royally and the Presidency was Obama’s when PA, Ohio New Mexico & California Votes were concluded.
McCain was too Old and Palin was a Hollow Log
Posted by: O. | December 8, 2008, 1:59 pm 1:59 pm
Thank you for this clarifying article!
Unfortunately, you will always have those uninformed idiots who believe that Obama “bought” the election in 2008 just as they continue to insist that Bush actually “won” the election in 2000. They will believe whatever they want and to heck with facts.
Again I say to them…Get Over It Already!!!
Posted by: Dee | December 8, 2008, 4:06 pm 4:06 pm
Obama won, and he’s doing a great job as we anticipated. He refuses to be labelled and the main reason why we voted for him is because he’s very smart and a pragmatist.
For those he didn’t support him, dry the tears, get over it and move on as we did with Bush. The world is not waiting for you and neither are we, at the end of four years you get to vote again. Look to future
Posted by: Donna, Kgn Ja | December 8, 2008, 4:48 pm 4:48 pm
Sure he didn’t buy it… he said he would take public financing but then he switched his position. He then spent $700,000,000.00 running a campaign that outspent mccain by 3 times…..of course he bought the freakin thing!
What I think is so ironic is that barry o was willing to go state to state telling everyone he will make everything fair by “spreading the wealth around”, but he was not willing to give mccain 1/2 of his $700,000,000.00 he raised. Typical liberal- always free with everyone else’s $$.
Posted by: keepthechange | December 8, 2008, 5:15 pm 5:15 pm
My opinion is Obama won because of his consistent, cool manner as the economy went south as contrasted with McCain’s impulsive and inconsistent manner. Obama stayed on topic concerning the economy and the war and McCain stayed on topic concerning Ayers and Socialism. Hey! Voters are smarter than pundits and the people running campaigns think they are.
Posted by: msgijoe | December 8, 2008, 5:22 pm 5:22 pm
Yea, he bought the presidency. He bought it with 4 million people’s money. He bought it with my money and he doesn’t owe me anything except being the best leader that he can be for our and our children’s future. This is democracy at its finest. There is a huge difference between where he got his money and where Bush and his compatriots got theirs, from big donors and corporations. Bush owed plenty to big money special interets. Obama does not.
Posted by: ch3x | December 8, 2008, 8:29 pm 8:29 pm
I was mad that the news media didn’t show more Obama ads in my area! The only ads the media played 24/7 were the McCain ads. They played McCain’s and Hillary’s so much that I thought the news media opened up a special program for helping anybody that choreographed anything AGAINST Obama.
The few campaign ads that I saw presented by Obama, I liked. They were substantive (on the issues) and towards the end got a bit edgy in fighting the republican smears.
Obama did not buy this election with ads! Next, I hope you put to bed the ‘large lobbyist’ contribution lie that the right-wing conspires. Anybody can see that if more citizens (working citizens) must report who their employer is when contributing, but the FEC allows you to retrieve that data in one sum, it creates the appearance that large corporations made the contributions when the corporations, in fact, often did not support the candidate.
A thorough analysis of the FEC rules would probably show that employees of large corporations are unhappy with current systems and are voting AGAINST their employers’ crookedness. But it is the rule that we report our employer when we contribute. That rule violates people’s privacy, too.
The way I see it, the FEC seeks a way to help others to target and distort what the people want.
Posted by: Common Sense | December 8, 2008, 8:53 pm 8:53 pm
The right is crying now because their Meistger “Karl” Rove’s system didn’t work. He produced a turnout. He got the public involved. Republicans were ever for big turnouts. A big turnout usually means a republican defeat. Did anyone ever think the message got him elected? Maybe we got tired of smokey backroom deals. Maybe we got tired of under the table negotiations. That was the only way the Republicans could win.
Posted by: dan kolich | December 8, 2008, 9:28 pm 9:28 pm
Clint, you must be a Muslim convert. Or so the thinking (as evidenced by Jimbo) goes. Guess I am as well. Otherwise, how could lifelong Republicans such as us POSSIBLY vote against what the party has become?
Posted by: Another Republican Disgusted by the Rovian Delusion | December 9, 2008, 12:43 am 12:43 am
The story wasn’t only about the enormous amounts of money that obama raised – It was because it was under dubious circumstances involving foreign donors, prepaid credit cards, and false names.
The story wasn’t only about the enormous amounts of money that obama raised – It was because it was under dubious circumstances involving foreign donors, prepaid credit cards, and false names.The media infatuation with Barack Obama, and its desire not to raise key issues of concern to the American people. Why were there so many people like Rashid Khalidi, Bill Ayers, Rev. Wright, Pfleger, and Tony Rezko in Obama’s past in the first place?
Posted by: Integritywaslost | December 9, 2008, 9:41 am 9:41 am
If you beleive what you wrote was true, then every TV adv should be banned and all that money he spent should be donated to the poor. By the way what happened to the $65-million he had left over from his contributions. I bet he spent it on Hilary debt $21-million and gave a lot of it to his family as gifts. Or did he roll it over for that 2012 repeat election he is planning on. This predident elect is only concerned about number one and thats himself. You media guys can hide true facts & fib only so much. The media is so biase because he colorful figure that you overly protect soon the people begin to see his true colors. Obama is nothing more than a man who changes his colors based on how he see’s the advanage he gets from getting involved with any issue. He will certainly not make a good Commander & Chief, instead I’d plan on calling him a “Sargent at Arms”. In the end after four years gone by & how he has such an outward ego that will push him to retry doing it again. But this time he won’t make it cause bottomline nothing he done will have changed other than blame the other guy.
Posted by: Democraper | December 9, 2008, 10:21 am 10:21 am
I beieve he won because of all the lie’s. For example his campaige claims over four million people donated to his campaige……Wrong go, he actually only had 1.8 milliom. Many, many people who donated did it small amounts of $5 or $10 dollar amounts but the joke & Lie was they donated 30, 45, or 70 times over and over again & again to enable someone to say over 4 million small donators gave to his camp/war chest. What a big fat lie, what a stupid case of fraud being pulled on the digbat voters who voted & beleived in him. I guess the true hurts,,,doesn’t it?
Posted by: Democraper | December 9, 2008, 10:31 am 10:31 am
The media is getting very poor at doing thier true job. Soon No-body will want or buy a newspaper mainly because people only read it for the news. Today the media trys too hard to create its own spin for news instead of just report the facts. All those editors each newspaper has filters facts from fiction and leaves us with fiction or something that so biase that we see it as a joke. A lot of the new article’s written by reporters like you should go back to school to re-learn the basic’s. Todays writers are very blimd & make me laugh at how they report things.
Posted by: Democraper | December 9, 2008, 10:42 am 10:42 am
How come you haven’t reported the facts about his missing truth about his birth certificate? I gues you do not write about the facts nor do you investigate a man who hids the truth. Obama will continue to have to hid the truth for four years if he goes thru and takes office without settling this important issue of law. Plus he’s supposely a lawyer to top it off…… I see the big lie & he’s hoping it will go away. It won’t until he releases his real true birth cetificate and tell us the real story about who this man reaaly is. I ‘d aslo want to see all the other things he hiding from us, such as school records etc etc……..
Posted by: Democraper | December 9, 2008, 10:52 am 10:52 am
Obama made a promise to abide by campaign financial reform practices. He broke that promise and accepted donations that were not only illegal but untraceable. Mathhew Dowd seems to have left this part out.
Since the far left got what they wanted, I certainly hope that America becomes a paradise under Obama’s watch. If something screws up, the liberals will have nobody to blame but their OWN party this time.
Posted by: marco | December 9, 2008, 1:32 pm 1:32 pm
I agree Obama didn’t win because of money. He won because he made people affraid of the republicans. Change? I don’t think so. Just more of the same fear campaigns used by Bush etc…
Posted by: Kelly | December 9, 2008, 2:00 pm 2:00 pm
PEBO really won by using his skills of “Chicago smack down,” media control, and you grease my palm, and I will grease yours!
Oh, and his community organizing skills a la Alinsky!
The money – well how do you think he really amassed it? :(
Posted by: aware2u | December 9, 2008, 2:41 pm 2:41 pm
>He won because he made people affraid of the republicans.
No, honey! Sarah Palin amongst everything else made the electorate afraid! Obama did not “BUY” the election. The American people did! we bought back the hope of regaining our standing internationally, and domestically. We had grown tired of the politcs of fear; “He’s a muslim,” “He pals around with terrorists,” et alia. I knew more about Bill Ayers, socialism (mis-used by the way), Rev Wright, than what the Republican platform was about. Sure! I could have gone to their websites and read about these issues, but if the candidate had no interest in discussing them then they probably weren’t worth reading.
Posted by: FS | December 9, 2008, 2:54 pm 2:54 pm
Sounds not like a lot of bang for the buck.
What all that money did do was allow Obama to get his message heard through all the Republican noise.
It wasn’t necessarily music in the ears of some of us, but we heard it — boy did we hear it.
Posted by: dmjakers | December 9, 2008, 8:13 pm 8:13 pm
this will always be an argument until we have REAL campaign finance reform that says no-one can make a donation to any particular candidate, only to a contest (i.e. A presidential race). Then all money is doled out evenly therefore giving the candidates an even slate……. this includes the lesser parties too. Then we have a fair race and how it ends it ends.
Did I mention the free and equal airtime the networks are forced to give?
That’s CFR!!!!!
Posted by: dk | December 10, 2008, 6:38 am 6:38 am
IM 100% DEMOCRATIC, AND I WAS NOT VOTING FOR THE ANTICHRIST. LIKE ALL THESE NUCKLEHEADS DID AND SEE HE IS THE PRESIDENT NOW AND THE WORLD IS DEFINATELY GOING TO END NOW IN 2012. BOY, YOU OBAMA SUPPORTERS REALLY CUT EVERYBODIES LIVES SHORT. WE NOW ONLY HAVE 4 YEARS TO LIVE ON THIS EARTH. HOPE YOU ALL GOT WHAT YOU ALL WANTED THAT VOTED FOR HIM, BECAUSE I SURELY DIDNT.
Posted by: ****HATER**** | December 10, 2008, 9:49 am 9:49 am
Case 08a469 — Cort Wrotnowski vs Bysiewicz, Connecticut Secretary of State has been distributed by HON. Justice Antonin Scalia for full conference (private, as occurred with Donofrio’s case last Friday) to take place this Friday, December 12th. This case was distributed on the same day, Monday, December 8th, that the U.S. media sensationalized the U.S. Supreme Court decision not to hear Donofrio v. Wells, Secretary of State, New Jersey, to the point of misconstruing that decision to mean that the SCOTUS Justices had affirmed Barack Obama’s eligibility to be President of the United States.
Cort Wrotnowski submitted on December 9th a Supplemental brief to the U.S. Supreme Court (SCOTUS) with evidentiary material substantiating just-unearthed revelations regarding the fraud and deceit perpetrated by the 21st U.S. President Chester A. Arthur — to wit, his having lied, before becoming Vice-President on James Garfield’s presidential ticket, about his family history, specifically about the date his father, William Arthur, had become a naturalized U.S. citizen, which on December 6th was proven by Leo C. Donofrio, Esq. to have been nearly (14) fourteen years AFTER Chester A. Arthur’s birth, conferring dual citizenship upon Chester A. Arthur at his birth, rendering him a U.S. “Native-born” citizen but NOT a NATURAL-BORN U.S. citizen, and therefore ineligible to become either President or Vice-President of the United States.
By virtue of what Barack Obama has already admitted on his “FighttheSmears.com” website which is that dual citizenship (U.K. and U.S.) was conferred upon him at birth because his father was a citizen of a foreign power, NO birthing document whatsoever is necessary to prove or disprove the U.S. “Natural-born” citizen status of Barack Obama. At birth, he is automatically *NOT* a U.S. *NATURAL-BORN* citizen, and can never gain it, regardless of where he was born.
The only claim that could stand to be verified/confirmed by way of birthing documentation is the claim that he is a U.S. “Native-born” citizen; that is, that he was born on U.S. soil (land under U.S. jurisdiction) and therefore a citizen of the U.S.
The Donofrio and Wrotnowski cases are banked on the fact that for probably most of the first three quarters of this nation’s history the understanding of the meaning of the “Natural-born” category of U.S. citizenship was commonplace. It is only in the post-World-Wars era that this commonplace understanding began to slip away from the nation’s collective consciousness, until, in this age of reactionary attitude toward egregious government behavior, beginning in earnest with the assassination of JFK, Americans have increasingly put all things civic out of mind out of disdain and disgust. It is within this atmosphere of widespread disinterest in how our system of government is constituted that abuse and corruption can find root. This is evidenced by the fact that over the last several weeks hardly anyone immediately understood that “Natural-born” and “Native-born” were not interchangeable terms.
That said, a Birth Certificate IS NOT the same as a “Certifica-*tion* of Live Birth.” The Certification of Live Birth is NOT a document that is acceptable for nearly all critical purposes as formal proof of original nationality (country of “natural birth”). A secondary point to bear in mind is that, in Hawai’i, an actual ‘Birth Certificate’ is referred to using the words, “Certifi-cate of Live Birth.” This ‘long-form,’ “vault” Certificate of Live Birth, as it is the Birth Certificate, displays much more information surrounding the birth, such as hospital name, doctor’s name and signature, weight, height, even a footprint. However, Hawai’i may issue a certified “Certifica-tion of Live Birth” as merely an abbreviated report of an actual ‘Certificate of Live Birth.’
The Obama Campaign posted, on the “FighttheSmears” webpage (http://fightthesmears.com/articles/5/birthcertificate, a “Certifica-tion of Live Birth” on June 13, 2008, calling it a Birth Certificate. It is not. It represents the abbreviated report that, when having a certifying embossment, may serve official purposes of a non-critical nature. On the document posted on the FighttheSmears.com website, however, there appears no certifying embossment, no signature, and the Certificate No. (which would refer back to the actual and as-yet unpublished “Certificate of Live Birth” document) is blackened out. It is reported by Hawaiian state officials that the official certifying embossment, the date-stamp, and signature customarily appear on the reverse side of these abbreviated “Certification of Live Birth” reports. There is a faint mark on the online scan of the Certification of Live Birth posted on the FighttheSmears page possibly indicating the existence of a date-stamp on the reverse side of the scanned paper document. On scanning other such documents, however, invariably the certifying embossment is discernible, albeit to varying degrees, regardless of the side of the document that is scanned. If there does exist a certifying stamp on the reverse side of the Certification of Live Birth on the Obama “FighttheSmears.com” webpage, it does not appear to be embossed.
On November 1st, Hawai’i state officials confirmed that the Certification of Live Birth posted on Obama’s campaign site, “Fightthesmears.com,” is not the actual ‘long-form’ Certificate of Live Birth (Birth Certificate), but rather an example of the state’s issuance of the abbreviated report known as a “Certifica-tion of Live Birth.” They confirmed also that there is on file a typewritten Certificate of Live Birth (actual “Birth Certificate”), but they keep its contents private.
Meanwhile, on November 22nd, 2008, arguments were published allegedly proving that Obama’s “Certifica-tion of Live Birth” posted on his “FighttheSmears.com” webpage is a forgery. However, whether or not it is a forgery is moot. This abbreviated report simply is not equivalent to a “Birth Certificate” at all.
Also moot is the fact that the document posted on the “FighttheSmears.com” website is not the ‘long-form’ Certificate of Live Birth, as the issue in front of the nine U.S. Supreme Court Justices tomorrow is the question of the affirmation of the long-understood meaning of U.S. “Natural-born” citizen status, which in Barack Obama’s case no longer stands in need to be proved or disproved. If anything is to be proved or disproved via a ‘long-form’ Birth Certificate, it is his U.S. “Native-born” citizenship status (birth on U.S. soil). A Certificate of Live Birth, by itself, does not prove U.S. “Natural-born” citizenship status. If proof of U.S. “Natural-born” citizenship status indeed must be provided, the documentation that would do that is — *both together* — the ‘long-form’ Birth Certificate (Certificate of Live Birth), showing hospital name, doctor’s name, etc, proving the child’s birth on U.S. soil, *AND* documentation proving the U.S. citizenship status of the *father.* The child would then be proven to be BOTH a U.S. “Native-born” citizen AND a U.S. “Natural-born” citizen.
Despite all biased media reports to the contrary, to this day Barack Obama has not proven his U.S. “Native-born” citizenship (birth on U.S. soil). Despite all display of confidence, Barack Obama is struggling against becoming known. Someday Americans will be able to more clearly look back at these times and discern the great disservice that this nation’s media has done to the welfare of our Constitutional Democracy in the short run. Yet, in the long run it will be the full recognition of the stark nature of this period of journalistic prostitution that will serve eventually to catapult our evolving Democracy into its inevitable future.
If the U.S. Supreme Court Justices do not grasp the baton of destiny now reaching out to them, this nation will have to endure great social dysfunction over a transitional period of indefinite duration while we await a more enlightened time when it is widely recognized and accepted that expediency is not a valid substitute for truth and the constitutional rule of law. http://truthliving.com/obamafraud.htm
Posted by: Opey | December 11, 2008, 6:23 pm 6:23 pm
According to the book of Revelation, the anti-Christ: will be a man in his 40s, of MUSLIM descent, who will come out of nowhere, decieve the nations with persuasive language, and have a MASSIVE Christ-like appeal….. the prophesy says that people will flock to him and he will promise false hope and world peace, and when he is in power, will destroy everything. Is it OBAMA? I STRONGLY URGE YOU TO THINK ABOUT IT AND SEND THIS TO ALL YOUR FRIENDS WHO HAVE THE PRIVILEGE TO VOTE. THE BOOK OF REVELATION SAYS THAT THE BEAST WILL BE ALLOWED TO HAVE AUTHORITY APPROX 42 months (in ch 13) Thats almost a 4 year presidency term. Lord have mercy on us!
IM 100% DEMOCRATIC, AND I WAS NOT VOTING FOR THE ANTICHRIST. LIKE ALL THESE NUCKLEHEADS DID AND SEE HE IS THE PRESIDENT NOW AND THE WORLD IS DEFINATELY GOING TO END NOW IN 2012. BOY, YOU OBAMA SUPPORTERS REALLY CUT EVERYBODIES LIVES SHORT. WE NOW ONLY HAVE 4 YEARS TO LIVE ON THIS EARTH. HOPE YOU ALL GOT WHAT YOU ALL WANTED THAT VOTED FOR HIM, BECAUSE I SURELY DIDNT.
Posted by: TO ALL U DUMMIES | January 14, 2009, 11:01 am 11:01 am
this is an article that came over from yahoo for todays inauguration of obama. now if you notice in his own words he states this..”Make sure I do something simple,” he told Sasha Bruce organizers. “Don’t give me plumbing or electrical work.” now if he needs something simple to do, how can he actually be the president of the USA, because being the president is not an easy job to take on for 4 years.
Throughout the day, Obama showed no hints of nervousness about becoming president within hours.
“I don’t sweat,” he told volunteers at Sasha Bruce House, a shelter for homeless teens in one of Washington’s poorer neighborhoods. “You ever see me sweat?”
All day, he switched easily from self-deprecation to faux cockiness to calls for action.
“Make sure I do something simple,” he told Sasha Bruce organizers. “Don’t give me plumbing or electrical work.”
As he painted a wall with a roller brush, he quoted King as saying, “Everybody can be great because everybody can serve.”
“Right?” he asked the late civil rights leader’s eldest son, Martin Luther King III, who was almost overlooked while painting nearby.
“Right,” King assured the president-elect.
so like i stated before to all you knuckleheads that voted for obama that our lives will end in 2012, because he is the antichrist, so all you obama voters just cut everybodies lives very short. read the book of revelations and watch the history channel and you will see for yourself if you dont believe me.
Posted by: TO ALL U DUMMIES | January 20, 2009, 11:29 am 11:29 am
You are right Matthew, Hussein did not buy the presidency. Ophrah bought it for him.
Posted by: JB | January 23, 2009, 5:06 pm 5:06 pm
Oh please. If the situation had been reversed and McCain had raised $750 million and Obama only had $84 million of public funds, the left would have gone absolutely bananas accusing McCain of an unfair, lopsided advantage. They would have portrayed Obama as the victim. And you can bet that McCain would have had every penny investigated by the press (as they found time in between bouts of digging through Palin’s garbage).
Posted by: Stacy | January 23, 2009, 11:29 pm 11:29 pm
Technically this guy is correct. OBAMA, formerly Mr.Soetoro, did not buy this election. His friends, like George Soros, bought the election. And Hollywood moguls. And hedgefund managers (did they know they’d need a bailout). And who knows how many funds came from the Middle-East and other international sources since it is pretty easy to hide donations, especially with Obama’s system of using internet and front-groups (MoveOn, ACORN, CAIR etc). So it is true that OBAMA DIDN’T BUY the election but OTHERS BOUGHT THE PRESIDENCY FOR HIM.
Posted by: Ed | January 29, 2009, 3:20 pm 3:20 pm
We are discussing this issue along with a whole slew of others over on my political blog. Recently we began tackling the issue of where the Republican party needs to go in order to rebound. We have topics on all sorts of topics including the idea of third party viability. An exert from there:
Regardless of which of the above categories you fall into, the bottom line is that the lack of respectful, intelligent, logical, honest, and non-judgmental debate in America is the single largest obstacle to our country getting back to the state that it needs to get to. It keeps us divided and in turn keeps us powerless. Without a united front against the government waste, corruption, control, and theft, the American people have no chance to combat it. The politicians know that and they do their best to create the environment the way it is so we don’t stop arguing with each other long enough to realize that both parties are taking advantage of us daily.
So I am asking all of you to take a moment and jump over there and join in on the conversation. Be respectful and offer your version of where the party is wrong or right and what needs to change. Get there here:
http://standupforamerica.wordpress.com
Hope to see you there.
Posted by: USWeapon | February 5, 2009, 3:47 am 3:47 am
Obama didn’t buy the election, others bought it for him…
And now, it is payback time. Why do you think there is so much PORK in this porkulous bill.
Posted by: Heidi | February 6, 2009, 6:44 pm 6:44 pm
Somewhere in the world, a muslim country is missing its biggest idiot.
Posted by: Liz | February 13, 2009, 6:45 pm 6:45 pm
Dowd – he didn’t have to. People like you and George Stephonopolus and ABC, and all the other liberal newsworks bought the presidency for him. This is the first time in my life I can say “I am not proud to be an American.”. People like you make me sick.
Posted by: Jane | February 21, 2009, 7:36 pm 7:36 pm
Yes he did buy the presidency with the media and Hollywood elite cheering the whole way.
Posted by: nuts for obama | March 1, 2009, 10:27 pm 10:27 pm
No he didn’t buy it, the media handed it to him.
Posted by: Ken | March 2, 2009, 9:20 pm 9:20 pm
THE TRUE MEANING OF OBAMA IS LISTED BELOW:
ONE
BAD
ASS
MISTAKE
AMERICA
Posted by: RETARDS | March 5, 2009, 9:34 am 9:34 am
Pinocchio’s actions are speaking louder than any media can..If only the people
would open their ears and eyes!
Posted by: lvh | March 5, 2009, 12:27 pm 12:27 pm
YEAH RIGHT, WHATEVER!!!
OPEN ARE EARS TO LISTEN TO WHAT HE SPEAKS AND THAT IS WHAT EVERYONE WANTS TO HEAR, THATS ONLY TO SUCK YOU IDIOTS INTO HIS WORLD, TO GET THE VOTES AND NOW HE SEES THAT YOU FOOLS FELL FOR IT, NOW SINCE HE IS DEFINATELY PRESIDENT, YOU WILL SEE HOW THEY REALLY ARE NOW. JUST GIVE IT SOME TIME, EVERYONE OF YOU OBAMA SUPPORTERS WILL REGRET IT WHEN THE TIMES COME. JUST MARK MY WORDS.
Posted by: RETARDS | March 9, 2009, 10:15 am 10:15 am
Obama didn’t buy the presidency he won because he’s a great speaker! He can sell an Eskimo snow and that’s what he did. American’s were tired of G.W. Bush’s bullheadedness and Hillary didn’t have a chance because she was a woman. Record numbers minorities (that happened to be democrats) registered to vote and now he’s in office. Hopefully, in 4 or 8 years we’ll get a Sensible PERSON that will cut taxes and special interest funding. I don’t want Robin Hood in Office.
Posted by: Rich | March 14, 2009, 11:57 am 11:57 am
YEAH, THAT SENSIBLE PERSON WAS HILLARY, BUT NO ALL THE KNUCKLEHEADS VOTED FOR THE NI**ER, LIKE FOOLS YOU ALL ARE. THE PRESIDENTS SEAT IS FOR THE WHITE, NOW THE NI**ERS THINK THAT THEY HAVE SOME TYPE OF POWER OVER US WHITE. THE NI**ERS NEED TO RETHINK THAT BEFORE THEY CROSS THE LINE. WE THE WHITE CAN STILL VETO ONI**ER OUT OF THE WHITE HOUSE SEAT. SO DONT FOR ONE CHANCE THINK THAT YOU HAVE CONTROL OVER US WHITE, BECAUSE THAT WILL NEVER HAPPEN!!!
HAVE A NICE LIFE YOU BUNCH OF NI**ER SUPPORTERS.
Posted by: WHITE POWER | March 16, 2009, 11:15 am 11:15 am
Obama won because he is a novelty and because every voter under the age of 30 was told by CNBC that Saddam Hussein was a victem!
Posted by: Butch.F | March 19, 2009, 3:11 pm 3:11 pm
Obama won because most Americans are too lazy to actually research the voting records and political agendas of candidates. Obama has zero political achievements to his name…other than winning the POTUS. Only in America would you see someone so unqualified elected to the most powerful office in the world b/c he spouts out catch phrases such as “Hope” and “Change”. I guess his idea of change is sending troops to Afghanistan instead of Iraq and “changing” his mind on the Iraq withdrawal. Now he says he foresees having 50K troops in Iraq long-term. That is EXACTLY the kind of ongoing presense in Iraq that McCain had talked about and Obama then alleged that McCain wanted to fight the war for a 100 years. Obama is a complete fraud and charlatan. He is going to completely bankrupt this country by quadrupaling the already huge deficit in the next 5 years if his budget is passed! Please, call your senators and tell them to vote against Obama’s budget proposal before our dollar is worth nothing.
Posted by: sarah | March 23, 2009, 9:03 pm 9:03 pm
obama won cause he is black and the left still feels guilty about slavery.
Posted by: tom | April 8, 2009, 10:41 pm 10:41 pm
PLEASE HELP! I’am Homeless American Veteran! PLEASE HELP ME! I’am trying to raise One Million Dollars to get off the street and end my chronic Homelessness. Visit my website at; … homelessinamerica(dot)bravehost(dot)com … to find out how you can send a donation and how you can help me today. I have been homeless in America over 20 years! HURRY! and send your desperately needed donation today! PLEASE HELP ME!
Posted by: CHARLES | April 21, 2009, 8:16 pm 8:16 pm
and that 4 billion to acorn is just a coincidence.
Posted by: tom | April 23, 2009, 8:21 pm 8:21 pm
Clearly written and researched. Is anyone listening? The extreme Right is blinded by anger; how could they possibly lose to a Black man with a Muslim father? America is complex and Americans, thankfully, unpredictable.
We travel the world on a tandem bicycle, and even the Muslims of Central Asia treated us with respect. We go back to Asia this fall for another pedal diplomacy journey. Wish us luck.
Posted by: bob rogers | April 26, 2009, 11:41 pm 11:41 pm
I don’t really care how much money Obama raised for this election. What I care about is where the money came from, and I am certain the money did not come in from the masses as reported. I have talked to many people in my area and I have not met one person who admits to giving money to Obama’s election coffers. There would have to be at least one, given the amount of money Obama raised. I believe the main reason Obama won is all the positive coverage he received from all news sources. He was given a free pass, no one pressed or challenged him in any meaningful way. Everything Obama said or did was treated as if it came from God Himself.
On the other hand, everything McCain said or did was criticized, picked apart, and ultimately compared to President Bush. In fact, the whole election was Obama running against George Bush. John McCain didn’t have a chance.
Even now, 100 days plus into the Presidency of Obama, I still see the preferential treatment given to him. He is still getting a free pass. The bias of the news media is definitely showing.
Posted by: Bear | April 28, 2009, 10:30 am 10:30 am
Money is raised to further a campaign. Where did the money go – if not on winning the election?
Posted by: swh | April 30, 2009, 2:14 pm 2:14 pm