PEBO Provides Stimulus Details on Where and When the Jobs Will Be

By Dotcomabc

Jan 10, 2009 9:41am

Twenty-six thousand jobs in mining.

Eleven thousand jobs in utilities.

408,000 in manufacturing.

And 244,000 jobs in government.

In his weekly radio/Youtube address released this morning, President-elect Obama presents a report on the stimulus package detailing how many jobs would be created or saved by the plan, and where exactly the jobs would be.

The current economic crisis, the President-elect says, "is an extraordinary challenge, which is why I’ve taken the extraordinary step of working – even before I take office – with my economic team and leaders of both parties" on the stimulus package.

The report, put together by his nominee for Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Dr. Christina Romer, and the vice president-elect’s Chief Economic Adviser, Dr. Jared Bernstein, projects an increase in Gross Domestic Project of 3.7 percent by the fourth quarter of 2010 if the stimulus package becomes law.

"The U.S. economy has already lost nearly 2.6 million jobs since the business cycle peak in December 2007," the report says. "In the absence of stimulus, the economy could lose another 3 to 4 million more. Thus, we are working to counter a potential total job loss of at least 5 million."

Even with the stimulus package, the Obama economists are projecting an unemployment rate in the 4th quarter of 2010 of 7 percent. Without the package, it would be 8.8 percent, they project, with an additional  3 to 4 million jobs lost. The stimulus package, the economists predict, would create or save 3,675,000 jobs.
 
Mr. Obama says the report indicates that the stimulus package:

  • will "(s)ave or create three to four million jobs" — that number is more than the 2 million he initially pledged, and more than the 3 million he has been projecting more recently;
  • will see "(m)ore than 90 percent of the jobs created" in the private sector. "Most of the remainder would be professionals on the front lines serving the public whose jobs are saved from state and local budget cuts" — this is different from his previous projection that 80 percent of the jobs would be in the private sector and his description of the public sector jobs has a different description of the government jobs, likely to pushback against GOP concerns that Mr. Obama is pledging the creation of 600,000 new government jobs;
  • will create "nearly half a million jobs" by investing in clean energy and "nearly 400,000 people" would be put to work investments in infrastructure.

These numbers are based on very specific projections in the study, though the report also states: "It should be understood that all of the estimates presented in this memo are subject to significant margins of error. There is the obvious uncertainty that comes from modeling a hypothetical package rather than the final legislation passed by the Congress."

The economists project the following jobs that will be created, per stimulus section, either directly or indirectly:

  • energy 459,000
  • infrastructure 377,000
  • health care 244,000
  • education 250,000
  • protecting vulnerable 549,000
  • state relief 821,000
  • making work pay tax cut 505,000 (all indirectly)
  • business tax incentives 470,000 (all indirect)

Or more specifically, per industry:

  • Mining 26,000
  • Construction 678,000
  • Manufacturing 408,000
  • Wholesale Trade 158,000
  • Retail Trade 604,000
  • Information 50,000
  • Financial Activities 214,000
  • Professional and Business Services 345,000
  • Education and Health Services 240,000
  • Leisure and Hospitality 499,000
  • Other Services 99,000
  • Utilities 11,000
  • Transportation and Warehousing 98,000
  • Government 244,000

As for timing, the projections are:

  • 46 percent of the jobs in energy, infrastructure, health and education would come by the end of 2009, with 41 percent by the end of 2011.
  • 83 percent of the "protecting the vulnerable" jobs would be by 2009, 17 percent by 2011.
  • 48 percent of the state relief jobs by 2009, 48 percent by 2011.
  • 83 percent of the business tax incentives by 2009, 28 percent by 2011
  • and 67 percent of the making work pay tax cut by 2009, 37 percent by 2011.

In the video address, Mr. Obama also repeats pledges he made earlier in the week:

  • doubling the production of alternative energy in the next three years,
  • modernizing more than 75 percent of federal buildings,
  • improving the energy efficiency of two million American homes,
  • transitioning to a nationwide system of computerized medical records,
  • equipping tens of thousands of schools with 21st century classrooms, labs and computers and
    laying down miles of new broadband lines.

He also says he will work on: bipartisan extensions of unemployment insurance and health care coverage; a $1,000 tax cut for 95 percent of working families; and assistance to help states avoid harmful budget cuts in essential services like police, fire, education and health care.

- jpt

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