The Note, 1/5/09: Hope is a Verb — Obama Era Dawns with Leadership Test

By RICK KLEIN The house in Chicago is empty. He’s checked into his hotel. His team is on board (mostly). The kids are in school. And it’s the first day back to a different kind of school for a president-elect who hasn’t taken this class before. Short two senators and one Cabinet member, with his home-state governor and (maybe) junior senator making mischief for him, plus a worsening economic crisis and a fresh foreign-policy challenge on his radar, President-elect Barack Obama’s era in Washington starts (just about) on Monday. With Roland Burris and Bill Richardson and Rod Blagojevich and Al Franken and Caroline Kennedy as sideshows, Obama is just a bit weakened for the travails of the past month. But if this isn’t quite the return to Washington Obama had in mind, that only heightens the importance of the test of tone and leadership skills he’s facing this week — one that could tell us what kind of term to expect, and maybe what kind of economy we’ll be dealing with, too. The battle lines are in place: Republicans are making the stimulus bill the first rallying point for (possible) opposition to the president-elect. Moderate Democrats are experiencing a touch of early sticker shock. And the nation waits to see what kind of leader Obama will be when it comes time to turn hope into action. As first moves go, this one will get high marks for practicality (and couple that with Richardson’s withdrawal): “President-elect Barack Obama plans to include about $300 billion in tax cuts for workers and businesses in his economic recovery program, advisers said Sunday, as his team seeks to win over Congressional skeptics worried that he was too focused on government spending,” Peter Baker and Carl Hulse report in The New York Times. That’s 40 percent of a package that will clock in between $675 billion and $775 billion, Team Obama says, and that’s one big way to defang the opposition. “The size of the proposed tax cuts — which would account for about 40% of a stimulus package that could reach $775 billion over two years — is greater than many on both sides of the aisle in Congress had anticipated. It may make it easier to win over Republicans who have stressed that any initiative should rely more heavily on tax cuts rather than spending,” Jonathan Weisman and Naftali Bendavid report in The Wall Street Journal. “The Obama tax-cut proposals, if enacted, could pack more punch in two years than either of President George W. Bush’s tax cuts did in their first two years,” they write, in a talking point you will hear again. (How do Republicans frame their opposition to this?) With bipartisan Capitol Hill meetings scheduled Monday, this is Obama the deal-maker, the legislator — and it’s not a role he’s really had to play before, not at this level. He’ll cap his week with a Thursday address to the nation (though not in prime time), as he makes a full-on push for a stimulus bill that aims to rub against conventional Washington wisdom. “There are signs that the usual divisions that send so many ambitious bills down to defeat will confront President-elect Barack Obama in his first weeks on the job,” Shailagh Murray and Paul Kane reported in the Sunday Washington Post. “With Republicans holding just enough seats to put the brakes on sweeping initiatives in the Senate, the fate of Obama’s agenda may rest on his ability to deliver on another campaign pledge: to change the way Washington does business by adopting a more pragmatic and inclusive governing style.” Keep an eye on the relationships: It’s an “entirely new role” for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., The New York Times’ Carl Hulse reports. “Now she finds herself about to become facilitator in chief, working with her Senate counterpart, Harry Reid of Nevada, to advance the ideals of the nation’s new No. 1 Democrat: Barack Obama,” Hulse writes. “Ms. Pelosi said she was more than willing to make room at the top, saying she was overjoyed to be working with a fellow Democrat in the Oval Office after two years of butting heads with President Bush on everything from the war in Iraq to children’s health care to overall spending.” The quote that tells the story that will matter: “She understands strategically that if we do well, they will do well,” said Rahm Emanuel, Obama’s incoming chief of staff and a former Pelosi lieutenant. Not that anyone has set any bars: “Not since President Franklin D. Roosevelt and the New Deal have public expectations been so high — or so acute — at the start of a new Congress,” Gail Russell Chaddock writes for the Christian Science Monitor. “A new Congress with strengthened Democratic majorities convenes tomorrow with one overriding goal: speed,” Bloomberg’s Laura Litvan writes. Bold predictions for the new year, from Bloomberg’s Al Hunt: “By the end of April, Barack Obama will probably have passed an economic package, historic in size and scope, and will need to have made discernible progress on global crises. . . . Bold or out-of-the-box measures will be forthcoming, advisers to the 44th president promise, to demonstrate change. These will be selective and not ideologically driven, they say. . . . One highly likely scenario: At a critical moment, probably involving national security, John McCain could well be the president’s most important ally. . . . Equally certain, however, is that movement conservatives, both politicians and pundits, will hammer away at Obama from the beginning. This is the way to gin up their constituencies.” Already, a delay (and — just maybe — a second early win for the GOP): “It’s going to be difficult to get the package together [by Jan. 20],” House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., said on “Fox News Sunday.” “We don’t anticipate that Congress will have passed an Economic Recovery and Reinvestment plan by the time the Inauguration takes place,” incoming White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said aboard Obama’s plane from Chicago to Washington. And Republicans have their own ideas. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell wants tax cuts, plus loans instead of grants to states: “We want to make sure that it’s not just a trillion dollar spending bill,” McConnell told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “This Week.” “This is an enormous bill, it could be a trillion-dollar spending bill. Do we want to do it with essentially no hearings and no input, for example, in the Senate from Republican senators who represent half the American population? I don’t think that’s a good idea.” Bipartisanship reigns on Monday. From the transition office: “President-elect Barack Obama will meet with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid on Capitol Hill on Monday. Vice President-elect Joe Biden will join Obama for a meeting with Democratic and Republican congressional leadership on Capitol Hill on Monday afternoon. Meeting participants will include Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Senate Assistant Majority Leader Dick Durbin, Senate Minority Whip Jon Kyl, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, House Minority Leader John Boehner, House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn and House Minority Whip Eric Cantor.” “Aides tell ABC News in his meetings with congressional leaders later today, President-elect Obama will try to convey urgency. With new job loss numbers coming out Friday, Mr. Obama wants to break the cycle of the recession,” ABC’s Jake Tapper reported on “Good Morning America” Monday. Later, Obama meets with his economic team in Washington, at his transition office That’s a team that’s down one: Gov. Bill Richardson, D-N.M., follows in the grand tradition of jettisoned Cabinet picks in getting out before it got messy for him on the Hill. (And the RNC — pushing the pay-to-play story for weeks — can claim a scalp, should it so choose.) (Plus — is there any way Obama can choose someone for Commerce who isn’t Latino?) It marks the end of the seamless transition: “The decision by New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson to withdraw his name from consideration as secretary of Commerce today marks the first visible crack in what had been one of the smoothest presidential transitions in modern history,” Washingtonpost.com’s Chris Cillizza writes. “Richardson’s withdrawal was the first hitch in Obama’s efforts to speedily assemble a government before he takes office in two weeks. The news was revealed hours before Obama traveled to Washington to resettle his family and begin an aggressive push for an economic stimulus bill that Obama has said will be his first legislative priority,” Sasha Issenberg writes in The Boston Globe. “Lobbying for the stimulus package on Capitol Hill would probably have been among the new administration’s first tasks for Richardson, a Democrat who spent seven terms in Congress before becoming United Nations ambassador and energy secretary during Bill Clinton’s presidency.” “The federal probe heated up considerably last month, just around the time Obama announced Richardson as his choice for commerce secretary, according to sources familiar with the investigation. New subpoenas were issued, and testimony was scheduled from officials at J.P. Morgan Chase who worked for the state with CDR and from the director of Richardson’s political action committees,” The Washington Post’s Michael D. Shear and Carol D. Leonnig report. Richardson is still talking like he’s expecting to end up with an administration job eventually, but first he’ll have to climb out from under this bus: “Sources tell ABC News that officials on the Obama Transition Team feel that before he was formally offered the job of commerce secretary, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson was not forthcoming with them about the federal investigation that is looking into whether the governor steered a state contract towards a major financial contributor,” ABC’s Jake Tapper reports. “President-elect Obama did not ask Richardson to withdraw his name from consideration, sources from both camps say, but the fact that the confirmation seemed untenable in the short term was apparent to everyone involved,” Tapper reports. “A Democratic source said Obama’s questioners came away empty handed. ‘Those guys were pressed for information and they gave nothing,’ the source said,” per Politico’s Jonathan Martin. “Now some Democrats are questioning Obama’s vetting process — and asking whether Obama’s team went far enough in pushing the New Mexico governor for information in face of the federal grand jury probe that has been public since August.” This, in Blago’s wake, was too much: “The inquiry is part of a national investigation of ‘pay-to-play’ practices in the municipal bond market, in which financial companies make political donations to officeholders in order to be considered for public business,” Mike Dorning writes in the Los Angeles Times. The Blagojevich scandal “made it impossible for President-elect Obama to keep him right now,” ABC’s George Stephanopoulos reports. “This Richardson hiccup is likely to be a small blip — especially if they are able to come in with a easy-to-confirm replacement for Gov. Richardson in the next week or so.” Who could see it coming? “When he ran for president, Bill Richardson touted more than an adventurous style and impressive resume. He was the guy who embraced flaws as a strength, the one who said the American people ‘don’t want blow-dried candidates with perfection,’ ” per the AP’s Ben Feller. The background, per Bloomberg’s Hans Nichols (and there had been public reports on this as early as last August): “The grand jury in Albuquerque is looking into Beverly Hills, California-based CDR Financial Products Inc., which received almost $1.5 million in fees from the New Mexico Finance Authority in 2004 after donating $100,000 to Richardson’s efforts to register Hispanic and American Indian voters and pay for expenses at the Democratic National Convention in 2004, according to people familiar with the matter.” That piece of drama avoided — Gov. Rod Blagojevich, D-Ill., to the rescue. Roland Burris, D-Ill., heads to Washington Monday to claim the Senate seat Blagojevich tapped him for — except it may not be his to collect. “On the eve of traveling to Washington, where Senate Democratic leaders have vowed to refuse to seat him Tuesday, Burris declared himself the state’s newest senator. ‘I am now the junior senator from the state of Illinois. Some people, they want to doubt that. That is their right,’ Burris said [Sunday night] at a Chicago prayer service,” the Chicago Tribune’s Rick Pearson and Jeff Long report. “Burris once again pledged to not create ‘any theater’ at the nation’s Capitol, and Reid sounded a similar conciliatory note by refusing to rule out the possibility that Burris would be seated against the wishes of Senate Democrats,” Pearson and Long write. “Burris’ mere presence to try to claim the seat will, of course, be a spectacle,” Lynn Sweet writes for the Chicago Sun-Times. “He won’t get into the chamber because the Senate Democratic leadership doesn’t want anyone sent by Blagojevich, accused of trying to sell Obama’s seat for a plum job or campaign cash.” Burris tells Sweet: “There is no confrontation here, there is no antagonism here. . . . And so we are proceeding very diplomatically, and we are proceeding with all concern about not creating any type of circus that will entertain the media.” Wiggle room? “Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said the chamber has the authority to block the appointment of Roland Burris but left open the possibility that he could still be seated,” Douglas Belkin reports in The Wall Street Journal. Said Reid, on “Meet the Press”: “There’s always room to negotiate.” Speaking of: “Arrangements are under way for a Wednesday meeting between Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., and Roland Burris, the Democrat tapped by Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich to succeed President-elect Barack Obama in the U.S. Senate," ABC News has learned, per ABC’s Louise Schiavone. The other track, per the Journal’s Belkin: “Illinois Speaker of the House Michael Madigan called for a special session on Wednesday. A vote to impeach could come as early as this week, setting up a trial in the state Senate later this month.” With the Senate appointment likely to be sent to die in committee, the impeachment timeline matters: “If the state lawmakers vote to impeach Blagojevich, Illinois Lt. Governor Pat Quinn could make his own appointment,” ABC’s Z. Byron Wolf reports. “That would not automatically nullify Burris’ appointment, but it would give the Senate the ability to seat the new appointee instead and, at that point, Burris would have to gauge whether a protracted court fight would be worth the trouble.” The Chicago Tribune editorial page keeps up the special-election drumbeat: “What about the voters in this plundered state? Is anyone asking them what they want? They elected Barack Obama to the Senate. Obama quit to accept a better job. That’s his privilege. Choosing his replacement should be their privilege, just as replacing Rahm Emanuel is the privilege of voters who live in his congressional district.” As for that other Senate vacancy . . . Sen. Chuck Schumer’s enthusiasm notwithstanding, it’s not over just yet. “The state Canvassing Board was poised to certify the results of the recount in Minnesota’s grueling Senate election in Al Franken’s favor — but that doesn’t mean the race is definitely over,” the AP’s Amy Forliti writes. “The board was to meet Monday and was expected to declare which candidate received the most overall votes from nearly 3 million ballots cast. The latest numbers showed Franken, a Democrat, with a 225-vote lead over Republican Sen. Norm Coleman.” “But after the announcement, there will be a seven-day waiting period before an election certificate is completed. If any lawsuits are filed during that waiting period, certification is conditional until the issue is settled in court.” An Obama ally, in place: “Virginia Gov. Timothy M. Kaine will become chairman of the Democratic National Committee later this month, serving as the top political messenger for Barack Obama’s administration even while finishing his final year in the governor’s mansion,” Michael D. Shear reports in The Washington Post. Might this be a higher-profile job than the vice presidency? “Kaine, a friend of the president-elect’s, is a gregarious chief executive who is known to relish political combat and helped put Virginia in the Democratic presidential election column for the first time in almost 50 years,” Shear writes. “Two sources said Obama will announce his choice of Kaine for the DNC post later this week.” The RNC fight heats up: “Republican National Committee members gathering this week in Washington to start selecting a new chairman who can help get their party back on track will hear from four candidates who have secured enough public endorsements to be nominated,” The Hill’s Reid Wilson reports. “South Carolina GOP chief Katon Dawson, Former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, Michigan Republican Party chairman Saul Anuzis and current chairman Robert M. ‘Mike’ Duncan all have the backing of a majority of delegates from three states, the threshold for appearing on the ballot. Two other candidates have yet to release enough names to guarantee a spot on the ballot. Former Maryland Lieutenant Gov. Michael Steel and former Tennessee GOP party chairman Chip Saltsman, who was criticized by Duncan and Anuzis for circulating a CD to RNC members that included the parody song ‘Barack the Magic Negro,’ are also running for the position,” Wilson writes. USA Today’s Jill Lawrence: “The RNC’s 168 members pick a new chairman Jan. 28. The race spills into public view today with a debate sponsored by Americans for Tax Reform.” New from the Presidential Inaugural Committee Monday — your new hot ticket: “In keeping with his commitment to make this inaugural celebration open and accessible to all Americans, President-elect Barack Obama will host the first-ever ‘Neighborhood Inaugural Ball’ during this year’s inaugural celebration. The ball will be the premier event of inauguration evening on January 20th and will take place at the Washington Convention Center.” Your regular dose of Sarah Palin news: “A Mat-Su drug investigator and the union representing Alaska State Troopers are alleging political meddling in the Sherry Johnston drug case, including a delay in serving the search warrant because of the November election,” Sean Cockerham writes for the Anchorage Daily News. The Kicker: “I am now the junior senator from the state of Illinois.” — Roland Burris, maybe not so much. “I’d like to see him be president some day. . . . Right now is probably a bad time. . . .” — Former President George H.W. Bush, on his son, Jeb, on Fox News. Bookmark the link below to get The Note’s daily morning analysis:
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