Chris Dodd’s Bad Poll Numbers in GOP’s Sight

ABC News’ David Chalian and Jonathan Karl Report:  Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has long been a 2010 longshot target for national Republicans who are eager to try and pick off the Senate’s top Democrat when he runs for reelection in Nevada next year.  But a new poll out today in Connecticut may provide evidence that the more vulnerable veteran Democrat of the Senate this cycle is Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT).

As the Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, Sen. Dodd is a major player in President Obama’s effort to stabilize the financial system.  He is also under fire for two sweetheart mortgages he received from Countrywide in 2003 under the "Friends of Angelo" program (Angelo Mozilo is the former CEO of Countrywide).

The Quinnipiac University poll puts Dodd’s approval rating at 41 percent with a 48 percent disapproval rating marking his worst approval rating in the history of the Quinnipiac poll.   By a 54-24 margin, voters surveyed say they aren’t satisfied with Dodd’s explanation of the loans and 51 percent of say they "probably won’t" or "definitely won’t" vote for him.  These terrible numbers come after a steady drumbeat of critical editorials in Connecticut newspapers.

"These new poll numbers indicate that the voters of Connecticut are beginning to take note of Senator Dodd’s questionable behavior, and the results aren’t pretty," says National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Brian Walsh.

Team Dodd knows its got a potentially tough battle on its hands.  However, no top-tier Republican challenger has yet emerged.  Former Rep. Rob Simmons is one of the folks the NRSC has been trying to recruit.  Feelers have also been put out to recently defeated Rep. Chris Shays (R-CT), but political observers in the Nutmeg State don’t expect Shays to take the plunge.

Despite the extraordinarily popular Republican Gov. Jodi Rell, Connecticut, like many Northeastern states, has become solidly Democratic territory in recent years which bodes well for Sen. Dodd.  For example, Fairfield County — Connecticut’s most populous — delivered an 18 point victory to Barack Obama in November compared to John Kerry’s four point margin of victory in the county four years earlier.  Sen. Obama beat Sen. McCain statewide by 23 points.

Also, the Quinnipiac poll was in the field while all the Countrywide stuff was coming back into the spotlight as Sen. Dodd announced his plans to refinance his mortgages.  The public and private research in Connecticut makes clear that any hint of hiding something or not coming completely clean on the mortgage stuff could be ruinous for Dodd in the current environment.

Countrywide revealed the "Friends of Angelo" program last summer and estimated Dodd saved $70,000 by refinancing two mortgages valued at $780,000.  Dodd was given interest rates of 4.5 and 4.25 percent.  At first Dodd denied getting any preferential treatment and promised a full accounting of the loans.  Last week, he announced he is refinancing the loans again, this time at market rates and with a different lender.  He showed the loan paperwork to a group of reporters in Connecticut, but refused to allow anybody to copy the papers or take them out of the room.

Connecticut is home to a lot of people at the center of the crisis in the financial markets.  Part of the Dodd game plan will be to show Connecticut voters back home that he is a central player and at the heart of every major issue being debated in Washington.  (Note his introduction today of Treasury Secretary Geithner for the TARP II rollout.)  Due to his seniority on the Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee, he will also be a player on President Obama’s healthcare reform efforts and plans to bring that debate home as he travels across the state this spring.

Dodd, the son of Senator, has been a fixture of Connecticut politics since 1974.  In each of his last two Senate races, he beat his Republican opponent by a 2 to 1 margin and he has never had a margin of victory less than 10 points.  Democrats concede that Sen. Dodd hasn’t had a tough reelection fight before, but that during the 2007-8 presidential cycle he got to develop some political muscles that he hadn’t been utilizing of late — fundraising, debating, etc. . . (Clearly his effort didn’t amount to much success.)

All of that said, these are terrible poll numbers for the incumbent and he and his team are planning for what could be a very tough cycle.

"When the time comes, Senator Dodd will be ready with a vigorous, well-funded re-election campaign. Now is the time for leadership and that is why Senator Dodd is focused on helping Connecticut families get out of this economic crisis and hardship," says Dodd spokesman Bryan DeAngelis.