Confidence to the Rescue? Don’t Hold Your Breath.
EmailWith unemployment soaring to 8.1 percent in today’s Labor Department report, it's fair to wonder when consumer confidence finally will lead the economy to recovery.
The answer: Maybe never.
Not that the economy won't recover; just that confidence may well not lead it. That was the experience in the last deep recession in 1990-1991: Confidence in current economic conditions, as measured in the ongoing ABC News Consumer Comfort Index, didn’t regain its pre-recession level until late 1994, more than three and a half years after that recession technically ended.
There’s good reason, much of it detailed in our poll last week on the contours and causes of economic anxiety. It demonstrates that economic confidence isn’t merely an attitude, but rather a reflection of reality – specifically the reality of job losses, pay cuts and the loss of investment savings. People who have experienced these (or who've had friends or family members get the chop) are far more likely to lack confidence.
A regression analysis supports that conclusion. Being hurt financially in this recession, suffering a job loss or pay cut in the household, or, if not, having a family member or friend sustain a job loss or pay cut, all are significant, independent predictors of economic anxiety, measured both by financial insecurity and by cutting back on personal spending. Further, in a paper I co-authored back in 2003, we found that unemployment is one of the single biggest correlates of consumer confidence.
That is logical – if you’ve gotten hammered, you’ve pulled in your horns. But the fact that today’s lack of confidence is rooted in actual experience makes it danged hard to talk it away. A guy with appendicitis doesn’t need a shrink; he needs a surgeon.
President Obama's been trying a little of both. On one hand he talked up stocks earlier this week, saying their valuations are starting to look good – the jawboning approach. On the other, he said he expects confidence to recover only slowly, as his stimulus package produces job growth.
Slowly could turn out to be a bit of an understatement, given the experience of 1990-91. ABC's consumer index, figured on a scale of +100 to -100, was -14 in June 1990, just before the recession began. It dived to -31 by March 1991, when the recession technically ended. But it kept worsening, bottoming out at -50 in February 1992. Its recovery was so slow that it regained and held its pre-recession level only in December 1994, four and a half years after the recession began, and three and three-quarter years after it officially ended.
That was too late for George H.W. Bush. In 1992 he declared the recession over, and in a narrow sense (rising GDP, and whatever else the Business Cycle Dating Committee uses in its alchemy) he was right. (Back story here.) But it was not over in a way that was apparent to ordinary Americans, in terms of job security, advancement opportunities, rising incomes, secure savings and the like – a reality that cost Bush re-election. Consumer confidence recovered not when the president said it should, but only when Americans felt economic improvement in their daily lives.
Today our consumer index is -49, well within sight of the record low in 23 years of weekly polls it hit Jan. 25. As covered in our latest CCI report, 95 percent of Americans say the economy’s in bad shape (it’s been more than 90 percent for a record 17 weeks), 76 percent call it a bad time to buy things (it’s been more than two-thirds for 68 weeks, second only to a stretch from 1990-93), and 52 percent say their personal finances are hurting (half or more for 32 weeks, surpassed only by a 40-week run in 1992-93).
There has been some look-ahead improvement – the number who say the economy’s “getting worse” has moderated to 58 percent, after spiking to 82 percent in October. Still that’s a lot of pessimism, and a mere 8 percent say the economy is getting any better.
Expectations are the consumer metric to watch most closely; they tend to anticipate the end of recessions better than ratings of current economic conditions. But whatever the measurement you use, with current views as grim as they are, informed by data such as today’s jobs report, a recovery in confidence will take more than talk. It’ll take progress, and from all appearances, that’ll take time.
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Well according to the GOP government should not be involved, just sit back and watch everything collapse. Somehow that is going to relieve all the tension, and worry that the public feels, and when they find that companies are no longer laying off, then we will begin to spend.
Oh I can feel the confidence growing allready.
Posted by: Thinking | March 6, 2009, 9:23 am 9:23 am
GOP has commons sense, you cannot lower unemployment by adding more govt. employees, period. pretty soon, it will be one taxpayer to one govt. employee. The stimulus makes no sense, the Omnibus is nothing but pork, and Obama plays the violin while the US burns…..we need more than maybe, and stay the course. I may not make 40K a year, but I am smart enough to buy a house I could afford, keep myself employed with healh insurance, and actually pay my taxes. Maybe if all the dems who owe taxes would pay up our national debt would be lower? That’s a change I can believe in.
Posted by: USdoomed | March 6, 2009, 9:40 am 9:40 am
Hey, it’s change “we” can believe in.
It’s the new era of accountability. Somebody else’s, of course, not Obammy’s.
Heh.
Posted by: Mr. Incredible | March 6, 2009, 9:41 am 9:41 am
How does the government expect confidence to grow when:
1. None of the people that perpetrated this mess are being held accountable, i.e. arrested and jailed?
2. The government keeps filling the these very same pockets and wants to keep doing so?
Posted by: Ted Johnson | March 6, 2009, 9:47 am 9:47 am
==Well according to the GOP government should not be involved, just sit back and watch everything collapse.==
The majority in Congress, which holds the purse strings, is Dem. The man who signs the bills is in theWhite House and he is Dem. The Dems are in control, and they said everything will change on 20 January. Everything changed, all right, but not the way Libs expected.
So, if anybody is sitting back and watching things go to c ra p, it’s the Dems who have the power to do something and who have chosen to go Socialist, and THAT isn’t working.
Posted by: Mr. Incredible | March 6, 2009, 9:54 am 9:54 am
==None of the people that perpetrated this mess are being held accountable…==
In fact, Libs deny that the ones who are responsible are NOT responsible.
Remember the mid-nineties when Barney Frank and Christopher Dodd and Bill Clinton said that everybody should be in the position to have a house?
Remember that they rejected regulation of the mortgage-lending industry?
Remember, then, how mortgage lenders immediately offered subprime loans to people who were so stupid that they didn’t think that, later, they might not be able to afford the ballooning payments?
Remember ’03, when Senator McCain offered a bill to regulate mortgage lenders and Barney Frank said that mortage lenders are all ok and need no regulation?
Remember ’03-’04, when President Bush warned of the crisis we are in now?
Republicans WANTED regulation. Dems REJECTED regulation. YOU do the math.
Posted by: Mr. Incredible | March 6, 2009, 10:00 am 10:00 am
Libs deny that the ones who are responsible are NOT responsible.—> Libs deny that the ones who are responsible are responsible.
Posted by: Mr. Incredible | March 6, 2009, 10:02 am 10:02 am
There’s only so much optimism in Obama’s ability can do. Results will be necessary for a true economic turnaround.
Posted by: matt | March 6, 2009, 10:02 am 10:02 am
If you want to understand how we got here read Meltdown by Thomas Woods, he nails it. Then ask yourself why the corporate media won’t report about it…
Posted by: hmn... | March 6, 2009, 10:06 am 10:06 am
Unemployment rate at 8.1 not BAD?? Who are you kidding. Want the economy to move faster to recovery. Get the people (8.1) unemployed back to work and we are off to a great start.
I am having trouble with the 8.1 unemployed! Is this the number collecting unemployment now? What about the people who’s unemployment ran out, are they counted?
Posted by: Kathy | March 6, 2009, 10:07 am 10:07 am
==There’s only so much optimism in Obama’s ability can do. Results will be necessary for a true economic turnaround. ==
However, with sooooo much optimism going into the Obammy Admin and how giddy his supporters were after the January 20 immaculation, you’d think that it would carry the day. After all, outlook is very important to the markets, for instance. Consumer confidence is supposted to be based on, well, confidence. None of this has happened the way we were told it would happen. Neither the markets, nor consumers, are confident, and, even though some elements of the economy lag by eighteen months, investor and consumer confidence aren’t among them; they are day-to-day, minute-by-minute, and their being in the tank is part of the Obammy economy.
Posted by: Mr. Incredible | March 6, 2009, 10:08 am 10:08 am
Well according to the GOP government should not be involved, just sit back and watch everything collapse.
The GOP offered up an alternative plan to the “stimulator”. Democrats rejected it. So when you say they just want to sit back and watch it, your LYING!
Posted by: Mike_C | March 6, 2009, 10:10 am 10:10 am
Adding more government jobs sounds nice, but is it?
As someone pointed out above, we could be at a 1:1 ratio. What would that really solve? Nothing. It takes a private sector taxpayer to pay the wages of a government employee. Even if that government employee pays taxes, that doesn’t count. So they give back a fraction of their taxpayer income, big whoop.
Posted by: John thinking it throughh | March 6, 2009, 10:11 am 10:11 am
==If you want to understand how we got here …==
We got here cuz-a foreclosures; people had and have houses whose mortgage they cannot afford. Banks don’t get their money. They cannot lend money to businesses for payroll and other things they need. They lay off. Those people don’t buy and don’t pay. Other businesses don’t get their money. They lay off and don’t buy, and so on.
This is the result of the lack of regulation of the mortgage-lending industry.
In the mid-90s, the Dems — the likes of Barney Fran, Christopher Dodd and Bill Clinton — rejected regulation of the mortgage-lending industry; they said that eveybody should be able to afford a house, and mortgage lenders followed that signal by offering people subprime loans they wouldn’t be able to afford laters, as we find out.
Republicans wanted regulation of mortgage lenders.
Senator McCain drafted mortgage-lender legislation in ’03. Frank and the Dems rejected that, saying that the mortgage-lending industry is solvent and healthy.
President Bush, in ’03-’04, warned of the crisis we’re in now, and, STILL, Dems won’t admit they did anything wrong.
Remember that Republicans WANTED regulation. Dems REJECTED regulation.
Posted by: Mr. Incredible | March 6, 2009, 10:17 am 10:17 am
Maybe confidence would be higher if we didn’t have one political party constantly pushing corporate welfare, whining about “socialism” if a single American tax dollar is used for Americans in America (instead of, apparently, corporate contracts for overseas adventures) and was capable of taking any responsibility for any mistakes made when it held power.
Somehow the GOP believes that if they gnash and whine and cry and scream and bully enough, the American people will put them back into the driver’s seat. But at this point, the only thing I think Americans will feel if the current Administration fails is that it is time to permanently dump both political parties and their arrogant claim to entitlement.
Posted by: kevinbgoode | March 6, 2009, 10:19 am 10:19 am
We have an idiot at the wheel. I have always said GW Bush got a bad rap. This mess that we are in now just goes to show you how well he was able to hold things together.
Posted by: Jim | March 6, 2009, 10:19 am 10:19 am
==The GOP offered up an alternative plan to the “stimulator”. Democrats rejected it.==
This is ALSO true.
Dems want this country to fail. THAT’s the only explanation.
Posted by: Mr. Incredible | March 6, 2009, 10:19 am 10:19 am
Wow the blame Clinton card has already been played, and clearly the Republican control of government for the past 8 years (including 6 of having all branches of government in control followed by two years setting new records for filibusters protecting their status quo) NEVER HAPPENED.
The Grand Ol Republican Party: The Buck Stops Over There. With a Democrat. Probably Clinton.
Posted by: jhw539 | March 6, 2009, 10:20 am 10:20 am
John Thinking it Through:” It takes a private sector taxpayer to pay the wages of a government employee. Even if that government employee pays taxes, that doesn’t count.”
You have me convinced. We should fire them all – get rid of the useless policemen and the university professors who teach students (including foriegn students who pay high out-of-state tuition taking a bite out of our trade deficit). The government never produces anything of value, they just fund pork-barrel projects like inventing and laying the backbone of the internet, or Hoover Dam, or useless junk like that.
Posted by: jhw539 | March 6, 2009, 10:24 am 10:24 am
==Somehow the GOP believes that if they gnash and whine and cry and scream and bully enough, the American people will put them back into the driver’s seat.–
“Gnash and whine and cry and scream and bully” won’t do it. Voters’ realization of their mistake last year will put Republicans back into the driver’s seat.
==But at this point, the only thing I think Americans will feel if the current Administration fails is that it is time to permanently dump both political parties and their arrogant claim to entitlement. ==
Libs like to resort to a “scortched Earth” solution: They understand that they are wrong but won’t admit it, and, so, they say BOTH parties are to blame.
No, the fact is that the Dems’ rejecting regulation of the mortgage-lending industry is what started all this. Republicans WANTED regulation. THIS is what we’ll remember in ’10 and ’12.
Posted by: Mr. Incredible | March 6, 2009, 10:24 am 10:24 am
I think Mr. Incredible is a supreme example of deflecting responsibility. The inability of an ideologue to assume any accountability for failure and inaction is the primary reason why his political party of choice rates so low in public opinion polls and in voter confidence.
Unfortunately, Republicans will continue to search for creative ways to rewrite history rather than accept any responsibility. And in following their ideological path of refusing any accountability, they will continue their slide into irrelevance. Of course, their corporate media will continue to parrot their talking points, but their credibility continues to slide as well – mostly because they seem to recognize about 14 million hardcore rightwing extremists as the American public, and the other 290 million of us don’t exist.
Posted by: kevinbgoode | March 6, 2009, 10:25 am 10:25 am
==Wow the blame Clinton card has already been played, and clearly the Republican control of government for the past 8 years (including 6 of having all branches of government in control followed by two years setting new records for filibusters protecting their status quo) NEVER HAPPENED.
The Grand Ol Republican Party: The Buck Stops Over There. With a Democrat. Probably Clinton. ==
REMEMBER: Clinton is among the Dems who rejected regulation of the mortgage-lending industry in the mid-90s. THAT’s what led to the subprine-foreclosure mess we see today, and it’s what leads to other financial problems cuz businesses aren’t getting their money to lend to others.
REMEMBER: Republicans WANTED regulation, and offered it again in ’03, and the DEms REJECTED it again. Barney Frank said that the mortgage-lending industry and healthy and solvent, all while he was getting political contributions from Fannie and Freddie.
Posted by: Mr. Incredible | March 6, 2009, 10:29 am 10:29 am
Some stupid Americans expect things to get better overnight..the man just got into office and is trying his best to do whatever it takes to turn things around..All you Republican airheads who are critizing have no alternative plan..but just criticize and criticize..Like Rush the comedian Limbaugh..just criticize without giving a solution to the problem..Leave Obama alone so he can do what he was elected to do. Republicans don’t want to take responsibility for the last eight but they want to crucify Obama for the the last five weeks..
Posted by: Stanley | March 6, 2009, 10:30 am 10:30 am
ABC correctly reported the market has already factored in today’s unemployment numbers. The market ALWAYS factors.
47% of us think the market (as a measure of the health of the engines that power our economy) has been factoring in BO’s income redistribution plans for the last year. 53% (ABC included?) think the market does not factor in BO’s plans to punish success. One question. Do you think BO’s misery index numbers will equal Carter’s? Looks like they may exceed the Bush numbers.
Posted by: Richard Nelson | March 6, 2009, 10:33 am 10:33 am
==I think Mr. Incredible is a supreme example of deflecting responsibility.==
Of course you do. You wanna deny history.
Just answer this: Who rejected regulation of the mortgage-lending industry and who WANTED regulation of it?
== The inability of an ideologue to assume any accountability for failure and inaction is the primary reason why his political party of choice rates so low in public opinion polls and in voter confidence.==
No, it isn’t. The history of it says that the Dems REJECTED regulation of the mortgage-lending industry which led to foreclosures cus people couldn’t pay up, and, so, businesses didn’t get loans for payroll and other business expenses, and, so, they laid off which led people not to spend, and so on.
==Unfortunately, Republicans will continue to search for creative ways to rewrite history rather than accept any responsibility.==
Republicans WANTED regulation of the mortgage-lending industry. The Dems REJECTED it, and regulation would have precluded mortgage lenders from offering subprime loans to those who would find, later, that they couldn’t afford the ballooning payments.
== And in following their ideological path of refusing any accountability…==
They are accepting responsibility for OFFERING regulation of the mortgage-lending industry. Dems refuse to accept responbility for REJECTING regulation of the mortgage-lending industry.
Posted by: Mr. Incredible | March 6, 2009, 10:35 am 10:35 am
I think Mr. Incredible believes if Republicans merely repeat a new mantra often enough, it will become true. It’s a sort of “there’s-no-place-like-home” philosophy, where the party fantasizes that the American people will magically think of the GOP as heroic – even if they have a horrendously low approval rating among the public.
They can’t quite even fathom why they have that low approval rating, except resort to their usual blame game – the “liberal” media (which seems to disproportionately parrot GOP talking points for a small audience of true believers) while ignoring the rest of the country.
If only the stimulus package had been earmarked for Iraq, the GOP would have jumped right on the bandwagon with glorious talking points about how wise an investment losing billions in the desert was for the American taxpayer. They can’t even claim to be conservatives at this point – it’s more about pitiful self-delusion and grief over losing the one thing they hold most dear – power. And so they cling to every tantrum from a radio entertainer. . .
Posted by: kevinbgoode | March 6, 2009, 10:36 am 10:36 am
==Some stupid Americans expect things to get better overnight..==
The markets and consumer confidence are a minute-by-minute events. They are measures of confidence and optimism. As of the election, confidence and optimism should have skyrocketed. They haven’t.
So, things haven’t gotten better cuz the people with the brains about money have no confidence in the Obammy policies. They don’t like Socialism.
Posted by: Mr. Incredible | March 6, 2009, 10:39 am 10:39 am
Have to understand that govement don’t have migic that over night all problem will sloved which left by before, and I am sure they try to flat the economi so then later they will purchse all stock of cepital market by the money they park in China and other county since they rual the USA in last 8year.
In fact they play with comman people of US.
Posted by: Swetu Patel | March 6, 2009, 10:44 am 10:44 am
==I think Mr. Incredible believes if Republicans merely repeat a new mantra often enough, it will become true.==
No, not at all. I merely report history.
==They can’t quite even fathom why they have that low approval rating…==
It’s just history that damns Dems.
==You airhead Republicans want eight years of doo doo and vomit created by your president Bush to be cleaned up by Obama in five weeks.==
Plenty of opportunity for Obammy to have inspired optimism and confidence in his financial policies. It hasn’t worked.
It’s not about a so-called “mess” of President Bush. It’s about current cnfidence and optimism which is day-to-day, minute-by-minute, and has nothing to do with Bush.
==Is it my imagination or are there some crack heads on this blog?==
Yes, there are poenty of Libs here who deny history.
Posted by: Mr. Incredible | March 6, 2009, 10:45 am 10:45 am
I am an optimistic American and I believe that the economy will kick back. Obama said that it will get worse before it gets better and we are experiencing the worse now…The Republicans on this blog are trying to spread doom and gloom and blame on Obama..while their man GWB who created this mess is enjoying his millions in dallas! This world is so unfair..you and your minions mess up the country and now now you are free to enjoy your millions while most of America suffer unemployment, and other problems created by you GWB and now your have bloggers on this site who are our supporters and are bashing Obama unfairly. God will have to address this disparity one day.
Posted by: Stanley | March 6, 2009, 10:46 am 10:46 am
Just answer this:
Who — Dems, or Republicans? — REJECTED regulation of the mortgage-lending industry, and who — Dems, or Republicans? — WANTED regulation of it?
Posted by: Mr. Incredible | March 6, 2009, 10:48 am 10:48 am
==I am an optimistic American…==
Most consumers and inestors don’t agree with you, and THEY know more about than you do.
== Obama said that it will get worse before it gets better and we are experiencing the worse now.==
The stock market and consumer confidence don’t predict, rather react on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day basis. They don’t like Obammy’s policies, and they aren’t gonna like them any better tomorrow, next week nor next month, nor year.
==The Republican ‘crack heads’ on this blog are trying to spread doom and gloom and blame on Obama…==
It’s HIS policies that are spreading gloom and doom.
==..while their man GWB who created this mess…==
Not true. GWB wanred of this mess coming in ’03-’04, after Barney Frank said that the mortgage-lending industry needs no regulation, that it is healthy and solvent, all while he and Christopher Dodd were taking campaign contraibutions from Freddie and Fannie.
Just answer this:
Who — Dems, or Republicans? — REJECTED regulation of the mortgage-lending industry, and who — Dems, or Republicans? — WANTED regulation of it?
Posted by: Mr. Incredible | March 6, 2009, 10:54 am 10:54 am
And once again, Mr. Incredible refuses to address why Americans have no such confidence in his party, despite all of his glorious claims that only radical “conservatives” have the answers to America’s ills. Why, if only we had continued to elect radical “conservatives” who could have saved America by ignoring the economy beyond cutting more taxes for the rich, handing more hundreds of billions for foreign nationbuilding adventures, and deflecting national attention from the exploding national debt to more important government duties – like sticking its noses into the bedrooms of Americans or pushing for womb control over 52% of the population, or holding a cross and a flag while praying away their own sins (before repeating them again). . .
There must be some reason why the Republican Party now appears to be led by a tantrum-throwing radio entertainer.
Posted by: kevinbgoode | March 6, 2009, 10:56 am 10:56 am
==And once again, Mr. Incredible refuses to address why Americans have no such confidence in his party, despite all of his glorious claims that only radical “conservatives” have the answers to America’s ills.==
I have pointed to history:
Dems REJECTED regulation of the mortgage-lending industry. Republicans WANTED regulation.
It is the mortgage-lending industry, supplying subprime loads to people who could not afford them later that has led to the other problems we face.
== Why, if only we had continued to elect radical “conservatives” who could have saved America by ignoring the economy beyond cutting more taxes for the rich…==
What other way do you insire investment? It’s the rich who put their money at risk who supply jobs.
==There must be some reason why the Republican Party now appears to be led by a tantrum-throwing radio entertainer. ==
Entertainer, or no, he’s right on target.
Posted by: Mr. Incredible | March 6, 2009, 11:01 am 11:01 am
==Mr. Incredible refuses to address why Americans have no such confidence in his party…==
Irrelevant. If they investigate history, they will find that Dems REJECTED regulation of the mortgage-lending industry. It is this REJECTION that lead to the other problems in the financial sectors. Republicans WANTED regulation of the mortgage-lending industry.
==… despite all of his glorious claims that only adical “conservatives” have the answers to America’s ills.==
I didn’t address anything about Conservatives having the answers to America’s ills. I addressed only the history, the reason for the current crisis. It started with Dems’ REJECTION of regulation of the mortgage-lending industry. After Republicans’ attempts to regulate the mortgage-lending industry in the 90s, mortgage lenders began offering people subprime mortgages. This is what started it all.
Posted by: Mr. Incredible | March 6, 2009, 11:08 am 11:08 am
==…Mr. Incredible refuses to address why Americans have no such confidence in his party…==
People vote with their pocketbooks and wallets. So far, the vote is against Obammy and his policies.
Posted by: Mr. Incredible | March 6, 2009, 11:12 am 11:12 am
I think Americans would feel an immediate spurt of confidence if the first of the Wall Street criminals were indicted. We could choose from among many, but Mr. Fuld of Lehman Brothers would be a good start.
Posted by: Debbieqd | March 6, 2009, 11:18 am 11:18 am
Remember several years ago, the Republic administration and congress have pushed through the Medicare part D for prescription , which spends many billions dollars per years but only benefit part of seniors with limited coverage. Now its the turn for Dem. administration and Congress , they are trying to push through this mortgage rescue program using 75 billion dollars, which benefits only part of the people facing foreclosure. Moreover, it has a band-aid effect to delay the process, rather than solving the root cause of the enormous mortgage mess.
Posted by: austin | March 6, 2009, 11:23 am 11:23 am
==I think Americans would feel an immediate spurt of confidence if the first of the Wall Street criminals were indicted.==
So, YOU believe that I would go out and spend more money if people were indicted, it’s THAT it? Is THAT the basis of consumer confidence, whether somebody is indicted? Sorry, but you don’t have a clue about the economy.
== We could choose from among many, but Mr. Fuld of Lehman Brothers would be a good start.==
So, to YOU, the reason investors are taking their money out of the market and sending the stock market into a tailspin is because Mr. Fuld hasn’t been indicted. Unbelievable.
And you haven’t even touched upon the people who REJECTED regulation of the mortgage-lending industry in the mid-90s, and who REJECTED it again in ’03.
Posted by: Mr. Incredible | March 6, 2009, 11:29 am 11:29 am
==I think Americans would feel an immediate spurt of confidence if the first of the Wall Street criminals were indicted.==
So, too YOU, I would have more confidence in Obammy’s policies if only I could see at least one indictment. Well, the one thing has nothing to do with the other.
Posted by: Mr. Incredible | March 6, 2009, 11:33 am 11:33 am
So, too YOU —-> to YOU
Posted by: Mr. Incredible | March 6, 2009, 11:33 am 11:33 am
==Remember several years ago, the Republic administration and congress have pushed through the Medicare part D for prescription …==
So, we’re supposed to remember this but not the mid-90s and, again, in 2003, when the Dems, through Barney Frank, REJECTED regulation of the mortgage-lending industry, huh, when Barney Frank said that the mortgage-lending industry is healthy and solvent and needs no regulation.
Posted by: Mr. Incredible | March 6, 2009, 11:36 am 11:36 am
It’s funny and, at once, interesting that no Libs wanna take on the question:
Who — Dems, or Republicans? — REJECTED regulation of the mortgage-lending industry, and who — Dems, or Republicans? — WANTED regulation of it?
Libs know the answer but wanna avoid it at all cost.
Posted by: Mr. Incredible | March 6, 2009, 11:44 am 11:44 am
==I am an optimistic American…==
And you were optimistic in 2000, too, huh.
==… and I believe that the economy will kick back.==
It’s kickin’ back now, but not the way you indicate you wish it would.
== Obama said that it will get worse before it gets better…==
George Bush said, during his term, that it would get worse before it gets better. So, you believed him, too, didn’t you.
==… and we are experiencing the worse now…==
We, however, were told that the last eight years are the worst. So, which is it?
Posted by: Mr. Incredible | March 6, 2009, 11:59 am 11:59 am
Is THIS what Obammy voters voted for? It must be cuz, according to the polls, his approval numbers are pretty much up there. So, why is everything tanking? Do Obammy voters like what’s happening? If you’re a Socialist, you gotta be happy.
Posted by: Mr. Incredible | March 6, 2009, 12:10 pm 12:10 pm
Obama needs to cut all this talk about health care, green energy, etc., etc. The citizens of this country don’t care about those things when they are worried about feeding their families. We elected you to lead this country Mr. Obama. How about staying focused on this economy and lead us out of this recession. By continuing to bring up these other pet projects of yours, it tends to trivialize what the average person in this nation is facing right now. You have a job for the next 4 years………many Americans do not.
Posted by: Woody | March 6, 2009, 12:31 pm 12:31 pm
==Obama needs to cut all this talk about health care, green energy, etc., etc. The citizens of this country don’t care about those things when they are worried about feeding their families.==
However, the polls — if you believe them — don’t show that. Obammy voters voted for change, and that includes health care, green energy, etc. People were feeding their families during the past eight years. Gee, what happened?
== We elected you to lead this country Mr. Obama.==
Yes, you did, and he’s leading this country down the tubes. How do you feel now? Not very happy, I’ll bet. We told you this would happen. You’re part of the cause of this mess because you didn’t listen. Now, you suffer with the rest of us. That is, until 2010 and 2012.
== How about staying focused on this economy and lead us out of this recession.==
Never gonna happen with his policies.
== By continuing to bring up these other pet projects of yours, it tends to trivialize what the average person in this nation is facing right now.==
You voted for the entire agenda, not just part. You knew what you were getting when you voted for this guy. We told you the problems with him, and you wouldn’t listen. So, you’re part of the problem cuz, by voting for him, you empower the problems to come into existence.
== You [Obammy] have a job for the next 4 years………many Americans do not.==
However, he says that his Socialist health care and energy policies will create jobs. Of course, they will drain the economy and force businesses to lay off and/or go out of business altogether, and we’ll be right back there again. However, as I say, YOU voted for him. You did. We didn’t.
Posted by: Mr. Incredible | March 6, 2009, 12:45 pm 12:45 pm
So, if anybody is sitting back and watching things go to c ra p, it’s the Dems who have the power to do something and who have chosen to go Socialist, and THAT isn’t working.
****************************************
BS
The GOP have been nothing but obstruct progress. With the sixty vote rule nothing can get done.
As far as Socialism that the GOP screams about. How about they give up there Pension and health care for life? Dam Socialists.
Posted by: Thinking | March 6, 2009, 1:00 pm 1:00 pm
More Debt = More Confidence
Posted by: Geo | March 6, 2009, 1:08 pm 1:08 pm
Way to go Mr. Incredible !! I am so glad that you pointed out the history of “everyone should own a house” no matter if they can afford or they are capable of managing their finance which is the seed planted way back for this mortgage meltdown and to our economy meltdown. I think what America really needs is the “moral and conscience” overhaul which starts in this White house and those democrats(and 3 republicans)in the capital hill.
Posted by: concern asian texan | March 6, 2009, 1:27 pm 1:27 pm
How can we have confidence if Obama’s nominees for cabinets, 9 out of 10 are not paying their taxes, it’s not just the money, it shows their moral, no wonder the Democrats are not for tax cuts, because they just don’t pay it.
Posted by: concern asian texan | March 6, 2009, 1:31 pm 1:31 pm
==Way to go Mr. Incredible !! I am so glad that you pointed out the history of “everyone should own a house” no matter if they can afford or they are capable of managing their finance which is the seed planted way back for this mortgage meltdown and to our economy meltdown.==
It had to be done, and it has to continue to be done. It’s just history that the Dems REJECTED mortgage-lender regulation and that Republicans WANTED regulation, even as late as ’03, when McCain introduced legislation that would’ve regulated them. It was then that Barney Frank said that the mortgage-lending industry is healthy, solvent and needs no regulation. It was payback to the industry that gaved so much to Dems.
==I think what America really needs is the “moral and conscience” overhaul…==
I’m trying to DO that overhaul.
==… which starts in this White house and those democrats(and 3 republicans)in the capital hill.==
Those three Republican — Snowe, Collins and Specter — have been a thorn in our sides long enough. They are what bipartisanship gets you. I want partisanship, and let the chips fall where they may. I vote for my people to take a stand and make it stick.
Posted by: Mr. Incredible | March 6, 2009, 2:49 pm 2:49 pm
==The GOP have been nothing but obstruct progress.==
Yes, the GOP tried to get regulation of the mortgage-lending industry, and the Dems rejected regulation. The GOP just stood in the way, trying to stop those subprime loans from going out and letting people have houses at low rates that ballooned into foreclosures.
== With the sixty vote rule nothing can get done.==
You remember when the Dems tried all that, huh.
==As far as Socialism that the GOP screams about. How about they give up there [sic] Pension and health care for life?==
Why? That’s the agreement they signed onto when they came aboard. It’s all about a contract.
Posted by: Mr. Incredible | March 6, 2009, 2:53 pm 2:53 pm
It is pretty tough to get confidence back when the unemployment rate is so high. Even people with jobs are looking over their shoulder and cutting back. Jobs and less foreclosures are the answer but getting to that point will take all of us pulling together. Bi-partisan politics principled ideology are not the vehicles that will get us there.
Posted by: CND FOX | March 6, 2009, 4:34 pm 4:34 pm
Sorry, it has been a long day I meant partisan politiss is not the vehicle. We can all only hope for bi-partisanship to emerge.
Posted by: CND FOX | March 6, 2009, 4:37 pm 4:37 pm
==We can all only hope for bi-partisanship to emerge.==
To Libs, “bipartisanship” means their opponents surrender to THEM.
Posted by: Mr. Incredible | March 6, 2009, 5:02 pm 5:02 pm
To Libs, “bipartisanship” means going along with THEIR program.
Posted by: Mr. Incredible | March 6, 2009, 5:03 pm 5:03 pm
Instead of constantly trying to compare himself to Kennedy and FDR and Lincoln, Obama should study President Harry Truman, and he could start with Truman’s famous I’m-taking-the- responsibility quote, “The buck stops here”. Rationalizing away this glut of spending by constantly saying he inherited this mess is getting old, and does not in any way reflect the actions of a leader. The dire economic times require strong leadership and true bipartisan solutions, and all we have is an inexperienced, one term Senator crying “Bush made me do it”. Way to go, America.
Posted by: Babs | March 6, 2009, 6:30 pm 6:30 pm
I’m beginning to sense that Obama may be starting to feel he’s in over his head? Eventually all of this tax money be thrown out there will have some effect. After that it’s inflation. But Obama will have his 4 years in and his pension secure.
Posted by: LongT | March 6, 2009, 6:49 pm 6:49 pm
Thinking? Don’t think so!
The GOP has neither a health care plan or a pension fund.
For 12 years the dems used the 60 vote rule to stop all kinds of reforms(energy, tort, ethics, etc) You’ve got the wrong party in mind. Name 1 thing the GOP stopped with the 60 vote rule.
Posted by: j | March 6, 2009, 6:57 pm 6:57 pm
If confidence did magically go up it would be based on a lie and would be a bad thing in the long term.
The problem is that our economy is built on a house of cards. It’s not sustainable because people for years have been living on more debt than income, due to massive outsourcing, rising costs of food and energy etc.
The game only keeps going as long as people keep buying $500 iphones they can’t afford.
At some point we have to crash hard enough that our income is in relation to what is purchased, which means a lot of hurt for corporate america.
Posted by: accorn | March 8, 2009, 6:09 am 6:09 am
End the H1B visa scam that forces Americans to train their replacements insourced from India for slave wages.
Posted by: Common Sense | March 8, 2009, 8:48 am 8:48 am
If Obama can not fix the economy soon as he promised, he should not take the job. It is too late to blame on other people. “Hope”, “Change”, “Yes, we can.”
Posted by: Kim | March 8, 2009, 12:39 pm 12:39 pm
Maybe if these same republicans who oppose President Obama had become vocal toward their own president, maybe we would not in this mess. We were in a recession since last January and Bush refused to admit it. How come the republicans did not pressure him to do something before we got into this mess? Perhaps, it would not be as bad as it is. To think that Obama could get us out of this in just two short months, is ridiculous. Nothing will be accomplished until party policies are put aside so let’s all be Americans, not Democarats or Republicans and work together to fix what President Obama did not create.
Posted by: talmag | March 9, 2009, 10:58 am 10:58 am
Republicans would rather ax a sinking ship than try to save it just to be able to say (4 years from now) “I Told You So”!
Instead of working together for change, you’ll sit back and flap your jaws about how it won’t work! Has anything worked in the past 8 years?
Talk, Talk, Talk and “fast money” making more – then hiding it off shore. Great ‘Americans’ – Pat yourselves on the back!
Ignorance and Arogance = The Republican Party – So ready and able to let others do the work!
Posted by: Kitchendoc | March 9, 2009, 11:08 am 11:08 am
Kim, get a grip….no one could fix the mess in two months. It did not happen overnight…we were in a recession long before the world was aware of it. We will get out of it and it will be fixed but no one not even a republican can undue what took years to create. President Obama has done more in two short months than many other presidents. He has passed the children’s health care bill, passed the Ledbetter bill to give women like us the right to earn whatever a man does, promised to close quantanomo, promises to raise the pay of our soldiers, working to fix the forclosure problem which came about because the republicans didn’t feel the banks needed any rules regarding the giving out of loans, and today is passing the stem cell bill which was approved by the senate and the house over a year ago.
Posted by: talmag | March 9, 2009, 11:14 am 11:14 am
I for one have absolutley no confidence that this mess can result in anything good. My only hope is that by 2010 some people in this country will realize what a mess of representatives we have and give them the boot! We do not have a leader that instills confidence in those of us who see the situation as is it really is…we didn’t buy into the obamamessiah drivel.
Posted by: ConservativeGal | March 9, 2009, 9:47 pm 9:47 pm
wow get real people you people need some to blame ! here we go blame game ! instead of taking responeablity for your self .did you people forget obama onley has been in office for 9 weeks did done great for someone clean up republician mess
Posted by: andrea | March 9, 2009, 11:42 pm 11:42 pm
==Maybe if these same republicans who oppose President Obama had become vocal toward their own president, maybe we would not in this mess.==
This mess was triggered by the subprime mortgages offered by the mortgage-lending industry set loose by Democrat rejection of regulation in the nineties and, again, in ’03-’04. President Bush warned, in ’03-’04, of this mess approaching. Republicans WANTED regulation of the mortgage-lending industry.
Posted by: Mr. Incredible | March 10, 2009, 9:44 am 9:44 am
We can blame this or that on different parties. The truth is, what is done, is done. Now the question remains is how is it going to be fixed? what is the next step and when to expect it? It has been going on long enough that it shouldn’t spark shock now. I have no doubt in my mind that it will take several years for this economical crisis to show even the slightest improvemnt. Rome wasn’t built in a day, and this economy has been suffering for years. It is affecting everyone in every household, families, and emotions. We need to stop the balme game and come up with some valid reasoning, solutions and voice those opinions. It is time we grew out of the arguements of who did this in the first place, get back to reality and find solutions to problems that will see this state of distaster move into and forward in main progress.
Posted by: karol | March 10, 2009, 3:50 pm 3:50 pm
YES WE CAN LIE!!!
Posted by: Joe Average | March 10, 2009, 4:10 pm 4:10 pm
==We can blame this or that on different parties. The truth is, what is done, is done. Now the question remains is how is it going to be fixed?==
Partly true.
We need to know who caused this, and we need to understand this BEFORE the election so that we would not put the wrong people in office. However, we DID put the wrong people in office cuz THEY are the ones who caused this. It’s important now to know just to tie up loose strings.
The subprime mortage-lending program is the cause of all this. the mortgage-lending industry was UNREGULATED.
In the mid-nineties, the DEMOCRATS — Barney Frank, Christopher Dodd and, yes, Bill Clinton — said that everybody should be allowed to own a house. THEY rejected regulatin of the mortgage-lending industry. Republicans wanted regulation.
Then, again, in ’03, McCain offered legislation to regulate the mortgage-lending industry. The Democrats AGAIN rejected it, Barney Frank saying that the mortgage lenders need no regulation, that they are solvent and healthy.
Then, George Bush warned of the crisis that was coming, thta we have now.
So, the key to understanding this is regulation of the mortgage lenders, and who was for it and who rejected it; and, from THAT, we now know that the wrong people are in charge, and THAT’s partly why investors are spooked cuz they know.
Posted by: Mr. Incredible | March 10, 2009, 5:30 pm 5:30 pm
All the comments on this subject,One might get the Idea that Christ is a capitalist. Give unto God that which is Gods, An Government what is there’s.To all the true believers give up your things ,An follow Christ.
Posted by: rmuzingo | March 11, 2009, 11:54 am 11:54 am
==Give unto God that which is Gods, An Government what is there’s [sic].==
The interpretation of that Scripture is that the coin belongs to Caesar cuz his name and image are on it. The spirit of Man belongs to God cuz His Name and Image are on it in virtually the same way the image and name are on the coin.
==To all the true believers give up your things ,An [sic] follow Christ.==
Christ didn’t say that we shouldn’t have things. He is saying that we shouldn’t LOVE things so that they claim us rather than we them. It’s not the money rather the LOVE of money that is the problem.
Posted by: Mr. Incredible | March 11, 2009, 12:24 pm 12:24 pm
Maybe It’s just me, but I don’t see the problem with recovering the $165 Million in AIG bonuses. They are due for another 30 Billion in Bailout. What’s the problem with subtracting 165 Million from that next 30 Billion? Don’t tell me it’s sends the wrong message. It’s our damn money, about the American people start DEMANDING that it’s spent correctly.
Posted by: Richard Waller | March 24, 2009, 10:07 am 10:07 am
==Maybe It’s just me…==
No, it’s you.
==… but I don’t see the problem with recovering the $165 Million in AIG bonuses.==
How? By stealing it from those who got the bonuses legally?
==They are due for another 30 Billion in Bailout. What’s the problem with subtracting 165 Million from that next 30 Billion?==
Sooo, punish them retroactively for making agreements last year. We see.
== Don’t tell me it’s sends the wrong message.==
It sends the wrong message.
== It’s our damn money…==
Which money? The money yet to be sent to AIG? The money they gave as bonuses? Or the money received legally by those who got the bonuses?
The fact is that the money AIG spent on bonuses is NOT our money. The company spent it last year, according to contract. Do contracts mean anything to you?
==… about the American people start DEMANDING that it’s spent correctly.==
Yes, if THAT rule is in place, which it was not last year.
Posted by: Mr. Incredible | March 25, 2009, 8:58 am 8:58 am
I refuse to be diverted by the “Republican” and “Democratic” party.
I hope we’ve all moved past the Partisian and Non-Partisican talking points. It does no one any good. The media needs to do their job and investigate what happened. They need to report on the news. I’m tired of opinion journalism. Why haven’t we heard about the Myrell Lynch scandel? It appears they’ve also received huge bonuses.
Clay
Posted by: Clay | April 2, 2009, 2:53 pm 2:53 pm
From reading this blog, it seems that the Republicans and Democrats on here are busy stating how each other’s opinion is wrong. Meanwhile we are facing more layoffs, tougher times and higher taxes now that we have one party controlling everything and pushing for every social program they couldn’t get for the last 8 years under the fearmongering guise ‘stimulus’! All these problems started decades ago when the government started meddling. Now we’ve got two parties fighting to control a system that should never have been touched and run it their way. It was headed into the ground under Bush and his cronies when he steared it to the right. Now Obama and his cronies are steering it to the left ignoring the downward course. Did it start under Clinton, Reagon or Carter–probably Carter–who cares?! The solution is to fix the economic meddling and put systems in place to prevent it’s re-occurrence. But we won’t do that. We’re still headed down, just spinning to the left now. Confidence? I have NONE. I’m saving my money, and if you understand what’s going on you will too.
Posted by: rob | April 12, 2009, 12:33 am 12:33 am
It seems the government’s promise for mortgage assistance is only meant for a select few. After six weeks of phone calls back and forth with our mortgage company, Countrywide, they have advised us that the only way to refinance to lower our mortgage interest is if Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac own the mortgage. Come to find out, neither holds our mortgage so we don’t qualify. A second program Countrywide has would only increase our monthly mortgage payments. Countrywide is expecting a second “phase” to the refinance program but advised that it would be at the government’s direction and could take quite a while…in the meantime, we could lose our house…
Posted by: Suzanne Shelton | April 21, 2009, 12:18 pm 12:18 pm