Mark Penn: No Edwards Could Have Meant ‘Different Outcome’
EmailABC News’ Kate Snow and Rick Klein report: What if John Edwards hadn’t run for president in 2008?
What if he had followed the hindsight-is-20-20 advice being offered now by his wife and chief strategist, and decided against another run for the White House because of the risk that his extra-marital affair would become public?
ABC News put that question to Mark Penn, who was Hillary Rodham Clinton’s chief pollster and strategist during much of her 2008 campaign.
Penn acknowledged that all of this is unknowable. But he said that if Edwards backers had been up for grabs in Iowa and beyond, Clinton would have had a much better chance at defeating Barack Obama.
“No question in my mind, it would have been a very different race if he hadn’t run,” Penn said. “Most likely it would have been a two-way race and would have released a lot of voters who focused on demographics . . . voters who would later vote for Hillary Clinton.”
Edwards had placed second in the Iowa caucuses in 2004 and was strong there from the start. If he wasn’t a factor, that may have helped Clinton, Penn said.
“If he had come out and dropped out of the race particularly early, I think a lot of voters would have taken a good fresh look at Hillary Clinton,” he said. “Remember they supported Edwards ’cause they thought he was honest and trustworthy. And then they had questions about her being honest and trustworthy. And so if that equation had been reversed, she might well have picked up those votes.”
Clinton placed third in Iowa and then rebounded to win New Hampshire — only to fall to Obama in what turned out to be a far longer primary season than anyone anticipated.
Winning the first two states to vote would have placed any candidate “pretty much on the road and unstoppable,” Penn said.
“If [Edwards] would have dropped out there would have been a real contest for those votes,” he added. “And Obama might have won those votes. The history in the race further out was that Hillary was very successful getting Obama’s voters.
“If [Edwards] had dropped out early or not run at all, she would have had a much greater opportunity to get those voters. And if he dropped out explaining why he dropped out, she would have had an even bigger opportunity because people would have thought they were wrong about Edwards, and maybe they had been wrong about Hilary and might have opened a lot of voters to her.”
“It would have been a different race,” Penn said. “We will never know for sure . . . but it will be the woulda, coulda, shoulda of this race.”
Edwards placed second in Iowa but fizzled in subsequent primaries and caucuses. He dropped out of the race Jan. 30 and endorsed Obama in May — when Obama was considered the prohibitive frontrunner, but before Clinton dropped out of the race.
John Edwards publicly confessed the affair with Hunter in an interview with ABC in August of 2008.
The New York Daily News is reporting that Elizabeth Edwards, in her new book, writes that her husband should not have run for president, given the affair.
Joe Trippi, who was Edwards’ senior political adviser for the 2008 campaign, echoed that response in an e-mail to ABC News Thursday.
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Clinton did nto “fall” to Obama. She was screwed by the Democratic party’s Rules and By-Laws Committee. As the primary season rolled on, Clinton won more and Obama lost more. She won two of the last three primaries. She ended up with more popular votes that Obama. Yes, she could have run a better campaign, but it wasn’t as bad as it’s being made out. Obama could have run a cleaner campaign. Who expected the bullying and intimidation and bussing-in of students in caucuses, including Iowa? And don’t forget that she was hounded by the media, including ABC, right from Iowa to get out.
Of course it would have been different without Edwards, but who can say in what way?
Is Donna Brazile ever going to resign? After all, the primary was decided by superdelegates.
This was an example of how a primary should not work. Unfortunately, as the “winner” is now in charge, nothing will change. There is no hope for democracy in the Democratic party.
Posted by: Keith | May 1, 2009, 12:11 pm 12:11 pm
Keith:”She was screwed by the Democratic party’s Rules and By-Laws Committee. ”
Please, the Clinton Machine wrote the rules before the elections well before Obama entered the race. She had the overwhelming lead in pledged super delegates and full support of the establishment on day one. She lost by the rules fair and square – Obama was a compelling candidate and after the Father-Son Bush Act, the voters were after a change election.
And “hounded” to get out from Iowa? Come back to reality or provide a citation please.
Posted by: jhw539 | May 1, 2009, 1:21 pm 1:21 pm
I can take another Clinton in office but not this pompous and presumptuous Harvard graduate by 2nd Affirmative Action (BO actually didn’t qualify within the Black quota set by Harvard but through the push by Dr. Khalid Al-monsour, a radical muslim). USA could have been in a lot better position if she was the President. If Clinton is crazy, BO is a lot seriously crazier.
Posted by: AsianGOP | May 1, 2009, 1:39 pm 1:39 pm
What ifs? Obama’s team built a media bulldozer using a slick interactive website to attract young energetic voters. ACORN, Factcheck, and the media were in his pocket giving free coverage so he had a huge media advantage from his TV Oprah appearances to newspapers that his opponents did not have. Those who did not support his policies or pointed out his limited experience and track record were repeatedly identifed as ‘racist’, which was the strategy he included in his book. The media was frequently told in response to their questions to ‘read my book’. What if the media had actually demanded responses to real-time questions? What if the Rev Wright and other controversial topics were given coverage earlier before most primaries were run? Or if the coverage was more evenly, fair and unbiased? Edwards being in the race had little to do with the Obama team win. The Obama team clearly easily outmaneuvered his opponents.
Posted by: Jack | May 1, 2009, 2:11 pm 2:11 pm
I was a Clinton supporter during the primary but I want to be honest — Clinton lost because she played the wrong game. Mark Penn didn’t even seem to know that it was not a winner-take-all game. What can you say? I was reluctant to admit it then, but I am happy to say now that Obama proved himself to be a far better strategist.
Posted by: teddymaniac | May 1, 2009, 2:14 pm 2:14 pm
Mark Penn?
That’s a good one… While we’re at it, we should find out what Matt Millen thinks of the Detroit Lions, Milli thinks of Milli Vanilli, and what Judith Miller thinks of Iraq WMD pre-invasion reporting.
The fact that Mark Penn still makes oodles of cash via his high powered PR and consulting firm ought to tell you that recession or no — once you’re a highly paid, being exposed as an idiot will do nothing worse than make you a highly paid idiot.
Posted by: Ha Ha Ha Ha | May 1, 2009, 2:44 pm 2:44 pm
Is speculation news??
Woulda, shoulda, coulda…
Posted by: think-long-term | May 1, 2009, 3:56 pm 3:56 pm
hillary is a criminal she needs a life time in prison not in the white house obama neesds the same for putting criminals in the white house just get the movie hillary uncensored you will see what a low life she really is
Posted by: RAMBOW99 | May 1, 2009, 3:58 pm 3:58 pm
hillary will take all your rights away from you
Posted by: RAMBOW99 | May 1, 2009, 4:00 pm 4:00 pm
Like my granddad said “IF the dog hadn’t stop to poop he would have caught the rabbit”. It’s over, and as much as I like Hillary, Obama won. Hillary was gracious in defeat, put on her big girl panties, and makes us proud as Sec. of State. She’s a terrific gal.
Posted by: Clint | May 1, 2009, 4:34 pm 4:34 pm
Living in Iowa we were able to see all of the candidates quite often. I was an Edwards supporter. Looking back, I feel that I have been robbed of the opportunity to choose who I would now have supported in the caucus. It would have not been Edwards. Obama/Clinton I don’t know which one.
Elizabeth Edwards is an intelligent and genuine person. I feel that she is the victim here. I don’t know why people are so hard on her, but let others such as Hillary Clinton get a pass on a cheating husband. My heart goes out to her.
Posted by: Iowawoman | May 1, 2009, 4:56 pm 4:56 pm
I think Obama is inept and I believe Hillary is inept! So no matter what happened with regard to Edwards, we would have an inept President. And if John McCain had won, we would have had an inept President. We weren’t offered any viable candidates so it came down to a race based on race, basically! Obama had no experience running anything and the best he could do as a Senator was vote ‘present’ – he was a law professor and a Community Organizer and he was the best we could do? He also has a shady background, sealed health and school records and only a COLB. Our Government is really scary! Maybe because they’re all so old and have been around for so long. I hope the next time around more thought is given to who will be put before the voters to be POTUS and that the old cronies are voted out. What happened to term limits?
Posted by: Mary | May 1, 2009, 5:20 pm 5:20 pm
Ok, once again Mark Penn is full of bull. Everyone knows that when Edwrds released his delegates they went to Obama – so why wouldn’t his voters have gone to Obama too? Mark Penn dd nothing to help Hillary win – Edwards or no Edwards and it wouldn’t have made any difference as long as he was running her campaign. Too bad she ended up having to pay the fat, sweaty, zero 6 million dollars and Obama’s donars (I’m one of them) ended up having to contribute to her campaign just last month to help pay off the Mark Penn – the big loser!
Posted by: Kate1149 | May 1, 2009, 5:26 pm 5:26 pm
Oh, and Rick Klein you are usually a better reporter than this – shoulda, woulda, coulda – no story here – don’t print speculation.
Posted by: Kate1149 | May 1, 2009, 5:31 pm 5:31 pm
More like NO PENN would have had a different outcome — STILL A LOSS FOR HILARY! lol
Only, Hilary wouldn’t wind up with a mountain of PENN DEBT!
Posted by: Patriot | May 1, 2009, 8:09 pm 8:09 pm
Some still do not want to give Obama the credit he deserves.
‘No drama Obama’ is cool with that. lol
The worthless PENN helped Hilary to lose!
Not that Penn and Bill Clinton could have helped Clinton win.
They were done in by the wiser visionary, Obama!
Posted by: Patriot | May 1, 2009, 8:17 pm 8:17 pm
Hillary should Of been The President!
DNC Did Her DIRTY!!!!
Obama Did Her DIRTY TOO!
I Still Suspect Obama Is A TROJAN HORSE With A Surprise Agenda!
Posted by: OhioModerate | May 1, 2009, 10:39 pm 10:39 pm
HRC did not lose the demo primary. The Demo Party gave the nomination to an Affirmative Action candi. She was screwed by Pelosi and Reid.
HRC won the most number of votes ever in a primary, more than any person including the boneheaded self-appointed constitution law prof.
Where is Jeffersonian democracy?!
Posted by: two cats | May 1, 2009, 11:30 pm 11:30 pm
Elizabeth Edwards is an intelligent and genuine person. I feel that she is the victim here.
Posted by: Iowawoman | May 1, 2009 4:56:44 PM
======
Victim?! She kept her mouth shut, deceiving everyone, including your precious vote that you cannot take it back. If you assist a criminal to commit a murder, you are a criminal too.
Now that she wants to sell books, she pretends something she is not.
She owes history an apology.
Posted by: fat | May 1, 2009, 11:36 pm 11:36 pm
What if Edwards Had not Run? I have a better question: What if Obama had never been born, who was going to be president? What if Hillary was actually a Spanish national? What if, what if? The folly of theorising…
Posted by: Donald Mavunduse | May 2, 2009, 4:28 am 4:28 am
John Edwards has some charm, but is truly lacking in several areas. He had the Presidency right in the palm of his hand.
ALL he had to do (when he was even running third in the Primary) was hold a press conference and announce “as much as I want to serve as President of this great country, this is a time that my wife needs me. In sickness and in health, she is my life partner and I love her…I truly hope to run again someday”.
In 2012 or 2016 he would have been unbeatable. All he had to do was “the right thing” anyway.
Seriously…as a Raleigh NC native, I am not surprised that he made the wrong choice. I’m not really disappointed either. He’s NOT the man for the job, but really no worse than what we ended up with. In fact…I’d trade.
Posted by: BD | May 2, 2009, 8:28 am 8:28 am
two cats,
you are entitled to your opinion and I am to mine. None of us can know what motivates another person.
I think Hillary will be an outstanding Secretary of State. She seems to be very comfortable in the role and also with President Obama. Great things are ahead for all of us. Wait and see.
Posted by: Iowawoman | May 2, 2009, 10:56 am 10:56 am
I know alot of people that wishes they hadn’t voted for Obama ..So i guess we will have to wait till the next election…
Posted by: Pcc | May 2, 2009, 5:12 pm 5:12 pm
Why not silently plan with your next intellengent moves so you can have your choice as potus in less than 4 years. At this point in time we have a President in office, elected by the people. Pls leave Obama alone for awhile or support him so he can do the job of governing as he is doing with Clinton as Sec of State.
Posted by: pana | May 2, 2009, 6:21 pm 6:21 pm
what if?
What if Hillary had axelrod and obama had penn? More meaningless drivel on abc “news”
Posted by: stevek | May 2, 2009, 7:24 pm 7:24 pm
It’s useless to talk about it now. It hurts me more!
Posted by: catleya | May 2, 2009, 8:40 pm 8:40 pm
He has a secret agenda alright. Has anyone read Revelation recently? He will be charismatic, educated, and he will fool them all. They will be made to believe a LIE! Watch out what you wish for. So glad I didn’t vote him into office, but it will be like Titanic, we’ll all go down with the ship!!!
Posted by: Kristen | May 2, 2009, 10:59 pm 10:59 pm
Hillary was a great candidate, a great american, and a fantastic sec. of state…I worked for her and admire and respect her like no other..she supported Obama long before i was ready to…I voted for him in the election, for the good of the country..and I fully support him now…rearguing the point is ridiculous..and those with big mouths might remember..you still need us to support the presidents plans..on this venue and with our state senators and congressman…so can your stupid remarks about Hillary
Posted by: cowgirl | May 3, 2009, 5:06 pm 5:06 pm
If one Wyoming caucus-goer did not count for as many delegates as 19 Pennsylvania primary voters, maybe she would have won too. I think Texas, Washington State, Nebraska, and the other states that did both primaries and caucuses show that Clinton would have won had all states been primaries instead of caucuses. In Minnesota, for example, she was ahead by 7% right before Super Tuesday but then lost by 35% in the actual caucus results. That’s a 42-point swing in Obama’s favor. Even New Hampshire was only about a 13% swing in Clinton’s favor, and there were many unique reasons for that that didn’t apply to Minnesota and other caucus states. That said, Mark Penn was a lowsy strategist who also contributed significantly to Clinton not winning the nomination. Hopefully, if she runs again in 2016, she will learn from these mistakes, and hopefully more states will convert to fair democratic elections (primaries) instead of let-the-party-activist-decide caucuses. In the meantime, while by no means by first choice, Obama is still a heck of a lot better than a Republican.
Posted by: Clinton Democrat | May 3, 2009, 5:10 pm 5:10 pm
You lost
Get
Over
It
Posted by: Civil Servant Boss | May 4, 2009, 2:29 am 2:29 am
“He will be charismatic, educated, and he will fool them all. ” So THAT’S why Republicans like them uncharismatic and dumber than two planks?
Posted by: Civil Servant Boss | May 4, 2009, 2:30 am 2:30 am
Hey folks! The election is over and Obama is the President! Get over it!
Posted by: Alistair | May 4, 2009, 3:25 am 3:25 am
I am one of few AA man who wanted HRC to win because we really needed a clinton to clean Bush’s mess and now we have Obama I voted from in the general but next time in 2012 he is really going to get down here TN and earn my vote because right now I feel as if he ignoring us “Blue Dog” democrats because we as a nation believe what the media tells us and he used them and Wall St. to get himself elected. Sept 2008 faced with prospect of losing Wall St basically knee capped Mccain after his convention and the rest we know is history. Oh yeah damn Edwards he needs to get away politics and the public and take care of his dying wife.
Posted by: Qt of Chattanooga | May 4, 2009, 5:17 am 5:17 am