Revolution 2009
EmailIn Tehran, Iran, supporters of former prime minister Mir Hossein Mousavi were in the streets chanting “the government lied to the people.”
The election results seemed improbable — 62.6 % for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, 33.75 % to Mousavi, who wrote on his website: “I’m warning that I won’t surrender to this manipulation. The outcome of what we’ve seen from the performance of officials … is nothing but shaking the pillars of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s sacred system and governance of lies and dictatorship.”
Reuters reports last night Iranian police arrested more than 100 reformers.
Writes Laura Secor in the New Yorker: “There can be no question that the June 12, 2009 Iranian presidential election was stolen. Dissident employees of the Interior Ministry, which is under the control of President Ahmadinejad and is responsible for the mechanics of the polling and counting of votes, have reportedly issued an open letter saying as much. Government polls (one conducted by the Revolutionary Guards, the other by the state broadcasting company) that were leaked to the campaigns allegedly showed ten- to twenty-point leads for Mousavi a week before the election; earlier polls had them neck and neck, with Mousavi leading by one per cent, and (Mehdi) Karroubi just behind.”
For more on the dissident employees of the Interior Ministry, check out the National Iranian American Council blog, who note that on Mousavi’s webpage there’s a letter reading “As dedicated employees of the Interior Ministry, with experience in management and supervision of several elections such as the elections of Khamenei, Rafsanjani and Khatami, we announce that we fear the 10th presidential elections were not healthy.”
Writes Gary Sick: “On the basis of what we know so far, here is the sequence of events starting on the afternoon of election day, Friday, June 12.
“Near closing time of the polls, mobile text messaging was turned off nationwide
“Security forces poured out into the streets in large numbers
“The Ministry of Interior (election headquarters) was surrounded by concrete barriers and armed men
“National television began broadcasting pre-recorded messages calling for everyone to unite behind the winner
“The Mousavi campaign was informed officially that they had won the election, which perhaps served to temporarily lull them into complacency
“But then the Ministry of Interior announced a landslide victory for Ahmadinejad
“Unlike previous elections, there was no breakdown of the vote by province, which would have provided a way of judging its credibility
“The voting patterns announced by the government were identical in all parts of the country, an impossibility (also see the comments of Juan Cole at the title link)
“Less than 24 hours later, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamene`i publicly announced his congratulations to the winner, apparently confirming that the process was complete and irrevocable, contrary to constitutional requirements
“Shortly thereafter, all mobile phones, Facebook, and other social networks were blocked, as well as major foreign news sources.
“All of this had the appearance of a well orchestrated strike intended to take its opponents by surprise – the classic definition of a coup. Curiously, this was not a coup of an outside group against the ruling elite; it was a coup of the ruling elite against its own people.”
Juan Cole cites additional evidence that the election was stolen:
“1. It is claimed that Ahmadinejad won the city of Tabriz with 57%. His main opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi, is an Azeri from Azerbaijan province, of which Tabriz is the capital. Mousavi, according to such polls as exist in Iran and widespread anecdotal evidence, did better in cities and is popular in Azerbaijan. Certainly, his rallies there were very well attended. So for an Azeri urban center to go so heavily for Ahmadinejad just makes no sense. In past elections, Azeris voted disproportionately for even minor presidential candidates who hailed from that province.
“2. Ahmadinejad is claimed to have taken Tehran by over 50%. Again, he is not popular in the cities, even, as he claims, in the poor neighborhoods, in part because his policies have produced high inflation and high unemployment. That he should have won Tehran is so unlikely as to raise real questions about these numbers. [Ahmadinejad is widely thought only to have won Tehran in 2005 because the pro-reform groups were discouraged and stayed home rather than voting.)
“3. It is claimed that cleric Mehdi Karoubi, the other reformist candidate, received 320,000 votes, and that he did poorly in Iran’s western provinces, even losing in Luristan. He is a Lur and is popular in the west, including in Kurdistan. Karoubi received 17 percent of the vote in the first round of presidential elections in 2005. While it is possible that his support has substantially declined since then, it is hard to believe that he would get less than one percent of the vote. Moreover, he should have at least done well in the west, which he did not.
“4. Mohsen Rezaie, who polled very badly and seems not to have been at all popular, is alleged to have received 670,000 votes, twice as much as Karoubi.
“5. Ahmadinejad’s numbers were fairly standard across Iran’s provinces. In past elections there have been substantial ethnic and provincial variations.
“6. The Electoral Commission is supposed to wait three days before certifying the results of the election, at which point they are to inform Khamenei of the results, and he signs off on the process. The three-day delay is intended to allow charges of irregularities to be adjudicated. In this case, Khamenei immediately approved the alleged results.”
Says Cole: “as a first reaction, this post-election situation looks to me like a crime scene.”
There are twitterers in Iran to follow including HERE and Karoubi’s campaign manager HERE.
In addition to the sources cited above check out Tehranlive and Tehranbureau.
- jpt
Sen. DeMint: GOP Race Could Go Until Convention 
Obama Avoids Questions on Contraception Rule
Interesting, it seems Ahmadinejad did the same thing Bush did against Al Gore.
Posted by: V. Brame | June 14, 2009, 9:00 am 9:00 am
Is this enough for Iran to reach the tipping point?
Not if the Obama administration/CNN/NBC remains quiet.
Posted by: WhereWasThePress? | June 14, 2009, 9:17 am 9:17 am
V. Brame wrote: “Interesting, it seems Ahmadinejad did the same thing Bush did against Al Gore.”
You don’t know what the electoral college is? You shouldn’t be blogging about world news if you don’t have a middle school education.
The actions described in this article indicate that a conspiracy took place.
Posted by: Dave | June 14, 2009, 9:31 am 9:31 am
It seems that US has no moral authority to judge Iran on their election. I remembered when Mr. Obama was running, the media was so biased that it becomes a direct influence on the final result.
Posted by: young_voter | June 14, 2009, 10:38 am 10:38 am
Iran should do a recount to publish more accurate results, instead of the rushed count that they were forced to do to counter the destabilizing and irresponsible early announcement of ‘clear victory’ by Mousavi. The conservatives should also learn to counter electronic media campaigns with more creativity than just turning everything off, much like our republicans have had to learn.
Posted by: MarkLeavenworth | June 14, 2009, 10:50 am 10:50 am
Who knows what the truth is except for those counting the thing, but I am glad to see the people demanding more freedoms. Unlike Iran, we are actually moving in the opposite direction.
Posted by: Huh | June 14, 2009, 10:54 am 10:54 am
Who knows what the truth is except for those counting the thing, but I am glad to see the people demanding more freedoms. Unlike Iran, we are actually moving in the opposite direction.
————————
Thanks for that insight. Creative energy and social order are like two sides of a revolving mirror. Todays liberal is tomorrow’s conservative, and vice-verse. Hardlines are drawn in the sand, but the waves under His Hand will never cease.
Posted by: MarkLeavenworth | June 14, 2009, 11:02 am 11:02 am
I wish them the best, but the current leaders of Iran don’t seem to be the kind who care if they are caught committing fraud during the election. It isn’t a real human rights-centric regime.
Ayatollah Khamenei has already declared the victor. Everybody knows he’s the real power anyway, right? It would take something incredible to get him to back down.
But, as I said, I am hoping for them.
Posted by: MayBee | June 14, 2009, 11:27 am 11:27 am
Maybee- The claims all over our headlines that the election was a fraud were way over-blown. Now, there are very few credible sources who doubt that Amadi-Nejad actually received a majority vote, the question is the accuracy of the count. Everyone knows that Mousavi announced a ‘clear victory’ before counting even started, so it wouldn’t be below the Ayatollah to get more accurate geographic tallies once the social unrest has settled, seeing that the first count was necessarily rushed. I don’t suggest it would change the results, it would just make them more accurate and elevate the public view of Iran’s commitment to the communication of accurate internal measures.
Posted by: MarkLeavenworth | June 14, 2009, 12:02 pm 12:02 pm
I find the sympathetic nature of reports in line with my own views in favor of the jilted opposition — but I’ve seen few real reporting on numbers, on how or why they may be inappropriately skewed.
Very few facts.
And I’m surprised at the side-picking — such dramatic descriptions of the protests. I’ve seen similar police tactics here in the US, particularly in Washington, DC. But the media don’t often take the time to give such detailed, let alone favorably dramatic descriptions of suppressed free speech.
And I am mean I have seen some of the same exact things: Police grabbing and smashing cameras, launching projectiles at unarmed, if angry, demonstrators, mass arrests, etc.
Posted by: Matthew | June 14, 2009, 12:11 pm 12:11 pm
When there is election fraud in our own country, like the stolen presidential election in 2004 and 2000, it’s not reported but when elections in foreign sovereign countries and governments such as Iran and the Palestinian Authority don’t go the way PAC and special interests want then our media raises hell.
When major newspapers such as the NYT and The Globe go under I wonder how far behind will the mainstream media be?
Can not only ABC but NBC and the other media as well give us some actual real verifiable facts rather than propaganda in at least the Iran situation?
Posted by: Konstantin | June 14, 2009, 12:21 pm 12:21 pm
We have the same thing here look the czar lied to us also here .what else is new,Our czar and the one in Iran are one and the same .
Posted by: Joeray | June 14, 2009, 12:39 pm 12:39 pm
what else is new he and Obama are the same type .
Posted by: Joeray | June 14, 2009, 12:41 pm 12:41 pm
Mousavi said if he did not win the election there would be riots in the streets, guess he had it planned out if he did not like the results.
I would really love for someone to tell me how the USA knows this election was rigged, and what makes them feel Mousavi would be the better choice?
Once again here we go meddling in another country business and the end result will be we will get the crappy end of the stick as usual, we never seem to learn do we.
Posted by: SJ | June 14, 2009, 3:42 pm 3:42 pm
Iranian elections are a farce, even if they are run legitimately. Because of Iran’s power structure, the true head of state is the Ayatollah. And even if Mousavi had won, he is hardly going to change Iran’s international policy toward the West or stop the country’s pace toward nuclear weaponry. Anyone who has read Mousavi’s bio from the 80′s would know this. Western media has only recently spun Mousavi like they’ve been spinning Obama as a great force for reconciliation and change. I support Mr. Obama but I am definitely tired of his media lap dogs making speech to the Muslim world into something bigger than it is. The only true Islamic democracy in the Middle East today is Iraq, which cost American lives and the undoing of our last president.
Posted by: t961585 | June 14, 2009, 3:51 pm 3:51 pm
Posted by: t961585 | Jun 14, 2009 3:51:40 PM
==============
brilliantly said.
Posted by: MayBee | June 14, 2009, 4:54 pm 4:54 pm
Ahmadinejad, Ayatollah Khamenei, and other conservative/traditional “hard-line” Muslims in Iran could be accused of rigging an election to protect their own interests by keeping their jobs, but I think it’s only fair to say that they might also be motivated by fear of US invasion and occupation should a more progressive regime take power of their country. You can’t blame Iran for wanting nuclear weapons; if I were a middle eastern, Muslim nation with a good deal of the world’s remaining oil, and the USA was building an empire, taking over and occupying my neighbors one at a time, and wanting to take my land for it’s resources before I could make lucrative deals (that are in the works) to sell my oil to Russia and China, I would want to be able to protect myself with a nuclear deterrent to invasion as well. It’s unethical of the USA, as the only nation to ever drop nuclear bombs on another country (Japan) to try and play moral guardian of the world. It’s like the bully on the playground who beats smaller kids with a big stick, and tells the other kids they aren’t allowed to pick up sticks to protect themselves.
Posted by: Mark Baland | June 14, 2009, 5:45 pm 5:45 pm
Here is a blog by a wellknown iranian poet Sheema on her blog…
It was supposed to be the perfect script. Mousavi’s victory was supposed to be hailed as the indication of Iranian rulers having “unclenched their fist”. It was supposed to be the perfect time for reconciliation with Mullahs. It was supposed to be the clearest sign yet of the success of Obama administration’s soft spoken approach towards the Muslim world. It was supposed to be the time for celebration of the Obama effect.
Ahmadinejad’s coup d’état changed the game altogether. It sent all the deal-makers and rapprochement enthusiasts of Washington think-tanks back to the drawing board.
The most important foreign policy implication is that the coup d’état government is dead serious about going nuclear. Any “grand-bargain” between Washington and Tehran under Mousavi would have led to concessions on Iran’s nuclear program. This would have been unacceptable for the Pasdaran commanders who will not be content with any less position than the one enjoyed by their Pakistani counterparts.
As the western governments and in particular US will be wrestling with the question of legitimacy versus negotiations, the coup d’état government will use the time to make as much progress as possible in its nuclear program. Unlike what many might think, the coup d’état government will in fact embrace doubts on its legitimacy to further complicate the issue and seize on it as an opportunity to blame the West for interference in Iranian domestic affairs. As the game continues, Israel will see no choice but to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities. What will happen next is anyone’s guess.
This is all obviously conditioned on the success of the coup d’état which by no means is a given at this time. The arrests made by the coup d’état government yesterday has no significance other than a show of force. Rafsanjani is the only person who, as the head of the assembly of experts, has the authority to remove Khamenei from power. He has the will but the question is whether he has enough number of votes (i.e. enough support among clerics). Many believe that he is in Qom to make such assessment. Additionally, such high risk move has a chance of success only against the backdrop of mass dissatisfaction with the election results and at least some support from the armed and security forces.
A velvet change is underway. Whether it turns out to be a velvet revolution or velvet coup d’état remains to be seen.
Posted by: frieda | June 14, 2009, 6:18 pm 6:18 pm
my prvious blogs have been deleted here why??
here is the latest in Iran.
100 student of university of Tehran has been arrested.
student are texting asking for help
police is releasing some sort of smoke into the dorms
will Obama stand by the student of Ahamdinejad??
Posted by: frieda | June 14, 2009, 6:50 pm 6:50 pm
Wonder if the New Black Panther Party were at their voting places with billy clubs like here in Philly…..And I wonder if THEIR attny general will dismiss charges against them.
I am more appalled at OUR voting corruption under Obama. Can you say ACORN?
Posted by: mary | June 14, 2009, 7:12 pm 7:12 pm
“Iranian elections are a farce, even if they are run legitimately.”
It doesn’t matter if you think the elections are a farce. They were real enough for us to know that Ahmadinejad lost. Obama addressed the Iranian people and they responded. But of course Obama’s detractors are going to say it doesn’t really mean anything just like this silly assertion that Iraq has a successful democracy now. I wouldn’t give that government ten minutes after we pull out -we’ve heard ‘mission accomplished’ before.
Posted by: Skip | June 14, 2009, 7:39 pm 7:39 pm
Obama addressed the Muslim world and you think the people in Iran responded are you kidding me?
Posted by: SJ | June 14, 2009, 8:10 pm 8:10 pm
Skippy,
The point is that the students who voted for Mousavi and might have been receptive to Obama’s speech are not the ones in power. Obama’s speech was meant to reach out to Amadinejahd and the Ayatollah. But they have responded by quelling even the farce of a democracy that they have. Obama is right to reach out to Iran but I never expected him to deliver miracles (unlike the liberal media’s unrealistic expectations). Now, he will have to take sides and I DO hope it will be with the students instead of legitimizing a coup.
Posted by: t961585 | June 14, 2009, 10:50 pm 10:50 pm
What does Obama approval of an election in Iran have to do with anything,Obama is President of the USA not President of the world.
Obama cannot interfere into the internal political matters of another country, why do some of you feel everyone is so taken over with Obama?
Time to wake up people am very sure the Middle East is not drinking the kool aid as some of you are
Posted by: SJ | June 14, 2009, 11:31 pm 11:31 pm
The elections in the U.S. aren’t exactly pristine.. we should only look at ourselves.. or at least, our own system..first.
I have little doubt that what’s his name actually won.. maybe the landslide was a bit of hype.. they don’t have an electoral college, that’s probably a good thing. It’s a theocracy anyway.. why get excited.. Israel is going to bomb them anyway.. and we won’t interfere with them.. All in all it wasn’t a bad day.
Posted by: DontGet818OnMeNow | June 15, 2009, 7:50 am 7:50 am
the Tweet Revolution of Iran will be a success!
Posted by: Mackey | June 22, 2009, 12:18 am 12:18 am