Today’s Qs for O’s WH – 6/8/2009
EmailJared Bernstein, the top economic adviser to Vice President Biden, joined White House press secretary Robert Gibbs at the briefing.
TAPPER: Yes, in January, you and Dr. Romer issued a — your recommendation for the stimulus that turned out to be rather optimistic, I think it’s fair to say. You said, without the stimulus, the unemployment rate would be just over 8 percent. Obviously, it’s 9.4 percent. How do you explain that? And have you factored in whatever overly optimistic view you had then when you talk about (creating) 600,000 (in the next 100 days) jobs now?
BERNSTEIN: The answer to the second part of the question is yes. And I’ll elaborate on that in a second. On the first part of the question, when we made our initial estimates, that was before we had fourth-quarter results on GDP, which we later found out was contracting at an annual rate of 6 percent, far worse than we expected at that time.
To elaborate a bit on the second part of your question, the important thing to realize is that our estimate, whether it’s 600,000 jobs over the second 100 days or 3.5 million jobs over the life of the plan, that’s the difference between what we believe have occurred from the job market in the absence of this plan, and what we actually observe in the job market. In the absence of the — were this plan not to be implemented as I’ve described and as Dr. Romer and I articulated back then, in the absence of the plan, job losses would have been deeper.
From whatever level they started, job losses would have been deeper. The unemployment rate would have been, by — our estimate is by the end of next year — would have been between 1.5 and 2 points higher than it otherwise will be. So those estimates that we are touting today and the estimates that you hear us talk about, that’s the difference between what would have happened to the job market, the unemployment rate, were this plan not in effect, and the actual outcomes of jobs. And that gap, that difference between actual and the — the expectation, absent the plan, that’s where the estimates come from.
**
TAPPER: A couple questions. One, last week, I assume you were — you weren’t here in your D.C. quarters, but…
GIBBS: I think I saw you in France.
TAPPER: Yes. It was lovely. The commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics testified before Congress, and he was asked about the 450,000 claim. Can you substantiate…
GIBBS: The 450…?
TAPPER (correcting self): …150,000 job claim. And he was asked if he could substantiate the claim. And he called — the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner said, “No, that would be a very difficult thing for anybody to substantiate.” He was asked, again, “So you’re saying you can’t verify that the administration’s policies have created an additional 150,000 jobs?” And he said, “No, we’re busy just counting jobs. Is it fair for the administration to use a statistic like 150,000 jobs saved or created when the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics does not stand by the number?
GIBBS: I would point you to what — what Jared talked about and the two reports that are on the Internet. I do think it’s fair. And I haven’t seen the report, having been overseas, but, yes, we continue to think it’s fair.
TAPPER: OK. And the other question I had is, ABC interviewed Lakhdar Boumedinne, the former Guantanamo detainee, who is now free in France. He spent seven and a half years in Guantanamo, or almost all of that time in Guantanamo, and he is considering suing the United States government for that time. Does the Obama administration think that people who have been freed from Guantanamo deserve any compensation?
GIBBS: I would have to ask somebody at NSC what — what that involves. I don’t think that’s been part of any of the discussions that have taken place here as it relates to the many issues around the closure of Guantanamo Bay.
– jpt
Sen. DeMint: GOP Race Could Go Until Convention 
Obama Avoids Questions on Contraception Rule
Poor Gibbs.. there you go again Jake.. leading him in the dance one way.. then abruptly changing direction..
Harsh!
Posted by: DontGet818OnMeNow | June 8, 2009, 4:59 pm 4:59 pm
I don’t mean to be cruel but I wonder about this woman when I hear the jobless rates rising:
“I won’t have to worry about putting gas in my car. I won’t have to worry about paying my mortgage. You know, if I help him, he’s gonna help me.”
And, I love Gibbs retort about Boumedinne. Um, no, no one thought that they might sue us. All those lawyers in the WH and no one thought about this? Really?
Posted by: WhereWasThePress? | June 8, 2009, 7:27 pm 7:27 pm
Jake, I am disappointed. You let them off the hook on those unemployment claims and the performance of the economy way too easily. Say a business said, “well business has been bad, but it would have been much worse if we hadn’t borrowed all this money from the bank”, and then was unable to pay their loan back because business was in fact much worse than they had told the banker it would be if they did not get the loan. That banker would demand instant repayment of all the debt he held because he knows this business is run by fools who will keep deluding themselves and burning through money and he won’t get anything in the end. For those of you who had a hard time following my analogy the businessman is the Obama admin and the banker is we the people.
Posted by: Jason | June 8, 2009, 8:20 pm 8:20 pm
9.4 percent unemployment is bad-not bad but awful. What we all should be wondering and worrying about is why the private sector is not investing in Americas future. We can build some sidewalks and insulate some homes but in the end it is the people putting their money at risk to start businesses or invest in others.
Someone might ask is there a bit of uncertainty with Obamas ability to grasp the capitalist system.
Posted by: david | June 8, 2009, 8:51 pm 8:51 pm
So they couldn’t correctly estimate total job losses with the stimulus but they still claim they can estimate how many MORE jobs would have been lost without it.
Posted by: Foghorn Leghorn | June 8, 2009, 9:48 pm 9:48 pm
more pearls from the ‘Right”:
wasn’t it just a few weeks ago that they were up in arms about only Republican dealers were being closed… now, they want to shut all the dealers down……these guys are the finest examples of the inane, stupid and moronic right wing Republican-Conservative agenda.
“In the effort to reverse this lurch beyond the farthest left fringe of previous Democratic urges, individual Americans have a role to play. They have to say no to GM products and services until such time as the denationalization occurs,” says Hugh Hewitt.
He acknowledges that this is a serious step that could hurt people currently working for GM: “But there isn’t any alternative, every dollar spent with GM is a dollar spent against free enterprise. Every car or truck purchased from Government Motors is one not purchased from a private car company that competes fairly against all other car companies.”
Where Hewitt makes his point as a seemingly reluctant and composed agitator, Rush Limbaugh makes no bones about what he wants in his own praise of the idea.
The most amazing thing here is that Limbaugh appears to be openly admitting that the purpose of this is economic and political sabotage — to prevent President Obama from succeeding at something.
Posted by: No Mas | June 9, 2009, 2:00 am 2:00 am
Jake.. it’s change we can believe in.. you have to get on the Obama bandwagon..you are not getting it.. you just have to believe..
Obviously, you are getting lost in the details.. and questioning the administration.. it’s not cricket..
Posted by: DontGet818OnMeNow | June 9, 2009, 7:43 am 7:43 am
Jake,
Could you ask the WH what they expect the unemployment numbers to be next quarter (higher, or lower) instead of this phoney ‘created or saved’ business?
Posted by: J House | June 9, 2009, 8:59 am 8:59 am
“You would think that any self-respecting White House press corps would show some of the same skepticism toward President Obama’s jobs claims that they did toward President Bush’s tax cuts,” says Mr. Fratto. “But I’m still waiting.”
Jake,you are the only WH reporter that garners any respect…keep it up.
Posted by: J House | June 9, 2009, 9:07 am 9:07 am
Using May BLS statistics, the math is simple. There were 2,105 million more unemployed workers than the 8% WH estimate. Saving 150K jobs is a bald face lie.
Posted by: Cal | June 9, 2009, 9:25 am 9:25 am
So Gibbs says, the administration made that estimate without the 4th Quarter GDP estimate, which was lower than expected. Sounds like an excuse, and a crappy one at that. Mean out of all the economic indicators that are available by the end of Jan, THAT was the one that tipped the scales? Maybe so, just sounds like a back peddle.
Also Jake, if you could throw a bone to the military out there, we have a saying that you should teach Gibbs…
“Shut up and color.”
That’s essentially what he said to you in a rather verbose fashion. Save all of us some time, send him an email and teach him that saying and we can skip the “um… we believe… I believe… We… no I think…” He could just say “Shut up and color” and we would all get it much quicker.
Posted by: KR | June 9, 2009, 9:44 am 9:44 am
I created or saved 2 million jobs just this morning….
This is utterly contemptuous of the intellect of America. The sad part is that this charade has worked on most of the country and most of the press, who cannot suspend disbelief fast enough for Obama. This country is in trouble and most of the press is riding the car right off the cliff.
Posted by: drjohn | June 9, 2009, 12:36 pm 12:36 pm
At least Gibbs didn’t say they inherited the 150K job claim.
Posted by: ctmom | June 9, 2009, 1:07 pm 1:07 pm
“This is utterly contemptuous of the intellect of America.”
Where were you when Carl Rove sold America George Bush for 2 terms and then did things like lower the EPA standards for air quality and then tell us the air was cleaner because the numbers looked better, etc,etc.
Posted by: Skip | June 9, 2009, 1:49 pm 1:49 pm
Skip,
So your eternal argument is that the Obama administration can lie with dispatch because in your humble opinion Karl Rove did the same thing?
Just so have it straight…
Posted by: Plumber | June 9, 2009, 3:25 pm 3:25 pm
“EPA standards for air quality”
Sorry anyone else get a chuckle when they read this? Remember when there was that huge fire in Mexico and the smoke was drifting all the way accross America? I was flying in Kingsville, Texas at the time. Every time you walked outside in the morning it smelled like your clothes were on fire. Satellite shots showed this great big soot cloud rolling over the US. Or when that Volcano errupted and the sulfuic gas circled the globe?
Yet, it can be reguluated! I love it.
My dad used to joke when I was a kid, he would say “won’t be long before the government figures out a way to tax the air we breath”. Little did we know he was a prophet of government regulation gone wild.
Posted by: KR | June 9, 2009, 4:01 pm 4:01 pm
I would like to ask… SHOW ME THE MATH… it doesn’t exist… there is no economic formula to justify these numbers, only this administration would be allowed to spew so much BS….
Posted by: Geo | June 9, 2009, 7:19 pm 7:19 pm
This can’t be serious? Is this some kind of quest spot for The Onion? Is Colbert also guest editing for ABC?
Bush couldn’t even play Golf, but this administration gets to make up numbers and not be challenged?
Posted by: Ben Gonzalez | June 9, 2009, 10:15 pm 10:15 pm
I have been receiving the extended benefits in Illinois. The 13 additional weeks promised by the president. As of June 8th my balance was $2700. I filed my teleserve the following Wednesday, the 10th and nothing was said out of the ordinary. I find out this morning, the 11th that because by my case ends July 5th 2009, 3 weeks from now, I no longer get payments and will not be receiving the 13 additional weeks promised by Mr. Obama. I will be notifying every newspaper outlet, blog, message board possible. Something fishy is goin on in this state and it stinks. We’ll get to the bottom of it.
Posted by: ChicagoGuy | June 11, 2009, 8:25 pm 8:25 pm