You Say You Want a Revolution? — What Should President Obama Do About Iran?
EmailABC News' Jake Tapper and Huma Khan report:
As President Obama ever-so-slightly ups his rhetoric on the Iranian election, we checked in for our ABC News Shuffle Podcast with Columbia University Professor Gary Sick, former National Security Council member under Presidents Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and Ronald Reagan and principal White House aide for Iran during the Iranian Revolution and the hostage crisis.
You can listen to the podcast HERE or on iTunes.
“My advice to President Obama would be, say as little as humanly possible,” Sick said. “This is a spontaneous Iranian event. It is going to be resolved in Iran, not in Washington. There is nothing that we can say or do that is going to change things, except for the worse.”
Sick says any negative reaction from the White House about Iran’s election would only fuel anti-Western rhetoric from President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s government.
“If we intervene and start making pronouncements about what the Iranian people should do, the regime will greet that with great enthusiasm and say look, 'Here is the West. They're showing their real colors and all of you who are protesting are in fact tools of the West, and so you can't pay attention to these people,’” Sick predicts. “It would undercut them tremendously and there's really nothing we can say at this point. We should recognize that this is Iranian politics and it's going to be resolved in Iran, not here.”
Today, President Obama said in a joint press conference with South Korean President Lee Myung-bak that he was concerned about the election results, which declared Ahmadinejad the winner.
“I have said before I have deep concerns about the election,” the president said when asked if he had confidence in the election results, “and I think that the world has deep concerns about the election. You've seen in Iran some initial reaction from the supreme leader that indicates he understands the Iranian people have deep concerns about the election.”
Ahmadinejad’s main rival, reformist Mir-Hossein Mousavi and other candidates are alleging voting fraud and demanding a new election. Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had said the government would conduct an investigation into the election and do a partial recount.
According to Sick, the massive protests and irregularities in voting, such as the notion that Ahmadinejad won in Mousavi’s hometown province of Tabriz by a landslide, suggest the votes were tampered with.
“We'll probably never have a full accounting of this election and we'll probably never have the kind of smoking gun, if you like, clear indication that this was a manipulated election,” Sick said. “As a friend of mine said, ‘If it walks like a coup, and it smells like a coup, and it talks like a coup, maybe it’s a coup.’ And the idea that you have the leadership of the country carrying out in effect a political coup to put them to assure themselves of another four years of rule is something that was really distasteful to the Iranian people.”
Pro-Mousavi rallies have turned violent, with as many as eight people reported dead after Monday’s protests and skirmishes between state militia and protestors. Sick says the situation is unique, and in some ways resembles the demonstrations in 1978-79 that led to the overthrow of the Shah and the Islamic Revolution.
“This is unique. We really have not seen this kind of an outbreak,” Sick said. “What's really happened is that they [Iranians] resent the fact that the institution — the leadership, the elite — basically dissed them. They had ignored them, treated them with contempt. And they feel that the outcome was so incredible that nobody could believe it and that their voice is simply being ignored by the people who lead them, and they are very upset about that.”
On Tuesday, Ahmadinejad’s supporters came out to show their support for the president, who is in Russia to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit as an observer. But Mousavi’s supporters are not backing down. They are planning to hold more rallies around the country to continue protesting the elections. Sick says it is unlikely that Ahmadinejad’s government will be removed from power, but the protests will have lasting impact on the country.
“What it seems to be really has happened is the regime has blundered very badly, has undercut not only its legitimacy in the eyes of people but its authority, it's ability to say 'We know best.' People look at it and say, 'You don't. We know that you don't because look what you did,'” he said.
“That sense of injustice that was performed by the ruling elite is something that will in fact survive this however the details play out, that's something that the Islamic regime is going to have to live with for a very long time and I think it marks a historic change of basically from a regime that was able to count on the honest support of its people to a regime that really has reduced to governing by repression and manipulation.”
We also spoke to Professor Sick about how Iranians have used technology to get out their message, and much more.
You can download the podcast on iTunes or listen HERE.
– Jake Tapper and Huma Khan
Santorum: Money Will Not Defeat Obama, Ideas Will 
Rick Santorum's Full Speech at CPAC 2012
Professor Gary Sick, former National Security Council member under Presidents Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and Ronald Reagan and principal White House aide for Iran during the Iranian Revolution and the hostage crisis.
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Obviously an expert in dealing successfully with Iran.
Posted by: MayBee | June 16, 2009, 4:23 pm 4:23 pm
===Obviously an expert in dealing successfully with Iran.
Posted by: MayBee | Jun 16, 2009 4:23:28 PM===
::snort::
Posted by: Axey | June 16, 2009, 4:29 pm 4:29 pm
Obama is afraid to upset the Iranian leadership?
Does he know something we don’t – like Iran already has nukes on their long-range missles and he does not want to upset an unstable dictatorship?
Posted by: Sally J | June 16, 2009, 4:30 pm 4:30 pm
“Obviously an expert in dealing successfully with Iran.”
It’s a little tougher to succeed when the presidential challenger is underhandedly dealing with the with your adversaries behind your back.
Posted by: Skip | June 16, 2009, 4:42 pm 4:42 pm
“What it seems to be really has happened is the regime has blundered very badly, has undercut not only its legitimacy in the eyes of people but its authority, it’s ability to say ‘We know best.’ People look at it and say, ‘You don’t. We know that you don’t because look what you did,’” he said.
====
On npr yesterday, other experts were certain this was not a blunder, but the point of the whole exercise. It was done in such an obvious way specifically to tell the Iranian people they have no real say.
They will regain their authority the way other authoritarian regimes regain authority- not by proving their legitimacy to the people, but by proving their strength.
We’ll see how it turns out. Obviously, Russia and China are already confering legitimacy on Ahmadinejad.
Posted by: MayBee | June 16, 2009, 4:43 pm 4:43 pm
There is nothing wrong with our opposition to the terrorist and oppressive regime. While the Allies 1950s action to install, really reestablish, the Shah was too much out of the British imperial playbook, the motivation was that Mossadegh was a classic stand-in for democratic reformer like Kerensky, Benes, or Masaryk who would be pushed or putsched out of the way and Iran – and Iraq would fall behind a Southern Iron Curtain. Never forget these circumstances.
The “game” of intrigue in Central Asia is a complex set of ethnic groups, religious sects, and political extremes, and we see that even in the makeup of the Iranian opposition.
But perhaps, just perhaps, this time the Iranian people themselves will be dealt a better hand, or deal themselves though the West can be of help
Our President should lead on this issues (and also pursuing it behind the scenes)
Posted by: robertb | June 16, 2009, 4:49 pm 4:49 pm
Obama needs to read up on recent history. He needs to study Reagan and the Polish revolution.
Posted by: WhereWasThePress? | June 16, 2009, 4:54 pm 4:54 pm
“Obama needs to read up on recent history. He needs to study Reagan and the Polish revolution.”
Hot air says it, the parrots repeats it.
Of course Poland did not have a history of our CIA organizing a coup of their democratically elected government installing a friendly puppet because they dared nationalize their oil industry.
But hey its not like right wingers understand history beyond using it as a quick dishonest example for a policy argument.
Posted by: Ryan C | June 16, 2009, 5:00 pm 5:00 pm
Keep reading your Alinsky’s Rules for Radicals. “Tactics are those consciously deliberate acts by which human beings live with each other and deal with the world around them,” wrote Alinsky.
1. Power is not only what you have but what the enemy thinks you have.
2. Never go outside the experience of your people. It may result in confusion, fear and retreat.
3. Wherever possible go outside the experience of the enemy. Here you want to cause confusion, fear and retreat.
4. Make the enemy live up to his/her own book of rules.
5. Ridicule is man’s most potent weapon.
6. A good tactic is one that your people enjoy.
7. A tactic that drags on too long becomes a drag.
8. Keep the pressure on, with different tactics and actions and utilize all events of the period for your purpose.
9. The threat is usually more terrifying than the thing itself.
10. The major premise for tactics is the development of operations that will maintain a constant pressure upon the opposition.
11. If you push a negative hard and deep enough it will break through into its counterside.
12. The price of a successful attack is a constructive alternative.
13. Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it and polarize it.
Posted by: WhereWasThePress? | June 16, 2009, 5:05 pm 5:05 pm
“Of course Poland did not have a history of our CIA organizing a coup of their democratically elected government installing a friendly puppet because they dared nationalize their oil industry.”
Poland and Czechslovakia etc etc did have a history of a democratic reformer suffering coup both in 1940 and then in “spring” thaws in the Warsaw pact
Mossadegh to me is the same as Kerensky or Benes or Masaryk. He was a democratic front to incipient communist conspirators. It was in our interests in the West to bring him down in favor of the quarter century stability the Shah provided. We have very little to be sorry for.
Posted by: robertb | June 16, 2009, 5:05 pm 5:05 pm
“Mossadegh to me is the same as Kerensky or Benes or Masaryk. He was a democratic front to incipient communist conspirators. It was in our interests in the West to bring him down in favor of the quarter century stability the Shah provided. We have very little to be sorry for.”
So the United States has no reason to respect democratically elected leaders and should feel free to overthrow them at any time.
Ladies and gentleman, I present to you right wing foreign policy.
Posted by: Ryan C | June 16, 2009, 5:08 pm 5:08 pm
“It was in our interests in the West to bring him down in favor of the quarter century stability the Shah provided.”
Soon robertb will be justifying slavery as a necessary component to economic viability of the South.
Posted by: Ryan C | June 16, 2009, 5:10 pm 5:10 pm
“So the United States has no reason to respect democratically elected leaders and should feel free to overthrow them at any time. Ladies and gentleman, I present to you right wing foreign policy.”
That the left is in denial or is deceived that evil will triumph unless someone acts against it – I present to you left wing foreign policy.
Posted by: robertb | June 16, 2009, 5:11 pm 5:11 pm
“Soon robertb will be justifying slavery as a necessary component to economic viability of the South.
No I will be justifying invasion, suspension of habeus corpus, summary reprisal against acts against our POWs and civilians, summary usurpation of rights both civil and criminal territory – like Lincoln
Posted by: robertb | June 16, 2009, 5:14 pm 5:14 pm
“That the left is in denial or is deceived that evil will triumph unless someone acts against it – I present to you left wing foreign policy.”
Because staging a coup of a democratically elected leader and installing and supporting a dictator for 25 years is “fighting evil”.
Ladies and gentleman, again I present to you the right wing foreign policy.
Posted by: Ryan C | June 16, 2009, 5:15 pm 5:15 pm
When Israel acts without his approval (at least public approval) – this whole election debate will go away.. whenever I personally have a tempest in a teapot, I always say to myself.. ‘a bigger story will come along’.
There is no reason to act rashly, Israel will take care of that.
Posted by: DontGet818OnMeNow | June 16, 2009, 5:16 pm 5:16 pm
“..in favor of the quarter century stability the Shah provided.”
We mustn’t forget that there is a big difference between a good dictator and a bad one.
Posted by: Skip | June 16, 2009, 5:22 pm 5:22 pm
“Because staging a coup of a democratically elected leader and installing and supporting a dictator for 25 years is “fighting evil”.
Yes defeating communism is fighting evil. Yes fighting against Islamofascism is fighting evil. Was Lech Walesa actions or any of the revolts in Eastern Europe democratic by taking direct action and protests – I think not – but they were supported by the West.
I think we should all love a coup that supports our interests and is BETTER than what otherwise would be. Dop’t you?
Posted by: robertb | June 16, 2009, 5:23 pm 5:23 pm
You ask ‘What should Obama do about Iran?’ – the question is what CAN Obama do about Iran. And the answer is ‘very little’, that is if you want a positive outcome. The more the West tries to manipulate their government, the more radicals like Ahmadinejad will persist and try to defy us. We should be watchful, but let the Iranians decide their own fate.
Posted by: lwba | June 16, 2009, 5:24 pm 5:24 pm
‘You say you want a revolution’…
I always recommend STP’s verion of ‘Revolution’…
Posted by: DontGet818OnMeNow | June 16, 2009, 5:30 pm 5:30 pm
He is doing what he should do. Watch. Freedom comes from within it is up to the Iranians to bring it about. The US can do nothing constructive at this point. All we could do is harden The right in Iran.
I remind you all of Chicago, and Kent State. Some of you will of course syat they were Ilegal Left winger protests. Hmmmmm….ound the same.
Posted by: Thinking | June 16, 2009, 5:30 pm 5:30 pm
“Yes defeating communism is fighting evil.”
What utter nonsense.
We staged a coup because they nationalized their vast oil resources and wanted split the profits with England “only” 50/50.
Posted by: Ryan C | June 16, 2009, 5:32 pm 5:32 pm
Obama needs to send McCain over there on a bombing mission.
Posted by: Huh | June 16, 2009, 5:37 pm 5:37 pm
“We staged a coup because they nationalized their vast oil resources and wanted split the profits with England “only” 50/50.”
In the 1950s US pumped over 50% of the World’s Oil. We imported maybe a couple percent from all of the Middle East and Persian Gulf.
Oil of course would be a critical resource in another global conflict which would be another reason to keep Iran on our side of the ledger.
If oil was a reason to stop the tide of communism, so much the better.
Just a question, how long do you think the life expectancy of some fancypants democratic reformer would be in Iran in 1950. Even a bigger picture, were there any democracies along the border of the Soviet Union or its puppets not guarded by 10,000s thousands of Western soldiers, sailors and airman?? NO
So should we be sorry? Not about resolute action to secure our interests. Particular violence against innocents in our name or that of our surrogates, yes we can be ashamed especially if from shortsighted veniality. But NO, not on my life or liberty or yours, unless support of our troops keeping our freedoms is meaningness propaganda.
Posted by: robertb | June 16, 2009, 6:18 pm 6:18 pm
Wow, he’s deeply concerned. That’s profound.
Does he even know what he is doing? I think not.
He needs to mind his own business HERE AT HOME, instead of traipsing around abroad dissing the U.S. and now apparently taking control of ABC News to push his healthcare reform… that apparently is more important than the crumbling economy.
What a joke..
Posted by: mjl | June 16, 2009, 6:19 pm 6:19 pm
“Just a question, how long do you think the life expectancy of some fancypants democratic reformer would be in Iran in 1950″
I see democratic reformers are just wusses.
It takes a real man to stage a coup and install a brutal dictator.
“So should we be sorry? Not about resolute action to secure our interests”
So our interest was world domination then?
Our interest was screw democracy, loyalty is more important?
And you right wing morons wonder why the counterculture revolution happened.
Posted by: Ryan C | June 16, 2009, 6:23 pm 6:23 pm
If Mr. Obama waits long enough, the Iranian people’s struggle will eventually come to a conclusion. If it’s positive, Mr. “I”-Bama will undoubtedly credit himself. If it is adverse, he will once again blame his predecessor and/or our country.
Posted by: liam | June 16, 2009, 6:40 pm 6:40 pm
liam- I guarantee you, the spirit of those young Iranians is not going anywhere but into the future of Iran.
Posted by: MarkLeavenworth | June 16, 2009, 8:24 pm 8:24 pm
Jake, thanks for another good audio interview. It was good to contrast two different views (Dr. Sick with Sen. McCain). I also enjoyed finding Dr. Sick’s blog. Interesting read, if you haven’t already read it.
Posted by: Ordinary Sadie | June 16, 2009, 9:43 pm 9:43 pm
he will once again blame his predecessor and/or our country.
Posted by: liam
yes….. your right.. Bush & Cheney’s record on Iran is one of complete success, everything got better with Iran during that time.
The diplomatic breakthroughs leading to Iran’s pledge to not go nuclear and destroy the centrifuges…
Oh wait.. That didn’t happen during Bush & Cheney’s 8 years…
in fact the opposite happened….
oh well you can always still dream that yer boys got it right…
Posted by: PO'd | June 16, 2009, 11:53 pm 11:53 pm
Mr. Tapper,
The pieces of the Iran puzzle are finally beginning to make some sense for me. The thing that news agencies regularly don’t look at are the religious components that drive the middle-east. The golden key… we Americans can be so dim!
Spengler (Asia Times Online) is a terrific reporter IMO. If Spengler is right on his assessment of how the religious components are playing in this crisis (and I think he is), here is an article you will want to read. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KF16Ak01.html Bon apetit!
Posted by: Ordinary Sadie | June 17, 2009, 12:44 am 12:44 am
President Obama should do exactly what he has been doing since inauguration day. He should continue to reach out to the Islamic world but not directly interfere in the electoral conflict that is going on. The sure fire way for him to kill any emerging revolutionary sparks would be for him to be seen as trying to overthrow the government. Use your heads people.
Posted by: V. Brame | June 17, 2009, 6:04 am 6:04 am
All the information that we have confirms that the imposition of martial law in Iran has led to the arrest and confinement, in prisons and detention camps, of thousands of Iranian trade union leaders and intellectuals. Factories are being seized by security forces and workers beaten.
These acts make plain there’s been a sharp reversal of the movement toward a freer society that has been underway in Iran for the past year and a half. Coercion and violation of human rights on a massive scale have taken the place of negotiation and compromise. All of this is in gross violation of the UN Council on Human Rights, a body that Iran itself has chaired.
It would be naive to think this could happen without the full knowledge and the support of the Iranian Government. We’re not naive. We view the current situation in Iran in the gravest of terms, particularly the increasing use of force against an unarmed population and violations of the basic civil rights of the Iranian people.
Violence invites violence and threatens to plunge Iran into chaos. We call upon all free people to join in urging the Government of Iran to reestablish conditions that will make constructive negotiations and compromise possible.
Certainly, it will be impossible for us to continue trying to help Iran solve its economic problems while martial law is imposed on the people of Iran, thousands are imprisoned, and the legal rights of free trade unions — previously granted by the government — are now denied. We’ve always been ready to do our share to assist Iran in overcoming its economic difficulties, but only if the Iranian people are permitted to resolve their own problems free of internal coercion and outside intervention.
Our nation was born in resistance to arbitrary power and has been repeatedly enriched by immigrants from Iran and other great nations of Europe. So we feel a special kinship with the Iranian people in their struggle against Soviet opposition to their reforms.
The Iranian nation, speaking through her electorate, has provided one of the brightest, bravest moments of modern history. The people of Iran are giving us an imperishable example of courage and devotion to the values of freedom in the face of relentless opposition. Left to themselves, the Iranian people would enjoy a new birth of freedom. But there are those who oppose the idea of freedom, who are intolerant of national independence, and hostile to the values of democracy and the rule of law.
One year ago, freedom was lost in Myramar; this year, it’s at stake in Iran. But the torch of liberty is hot. It warms those who hold it high. It burns those who try to extinguish it.
The above was paraphrased by a great speech of Ronald Reagan’s – offering our support and is indeed the speech Obama (who wants to be seen as Lincoln & Reagan) should have given. The script was already written for his teleprompter years ago by a man who never needed one to lead.
Posted by: Dave | June 17, 2009, 8:50 am 8:50 am
What should we do about Iran? How about nothing. We have enough to worry about without mucking around with other soveriegn countries’ problems. In fact, it seems we have gotten involved with Iran’s political system several times in the past, which is more than likely why they are where they’re at today.
Posted by: Steve | June 17, 2009, 9:50 am 9:50 am
The president should praise freedom, and talk about how every person yearns to be free. Do not underestimate the influence of Iraqi freedom on the Iranians.
Sadly it looks like the president missed his chance, and the Iranians know it.
Posted by: Plumber | June 17, 2009, 10:11 am 10:11 am
The President is right to have a hands off approach concerning Iran…
The U.S. has a history of sticking our nose in where it doesn’t belong… especially if it will profit us in some way.
This is about the Iranian people, it is their story, their country, and their freedoms.
My heart goes out to them, especially as I watched their masses walk peacefully and nearly silently through the streets. Then as the military police approach,,, the word is spread through the masses to simple sit down…that was powerful…
As I watch these people stand up to be heard in an honest and open election…
My Attention is then turned to my own country and I watch in disbelief as Senators John McCain and Mike Pence consistently faulting this President on everything and anything but, this time for not taking a stronger stance in Iran…
Are they listening to what actually comes out of their mouths anymore…???
Seriously…
The President’s stance on this issue is a common sense one…and that is what I voted for…
Posted by: theafalcon200 | June 18, 2009, 6:22 am 6:22 am
What can he do?
Posted by: LongT | June 18, 2009, 8:59 am 8:59 am
You know, we elected this man partly because he is a great speaker … if ever there was a time for him to put those excellent speaking skills to good use, it’s now, when a tyrannical regime is abusing and killing its people who are fighting for democratic rights.
There was a time in this country when we would stand in the path of evil, speak our mind and help oppressed peoples. In not saying anything, Obama is only assisting the religious tyrants who control Iran.
Posted by: Just following along | June 18, 2009, 1:37 pm 1:37 pm
The world is in desperate need of another Ronald Reagan right now. We need someone with the courage to say something along the lines of “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!” (maybe, “mullahs, count those votes!”). Soon after Reagan gave that speech, the walls of tyranny came down in Europe. Speaking out requires courage while remaining silent requires none.
Posted by: Missing Reagan | June 18, 2009, 1:43 pm 1:43 pm
HE SHOULD NOT DO A DAM THING, LET SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT
Posted by: jean mcgrady | June 18, 2009, 4:36 pm 4:36 pm
This Martin Luther King Jr. quote sums up my opinion on the matter pretty well:
“Cowardice asks the question, “Is it safe?” Expediency asks the question, “Is it politic?” And Vanity comes along and asks the question, “Is it popular?” But Conscience asks the question “Is it right?” And there comes a time when one must take a position that is neither safe, nor politic, nor popular, but he must do it because Conscience tells him it is right.”
Posted by: My two cents | June 18, 2009, 6:04 pm 6:04 pm
What should he do?
He won’t do anything but talk a little talk and DO NOTHING.
Posted by: CPO | June 18, 2009, 7:08 pm 7:08 pm
Missing Reagan posted “We need someone with the courage to say something along the lines of “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!” (maybe, “mullahs, count those votes!”). Soon after Reagan gave that speech, the walls of tyranny came down in Europe. ”
Wow, just like magic. Reagan spoke and the walls came down. I wonder why he didn’t work his magic on the other trouble spots in the world. Like in Beirut, after our soldier were bomb, Reagan tucked tail and ran. Why didn’t he use his magic mouth then?
Posted by: SamTyler1973 | June 18, 2009, 10:18 pm 10:18 pm
Huh posted “Obama needs to send McCain over there on a bombing mission.”
With McCain’s flying skills, he’d probably crash and get captured again.
Posted by: SamTyler1973 | June 18, 2009, 10:19 pm 10:19 pm
Talk tough without thinking just like Bush and Cheney.
Posted by: Norm | June 18, 2009, 11:11 pm 11:11 pm
Republicans Pence and McCain criticizing Obama for not taking a stronger stance…Hmmm idiotic responses again…
Are the even listening to the Iranian Big government heads are already blaming this public uprising on western outsiders…MEANING US,,,,
The Republicans seem to be trying to start yet another war…???
maybe they have some investments in acts of war or the selling of weapons…
What other explanation could there be???
A lack of common sense…yeas, that’s it
Posted by: theafalcon200 | June 19, 2009, 6:00 am 6:00 am