Health Care: Three Numbers to Watch
Jerry Seib has smart take on why health care has been so hard to sell despite so many efforts.
As President Obama prepares to rally his Senate troops over lunch today — a lunch, by the way, that's never happened before — here are the three numbers that will matter most when they return to the Capitol post-Labor Day:
1) OMB's mid-session budget review: How much worse will the deficit numbers be? Can the Administration beat back the story line that its projections have been too optimistic?
2) August unemployment figures: Will they stay below that 10 percent level Mark Penn has called the "tipping point?"
3) The Dow: Nothing has done more for consumer confidence than the summer rally. Will it approach 10,000?
Unemployment below 10, Dow close to 10K, deficit projection adjusted by less than 20 percent and chances of passing health care rise by 50 percent.
- George Stephanopoulos
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what can one say other than all valid points that should be answered during the recess. point 1 will be the critical factor especially if it gets delayed again.
Posted by: catman | August 4, 2009, 1:37 pm 1:37 pm
The economy means nothing for health care.
Posted by: Matt | August 4, 2009, 1:49 pm 1:49 pm
Why has health care “been so hard to sell despite so many efforts?”
Because the insurance industry owns our senators and congresspeople! Their votes are bought with campaign money, simple as that.
Additionally, the insurance industry is spending over $1 million a day to kill reform. Why not report on that?
Posted by: Miles | August 4, 2009, 1:53 pm 1:53 pm
Healthcare reform will pass because it is right for America. Now we finally have a President that will fight for it. Fight for all citzens to have access to some type of medicaial care. And beleive me he will win!!
Posted by: lowes4321 | August 4, 2009, 2:46 pm 2:46 pm
I hope Obama can push health care reform through Congress. I have health insurance through my employer, but I do agree that the system is broke. The fact that insurance companies can deny someone coverage because of pre-existing conditions is just wrong. I believe most individuals do not realize how precarious a situation they may be in if they lose their jobs and need to try to obtain individual health insurance on the open market. You could be denied coverage for the slightest thing from the prescriptions you may have taken years ago.
Posted by: Mike | August 4, 2009, 3:35 pm 3:35 pm
Mike…preexisting conditions are not necessarily denied carte blanche…if you have had creditable coverage going to a new company and that condition was covered, you will just move on to the new company and be covered from day one. If you had coverage but perhaps lost if for a period of time, say 4 months…the new company will exempt pre exisiting conditons for the time you were uninsured. Most will cover after a certain number of months…so that pony don’t fly.
What is even more frightening is this bozo’s approach to leadership on every level even to the point now of wanting to know who is saying what about healthcare and to be reported to the white house…can anyone say dictatorship?
Posted by: CWG | August 4, 2009, 4:51 pm 4:51 pm
We do need health care for all Americans, but trying to shove it through Congress in a rush is a very scary thought. Congress doesn’t get much right and I doubt this would be done correctly. I would hope healthcare reform would be done slowly and with much thought and foresight.
Posted by: LYNN | August 4, 2009, 4:52 pm 4:52 pm
lowes4321–Healthcare needs reform but it shouldn’t be government reform of healthcare. You will rue the day it happened if you need a surgery and they decide you are too old and not valuable enough to save. They will be eliminating babies and old people.
Posted by: CWG | August 4, 2009, 4:54 pm 4:54 pm
The US government in partnership with the insurance companies have sold the American people that Socialize Medicine is not good. Europe and many countries in South America have that system. It’s better than having 50 million Americans and many more barely making ends meet being forced to pay for private health care. Most Americans in today’s economy cannot afford the cost of medicines and hospital care. The wealthy can always pay for insurance and private medicine.
Posted by: patriot1948 | August 4, 2009, 5:16 pm 5:16 pm
You are missing the fact that while healthcare in Canada and Europe and elsewhere is less expensive…quality healthcare and quality of life is NOT.
Posted by: CWG | August 4, 2009, 5:23 pm 5:23 pm
C’mon guys, do your duty – we’ve never been this close. Happy Birthday, Mr. President!
Posted by: signseeker17 | August 4, 2009, 6:49 pm 6:49 pm
“You are missing the fact that while healthcare in Canada and Europe and elsewhere is less expensive…quality healthcare and quality of life is NOT.” – According to the CDC the U.S. has lower life spans and lower post-partum infant survival rates than Canada and most European countries.
Posted by: Mark from atlanta | August 4, 2009, 8:00 pm 8:00 pm
A crisis/irrational panic mentality was needed to pass the deficit-busting stimulus bill in the early part of this year. Now, a recovery/irrational exuberance mentality is needed to pass a future deficit-busting health insurance/care bill in the latter part of this year. An American manic-depressive political psyche at play?
Posted by: ed | August 4, 2009, 8:49 pm 8:49 pm
This administration, condescendingly is attempting to change the calculus from genuine outrage against an over-reaching administration to one of the insurance industry versus the American people. It’s sad to hear the “propagandists” dismiss legitimate protest as planned K Street financed operation. It sickens me and it shows the contempt this administration has for the American people. Call you Congressman tell them not only are you acting out of disgust and on your own but how dare they attempt to marginalize your first amendment speech rights to one of petty commercial advertising. Quit treating the American people like sheep, and respond to their concerns. Quit the Axelrod poll tested phases and govern.
Posted by: pauldia | August 4, 2009, 9:42 pm 9:42 pm
Unfortunately most people in this country who approve of socialized medicine do not understand the true difference between the U.S. and Europe. I lived in Germany for several years and can tell you from first hand experience that their socialized medicine is cheaper but does less for the patients then our health system. At the same time the average German lives a healthier lifestyle then the average American creating the appearance of a more effective health care system. The culutural differences between us involved in healthier living are not readily apparent in facts and figures and in some cases such as ciggarettes actually look completely opposite. The differences are in what they eat and how they live their lives.
No health care reform will fix that.
Posted by: John | August 4, 2009, 11:24 pm 11:24 pm
“The culutural differences between us involved in healthier living are not readily apparent in facts and figures ” – Good point, but remember that the French have longer life spans and higher infant survival rates than we do. They also smoke like chimneys, drink like fish and eat like…well you get the picture. They also happen to have, according to the WHO, the best health system in the world.
Posted by: Mark from atlanta | August 4, 2009, 11:34 pm 11:34 pm
As a working economist I am not going to pontificate about the White House’s economic model for healthcare – to say it politely, it is a vessel of fertilizer and it stinks. The only thing that I am certain of is that it the CBO is correct. In the WH model, the costs are being radically understated and the “savings” radically overstated. Just this week, the WH brought in the drug companies, who have gotten away with gouging on the Medicare part D benefits, to help. Anyone want to guess where this is going? The bottom line is that “free” healthcare is expensive. At the end of the day, we will have an expensive system that will control costs by rationing healthcare through “tough choices,” which are code words for denial of care to elderly patients.
Posted by: Rob | August 5, 2009, 12:22 am 12:22 am
As a working economist I am not going to pontificate about the White House’s economic model for healthcare – to say it politely, it is a vessel of fertilizer and it stinks. The only thing that I am certain of is that it the CBO is correct. In the WH model, the costs are being radically understated and the “savings” radically overstated. Just this week, the WH brought in the drug companies, who have gotten away with gouging on the Medicare part D benefits, to help. Anyone want to guess where this is going? The bottom line is that “free” healthcare is expensive. At the end of the day, we will have an expensive system that will control costs by rationing healthcare through “tough choices,” which are code words for denial of care to elderly patients.
Posted by: Rob | Aug 5, 2009 12:22:39 AM
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Why can’t rational thinking liberals see that? Instead they believe the rantings of this mad Kenyan Marxist Lawyer. I just don’t get it.
Posted by: WhatChange? | August 5, 2009, 5:59 am 5:59 am
The numbers to watch are that the majority like their healthcare plans.No one wants to pay a lot more money for less access, availability, options and care. Compared to 100 yrs ago when the doctors were medicine men who arrived in town with a horse and buggy and tonic waters – everyone in the US has much better access to leading edge healthcare than the previous generation. People around the world have better access to healthcare because of what was developed in the US.
Older Americans and the entire baby boomer generation have so much to lose in terms of access to good healthcare in the U.S. because the proposed healthcare nationalization marginalizes access, options and availability for all. It all points to a step back in time.
Posted by: anony | August 5, 2009, 11:17 am 11:17 am
I’m beginning to think that the Dems are deliberately stirring up trouble to gain public favor. Everyone is fighting over health care, when in reality, there is no bill yet for Congress to even vote on – there have only been proposals. Most politicians are saying exactly what a health care bill will even look like except that it will include some kind of “public option.” Until there is bill on the table, every elected official needs to stop worrying about how to sell health care and just listen to what kind of reform people actually want. If we do end up with public option – make it a real option, one that even the most senior politician would want to enroll his/her family into.
Posted by: Smiley | August 5, 2009, 12:23 pm 12:23 pm
So I just learned today that one of the provisions of the healthcare bill calls for “not guaranteeing” healthcare for children under the age of 15 and adults over the age of 50 particularly elderly with dementia, because their lives are not as important as those of young adults. Well you know what Obama? We “young people” have parents and grandparents-some with Alzheimer’s too who we love and care for- HOW DARE YOU and congress suggest their lives are not equally as important as ours?! You won’t buy this young person’s vote!
Posted by: No way | August 5, 2009, 1:05 pm 1:05 pm
No Way,
Where did you hear that?
Posted by: another mother | August 5, 2009, 1:29 pm 1:29 pm
No more gigantic too big to read bills. Why can’t they do this in steps? Start with tort reform. Put a reasonable limit on judgements. Then do something about pre-existing conditions.
Posted by: Joe | August 5, 2009, 2:17 pm 2:17 pm
THis is an excellent subsidy to the obese, smokers, alcoholics and drug users, which our nation has a majority of. I can’t freaking wait.
Posted by: Bill Brann | August 5, 2009, 2:38 pm 2:38 pm
Everyone has seen the recent government run media publishing stories that ABC, MSNBC, the Democrats and others are claiming that the protest at town hall meetings are paid for, and organized by the Republican Party. Here are the facts;
FACT: There is absolutely no evidence or money trail proving the Republican Party has paid for or organized any form of disturbance, mob induced riot, or any thing related to an Obama Health Care demonstration.
FACT: Many of those protesting at the town meetings protesting Obama Health Care are DEMOCRATS!
FACT: Many of those being protested at town hall meetings are Republicans!
FACT: ACORN members have been arrested and awaiting trial on voter fraud, and conspiracy!
FACT: ACORN members gave homeless people free meals and then drove them to vote for Obama!
FACT: ACORN members have been arrested for private property destruction!
FACT: ACORN members interfere with the duties of safety officers and blocked fire exits, and lanes of traffic!
FACT: ACORN member’s lawyer was Barack Hussein Obama!
FACT: ACORN members were instructed by Barack Hussein Obama on civil disturbance procedures and how to avoid being arrested!
FACT: ACORN members receive millions of dollars of tax payer’s money courtesy of Barack Hussein Obama!
FACT: ACORN has been appointed to conduct the next United States Census courtesy of Barack Hussein Obama!
FACT: ACORN members are on constant call by Barack Hussein Obama staff to launch protest across the country and financed by TAX PAYERS money!
NOW WHO IS TELLING THE TRUTH AND WHO IS SPREADING LIES?
Posted by: Alexander Freeborn | August 5, 2009, 3:45 pm 3:45 pm
Joe, Tort reform, the lawyers in the House and Senate will hurt their friends…You are dreaming
They would never be sensible to do it is pieces, Obama was the same person to vote again letting small business pool to buy insurance (thank you Obama, as a small business person I would be able to provide so much more if I could pool with someone).
BOttom line is they want it there way with absolutely NO DISCUSSION. Reminds me of my father when I was little, his word was it, no discussion, no rebuttal.
So frustrating….then again if we rally then we are called a mob…gee when Obama did it, he called it community organization
Posted by: Sue | August 5, 2009, 4:37 pm 4:37 pm
“Instead of acknowledging the widespread anger millions of Americans are feeling this summer toward Democrat-controlled Washington, Washington Democrats are trying to dismiss it as a fabrication,” House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, said in a statement. “That isn’t likely to sit well with Americans outside of Washington who are struggling and wondering when their elected leaders are going to wake up and change course.”
Posted by: claimAmericaBack | August 5, 2009, 9:40 pm 9:40 pm
On the healthcare issue. The Nazi IRS will handle your medical records and acorn will do the rest. Kiss it goodbye older Americans. You are history. Welcome to the New Black Panthers. Where you been? Plotting? After you get rid of all the nasty white people, you will have to deal with the illigals. Good luck. They out number you and they shoot back. LOL
Posted by: cindy philbrick | August 6, 2009, 11:20 am 11:20 am
Hope and change? This is not what I hoped for! I’m angry. So are many other Americans. We are getting this Socialized Health care rammed down our throats. If this bill passes medical care in this county will take a giant step backwards and will inevitably lead to rationing. Do we really want the government making our healthcare decisions? Ignorant, idol-watching Americans need to wake up!
Posted by: nick | August 6, 2009, 1:52 pm 1:52 pm
Prez and Congress have committed a disservice to the American public. The political landscape for meaningful reform is in place.
Unfortunately, members of Congress made the critical mistake of exerting ideology over the interest of the people. All we ask for was a plan to repair versus replace the existing system. Shame on them for jeopardizing our chances for reform.
Posted by: james T | August 6, 2009, 2:15 pm 2:15 pm
I think Obama and the Democrats ratings have fallen below the Used Car Salesman when it comes to telling the truth.They are using Voodoo economics to try to explain how they can add 50 million of un insured and cut cost.My apoligy to Used Car Salesmen for being lumped with this Socialist group.
Posted by: Johnny L | August 6, 2009, 3:25 pm 3:25 pm
So much misinformation on the issue.
anony, there is no nationalization of healthcare in the bill. You are confusing the U.S. with Canada. Our bill only calls for public health care insurance as an option. (Option means no one has to buy it, you can keep your present insurance.)
No way, wherever you got your information from, know that it is false. It is a big whopping lie that the elderly or those under 15 will be denied care. Again, the bill contains a public insurance option. Notice the word ‘insurance’ and the word ‘option’. If you don’t know what they mean, look them up. This is not national health care like they have in Canada. It is simply public health insurance available for an affordable price to those who choose it. It is insurance and it is optional. The elderly won’t need it since they already have Medicare.
What is Medicare? Public health insurance that works at only a 3% overhead for administration, compared to the 20% and more that private health insurance companies take. Medicare is public health insurance!
A bigger question is do you believe everything you hear or read on the internet? Would that be a smart thing to do?
Notice when reading these far-fetched stories that they never quote the bill directly… that is because they are lying about it. By using pretend direct quotes they would be more easily sued. And they can’t use actual quotes from the bill because they are lying about it’s content.
Think about who is profitting from our system as it stands and you can guess who is responsible for all the misinformation out there.
Posted by: Lydia | August 7, 2009, 12:18 am 12:18 am
Wouldn’t higher unemployment HELP the passing of healthcare reform?
President Obama’s biggest challenge is to figure out how to govern stupid Americans. Take the Cash for Clunker Program for example. Your retirement halved, the economy sagged, your employment is shaky, even your estate that’s REAL worth less than the purchase price for some, but all that won’t stop the irresistible new car smell.
Cash for Clunker Program is necessary and passed for all the best reasons, include but not so much for the environment, as the next generation of efficient vehicles aren’t in the market yet. The truth is, our auto manufacturers are being kept alive by tax dollars, and a little government incentive to get people (who can afford) to buy is a great idea. IMHO, the reluctant declaration of success and expansion of this program is the evidence of what the WH has to deal with.
Yes, we’re broke, so the right side of the Americans say we can’t afford health care, but both the left and right have no problem to expand the Clunker for Cash program just for that brand new car smell. That’s not the only stupidity President Obama has to deal with.
The benefactors of the previous ruling party transferred a lot of wealth and tilted the balance that left us with today’s economy, debts, and bailout obligations; we will all be short for a long time.
Forget the people, the imbalance had deteriorated to the point financiers are insolvent because tent cities are worthless, despite the power to foreclose real cities. It’s not just the household economic foundation that supports the valuations. It’s also the huge pool of money these very same insurance moguls parked and hyped the real estate market. Forget the denominating cost of energy that had reached destabilization levels, we’re talking about medicines here. This is much the same way with citizens and small businesses of this country that cannot afford and withstand chances on health, as well as the manipulated boom and bust of basic roof over the head for most average families.
The foundation of household economics had been tilted unfavorably to the point it’s effecting our overall competitiveness, thus render us with diminishing comparative advantages no matter how we try to inflate, deflate or cut ourselves out of the hole. The mismanagement of the previous ruling class left the economy insolvent and diminished our capacity beyond the possibility of short term recovery. It’ll take a while before we can inflate ourselves back to the level before the meltdown. Meanwhile, don’t be surprised to see other developing powers challenge our superpower status. Obama’s health care expansion really isn’t an option; it’s necessity. We really don’t have that much to work with. Beijing’s stimulus of $500 billion, in a $3 trillion economy, is much bigger than Washington’s $800 billion in a $14 trillion economy therefore it’s beginning to work but not for us. This means prolonged higher unemployment with more people in dire needs of something as basic as health care. Our debt obligations will grow faster than our economy for the next 10 years. -Sen. Evan Bayh Now, what can President Obama say? Boys and girls, we’re in for some hard times? He’d be impeached in less than a year.
Well to do folks better think twice before join the insurance moguls staged emotional outrage on the health reform, because your premiums will rise as more middle class lose their jobs and coverage.
Posted by: infoseek | August 7, 2009, 11:16 am 11:16 am
Obama need to define the “Public” in “Public Option”. Most taxpayers fear that that Public is going to include millions of non-paying illegal immigrants.
Posted by: David in Texas | August 9, 2009, 11:01 am 11:01 am
Is it a fact that the proposed health bill, HR 3200, provides free healthcare to people who came to this country illeagally?
Posted by: don leroux | August 9, 2009, 1:30 pm 1:30 pm
Freeborn….Your facts are a figment of your imagination. You imagine Obama as a threat to your freedom. The only threat to your freedom is your ignorance.
Walk a mile in my shoes. Had insurance for 30 years lost it when I was downsized. Now I can’t get it because I have diabetes and high blood pressure. Everything changes when it becomes personal!
These protests are 25% real 25% bs and the other 50% are staged right and left contributing. Don’t be so ignorant to ignore the reality. Everyone has a vested interest. This is personal for me!
Posted by: terry Rush | August 10, 2009, 12:12 am 12:12 am
Pelosi has chosen to call those who oppose government takeover of healthcare “un-American”. Doesn’t this seem a bit ironic from a person who considers flag burning to be an expression of free speech? Doesn’t Pelosi exhibit a bit of gall and temerity here? Isn’t this an outlandish insult to a free people?
Both Obama and Pelosi say or infer that all who oppose their government takeover of healthcare are organized by republicans, the insurance companies or some right wing organizer. However, the word is out that Obama has energized, by email, some 13 million members of his OFA (Organizing for America). Members of which pledge to support — not the flag, not the constitution, not the country, not even the Democratic Party, but Obama and his “bold plan.” OFA does not use the Democratic Party logo but the “O”-shaped logo of the Obama campaign in which the red white and blue of the flag are abstracted to soft pastel colors. So I ask the question, isn’t the real conspiracy from the left?
Why does the left use election campaign tactics in attempt to marginalize opponents of government takeover of healthcare? Why can’t a supposedly representative government just accept the fact that we are a free people who don’t want a bigger more intrusive government?
Posted by: Ed Taylor | August 10, 2009, 11:10 am 11:10 am
There is an organization called GOOOH (for Get Out Of Our House), and pronounced like the word go. They sound interesting and have an intriguing plan to evict the 435 politicians from the U.S. House of Representatives.
I find it interesting as I don’t believe that it was our founding fathers’ intent that we have career politicians. If you look at how the senate was laddered from the beginning for continuity and the house to only a two year term it seems likely that the intent was for ordinary citizens to do their term and return home.
Members would not need a retirement plan as they would return to their own position in society, pulling their weight and never developing the elitist ruling class attitude.
What we have is a mockery of that intent. These people love being referred to as “the honorable” or “my distinguished colleague”. And as one in the senate says, “Don’t call me ma’am, I earned the title of senator.”
The average salary on the hill is $172K (not including perks and honorariums) , compare that to an average wage on the street of $45K and you will quickly see why they don’t understand us. And dumb as many of them seem they think they are better than us. Humble when seeking our vote but speak to us like children if they bother to answer our letters.
Posted by: Ed Taylor | August 10, 2009, 3:57 pm 3:57 pm
Those of us who oppose government taker over of healthcare realize that these 1000 or so pages are merely the tip of the iceberg.
We have no clue as to the details or mechanization of implementation. The lines that we have difficulty with as far as pervasiveness may be far more so when interpreted by the myriad of czars, commissions, committees and whomever.
Also realize that if it becomes law it can be revised at will just as IRS codes are. At best the only thing we might ever see would be comments published in the congressional record.
If you have ever attempted to oppose or alter something you read in the congressional record you will know just how hopeless that cause might be.
Now is the only time to protest, and it is working. We are getting under their skin, Obama has activated his OFA to hit the streets and Pelosi is trying to demonize the opposition.
Strange that flag burning is acceptable but opinions opposing Pelosi are “un-American.
Posted by: Ed Taylor | August 10, 2009, 4:24 pm 4:24 pm
“No more gigantic too big to read bills. Why can’t they do this in steps? Start with tort reform. Put a reasonable limit on judgements. Then do something about pre-existing conditions.”
Agreed!! They won’t do this in reasonable, well thought out steps because it’s not about health care reform–it’s about gaining political power over 1/6th of the U.S. economy. If it were about health care reform, we wouldn’t be seeing the same old worn out policies recycled from Hillary’s plan of 15 years ago. Really, if Congress can’t come up with something better with a decade and a half to think about it, what are we paying them for? Same-old same-old is not progressive.
Posted by: Rebecca | August 12, 2009, 2:44 pm 2:44 pm
While having the best health care in the world is obviously very important, on the flip side of that, what good is it when only half the country can afford it
Posted by: Len Sacks | August 12, 2009, 8:30 pm 8:30 pm
As a Brit who is quite proud of his country’s National Health Service, I would like to say that, bar the odd scandal or two, it’s done a pretty good job of keeping people in the UK healthy for over 60 years. Yes, people complain about it, but very few would want to see it go: apart from Daniel Hannan (who’s been on your TVs quite a lot lately), of course!
Posted by: Roy Haworth | August 19, 2009, 4:19 pm 4:19 pm
I will be watching the Healthcare Reform Mtg on Thursday on line and we all should take the opportunity to ask questions and twitter to get the Answers. Lets do our research
Posted by: Vicciann | August 19, 2009, 5:21 pm 5:21 pm