Charlie Cook: Political Landscape Should ‘Terrify’ Democrats
EmailTop Washington Democrats are already worried about next year's midterms.
(In fact, the WH has been quietly reaching out beyond its inner circle to come up with a strategy) Reading Charlie Cook today won't make them feel any better.
No one knows Congressional elections better than Charlie, and he warns that 2010 could be a "wave" election. Here's the money quote from National Journal:
"With 14 months to go before the 2010 midterm election, something could happen to change the outlook for Democrats. However, wave elections, more often than not, start just like this: The president’s ratings plummet; his party loses its advantage on the generic congressional ballot test; the intensity of opposition-party voters skyrockets; his own party’s voters become complacent or even depressed; and independent voters move lopsidedly away," writes Cook. "These were the early-warning signs of past wave elections. Seeing them now should terrify Democrats."
- George Stephanopoulos
Can Mitt Romney Win Conservatives Back? 
Possible Contraception Compromise in D.C.
It would be great to have individuals, Dems or Repubs who would protect the rights of their constituents back in power! Who would read the Constitution that they swore they would defend and uphold its provisions set forth by our founding fathers. It would also be great not to have radical advisors as close to the President as they are now. I believe the American People are learning a lesson that is being taught day by day by this administration. It’s what Mr. Obama calls a teachable event. I cannot wait for the midterm elections next year! Democracy is the will of the people…Government FOR THE PEOPLE, BY THE PEOPLE!
Posted by: claimAmericaBack | September 4, 2009, 9:11 am 9:11 am
t would be great to have individuals, Dems or Repubs who would protect the rights of their constituents back in power! Who would read the Constitution that they swore they would defend and uphold its provisions set forth by our founding fathers. It would also be great not to have radical advisors as close to the President as they are now. I believe the American People are learning a lesson that is being taught day by day by this administration. It’s what Mr. Obama calls a teachable event. I cannot wait for the midterm elections next year! Democracy is the will of the people…Government FOR THE PEOPLE, BY THE PEOPLE!
OH REALLY – BE SPECIFIC GLEN BECK
Posted by: or really | September 4, 2009, 9:17 am 9:17 am
Anyone who is “terrified” of political trends shouldn’t be in politics. More likely this is when the strategists are thinking, now is when the fun starts.
Posted by: Ann | September 4, 2009, 9:24 am 9:24 am
if the democrats say the town hall meetings are staged then I am sure the political analysts are wrong also. I say great, hope they stay in denial for 10 more months and maybe we can still save the country as we know it.
Posted by: onevotefromwi | September 4, 2009, 9:29 am 9:29 am
Politics aside here we are wrangling over health care, spending money we don’t have on stimulus payments to ‘who knows who’ with bills written not by congress but by ‘God knows who’ and not one person apparently concerned about how this country will spur economic investment by the private sector which actually does pay for all this crazy spending. With unemployment still to rise , more people than ever on food stamps and the jobs available that will not support one person letalone families, when are the politicians going to get down and examine why companies are not or cannot reinvestto create jobs and stop this crazy spending we see at all levels of Government.
Posted by: david | September 4, 2009, 9:49 am 9:49 am
There is no doubt, that the Dems have forgotten the basics……providing jobs and income for people.
When either party, loses sight of the basics……their time is up.
Voters vote their pocketbooks, above all else, and 2010, is going to see changes.
Posted by: Rick McDaniel | September 4, 2009, 9:51 am 9:51 am
The “basics” are not “providing jobs and income for people”. The basics are that the government is to protect the liberty of each individual, i.e. protect me from you and you from me, and both of us from the state. Then each individual is free to provide for his or her own job and income, and whatever else he or she might deem worthy of the pursuit of happiness. The whole mess we are in is because people surrender their individual responsibility and sovereignty, thinking the government is responsible for creating jobs and income.
Posted by: Matthew | September 4, 2009, 10:06 am 10:06 am
Thank You Matthew, well said. It’s because of our government run schools that most people think like Rick. And then there are those that think like Rick because all they care about is what’s in it for them.
Rick, Which one are you!
Posted by: Joe Eckhardt | September 4, 2009, 1:14 pm 1:14 pm
rick is where he is supposed to be and where a majority of americans have been fo 200 years.JOBS JOBS JOBS. take care of that and the rest will follow.ive seen too much of the VAN JONES THINKING with this congress and they are out of touch with mainstream america.
Posted by: catman | September 4, 2009, 1:32 pm 1:32 pm
Matthew, well said.
Posted by: deanbob | September 4, 2009, 7:31 pm 7:31 pm
The Democrats have to defend 100 seats in the house elections that the Republicans have a registration advantage in or where the Democrats have less than a 3% point advantage. Over 70 of these 100 seats either have a Republican advantage or a single point advantage for the Democrats. This is a mine field for the Democrats and goes a long way toward understanding why support among Democrats for healthcare reform is crumbling.
Rasmussen currently has the Republicans with a 7 point advantage in the generic ballot for 2010. This compares to a 7-8 point advantage for Democrats in November of 2008. NPR has also shown a huge shift; an 11 point advantage during the 2008 election has turned into a 1 point Republican advantage among all voters (this is the most advantageous polling method for Democrats).
What does all of this mean? In all likelihood we could see a seventy seat gain for Republicans in 2010. This is stunning when you consider how unorganized the Republicans are right now. Obama has become the greatest recruiting tool the Republican party has ever had.
Posted by: Jim | September 4, 2009, 11:10 pm 11:10 pm
You better believe it…as a lifelong democrat I woke up one day and don’t recognize my party…it has been hijacked by communist who are obsessed with power and hate…thats not what I’m about…I don’t want socialism but a watchdog government that helps the littel guy and preserves our freedoms and free enterprise system…thats what gives us the American dream and makes us exceptional…these people are not democrats but lunatics that hate white people and America…its time to change the land scape and put em out of work so they can go back to their shady meetings and organize again
Posted by: phillysmart | September 5, 2009, 1:00 am 1:00 am
As a democrat I will be pulling the tsraight R ticket…at least they don’t want to take my money and give it to the leeches
Posted by: phillysmart | September 5, 2009, 1:02 am 1:02 am
Cannot find one story on the ‘green czar” on this site.
Posted by: survivor53 | September 5, 2009, 10:01 am 10:01 am
Good analysis,George. Its time they pay for their excess and error in governing.
Posted by: austin | September 5, 2009, 10:18 am 10:18 am
The pendulum always swings back and forth; mainly because people want and expect quick fixes to every problem, when there really aren’t any easy answers. The Republicans held sway for years and never did anything to curb the deficit, not to mention never doing anything to help the average American or improve the overall quality of life for it’s citizens. If the Democrats lose seats, so be it. The reactionary right will not sit any better with most people for long. President Obama is doing his level best. at least he has an agenda for domestic concerns. That’s more than you can say for any Republican in recent memory.
Posted by: Phoenix lady | September 5, 2009, 10:11 pm 10:11 pm
Now, as always in my lifetime, going to the voting booth is a choice between the lessor of 2 evils. We should never forget that it is the republicans who have led us into this mess. Yes, Bill Clinton aided them in many ways but the Bush policies and republican controlled leadership of both houses with their marriage to the corporate structure have pushed this nation so far right I hardly recognize it.
Once can only hope that the electorate will remember that the economic colapse was a result of George W. Bush and his allowing his corporate donators write the legislation which led us the the edge of this precipice. “Way to go Brownie, nice one Alberto, thanks General Haliburton.
When I took ROTC in college we learned why mercenaries would never be used by this nation. Profiting from war was considered unAmerican! Thank you Blackwater for showing us “it ain’t so.”
(sic)(sick)
Posted by: YellowDog | September 6, 2009, 8:39 pm 8:39 pm
I have no idea what will be the situation in 2010. I do know that any time I read a comment from someone claiming to be a “lifelong Democrat” who is now switching to support the likes of John Boehner and Eric Cantor, I think that person is either seriously derisional or lying about their party affiliation.
Anyway, it’s not Democrats Dems have to worry about, other than the turnout issue, it’s Independents.
And I’m not sure that they are all that motivated to put Republicans back in power. Especially since the GOP continues to define itself by the most repressive and extreme wings of the party.
Obama just has to remind them- by legislation too – that he’s on the right fiscal track and the GOP continues to be the party of cultural extremists.
Posted by: Sam | September 6, 2009, 9:06 pm 9:06 pm
Any party that would elect Pelosi & company as their leaders needs a good cleaning.
Posted by: Jeff | September 7, 2009, 11:28 am 11:28 am
Dear ABC NEWS: The extremists of America seem to have the greater voice with such news sources as yourself. I am under the EXTREME understanding over the past few years that we no longer have a “responsible” news media that brings balanced information to the people of this country. It is too un-newsworthy and unprofitable to bring the correct story coming from the greater masses of the middle class that want real change. What we do get instead is the sort of bull that has been put forth in this news article. Why is the news media giving so much voice to these extremists when the greater population needs real solutions instead of riots in our public forums and extremist hate-talk about all that is not of the extremist agenda. How do we get the attention of the mass media and bring the news of constructive nation-building back into the picture? I don’t want to scare people but if we keep going down the path that we are presently on there are going to be a lot of people hurt if the extremists are not managed in a constructive manner. Giving them less voice by being professional newsmen is a good first step. If news is all about profits and extremist sensationalism that increases profits than where do the greater masses of America go to get the real news. America needs multiple “responsible” news sources and ABC news need to revamp it’s present strategy to help meet that need. I do not see that with such news articles as this. This is poor journalism at best. There was a time in journalism when we ignored the greasy underbelly of the extremists out there unless they endangered others. In present times journalists are helping the extremists make this world less safe by causing more hate and far-less constructive work. Are we taking the steep and fast downhill road to oblivion in this country? It scares me, God help us, it really scares me. Please ABC news, start bringing us constructive news, not the destructive ones such as these. Learn to ignore the minority of extremists and pay attention to the greater needs of most of the non-extremists of America. PLEASE!
Posted by: dlboggan | September 7, 2009, 3:01 pm 3:01 pm
I’ve made my choice for the mid-terms already…
1) No one with a (D) after their name
2) No one with an (R) after their name
3) No one who has been in the Congress for more than 2 terms.
It’s PAST time to show BOTH parties the door. As far as I’m concerned, any candidate’s declaration that he/she is affiliated with a political “party” is now the political version of the “kiss of death.”
I want representatives who are INDEPENDENT of political party, INDEPENDENT of thought; INDEPENDENT of obligations to impart “favors” on special interests; and INDEPENDENT of the ignorance exhibited by the past several Administrations – and which has never been MORE evident than in the current Administration.
Posted by: Laughing__All__The__Way | September 8, 2009, 1:47 am 1:47 am
“No one knows Congressional elections better than Charlie, and he warns that 2010 could be a “wave” election.”
Actually someone does…his name is Larry Sabato..called the 2006 and 2008 elections perfectly.
Posted by: George | February 19, 2010, 4:51 pm 4:51 pm