Obama’s Strong Disapproval
EmailA debate’s alight on why disapproval of Barack Obama has become so unusually strong. The answer: It hasn’t. Three of the last four presidents have seen this level of strong unpopularity – one of them faster; another, far deeper.
After eight months in office, 31 percent of Americans in the latest ABC/Post poll strongly disapprove of Obama’s performance as president. Bill Clinton reached the same level of strong disapproval in five months. And while it took George W. Bush longer to get there, he traveled much farther into strong disapproval, and languished there for years.
Nor is Obama’s strong disapproval proportionately worse than the levels seen by his immediate predecessor. At its peak, 81 percent of people who disapproved of Bush felt strongly about it. On average across his second term, 77 percent of Bush’s disapproval was strongly felt; on average across his presidency, 69 percent. For Obama it’s currently 72 percent.
Part of the recent discussion has touched upon Obama’s position as the first African-American president; former President Jimmy Carter went there yesterday, saying: “There is an inherent feeling among many in this country that an African-American should not be president.”
Our pre-election polling did find a significant chunk of the country both racially insensitive and ill-disposed to Obama. But we also found another, significant group that looked well-disposed to Obama on racial grounds. And he was, of course, elected, with about the same share of support from whites as is customary for a Democratic presidential candidate. (Though it’s fair to wonder, as I did here, why he didn’t do better.)
Also note that at his peak in April 62 percent of whites approved of Obama’s job performance, and in January 76 percent expressed a personally favorable opinion of him. It’s hard to see how those who’ve since changed their minds may be racially motivated now, but weren’t then.
The tone of criticism is another matter, and one that’s hard to measure. But in a CNN poll, 85 percent called it inappropriate for Rep. Joe Wilson, R-S.C., to have shouted, “You lie!” during Obama’s address to a joint session of Congress last week. That hardly seems an endorsement of this sort of invective.
As the July incident involving Prof. Henry Louis Gates Jr. underscored, racial sensitivities remain a real issue in this country, and as we’ve reported separately, blacks’ experience of racial discrimination is widespread.
But there are other factors. One is the increasingly ideological nature of political partisanship in the last 20 or so years, with the polarization that produces. Moreover, there’s abundant evidence that views of the president are informed by his work on specific issues – above all the dreadful economy, but also the huge deficit, doubts about the war in Afghanistan and the contentious health care debate. As he’s taken ownership of these, his popularity has declined, precisely as one would expect.
I continue to say the best analogy is to the last president to take office in the teeth of a recession: Ronald Reagan declined from a peak of 73 percent approval not long after the start of his first term to 48 percent a year later. Obama’s direction is the same; 9.7 percent unemployment will do that.
Indeed the economy continued to stumble through the first half of Reagan’s first term, to the point where, with unemployment peaking at 10.8 percent in December 1982, 31 percent of Americans strongly disapproved of his job performance – precisely the same as Obama’s strong disapproval today.
This week’s anniversary of the global financial meltdown makes the point worth keeping in mind. In the midst of the heated health care debate, shouted comments from the floor of the House and the ever-present subject of race, it’s another factor that’s likeliest by far to spell Obama’s future: The course of the nation’s economy.
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Racism, like terrorism, liberalism, conservatism, is an abstraction. Abstractions can’t be conquered, they can’t surrender, nor can they be objectively confirmed or denied.
We are in “if it quacks like a duck [or racist]” territory on this issue.
We’ve come a long way since Lincoln concluded his first inaugural thus:
“We are not enemies, but friends. We must not be enemies. Though passion may have strained it must not break our bonds of affection. The mystic chords of memory, stretching from every battlefield and patriot grave to every living heart and hearthstone all over this broad land, will yet swell the chorus of the Union, when again touched, as surely they will be, by the better angels of our nature.”
Posted by: Nat Ehrlich | September 16, 2009, 12:20 pm 12:20 pm
So it’s fair to ask then why the media and so many commentators are wringing their hands over Obama’s “free fall” in the polls? He is still performing slightly better than recent presidents and has enjoyed a significant bump/stabilization in the polls and on the issues that the media has decided to ignore.
Posted by: matt | September 16, 2009, 1:02 pm 1:02 pm
The issue is not about racism, but rather about what is good for the people of this country, and Obama’s view is quite different from the average citizen.
Obama thinks too much like Jimmy Carter did……that social programs can solve the ills of the world, at any cost. As we saw with Carter, that isn’t possible. It simply bankrupts the country.
Yet Obama continues to ignore what is bothering people the most…..no jobs. Of course his popularity is going to plummet. He is doing nothing to address the main issue affecting people, right now.
Carter, by the way, was so blatantly obvious in his politically motivated “racism” charge, against Wilson, that he made himself look like the proverbial idiot. Just another Democrat, blindly making a phony case against the opposition, that is nothing but a lie.
Posted by: Rick McDaniel | September 16, 2009, 2:42 pm 2:42 pm
I am damn sick and tired of Republicans like Mr. McDaniel pontificating on what the ‘average American’ feels. I am an average American – and you do not speak for me. This man was elected by a majority of voters, and he has a 58% approval rating in the last poll I saw -it is YOU who is in the minority, sir. Not US.
Posted by: ann burns | September 16, 2009, 11:51 pm 11:51 pm
Obama was elected to office with a major assist by his “base” the so-called (but anything but) MSM. They have a tremendous amount of dwindling credibility in his “programs” Once the so-called MSM wake up and report that “average Americans” sincerely believe our hapless Federal Government IS the problem and NOT the solution to everything as Obama sincerely believes ….health care so-called “reform” is one example, all bets are off. He’ll be in a free-fall like GW and he’ll never recover …. just like GW.
Posted by: Larry Miller | September 17, 2009, 8:40 am 8:40 am
“If you want a good test for racism go back to the speach by the defense attorney (Matthew McConaughey) in the movie “A Time To Kill”. In order to bypass the racism of the jury, he asked them to imagine how’d they feel he the young girl that was raped was white. Well ask yourself Mr. Langer, in the 2008 election 96% of blacks voted for the least qualified candidate in history of the same race… 96%, without as much as a peep out of you and the rest of the media. Now ask yourself what you would have said if that 96% and 0bama were white…. Before you go throwing the race card around look in the mirror buddy.”
The problem with this analogy is that, historically, Blacks % of the vote is ALWAYS high for the democratic Presidential nominee. Mondale received 90%, Dukakis received 90%, Clinton received 85% twice, Gore received 95%, Kerry received 93%. What’s also absurd about you claim is that, since blacks have been given the right to vote, they have ALWAYS voted for white candidates in high numbers, so you ridiculous assertion is nonsense. Racism does play part – this is still one of the most racist countries in the world – but you folks always want to dismiss it and then spout this nonsense.
Posted by: QueSpr90 | September 17, 2009, 10:14 am 10:14 am
Racism in America. I think that was made obvious during the election did you miss the women saying she “would not hire a black man regardless of his qualification” and she was no mu mu wearing redneck. Also after having George Bush a average student at best trying to run the country, next up is John McCain a C student who I must admit was my childhood hero (I grew up watching Vietnam) running against a graduate from Columbia and Harvard and a professor at the University of Chicago.
Many of the good ole boys did not see any reason to change and get some brains in the white house.
They just want a white man. You can be sure that every black person in America knows nothing has changed. If anything it’s worse. Obama can say ‘health care for everybody and a chicken in every pot’
and of course even the starving rednecks will cry foul. If you have any doubts come to Milwaukee
where racism is policy in many companies. Or you can watch Fox news.
Posted by: Doug | September 17, 2009, 11:26 am 11:26 am
People are just dumb the media says attack and like zombies they do it.
Posted by: Doug | September 17, 2009, 11:29 am 11:29 am
Jimmy Carter has spoken on this topic twice over two days, and both times said SOME of the critics are motivates AT LEAST IN PART by race. He did not say ALL of Obama’s opponents are racist. However, when polls by many organizations (Pew, Gallup, etc.) consistently show that 9-10% of Americans say they would never vote for a black person for president, and just about three times that amount strongly oppose Obama, its not hard to do the math. Probably 1/3 of his opponents are motivated, in part, by race. Where else do you think those 9-10% of people went? “Undecided?”
So that would also mean 2/3 of Obama-haters are not so racist.
As for Wilson, his vociferous attacks on Strom Thurmond’s half-black illegitimate daughter, defense of the confederate flag, and espousal of Robert E. Lee as a great American hero do make it reasonable for many to assume that this man is just a wee bit racist.
Posted by: jason | September 17, 2009, 12:37 pm 12:37 pm
It’s not ALL about racism a bit more than half of it for sure is nothing but.
I’ve heard more stupid cracks and idiotic comparisons about this President some so inane I wonder at the speaker’s straight face.
I remember what people said about Bush when outrage about the war was running high – and I remember the republicans calling us unAmerican and treasonous.
So it’s disingenous for the republicans who have been calling Obama a nazi/marxist/socialist to complain when people label them racist. They asked for it. The stupid Kenya stories need to stop. The stupid Mafia stories are ridiculous.
Posted by: trueblue | September 23, 2009, 12:06 am 12:06 am
Doug, I must disagree with you regarding Obama’s education. You can’t prove a thing you said, and obviously neither can Obama! Or is he too ashamed of his own grades?
Posted by: lyineyes1956 | September 28, 2009, 10:34 am 10:34 am
blahblahblah…Polls are nothing more than an excuse to write about one’s own agenda. Depends on where you poll, who you poll and how accurate the data. I don’t believe anything I read in these blogs about polling. Any intelligent person can figure out those that hate Obama will publish polls that are derived from that demographic. Those that like Obama will publish polls in favor of him. The truth of the matter is there are those that will hate him not for what he has done or can do, but for the fact that he’s black, or biracial.It doesn’t take a genius to figure out this country was in deep doodoo when he took office. And the naysayers were out for blood within the first week. I’m willing to wait and give it time. I lived through 6 years of the recession of the eighties. I can wait this one out too.
Posted by: Bea | October 3, 2009, 9:43 am 9:43 am