Peterson Report Shows Mixed Results on Health Reform Impact

By Nitya

Sep 9, 2009 7:44am

The Pete G. Peterson Foundation is weighing in heavily with a good news/bad news analysis run by the Lewin Group that projects the impact of House health care bills over the next two decades.

The study, being released later this morning, finds the current legislation would expand the number of Americans with health insurance coverage, but with expanding costs for individuals, employers and the government.

The study estimates that through 2029, 41 million new Americans would obtain health insurance through newly created programs, including 21 million who would be covered in the House bills' proposed public plan. Medicaid enrollment would increase by 10 million, they project.

The study estimates that of those 41 million, almost 30 million people would gain coverage by 2011, a 60 percent reduction of those currently without health insurance. Without reforms, the study projects 49.2 million people (about 16 percent of the population) would be without health insurance by 2011.

For families, savings would vary depending on economic status, those with higher incomes, lower health care needs and younger members would end up paying more for their health care.

To offset higher employer-sponsored cost, they estimate that wage growth would slow. Small businesses would benefit from tax credits.

The bottom line: How does this impact the federal budget? According to the study, reforming the system would meet Obama’s goal of paying for itself over the next 10 years. However, after that period an estimated $1 trillion dollars would be added to the federal deficit during the second 10 year period.

Walker will release the results at 10 a.m. You can read the full report HERE.

- George Stephanopoulos

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