The Note: Public Option Backers Prepare for Setbacks

ABC News’ Rick Klein reports: All President Obama has is a few international audiences and incidents to handle — between Tehran and Copenhagen, Baghdad and Kabul. (And soon a certain resident of Wasilla re-joins the fray, too.)

But the showdowns most likely to define his presidency this week will come in committee hearing rooms on Capitol Hill.

There’s no more putting off or pretending to ignore the major areas of disagreement in health care reform proposals. Movement for movement’s sake no longer gets anyone very far.

Senate Finance Committee deliberations have mirrored the broader debate over health care in at least one critical aspect: The tough choices have been saved for later.

Later starts now. Tuesday brings votes on the public option — the outcome of which won’t change the final legislation (the Republicans plus the centrists almost certainly have enough votes on the committee to keep a robust public plan out).

Yet these fights will escalate the political battles that will surround the final push — and even narrow defeats could help progressives in their final push, once everyone’s on record.
 
Over in the House, a delayed timeline for a final bill comes down to the pay-fors — again, not determinative, but critical in defining the chances of success.

(And in Copenhagen, where the International Olympic Committee awaits its first presentation from a US president, and the first lady flying over Tuesday night, we’re about to see what that celebrity thing is all about…)

On health care: “This week’s intensive effort will provide the starkest display yet of the political fault lines the party faces as lawmakers search for a path to agreement. And it could help define what any compromise would look like,” Janet Hook reports in the Los Angeles Times.

“In the Senate, members of the finance committee will for the first time formally debate the public plan, which would compete with private insurers to help ensure affordable coverage for all. In the House, Democratic leaders are aiming to forge a consensus within their party over how to pay for the massive initiative — by taxing the wealthy, taxing insurance companies that offer high-end plans, or both.”

“Tuesday’s debate is expected to pit Democratic liberals against moderates,” the AP’s Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar reports. “Although the public plan isn’t expected to get a majority of the panel, supporters say at least they’ll know where everybody stands.”

“The prospects for passage [in the Finance Committee] appear dim, but supporters hope they can build momentum by debating the issue now and holding a roll-call vote of committee members under the gaze of Democratic constituencies like labor unions, which strongly support the public option,” The New York Times’ Katharine Q. Seelye writes.

How will the public-option crowd respond to a legislative setback in the Finance Committee? (And you thought the ad wars were overwhelming before?)

Roll Call’s Emily Pierce: “Some Senators say they can’t vote for any bill without it. Just as many say they can’t vote for anything with it. And somewhere in between, President Barack Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) are trying to figure out a plan to have it both ways.”

Sen. Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark., among a small handful of moderates in the spotlight: “Some Democrats are hoping to add a government-sponsored ‘public’ health insurance option into the bill and looking to Mrs. Lincoln for support. Republicans hope she can be a swing vote against it,” Jennifer Haberkorn and Stephen Dinan report in the Washington Times.

Playing for final outcomes: “The bill that is signed into law by the President will be a good, strong, robust public option,” said Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., who — along with Sen. Jay Rockefeller, D-W.Va. — is offering amendments to include a public option, per the New York Daily News’ Michael McAuliff and Ken Bazinet.

Closing a chapter? “Do Republicans matter as Congress digs more deeply into the details of writing health care legislation? Probably not,” McClatchy’s David Lightman reports. “The chances are good that the committee will approve key provisions with few, if any, Republican votes.”

Consequences of missed deadlines? “Obama lost credibility with his deadline-that-never-was, and now he threatens to lose some more with his posturing toward Iran,” Richard Cohen writes in his Washington Post column.

One of the complications that just hasn’t gone away: “As if it were not complicated enough, the debate over health care in Congress is becoming a battlefield in the fight over abortion,” David D. Kirkpatrick writes in The New York Times. “Abortion opponents in both the House and the Senate are seeking to block the millions of middle- and lower-income people who might receive federal insurance subsidies to help them buy health coverage from using the money on plans that cover abortion. And the abortion opponents are getting enough support from moderate Democrats that both sides say the outcome is too close to call. . . . Mr. Obama has promised for months that the health care overhaul would not provide federal money to pay for elective abortions, but White House officials have declined to spell out what he means.”

Another GOP argument gets its airing: RNC Chairman Michael Steele will hold a press conference call Tuesday at 11 a.m. ET to “discuss the president’s proposed health care taxes.”

And another one in the making: “The Senate majority leader, Harry Reid of Nevada, has secured a special deal protecting his state against the costs of expanding Medicaid under one of the major health care bills moving through Congress,” Robert Pear reports in The New York Times. “Mr. Baucus has modified the bill to spare Nevada and three other states, and Mr. Reid, who faces a potentially difficult race for re-election next year, is taking credit for getting a ‘major increase’ in federal money for his state.”

Michael Moore’s new film makes its DC debut Tuesday night, and first, at 11 am ET, he shoots for some headlines: Moore speaks at a news conference “to challenge President Barack Obama and Democratic members of Congress to get tough — really tough — on health care reform,” Politico’s Martin Kady II reports.

Americans United for Change tosses another volley in the Humana debate, with a rally at the company’s Florida office, a press conference, and a new TV ad. “This year Halloween comes early for health insurance giant Humana,” says the new ad. “Humana is sending letters to its senior citizen policy holders intended to frighten them into opposing health insurance reform. The letters say health insurance reform threatens their Medicare benefits. AARP says: that’s just not true. But we shouldn’t be surprised. Whether it’s the insurance companies or their Republican allies, the case against health insurance reform always gets down to one word: Boo!”

Afghanistan is back in the news: President Obama meets with NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen in the Oval Office at 11:30 am ET.

Rasmussen, in a speech Monday: “NATO will stay for as long as it takes to succeed,” he said, per Bloomberg’s Viola Gienger. “But that cannot mean forever.”

It’s class photo day at the Supreme Court, with pictures of the newly constituted court taken at 9 am ET.

Feeling confident (about one venture or the other)? Remember when President Obama said this, two weeks ago: “I would make the case in Copenhagen personally if I weren’t so firmly committed to making real the promise of quality, affordable health care for every American.”

Well… “Evidently, his commitment to health care is no longer quite so time consuming,” Peter Baker writes in The New York Times. “Mr. Obama risks looking parochial at a time of enormous challenges and, perhaps even worse, risks a major international embarrassment if the committee rebuffs him and rejects Chicago in favor of Rio de Janeiro, Tokyo or Madrid.”

“Think of it as another Olympic event,” ABC’s Diane Sawyer said on “Good Morning America” Tuesday.

ABC’s Yunji de Nies talked to Michelle Obama, who leave s for Copenhagen Tuesday night: “She told me that the gloves are off,” de Nies said on “GMA.” “Mrs. Obama said her presentation will be very personal — and that just might work.”

“I think Chicago will pull this off,” USA Today columnist Christine Brennan said on “GMA.”

“The trip is a political gamble for the president, who is taking time from pushing his health-care overhaul, grappling with revelations about the Iranian nuclear program and refining strategy for the war in Afghanistan,” The Wall Street Journal’s Elizabeth Williamson reports.

The AP’s Julie Pace: “If the U.S. loses, he still might get points for trying. But he would be visibly tied to a failed effort — and to the spending of political capital on an endeavor many Americans might consider unworthy of so much of a president’s time and energy. This is something Obama can ill afford when the public already shows signs of fatigue with his major efforts on so many fronts at once, many so far unfulfilled.”

Sen. Kit Bond, R-Mo.: “It’s baffling that the president has made time to pitch the Olympics in Copenhagen, appear on Letterman and every other station except the Food Network and Fox, but not to talk to our top commander on the ground” in Afghanistan.

On the other hand: “I think his presence makes the likelihood of a Chicago win very good indeed. Had he not gone, we almost certainly would have lost,” said former Gov. Mitt Romney, R-Mass., who ran the Salt Lake games in 2002, per the Chicago Tribune’s Philip Hersh and Katherine Skiba.

Valerie Jarrett tells ABC News’ Sunlen Miller, Ann Compton, and Yunji de Nies: “We worked very closely with Chicago 2016 and we have developed a strategy for how to get us to the number of votes we need to win.”

Pressure on First Lady Michelle Obama: “For the first time in a long time, Mrs. Obama has taken on an assignment where she is under pressure to deliver,” Lynn Sweet reports for Politics Daily. “Her speech, I am told, will draw on her life growing up on the South Side of Chicago, near where many of the Olympic venues are planned. What I don’t know is if Mrs. Obama will be wearing the Chicago team uniform. Chicago’s very own Hart Schaffner Marx is stitching suits for the men in the U.S. Olympic delegation, while Maria Pinto, the Chicago designer whose clothes Mrs. Obama wears, is outfitting the women.”

She finished her homework early: “Sarah Palin has finished her memoir just four months after the book deal was announced. Her publisher says the release date has been moved up from the spring to Nov. 17,” the AP’s Hillel Italie reports. “The 400-page book is the first for Palin, who has been an object of fascination since Republican Sen. John McCain chose her as his running mate during his 2008 presidential bid. The book will be called ‘Going Rogue: An American Life.’ ”

“Copy-editing and fact-checking are now underway in a race to meet the crash publishing schedule, which has been accelerated four or five months because of the huge anticipated demand,” Politico’s Mike Allen reports.

Story you’ll read again (and again) by the end of 2010: “House Democrats see the midterm elections as a referendum on President Barack Obama and will insist that he become heavily involved in their efforts to retain a congressional majority,” The Hill’s Reid Wilson reports. “Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Chairman Chris Van Hollen (Md.) told The Hill that Democrats will be in a ‘much better position’ if the administration helps defend the party’s record and that voters have to hear that defense ‘directly from the president.’ ”

On the Senate side: “This White House has been taking steps to buy what amounts to political insurance, working first to get to 60 Democratic senators, then trying to keep that number and now working to expand it,” Politico’s Jonathan Martin reports.

In Massachusetts — a Kennedy cousin weighs in: “Stephen E. Smith, nephew of the late U.S. Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, is backing U.S. Rep. Michael Capuano (D-Somerville) in the heated U.S. Senate race — calling Capuano the best candidate while raising concerns about Attorney General Martha Coakley’s early scramble for the seat,” per the Boston Herald’s Hillary Chabot.

Tracking T-Paw: “Despite his rising national profile, [Gov. Tim] Pawlenty’s job approval rating among Minnesotans stands at 49 percent, similar to his rating in April. Last September Pawlenty’s approval rating was 54 percent, while two years ago at this time it was 59 percent,” per the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s Rachel E. Stassen-Berger and Pat Doyle.

Bad taste: “The Secret Service is investigating the origins of a poll that appeared on Facebook that asked whether President Obama should be killed,” ABC’s Pierre Thomas reports. “Posted over the weekend, the poll was removed by Facebook after the Secret Service received a tip and contacted the company, which was not aware of the survey, sources tell ABC News.”

New charge: Liz Sidoti has been named AP’s national political writer. From Ron Fournier’s e-mail: “Enter Liz. She will cover politics from the ground up as well as the top down, writing not just about our readers and viewers but for them — holding candidates and elected officials accountable. She will help the Washington bureau work with reporters and editors across the company to produce the richest, deepest political coverage around.”

A personal note: This is my first day back at work with Jack Herman Klein, born Sept. 23, 2009, in my life. Thanks to my friends, colleagues, and readers for their love, support, and understanding during this special time. (And for the record, I am waking up earlier than him — at least for now.)

For a first glimpse of Baby Jack, from ABCNews.com’s “Top Line,” click HERE.

The Kicker:

“We’ll — you can call Tommy on Saturday.” — White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs, on what happens if President Obama’s trip to the Netherlands doesn’t win Chicago the 2016 Olympics.

“Twenty-four members of congress sent me emails; they all think I’m crazy.” — Tom DeLay, after his second appearance on “Dancing with the Stars.” (He tied with Kathy Ireland for the lowest score – 6-6-6 — of the night.)

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