Administration Says Report Will Likely Show Karzai with Less Than 50% of the Vote

ABC News' Jake Tapper and Sunlen Miller report:

President Obama is concerned about how Afghanistan’s President Hamid Karzai will react to the United Nations-backed Electoral Complains Commission’s ruling which administration sources say will likely show that Karzai actually received less than 50% of the vote in Afghanistan’s election, once fraudulent ballots are removed from the final tally.

The results of the ECC’s report, and the likely subsequent run-off election, has complicated the administration’s ongoing review to determine the strategy going forward of the region.

The US Commander in Afghanistan, Gen. Stanley McChrystal has recommended sending tens of thousands of more troops into the country to closely patter in a counter-insurgency and nation building strategy. President Obama has sat down with his national security team five times over the last month, huddled in deep review for a strategy going forward in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The White House is worried about partnering with Karzai if he is not seen as a legitimate leader of the country, as one of the key components of the strategy is nation building with Afghanistan.

“What’s most important,” President Obama said at the G-20 summit in Pittsburgh last month, “is that there is a sense of legitimacy in Afghanistan among the Afghan people for their government. If there is not, that makes our task much more difficult.”

In an interview this week with ABC’s Diane Sawyer, Ambassador Peter Galbraith said he would neither advise the President to ramp up the efforts in Afghanistan nor withdrawal. Galbraith was publically fired earlier this month as deputy head of the United Nations Mission in Afghanistan because he indicated the recent  election in Afghanistan was a fraud, with as many as 30% of the votes faked.

“In the absence of having a credible Afghan partner — that is to say, a government that is — enjoys the support of the people and is accepted by those that did not vote for the man who emerges as president, it makes no sense to ramp up,” Galbraith said, “On the other hand, we cannot afford to pull out. “

US Ambassador to Afghanistan Karl Eikenberrry has urged President Karzai to cooperate with the pending recommendation for a run-off with his main opponent Abdullah Abdullah. 

The international community is already preparing for this scenario.

“I think the ballots have been printed and certainly the military, through NATO and through our own troops, is looking at how you would secure such a second round,” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told CNN today.

The ECC will likely issue their report on Saturday. Administration sources tell ABC News that while there are promising signs out of Kabul of a commitment to a credible election process from some players in Afghanistan – meaning a runoff or some form of credible unity government — they have yet to hear a response from the most important person –Karzai himself.

So far President Karzai has been resistant to considering a run-off.

“The election was good and fair and worthy of praise, not of scorn, which the election received from the international media,” Karzai told ABC’s Diane Sawyer this week, “That makes me very unhappy. That rather makes me angry.”

Another issue compounding the problem is the harsh Afghanistan winter that is quickly approaching. A runoff would have to happen quickly, or be delayed until the Spring. Another option that is being floated is the possibility of a unity government with Karzai and allies of Abdullah. So far, there has been no indication from Karzai about his feeling on this proposal either.

You can read more about this HERE.

- Jake Tapper and Sunlen Miller