Health Care Odds Top 75 percent: WH Happy (For Now)
Yesterday's CBO report is the best health care news the WH has had in weeks (even before we know if it was enough to secure Olympia Snowe's vote)
It reinforced a pronounced psychological shift on Capitol Hill — that passing something this year is a foregone conclusion. The big questions are when, not if, and what the final bill looks like
Even Karl Rove seems to concede the case in this morning's WSJ by pointing out how he thinks passing health care will hurt Democrats.
I'm not prepared to call game over, but odds of passing now seem above 75 percent to me. Here are the big remaining obstacles:
Strong House opposition to the excise tax on cadillac health plans (if you lose the excise tax, do you lose the deficit reduction?).
Lingering disputes over public option (if Snowe votes no on Finance bill will inclusion of co-ops be her reason?) (Will the latest hot idea — giving states the ability to "opt-out" of a public option — fly?).
The mismatch between when the tax increases and Medicare cuts start to bite and when insurance exchanges and subsidies start to provide benefits. Can more of the benefits be front-loaded without losing deficit neutrality?
Here's my conversation with Diane on GMA (we covered Afghanistan too):
- George Stephanopoulos
Email
Sen. DeMint: GOP Race Could Go Until Convention
Obama Avoids Questions on Contraception Rule
It took them enough tries to whittle it down to this deficit neutral (actually deficit reducing) point. Now the real question is if they’ve thrown the baby out with the bath water. If there is nothing in their to address the lack of real competition in the health insurance market, then it is going to end up another corporate giveaway like the Republican’s prescription drug benefit.
Posted by: jhw539 | October 8, 2009, 9:29 am 9:29 am
So, let’s get on with it now! The American people have been waiting for too long already.
Posted by: jmb | October 8, 2009, 9:47 am 9:47 am
This doesn’t square with the polls of American citizens who are actually happy with their own current health care (80%). Competition is good and market choices are good and this is what we have today; however, Obama is quoted as being in favor of a single payer system. Government takeover of health care is the ultimate aim of this administration – period. These are Obama’s words not mine. If this bill is the first step to get him there Obama is fine with that as long as it gets us to Government health care in his opinion.
Posted by: EPU | October 8, 2009, 9:49 am 9:49 am
There will nothing worth passing that gets passed.
Whatever gets passed, will be too little, too bogged down, and will result in no cost savings, whatsoever.
It is just more Dems, going through the motions, and wasting money.
Posted by: Rick McDaniel | October 8, 2009, 10:39 am 10:39 am
The Republican Party will not support any initiatives from the Obama Administration. Why? Their duty to serve is greatly overshadowed by their contempt for the Administration and President Obama himself.
The racism in the GOP, particularly from the South, is so glaringly obvious.
How sad for a group of alleged adult professionals to ignore the needs of the populous. How about putting aside bias and self-serving attitudes, and thinking about our country for a change?
Posted by: saftgek | October 8, 2009, 10:51 am 10:51 am
This will NOT be deficit REDUCING!!! — What bull!! — The CBO gives the estimate for 10 years based on what they know now (which will change, bet on it), but the SECOND ten yrs show a deficit!! — Is anyone saying this outloud?? — SAVE THE DOLLAR NOW, worry about health care after we save the economy!!!!
Posted by: MidwestValues | October 8, 2009, 10:52 am 10:52 am
This will pass as long as there is nothing resembling a public option. Co-ops are the same thing. Funny the dems could have won this debate had they included tort reform in the package and probably been able to get a public option. Since this bill will do so little to reform the system, it should pass. Each side will claim victory while essentially accomplishing nothing. The dems protected the drug companies and the attorneys and the Republicans protected the insurance company. Nothing changed at all but at least we can now move on to the economy and the 2 wars.
Posted by: Bob | October 8, 2009, 10:52 am 10:52 am
saftgek — Get real, and get the facts, not Olbermann quotes!!!
Posted by: MidwestValues | October 8, 2009, 10:55 am 10:55 am
As has been pointed out, this will do nothing to actually reduce the actual costs of health care or keep them from going up. Spreadng the costs out will still have the taxpayer carrying the costs of those who can’t or won’t pay for it. In a year people will see that except for the added costs of more government pocket-picking this was all much ado about nothing.
Posted by: Publius | October 8, 2009, 10:55 am 10:55 am
It’s quite humorous that with all the special interest groups,lobbyists,critics, etc. that the health in health care seems to be the least important variable. If it were then it would be both ludicrous as well as hypocritical to justify denying 30+ million health care. Those in opposition to reform are establishing having health care a privilege for those who happen to fit the profile of a certain soci0-economic class. I pray that YOU don’t fall from grace and have to experience what it feels like t suffer!
Posted by: Regge Odom | October 8, 2009, 10:59 am 10:59 am
So how does this keep health costs down?
It does not. It adds people on the rolls
at the expense of everyone else. The
penalties and fees on the insurance
companies and drug companies will be
passed onto the consumer. They keep
saying that the republicans don’t add
any good suggestions. How about tort
reform and setting up the natural way
of competition thru opening up the
ability to shop for coverage ?? Its
quickly dismissed without any consideration. How this all has been
done is a disgrace and those in office
who go along with this trash will pay
the price in the next election.
Posted by: wis134 | October 8, 2009, 11:00 am 11:00 am
Taxes going up!! — They can call it anything they want — In the Baucus Bill, all 50 state budgets will be permanently increased by expanding Medicaid by some 11 million new people!!! — This is shifting costs to the States and US!! —- The “Medical Device Tax” that would add 3 percent to the costs of most medical equipment, which will increase costs to US!!
Posted by: MidwestValues | October 8, 2009, 11:02 am 11:02 am
unless it includes a viable public option it’s pretty meaningless.
Posted by: justsane | October 8, 2009, 11:02 am 11:02 am
Regge Odum — The bills are changing all the time — but up until a month ago, the Congressional Budget Office performed a study and stated that even the most “robust” of the reform proposals now in consideration will still leave 36 million Americans without coverage ten years from now! So where is the big impact on the uninsured? — You say conservatives are “heartless”, I say we need to do it RIGHT, not quickly!!!
Posted by: MidwestValues | October 8, 2009, 11:06 am 11:06 am
justsane — The “public option” will NOT accomplish “competition”, just the opposite — So why do YOU think we need it????
Posted by: MidwestValues | October 8, 2009, 11:08 am 11:08 am
I think the Dems should hold off on
their celebration until the CBO scores
the final bill. This is not the one
thats going to be the final policy.
Lots of give and take yet so lets wait
for that number. Also post the bill online so people can look at this.
If they refuse, you have to believe
the reason is that they don’t want
you to know about it. You can not
make any other conclusion.
Posted by: wis134 | October 8, 2009, 11:32 am 11:32 am
Again they are jamming something down our throats for their own political reasons…won’t even let us read the bill…folks the dictators need to be thrown out of office now…they are not goood for you and me or the country
Posted by: phillysmart | October 8, 2009, 11:59 am 11:59 am
Resist the socialist…they want you money, your mind and your children…vote em out now
Posted by: phillysmart | October 8, 2009, 12:00 pm 12:00 pm
Who ever signs that bill had better be looking for work come 2010. It’ll be time to clean house. You heard it here first.
Posted by: WhatChange? | October 8, 2009, 12:02 pm 12:02 pm
“won’t even let us read the bill…”
phillysmart | Oct 8, 2009 11:59:15 AM
Meanwhile, the bill that this post is referring to has been publicly available since October 2 (with 2 pages of typo fixing and edits posted since October 5th) and will not be voted on until October 13th. I invite anyone reading to go read it on the Finance Committee’s homepage.
Why are you lying phillysmart?
Posted by: jhw539 | October 8, 2009, 12:20 pm 12:20 pm
“The “Medical Device Tax” that would add 3 percent to the costs of most medical equipment, which will increase costs to US!!”
MidwestValues | Oct 8, 2009 11:02:23 AM
Sure, because the current ‘system’ of treating all the uninsured at hospital ERs is completely free to everyone involved, Right?
Posted by: jhw539 | October 8, 2009, 12:22 pm 12:22 pm
There are several truisms to remember when considering any new government program: 1)The advertised checks on federal power are invariably sidestepped and rendered moot, 2)The proposed service delivers a fraction of claimed quality, and 3)The budget is quickly and dramatically exceeded, usually in an exponential fashion. Applied to healthcare, imagine the country overun with inefficient, decrepit VA-style hospitals and there’s your socialized healthcare system. We already pay more than the rest of the world for mediocre care– do you really think it’ll improve in cost or quality once the jokers in Washington have their way with it? Ignore the news– read your history and use common sense.
Posted by: h5mind | October 8, 2009, 12:27 pm 12:27 pm
“We already pay more than the rest of the world for mediocre care– do you really think it’ll improve in cost or quality once the jokers in Washington have their way with it? Ignore the news– read your history and use common sense.”
h5mind | Oct 8, 2009 12:27:39 PM
Back in reality, every other first world nation has some form of government intervention in the health care market. On average, they are FAR CHEAPER. Their people spend less and LIVE LONGER. Their businesses do not have the burden of health care weighing on them.
But h5mind and the rest of the far right are too wrapped up in waving their “America is incompetent and corrupt” banner to accept reality. The US government can do as good (better in my opinion) a job of health care options as the French, or Swiss, or even Italians for goodness sake.
America is the most prosperous free nation the world has ever seen because of the government the Founding Fathers created, not in spite of it as the Right wing America haters are ranting.
Posted by: jhw539 | October 8, 2009, 12:33 pm 12:33 pm
Health care costs will go up for most people and the only ones who benefit will be those who get free insurance that someone else pays for (taxpayers…) . Socialism is finally here.
Posted by: marks | October 8, 2009, 12:35 pm 12:35 pm
midwest: we have competition and what has it gotten us? higher medical costs than any nation, and larger numbers of people without healthcare of any sort other than emergency rooms. emergency room care is far more expensive than any other form of treatment. so the public option allows us to treat everyone on the “front end”, through check-ups, preventative treatments, innoculations, etc. any kind of illness is easier and cheaper to treat if it’s caught early.
Posted by: justsane | October 8, 2009, 12:38 pm 12:38 pm
“Socialism is finally here.”
marks | Oct 8, 2009 12:35:30 PM
I guess the socialized education, socialized police, socialized fire departments, socialized sewer systems, socialized national forests, socialized water systems, socialized 911 service, socialized power plants (like Hoover dam), socialized roads, socialized FDA, etc… are also terrible ideas? I mean, sure they are pretty much defining marks of a first world nation, but forget reality – we should really strive to a pure non-socialist ideal like Somalia or something.
Posted by: jhw539 | October 8, 2009, 12:39 pm 12:39 pm
I agree; a Health bill seems very likely.
We could tell that the Dems thought they had the votes finally, for at least nonprofits, when 1) the senators came on the media to support it.
This impression was confirmed 2) when the rumor went out that the public option was back on the table. Looks like the Party feels the votes are solid for a weaker bill. And so, with small gains locked in, it decided to go back to try the harder deal again: plugging a stronger bill, with a public option.
Posted by: Griffin | October 8, 2009, 12:43 pm 12:43 pm
Smoke and mirrors from George.
Just one small problem with the CBO analysis, George.
THERE IS NO BAUCUS BILL.
The CBO scored the concepts described by the Baucus Committee. There is no legislative text. None. Baucus and his Democratic colleagues refused to reduce their concepts to actual legislation prior to a vote. Here is the CBO’s disclaimer:
CBO and JCT’s analysis is preliminary in large part because the Chairman’s mark, as amended, has not yet been embodied in legislative language.
The Baucus Concepts are disasterous, but that’s for another post. For this post, let me get across a simple concept:
THERE IS NO BAUCUS BILL.
Senators on the Senate Finance Committee will not be voting on legislation because THERE IS NO BAUCUS BILL.
Senators have so little respect for you that some of them are willing to vote in favor of legislation which does not exist because THERE IS NO BAUCUS BILL.
The actual legislation will be drafted in secret by Harry Reid and a few other people, including staffers whose names and political connections you never will know, and the resulting legislation will be rammed through the Senate and House before anyone gets to read and analyze it.
Months of debate mean nothing. It’s all smoke and mirrors by people who think you are too stupid to realize what is going on.
THERE IS NO BAUCUS BILL.
Posted by: Jackson | October 8, 2009, 1:36 pm 1:36 pm
There IS NO REFORM without a public option – period!
Posted by: dano | October 8, 2009, 1:45 pm 1:45 pm
Cadillac insured will be charged 40% tax. Where does the money come from when people change their policies because they don’t want to pay the tax? “Oh, it costs more than we thought. Sorry.” They haven’t gotten 1 budget right yet in this administration. 1/4 trillion deficit already THIS YEAR! It is time to STOP.
Posted by: wheresmymoney | October 8, 2009, 2:18 pm 2:18 pm
Below, is a reprint what is found in the health care reform bill. As you read this, keep in mind that some of these translations are a bit loose with the interpretations, but have been spot-checked, and they are indeed all contained in the bill in one form or another (shrouded in Doublespeak language, of course). This is 1,018 page bill so there is more that could have been missed. I find pages 29,30,42,50,59,84,95,124,127 disturbing well I find the entire bill disturbing.
• Page 16: States that if you have insurance at the time of the bill becoming law and change, you will be required to take a similar plan. If that is not available, you will be required to take the government option!
• Page 22: Mandates audits of all employers that self-insure!
• Page 29: Admission: your health care will be rationed!
• Page 30: A government committee will decide what treatments and benefits you get (and, unlike an insurer, there will be no appeals process)
• Page 42: The “Health Choices Commissioner” will decide health benefits for you. You will have no choice. None.
• Page 50: All non-US citizens, illegal or not, will be provided with free healthcare services.
• Page 58: Every person will be issued a National ID Healthcard.
• Page 59: The federal government will have direct, real-time access to all individual bank accounts for electronic funds transfer.
• Page 65: Taxpayers will subsidize all union retiree and community organizer health plans (example: SEIU, UAW and ACORN)
• Page 72: All private healthcare plans must conform to government rules to participate in a Healthcare Exchange.
• Page 84: All private healthcare plans must participate in the Healthcare Exchange (i.e., total government control of private plans)
• Page 91: Government mandates linguistic infrastructure for services; translation: illegal aliens
• Page 95: The Government will pay ACORN and Americorps to sign up individuals for Government-run Health Care plan.
• Page 102: Those eligible for Medicaid will be automatically enrolled: you have no choice in the matter.
• Page 124: No company can sue the government for price-fixing. No “judicial review” is permitted against the government monopoly. Put simply, private insurers will be crushed.
• Page 127: The AMA sold doctors out: the government will set wages.
• Page 145: An employer MUST auto-enroll employees into the government-run public plan. No alternatives
Posted by: batesba74 | October 8, 2009, 2:48 pm 2:48 pm
Dear Leader Cahirman Maobama has said that the premiums will be reasonable. He has stated that you will be covered with pre-existing conditons, He has said that you will receive the care you require. He has said that you will have no yearly caps on you benifits. He has said that you will have no lifetime caps on your benifits. He has also said thatthe co-pay/deductable will be small.
With all of these requirements he has laid down where is the funding coming from as the premiums obviously won’t be enough to pay for all of this? The government has no money to subsudize health care without increasing the debt of the government which is not an option.
On October 1 2009 when Dear Leader Chairman Maobama took office the debt of the federal government was $11,920,519,164,319.42 which means that in his first 254 days in office he has increased the debt of the federal government by $1,293,642,115,406.34. That equates to $5,093,079,194.51 per day and at that continued rate of spending at the end of his first year in office the projected increase in the debt of the federal government will be $1,858,973,905,997.29 and at the end of his first term in office the projected increase will be $7,435,895,623,989.19 which is more than 150% of what Bush spent in his entire eight years in office. If he were to be elected to a second term we could then project increase to the debt of the federal government at $14,871,791,247,978.39 which is roughly three times what Bush spent during his administration and more than ALL other administrations in the history of this country.
Posted by: Sandcrab1612 | October 8, 2009, 2:52 pm 2:52 pm
If this present bill passes and all proposed medicare cuts take place… You will see seniors just receiving morphine for heart attacks instead of a cardiac cath/coronary stent. Expect rationed care (i.e. waiting 6 -12 weeks for coronary bypass surgery) in patients lucky enough to get a cardiac cath. Expect delays in seeing specialists. Expect physcians to close private practices or retire early.
Posted by: Doc out west | October 8, 2009, 8:39 pm 8:39 pm
I think we are all in for a big surprise. Let’s see if it gets posted on the internet for us to read or has that 72 hours gone by the board like all else?
Posted by: lvh | October 8, 2009, 9:25 pm 9:25 pm
Marks: we do not have competition, because we are not free to buy health insurance across state lines. If the government were to allow insurance companies to compete across state lines, simple laws of supply and demand would lead to lower costs for all. Couple this with simple tort reform, and we can all get the insurance we want at affordable rates!
Posted by: Tom | October 8, 2009, 10:36 pm 10:36 pm
George, why didn’t you report the disclaimers the CBO gave because they cannot give a real estimate until they have the legislative language? It is incredibly deceptive at this point and the CBO took pains to make that clear.
Those who have analyzed it have already torn it to pieces because about 1/2 is hidden taxes that the taxpayer will pick up and the other half is cuts to medicare. Not good for anyone.
Posted by: SjB | October 9, 2009, 1:13 am 1:13 am
Is someone going to deal with Tort reform? It isn’t just the multimillion dollar judgments and the thousands and thousands of “sealed” settlements that add to the cost of care (with the vast majority of that money going to lawyers and not to victims), it is also the cost of “defensive” medicine that is practiced, double or triple the number and complexity of tests doctors order to cover their rear ends, “just in case”. Add that to the expensive new technology out there that does not improve health care outcomes, but can be used (at a very high price) to defend doctors and hospitals from lawsuits and the increase is not linear, but exponential. There is no health reform without tort reform, and these bills will not change that. America pays its health premiums to make a very few attorneys very rich.
Posted by: Bob | October 9, 2009, 6:07 am 6:07 am
CAREFUL
What about separation of church and state.
IT may come to pass the day when some people complain that payments to Catholic, Baptist or Jewish hospitals are unconstitutional because the payments are benefiting a religious group.
Just like education as an example. Public funds cannot go to a religious school even though it is the parents choice to send them there, not the governments.
There you already have the precedent. So eventually say goodbye to any religous based hospital.
Posted by: Roy | October 9, 2009, 10:23 am 10:23 am
The health care “reform” is itself an abortion. Get real…. we simply cannot afford what the left wants and there is no one on the right that anyone is listening to.
Independents see the folly… they threw out the Republicans for spending too much and failing to deliver on their promises; now we will throw out the Democrats.
We will keep stabbing at both parties until they are weak enough to allow a 3td party, or they are both so weak as to finally start listening to the people out here who are paying the bills… the middle class that gets stomped on from both the left and the right!
Want to control costs? …improve quality? …increase options? …get the bureaucrats, lawyers, politicians, labor and big business bosses out of they way?
Take all the money to be spent on healthcare AFTER this reform and give it to the CITIZENS to spend on healthcare. …WE should be picking the health coverage we want for our family. Not our employers, not the politicians or bureaucrats.
Simply do away with every law that prevents a competitive market forming in health insurance; setup a division of Health and Human Services to provide a list of acceptable plans based on objective criteria, then let us CONSUMERS at the task of evaluating, selecting and buying the insurance we want.
Worried about those who will refuse to act? …randomly pick a minimal plan for them from a list of providers offering the “minimum approved” health plan and send them a tax bill for that cost.
Worried about the poor? You are already paying for them through the emmergency rooms… they will receive a “refundable credit” under this plan which corresponds to the cost of the minimal plan. …so they can afford it, and as described above, they will be forced into an approved plan at random if they fail to act.
You know our employers are paying for the plan they “give” us with money we earned and they, with the help of the government, diverted from our pay check before the “salary” number was writen down on the W-2.
It is all a shell game… get our employers and the government to quit the deception… give us the money and let us decide which providers serve us best. In a year or two, real competition for our business will do the same magic competition did to cell phones, PCs, TVs, and cars (until the government started over regulating and then bailing out the auto industry.)
Power to the people! Give us the money we actually earned, and then let us spend it on what is important to us! …not what is important to our bosses or our politicians or some bureaucrat on the take!
plan for each at random and
Posted by: Karl Q | October 9, 2009, 9:30 pm 9:30 pm
I live down here in Katrina country (Mississippi Gulf Coast). The only “storm insurance” we can buy is provided by the STATE! It is THREE TIMES more expensive than the home insurance we had before Katrina.
So much for “government insurance” being cheaper!
The crime was that the insurance companies were allowed to “cherry pick” when and where they would offer insurance covering wind storms.
Directly analogous to “pre-existing conditions” etc.
Insurance companies should be prevented from cherry picking by geography, state, employer, previous health, etc.
We need a large NATIONAL risk pool with many insurance companies competing for our business.
Simply outlaw insurance companies that do not offer nationwide plans free of any “cherry picking” and then allow competition do the magic.
But for this to work… WE much be the consumer who decides among the providers. There is no “free market” if the government or the employer is the one who pays the bill…. it is OUR lives that are on the line, WE should be making the purchasing decisions and directly providing feedback to the insurance companies when we or our family are not well served!
Posted by: Karl Q | October 9, 2009, 9:45 pm 9:45 pm
George – seriously? Casting Rove’s comments as “Even Karl Rove seems to concede the case in this morning’s WSJ by pointing out how he thinks passing health care will hurt Democrats.” is a bit of a stretch even for you.
If you read his article, titled “The GOP Is Winning the Health-Care Debate Gallup says independents now favor Republicans by nine points.” I find it hard to see where he is conceding anything of the sort. But you are the spin master.
Posted by: Chas | October 9, 2009, 11:12 pm 11:12 pm
George is an a wusss. He has no back bone.
Why else would he not just report the Truth about the Baucus Bill…instead he couches it in “critics” or “republican” will SAY THAT IT LEAVES OUT ABOUT 25 MILLION PEOPLE AND HAS LARGE TAX INCREASES, FEES AND MEDICARE CUTS.
Posted by: cbl22 | October 14, 2009, 2:24 pm 2:24 pm