Snowe Watch: A chance for GOP support, and a new old enemy for White House

ABC News’ Rick Klein reports:
Sometimes adding two cents breaks the piggy bank. Some piggy banks probably need to be broken. But then you're sent home.

The health insurance industry's last-ditch attempt to derail health care reform shattered at last the illusion of all the stakeholders working together. Yet it's not likely to have changed a vote in the Senate Finance Committee, slated to OK a health care bill at long, lost last on Tuesday.

It's even possible that the White House has now got the frame it's been seeking for months: United Democrats, with maybe just a touch of bipartisanship, going up against big, bad opponents of reform.

The recent phase of the health care push has been a search for enemies for the White House — and now some enemies have made themselves known. It turns out they've been there all along. (Hollywood makes movies about evil health insurers.)

More support is usually better than less — but did anyone seriously think the insurance companies were going to cheer on President Obama at a signing ceremony for a bill that bends a cost curve enough to eat into profits? (And if and when AHIP joins the ad wars — might it be a little late to break through with a new message?)

Tuesday's vote may be the biggest legislative move on health care in years. The Finance Committee isn't your average committee — not just because most its members consider themselves above average.
 
"The White House is on the verge of a significant victory," ABC's Jonathan Karl said on "Good Morning America" Tuesday. "This morning, all of the drama focuses on a single senator: Republican Olympia Snowe."

The trade-off for Snowe, R-Maine: Making formal the direction she's been headed in for months, or hold out for more — when her vote may take on even greater import — on the Senate floor.

Whether the vote is 13-10 or 14-9 (or 13-9), this marks a big day for those tracking health care reform, even if it was supposed to happen three months ago.

Context matters, as does timing: "The sharp exchange [with insurance companies] underscored the raised stakes for all parties as health legislation, which the White House wants to complete this year, moves closer to the House and Senate floors," Greg Hitt and Janet Adamy write in The Wall Street Journal. "Monday's report reflected a change in strategy and put the industry again in conflict with Congress."

"White House officials say they have momentum as the narrative shifts from whether a bill will pass to what it will contain," ABC's Jake Tapper reports.

Unintended consequences: "By declaring war on Baucus bill, AHIP will unleash Democrats (earlier held back by the White House) who want stronger measures like premium caps — and it will stiffen spine of those demanding a public option," ABC's George Stephanopoulos reports. "Bottom line: The chances that some kind of public option will make it into the final bill have now increased."

AHIP, panned: "Seriously engaging with its methodology probably gives it more credit than it deserves, making this seem like an argument between two opposing sides as opposed to a predictable industry hit job," The Washington Post's Ezra Klein blogs.

"One problem with the industry-funded report is that it bases its prediction on provisions in the bill that increase costs, while ignoring others that seek to mitigate those costs — such as subsidies to help many currently uninsured Americans purchase coverage," Time's Kate Pickert writes. "The report also makes broad assumptions about the impact of reform that conflict with the assessments of the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office."

Still in their seats: "Doctors, medical-device makers and one of two hospital groups still voiced support for overhaul efforts after the trade group America's Health Insurance Plans released its study," Bloomberg's Nicole Gaouette and Lizzie O'Leary report.

What the vote Tuesday will mean: "The Finance package has given Democrats some breathing room to make their case that they are on track to deliver health care reform that won't break the bank — something they've been arguing for months with little supportive evidence to point to. Even some House Democrats have taken to touting the legislation," Roll Call's David M. Drucker reports.

Next steps: "With few, if any, Republicans expected to support the bill sponsored by Chairman Max Baucus (Mont.), Democrats have already begun their own internal negotiations aimed at reconciling the various measures passed by House and Senate committees," The Washington Post's Shailagh Murray and Lori Montgomery report. "As part of that exercise, lawmakers are reviving ideas that had been discarded, including a new approach to a government insurance plan that appears to be gaining support with party moderates. . . . So far, negotiators are attempting to smooth out wrinkles before they become major rifts."

"President Obama will be a key player in Senate negotiations," per USA Today's Kathy Kiely. Said Jim Manley, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's spokesman: "The only way we're going to be able to put together a bill to overcome a Republican filibuster is with the active guidance of the president."

A glimpse at the big picture: "Senior Democrats are acknowledging that it may be impossible to provide coverage to all Americans — a central goal of President Obama and his congressional allies," Noam M. Levey reports in the Los Angeles Times.

Meeting for the fight — Americans United for Change is up with a new TV ad Tuesday, again taking aim at insurance companies. "When baseball players fix the games, they get in trouble," the ad says. "When health insurance executives fix the game, they get … rich. Time for competition when it comes to health insurance… we need the choice of a public health insurance plan."

Is Sen. Snowe ready to be in a DNC ad?

"All eyes will be on the 15th vote cast in the committee — one of the last hopes Democrats have to call their reform plans bipartisan," the Washington Times' Jennifer Haberkorn writes. "Sen. Olympia J. Snowe, Maine Republican, is the only member of the minority party who hasn't ruled out voting for Mr. Obama's reform plan."

George Stephanopoulos sees it as slightly more likely that Snowe votes "yes," but also sees some chance that she abstains: "The justification? What everyone knows to be true: the bill will be rewritten by Harry Reid and the White House anyway. The best way to keep your options open is to keep your options open."

How much should we care? Snowe "sided with Democrats in February to help pass Obama's $787 billion economic stimulus. Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, who's since switched parties, were the only other Republicans to back the bill," McClatchy's David Lightman writes. "Consequently, the stimulus is rarely seen as a bipartisan effort and conservatives aren't likely to see a Snowe vote adding that label to health care legislation."

Over on the left — the president's blogger problem: "[I] take it as a mark of pride for my profession that we're being called Cheeto-eaters this morning," FireDogLake's Jane Hamsher said Monday on ABCNews.com's "Top Line." "We're an independent political movement. We're progressives, and progressives in the House are dismissed, progressives online are dismissed. You know, progressive values, progressive groups are only allowed access to the White House to the extent that they're willing to torpedo progressive legislation."

We'll see the president in the Oval Office early afternoon, alongside President Zapatero of Spain. And at 2:10 pm ET, Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., gets some one-on-one time at the White House.

On Afghanistan — with the president meeting again with Vice President Joe Biden and Defense Secretary Robert Gates late Tuesday afternoon — we learn of new troop levels, separate from the strategic review. (And keep in mind throughout that the debate over a troop surge is taking place before the last surge is even completed.)

"President Obama announced in March that he would be sending 21,000 additional troops to Afghanistan. But in an unannounced move, the White House has also authorized — and the Pentagon is deploying — at least 13,000 troops beyond that number, according to defense officials," Ann Scott Tyson reports in The Washington Post. "The deployment of the support troops to Afghanistan brings the total increase approved by Obama to 34,000. The buildup has raised the number of U.S. troops deployed to the war zones of Iraq and Afghanistan above the peak during the Iraq ‘surge' that President George W. Bush ordered."

(Is this the White House re-setting the terms of the debate over troop strength?)

Afghan President Hamid Karzai, on the McChrystal report: "I'm fully behind him for what he's seeking in this report," Karzai told ABC's Diane Sawyer on "Good Morning America" Tuesday.

Karzai said there was fraud and irregularities in the election, but: "The election was good and fair and worthy of praise — not of scorn."

War wars: "Former Vice President Dick Cheney's eldest daughter Liz will launch a new group aimed at rallying opposition to the ‘radical' foreign policy of the Obama administration which it says has succeeded only in undermining the nation's security," Politico's Ben Smith reports. "The new group, Keep America Safe, will make the case against President Barack Obama's moves to wrench America away from Bush era foreign policy on issues from detaining alleged terrorists at Guantanamo Bay to building a missile shield in Eastern Europe."

Said Liz Cheney (with her father's penchant for rhetorical subtlety): "The policies being proposed by the Obama administration are so radical across the board. . . . Whether you're a Republican or a Democrat, you want the nation to be strong and so many steps this president is taking are making the nation weaker."

From the press release: "Keep America Safe is a new organization that will make the case for an unapologetic approach to fighting terrorism around the world, for victory in the wars this country fights, for democracy and human rights, and for a strong American military that is needed in the dangerous world in which we live. Liz Cheney is the chairman of Keep America Safe and the board of directors includes Bill Kristol, editor of the Weekly Standard, and Debra Burlingame, co-founder of the 9/11 Families for a Safe and Strong America and a director of the National September 11 Memorial and Museum Foundation at the World Trade Center." 

The group's first Web ad, "Rhetoric vs. Reality," is already up. 

Tuesday night on PBS: "Frontline" has its season premiere — "Obama's War." From the release: "FRONTLINE producer Martin Smith travels across Afghanistan and Pakistan to report on this war's many fronts and interviews top U.S. commander Gen. Stanley McChrystal, Amb. Richard Holbrooke, special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan; and Adm. Mike Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff."

A vow, for what it's worth: "No," said Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, with a laugh, when asked whether she will ever again seek the presidency, per the New York Daily News' Michael Saul. "This is a great job. It is a 24/7 job. And I'm looking forward to retirement at some point."

(These words means about as much as reporters let them mean. It's hard to be much more definitive than Clinton was Monday. But does anyone think she won't have to say the same — and in precisely the same manner — about a dozen more times before 2012?)

The secretary's day: "Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow as the U.S. seeks clarification on possible Russian support for new sanctions against Iran," Bloomberg's Janine Zacharia reports.

Obama's plague: "Make no mistake. Change isn't easy. It won't be happen overnight. There will be setbacks and false starts," the AP's Ben Feller writes. "Those who routinely listen to the president have come to expect some of those expressions to pop up in almost every speech. (That includes you, cynics and naysayers, the ones Obama mentions all the time without identifying who is saying nay.) Yet in the portfolio of presidential phrases, none is more pervasive than Obama's four-word favorite: Let me be clear. It is his emphatic windup for, well, everything."

Zeitgeist: "Americans have historically swung between anger at big business and anger at Washington. This year their rage has targeted business and government with equal fury," The Wall Street Journal's Naftali Bendavid writes. "Some don't see government and business as opposing forces. They see a unified elite pursuing one big swindle, as government takes taxpayers' money and bails out powerful companies such as banks and auto makers."

The Virginia debate: "Democrat R. Creigh Deeds sought to regain momentum in the race for Virginia governor Monday night by aggressively attacking Republican Robert F. McDonnell on transportation, women's issues and several other fronts during their first prime-time debate, while McDonnell repeatedly countered that his opponent would raise taxes," Rosalind S. Helderman and Anita Kumar report in The Washington Post.

"In answering almost every question, Deeds hit McDonnell, charging he has undergone a dramatic campaign-year reinvention as a pragmatic moderate interested in bipartisan compromise. More than once Deeds accused McDonnell of ‘lying,' language the Democrat told reporters just after the debate might have been ‘too strong," before going on to say that his opponent is ‘telling the same untruths over and over again.' "

Politico's Jonathan Martin: "Some top Democrats have said that Deeds should pivot to a more economic-oriented message and make his own case for why he should be elected governor, but the new commercial and the candidate's comments at the debate indicate that he intends to keep hammering McDonnell on the gender issue."

Tuesday afternoon on the Hill: Rep. Luis Gutierrez, D-Ill., headlines an immigration rally. From the release: "Reform Immigration FOR Families: Family Unity Cannot Wait will bring together families, clergy, veterans, and immigrants who are adversely affected by our nation's broken immigration system. The event will include a procession of prayers and a vigil with 2,500 people on the West Lawn of the U.S. Capitol."

The Kicker:

"I have to tell you, it never crosses my mind." — Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, asked if she ever wishes she was president.

"Am I bald?" — Gov. Jon Corzine, D-N.J., asked by the Press of Atlantic City whether he thinks GOP rival Chris Christie is fat.

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