By Jacqueline Klingebiel

Nov 11, 2009 11:55am

GOP Takes Gallup Lead: Harbinger Or Outlier?

That's the key question sparked by today's Gallup Poll that shows Republicans jumping four points ahead of Democrats on the 2010 ballot question — the kind of lead not seen by the GOP since their glory years of 1994 and 2002.

The poll also shows Democrats hemorrhaging independent voters.  From a 1 point lead in July to a 22 point deficit now.

Added to exit polls from last Tuesday's gubernatorial races in NJ and VA that showed the GOP candidates winning independents 2-1, the Gallup findings are a flashing red light for Democrats if accurate.

Our polling director Gary Langer points out that Gallup is the only national poll in the last month that has the GOP ahead. The others show Democrats holding a 6-12 point lead.

So for now, Gallup is the outlier.  Which doesn't mean, of course, that it isn't a harbinger.

UPDATE: Andy Kohut just sent me his new Pew Poll which reinforces both sides of the Outlier v Harbinger debate.  Democrats maintain a 5 point advantage (47-42) on the generic ballot, but anti-incumbent sentiment is raging:   Only 34% say that most incumbents should be re-elected, and only 52% want to see their own member of Congress win again.  As Andy points out, “both measures are among the most negative in two decades of Pew Research surveys.”

You can read the whole poll HERE.

- George Stephanopoulos

User Comments

Yes indeed the Pres. and the Democratic congress has helped us tremendously thus far..there was the GMC and Chrysler bailout..oh no wrong. Okay there was the bank bailout where we all received billions in bonuses..oh wrong again. Okay there was the stimulus that helped us all..oh wrong again. That helped build a 13 foot tunnel for turtles and other wildlife to cross U.S. 27 in Florida. Surely the health care bill will help us all..we will just be heavily taxed for that one…Well he helped with the unemployment rate not going over 8%…wrong again it’s at 10.2 and rising..Maybe the cap and tax…I just saw Gore as he boarded his plane heading to the bank and he said it will definately help us but he was laughing so hard I didn’t quite get how much he said it would cost us. Somebody let the President and Congress know they have helped us enough and we can take it from here.

Posted by: bailedout | November 11, 2009, 12:22 pm 12:22 pm

The people are already tired of this jimmy carter/Stalin type of administration. People are seeing that the DEMS have had 3 years now controlling congress and have done nothing but blame the REP and take no responsibility, while we have PRES. who has really and I am not kidding done 1 good thing for the american people. Health care, gas prices, war, taxes, tripled the national debt, 10.5% unemployment,

Posted by: tim | November 11, 2009, 12:22 pm 12:22 pm

The inability of the Dems to accomplish anything of note for 3 yrs., is more than enough reason to give up on them, altogether.

Posted by: Rick McDaniel | November 11, 2009, 12:23 pm 12:23 pm

They need to poll those that will be paying the bill for the health care debacle. What do you expect when asking a kid if they like you for giving them free candy. “Demanding” one of the kids to buy candy for the rest of the kids then asking if they like you is a different story. Any poll should make the distinction of who the beneficiaries and load-bearers are.

Posted by: TX_MBell | November 11, 2009, 12:25 pm 12:25 pm

dems are done in 2010. they never learn and frankly the gop will probably follow suit after they gain control. what is so haed to figure out that the fringes of each party are not what the majority wants, yet leadership always follows the agenda laid down by the the fringe element…in the mean time its all about REAL JOBS.

Posted by: catman | November 11, 2009, 12:31 pm 12:31 pm

for the good of most americans please put pelosi out to pasture.

Posted by: catman | November 11, 2009, 12:34 pm 12:34 pm

As an independent voter, birther and tea partier I don’t think the republicans get it yet! We have noticed that not one republican (or democrat) in the congress in opposition of Obamacare has addressed the constitutionality of government takeover of healthcare.
We are looking for politicians to stand in the gap, not on the fence!

Posted by: Ed Taylor | November 11, 2009, 12:38 pm 12:38 pm

Dems are done having control for along time to come after next election. The American people have seen what the are now and want this country back from them. We where warning them to listen to the majority and they did not. Now today some dems are coming out against the bill. Wonder why? Its to late. This is a free country to buy, sell and trade leagal items in or from. Not taken over by a Cuba/ Russian type DNC party. Please wriet or e-mail your representitives and remind them we are their BOSS and some will be fired.

Posted by: Jim Rod | November 11, 2009, 12:41 pm 12:41 pm

Way too soon to pay attention to anyone that says one side or another has an advantage but I can tell you that the last two insane bills passed by Congress is not about helping all the American people-it is about winning, winning at all cost, and expanding Governments control over our lives. If Government wants to help they could set up a a department like the food stamp program and have people who need help come in and qualify for it. For those that have insurance, reform it allow purchases from state to state etc.
Remember folks, Congress has been under democratic control for 3 years…is your life any better now than 3 years ago? Is this swirl and hype about healthcare doing anything to get you a good paying job?

Posted by: david | November 11, 2009, 12:42 pm 12:42 pm

Gallup has been a corrupted Republican tool for several tears now an is always skewed in that direction.

Posted by: Matt | November 11, 2009, 12:59 pm 12:59 pm

News Flash! The Cuban government is going broke and is now actually asking its people for criticism. They are looking to role back socialism in favor of small businesses based upon capitalist model. How ironic. Checkout the NPR website with an article titled: Cubans Warily Test Their New Freedom To Criticize

Posted by: TX_MBell | November 11, 2009, 1:01 pm 1:01 pm

GOP—
Party Of No —
Party of Obstructionism—
Party of Special Interests—
Party of Tax breaks for the Upper 3%—
Never saw a war they didn’t like–
Fought Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare
But gave us the Bridge to nowhere
Took the greatest surplus in US history
And left us with Two ongoing Useless wars for Corporate Profit
Yes, lets put that Crowd of Cronyistic,
In the Pocket, Corporate paid off
Double talking Snake oil Salesmen
Back in so they can Outsource the rest of the Country into third world status–
And Continue their No Bid War for Profit
sell out!!!
GOP
The
Got our Payola
Party

Posted by: brian | November 11, 2009, 1:01 pm 1:01 pm

A pointless poll unless we see who is running. Put up a nut case and chances are you are not going to win.

Posted by: Thinking | November 11, 2009, 1:08 pm 1:08 pm

I am so sick of people saying how Obama isn’t doing anything for you. How about quit being lazy and make change happen yourself and quit expecting a handout. Those bank bail outs will have the tax payers see profit. The stock market is up to 10000 points now? WHen was the last time that happened during Bush era? And yes bailing out auto was a little sketch but do you let all those people go from there jobs? Then the unemployment rate would sore well above 10.2%. You cant blame Obama for the people still losing there jobs. Its like a sno ball effect. Y’all let Bush run this country into ground for 8 years, and he doubled our nations debt in that time. Did you think everything was going to change over night? Hasn’t the housing market seen a rise? And the healthcare bill isn’t going to raise taxes for the majority of people. Quit watching fox and listening to rush limbaugh and actually go read the bill. Or is it to long for you to understand? Thinks are turning around compared to what they were at a year ago and you guys are bashing him. I dont believe dropping bombs on Iraq will ever see a taxpayer profit. It’s sad to see how many people are giving up over night. where were you all the last 8 years? especially in 2004 when bush somehow got re elected. And yea your taxes will probably go up but thats b/c those 3 tax cuts bush did while doubling our nations debt are done in 2010 I think. Who seriously cuts taxes while having a huge spending deficit? Wake Up People!!!

Posted by: matt | November 11, 2009, 1:12 pm 1:12 pm

Democrats will ignore these poll results at their own peril. America is still very much a centrist country. Today’s Democrats in power are not your father’s Democrats. They are 60′s radicals all grown up. JFK would be ostracized from today’s Democrat party for being too conservative. If today’s Democrats don’t get that message, so be it.

Posted by: Woody | November 11, 2009, 1:27 pm 1:27 pm

gop this and that. dems dont get it. they are in control and are becoming the problem rather than the solution. independents, like me,want JOBS and PEOPLE WORKING in the private sector.people will vote FOR CHANGE THAT CAN HAPPEN rather than that which is only talked about.its about showing the demms and in, particular pelosi ,the door rather hiring the gop.

Posted by: catman | November 11, 2009, 1:49 pm 1:49 pm

Poll is a little decieving because in order for GOP to retake congress which I am hoping for GOP needs a at least a double digit lead in the generic polling.
Dems have a 258-177 advantage right now. GOP needs a double digit lead because dems will need a lot of incumbents to lose. GOP will run up big victories in the seats they hold especially in the south but if dems win narrow victories in the seats they hold they can still retain the house even losing the overall vote.
Dems also have very few retirements which is different than 1994.
After gop took the house in 1994 it worked good as they cut spending and balanced the budget with Clinton.

Posted by: james | November 11, 2009, 2:10 pm 2:10 pm

If people put republicans back in office after their two disastrous administrations and congress, then we the people deserve for this country to self-destruct. If there’s any truth to these polls – which can change ten times over before the ’10 elections – then the movie trailer for 2012 must be right. We’re totally doomed.

Posted by: pamp205 | November 11, 2009, 2:22 pm 2:22 pm

Freedom is imprisonment for failure to prostrate one’s self to the power of the government. The people have to fear the power of government to enjoy the benefits of it’s heavy handed control over their lives. It’s very progressive. Thomas Jefferson called it tyranny, but Karl Marx calls it freedom. Who are you going to believe, Thomas Jefferson or Karl Marx? Thomas Jefferson was obviously and idiot and the people should reject him and embrace Karl Marx. The government should take over car companies and banks and health care and have control over our pay, punitively tax the people, control speech, sky rocket the costs of energy and imprisonment them for dissent, all while encumbering us with even trillions more in spending, that will come from US. That’s the current agenda. That’s what’s been promised to us. That’s progressive. We are an Obama Nation, like it or not. This is the agenda of the ruling party overlords and what they are promising to do to us for as long as they are in power.

Posted by: TexBork009 | November 11, 2009, 3:02 pm 3:02 pm

Well, George, once again you write the article but discount its contents. Why is it so hard for you to believe that the American people are sick and tired of the Democrats in power even TALKING about taking our freedoms and taxing us to death (yes, that is what Pelosi’s health care plan will do – make the little people pay) much less actually PASSING their ideas. We’re tired of the thought that they can just print the money without taking any fiscal responsibility or accountability toward the future. Mark my words…. 2010 will be a firestorm like no other because by that time the American people with brains will fully recognize the danger these people pose to our way of life. Get over it George. It’s not only coming…..it’s here.

Posted by: NJBChicago | November 11, 2009, 3:12 pm 3:12 pm

So a few think the the Gallup Poll is the Republican poll I did not know that but maybe i am dumb. Now if you want to go by Polls from the New York Times LA times ABC CBS NY Post you get very Liberal Views now we are talking about views for the Democrats rather they are right or wrong. The people that Blame the Republicans for all of Obama problems can Dream on. The President has spend Twice as much money on things that has not done much I did not like some thing that Bush wanted but i have not liked any thing that Obama has done and if he say something good i will believe it is good when it happens which i have not seen any thing that he has done that is any good. YOU Democrats that like high Texes for the big Give aways then you have a good man in office. Obama changes his mind every day. ON the Health care i do not want and the people that want it let the Democrats give it to you after you pay for the health care and you go to the doctor and Hospital where are you going to have the money to pay or do your want the democrats to pay for everything?

Posted by: David | November 11, 2009, 3:24 pm 3:24 pm

Gallup and Rasmussen has the Republicans ahead. Gallup by 4 Rass by 6…looks like Pew is the Outlier

Posted by: Darin | November 11, 2009, 3:34 pm 3:34 pm

And of course the Democrats are in trouble. Look what Obama did to the economy. He owns a 10.2 jobless rate. under Bush it never rose above 7.5%. Obama has lost more jobs and spent us into such an irresponsible debt it will take decades to recover from Obama. His freeloader policies are making it worse.

Posted by: Darin | November 11, 2009, 3:37 pm 3:37 pm

I saw an artilce talking about the melt down of the Blue States and it made perfect sense. The dem elites have taxed and regulated themselves to death and driven business out of their states. California is a perfect example and is where this country is heading with Obama. The green movement is all about new regulation imposed on you and will kill our already fragile economy. It looks like people are finally starting to wake up, i hope it is not too late.

Posted by: sammy | November 11, 2009, 3:39 pm 3:39 pm

Darin Actually the unemployment rate is closer to 18% if you take into account people who have run out of unemployment benifits or taken a low paying job just to get by.

Posted by: sammy | November 11, 2009, 3:42 pm 3:42 pm

Does anyone remember the shape of things when Obama was voted into office …. yes, we were in a downward spiral that was affecting the entire world, who btw, pretty much had no respect for the US because of the previous (Bush) administration. We are in the process of recovering from that & many other losses of regulations from previous GOP administrations.
IMO, things would have been much, much worse & they were stalled thanks to quick action by the Obama administration. Would you rather be in bread lines with 401k & stocks having very little value. Job recovery is just around the corner.
I might also add that there is always a deficit when the GOP are in office & a balanced budget when the Dems are in office.
We have a deficit now because of the depression that was almost realized last Oct thanks to many previous GOP administrations & their de-regulations. I suspect this deficit will be reduced in the next few years.
Do you wish to live in the dark ages, not taking advantage of technology & energy independence ….. we need to step into the 21st century & Obama is leading us in that direction.
It is always ironic to me that the GOP says they don’t want government when they are the government.
Government is not running our lives, they are making it better.
And, people sick & tired of the Democrats are GOP …. not the forward thinking Democrats.

Posted by: Linda | November 11, 2009, 3:43 pm 3:43 pm

keep spinning George. Keep spinning. Good to see you are STILL a yes man for the DNC. Repulsive that you call yourself a newsman.

Posted by: mark | November 11, 2009, 3:43 pm 3:43 pm

As an independent I know I’ll be voting out the two Democrat incumbents next year. Patrick Murphy claims to be a Blue Dog but his voting record is of a Liberal Democrat. And Arlen Specter is whatever someone wants him to be…he can’t be trusted. The health care bill will do nothing to lower the cost of health insurance and likely will only increase it like government subsidies have done with college tuition. In case nobody noticed college inflation is greater than health care and doesn’t have the advances that we’ve seen with health care. Vote Independent or Republican…the Dems can’t be trusted anymore!

Posted by: WorriedAmerican | November 11, 2009, 3:57 pm 3:57 pm

The budget deficit certainly didn’t blow up under Obama’s watch. The problem is that during the good years (2003-2007) when the economy was booming, why did the Bush administration made record deficit year after year? There is nothing Obama could have done in the face of the most serious recession since the Great Depression, with plunging tax revenue, increase in number of Americans in need, the need to bail out banks to prevent the catastrophic collapse of the whole economy, and the need to implement economic stimulus. However, I am glad the President is focused on the long term picture of investing in infrastructure and renewable energy for future benefits of the US economy.

Posted by: robert | November 11, 2009, 4:05 pm 4:05 pm

Liberals live in their own little world.
You have to either be very, very rich or
so poor that you don’t pay taxes, to be a Democrat.
Conservatives are hard-working, tax-paying people and they work way too hard
to be inclined to turn over most of their paycheck to our bureaucratic gov’t.

Posted by: paul | November 11, 2009, 4:08 pm 4:08 pm

Outlier!!!
I’m with brian, james, sammy and a few others who appear to be thinking for themselves. The Republicans during the past 8 years took a large surplus and ran it into the ground. Yea! I got extra IRS payouts while Bush was in office and he/RNC cut taxes but I knew it was a bad move, at the time, and that it would likely hurt our economy. Anyone who has gone to college and taken the required Economics courses will know an economic down turn such as this cannot rebound overnight, it could take years and no human (Obama & the Dems included) will be able to work a miracle to change that fact. So to blame Obama and the Dems is pointless. The USA is the only industrialized county with citizens not getting the healthcare we as a WHOLE need and healthcare costs skyrocketing. I would not be surprised if some of the Republican’s are in the pockets of the health insurance companies!!! Unless the Republicans stop their bickering and stonewalling of everything the Dems come up with and start working with them/everyone like we pay them too, and coming up with constructive alternatives to what the Dems propose I’ll stop voting Republican and vote for the Dems — at lease they are trying to do something constructive and help the people they represent!!!

Posted by: JMMMB | November 11, 2009, 4:16 pm 4:16 pm

Funny to read this liberal rag even attempt to tell the truth.Liberal radical Marxist Dems are history and will be in the woods for decades for what they are doing!The are domestic threats to our Constitution and should be in prison for what they are doing…do be very afraid.They will be out of office in 2010 and the Conservative Constitutionalist that we Tea Partier put in will UNDO all they’ve done!!..We shall never forget

Posted by: Jeanne | November 11, 2009, 4:36 pm 4:36 pm

paul — are you totally nuts??? I’m a Republican and am so sick and tired of your kind of rhetoric!!!
YOU SAY:
You have to either be very, very rich or
so poor that you don’t pay taxes, to be a Democrat.
Conservatives are hard-working, tax-paying people and they work way too hard
to be inclined to turn over most of their paycheck to our bureaucratic gov’t.
I SAY:
REALLY??? you got to be kidding – most Dems (everyday folks) are dirt pour, hard-working, tax paying people. Most Republicans are middle class or rich with closed fists that will do little or nothing humanitarian even if it was to save their lives and will find every tax loophole legal or not so they won’t have to pay their taxes. The most equitable way to assess income tax would be a flat percentage — that way the rich would be paying their fair share!
I’m so disgusted with the majority of my Republican brethren I’m thinking of changing to the Democratic Party!

Posted by: JMMMB | November 11, 2009, 4:36 pm 4:36 pm

LOL….never again!

Posted by: sara | November 11, 2009, 5:54 pm 5:54 pm

I do not want a company which has profit as its stated number one goal to be making decisions about my medical expenses. There are all kinds of politics and sleazy decision making. I realize that this same kind of politics and decision making is in government which has a stated goal the good of the citizens. The difference in stated goals, profiteering on one hand and good of the citizens on the other hand. This leaves me with a no brainer preference: I do not want the profit motive getting in the way of my health. I ask my government to regulate and interfere when profiteering promises to be detrimental to my health, no matter how much the companies involved spend on lobby activities and misleading spin. Regulate and interfere, just as you would if some driver runs slipshod past red lights, stop signs and speed limits after drinking alcoholic beverages. Diminish his freedom to do so with laws and police.

Posted by: Michael Steib | November 11, 2009, 8:50 pm 8:50 pm

It’s fun to watch the Republican gaggle act as it is the entire American population.

Posted by: bsb | November 12, 2009, 2:03 am 2:03 am

Was a Democrat. Changed to Independent 1 month ago. I want Pelosi out, I want Obama out. I don’t want govt to shove their own healthcare at me.

Posted by: shinju | November 12, 2009, 5:13 am 5:13 am

I am tickled pink that many, many people who were duped by Obungle last Nov., are waking up to the fact that he is BAD for this country.
Odumdum’s failed policies of communism/socialism are not what Americans want. We are not a nation of parasites who wish to be wholly dependent on the government.

Posted by: liberwhacker | November 12, 2009, 5:28 am 5:28 am

“Gallup has been a corrupted Republican tool for several tears now an is always skewed in that direction.”
Yup, and so is the NYT. Oh, and MSNBC!
LOL!!

Posted by: Mary | November 12, 2009, 7:05 am 7:05 am

The problem is not with Obama. The problem is with neither Democrats nor Republicans. The problem is with the private sector, which keeps on firing and firing and firing and laying people off. So, maybe we should pay companies and tell them they have to use the money to hire people.

Posted by: Rickyrab | November 12, 2009, 8:34 pm 8:34 pm

Rasmussen has shown Republicans with a similar edge for several weeks, so it isn’t correct to say that this is the only national poll showing such a result.

Posted by: JELyne | November 13, 2009, 2:41 am 2:41 am

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