The Note: Change Election – GOP Finds Hope; Democrats Find Fear; Independents Find Power

BY RICK KLEIN

So it’s not quite a thumping. Call it a spanking. It stings nonetheless.

Election Day 2009 will be remembered as the day Democrats hoped to recreate some magic but didn’t. Change ran its winning streak to three.
 
Independent voters found new homes. Surge voters just plain stayed home. Republicans remembered what it was like to win again. Democrats remembered what it was like to run without Barack Obama on the ballot.

The big Republican wins in New Jersey and Virginia are tempered by the very real fact that it was Democrats who actually gained a seat in Congress (over no less a foe than Sarah Palin).

But the broad lessons of Tuesday — unease over the economy, the shift among independents, a blue-state repeal of gay marriage, the anti-incumbent fervor (all three marquee races wound up as party switches) — register a little more strongly with the side in power.

(And has the push to have gotten health care done long before campaign season ever looked more prescient — or appear, even now, more distant?)

Remember that this is a bookmark, not a bookend. But the story just got more interesting.

“The results in the New Jersey and Virginia races underscored the difficulties Mr. Obama is having transforming his historic victory a year ago into either a sustained electoral advantage for Democrats or a commanding ideological position over conservatives in legislative battles,” Adam Nagourney writes in The New York Times. “The results suggested the limits of the political influence of Mr. Obama.”

(Tough story to sell: “The real story here is, I think this thing is ambiguous,” says David Axelrod.)

Among the troublesome signs: “Vast economic discontent marked the mood of Tuesday’s off-year voters, portending potential trouble for incumbents generally and Democrats in particular in 2010,” ABC Polling Director Gary Langer writes, off of the exit polls.

In Virginia, Bob McDonnell won independents 66-33. In New Jersey, Chris Christie won them 60-30 — with an independent on the ballot.

“These independents have become the predators of politics — and incumbents are their prey,” ABC’s George Stephanopoulos said on “Good Morning America” Wednesday.

All that talk of the stimulus’ impact… “The GOP won big tonight because the voting was a referendum on the economy,” Stephanopoulos reports. “On that top issue, voters let out a primal scream. Which will echo across Obama’s second year.”

2009 is no 2008: “Neither gubernatorial election amounted to a referendum on the president, but the changing shape of the electorates in both states and the shifts among key constituencies revealed cracks in the Obama 2008 coalition and demonstrated that, at this point, Republicans have the more energized constituency heading into next year’s midterm elections,” The Washington Post’s Dan Balz writes.

The AP’s Liz Sidoti: “Independents who swept Barack Obama to a historic 2008 victory broke big for Republicans on Tuesday as the GOP wrested political control from Democrats in Virginia and New Jersey, a troubling sign for the president and his party heading into an important midterm election year.”

“This election was as much about who didn’t show up as who did. Obama World took the day off,” Newsweek’s Howard Fineman writes.

“Republicans on Tuesday dispelled any notion of President Obama’s electoral invincibility,” the Los Angeles Times’ Mark Z. Barabak and Faye Fiore report.

Can even a loss be a win? Well, ask Sarah Palin: “The race for New York’s 23rd District is not over, just postponed until 2010. The issues of this election have always centered on the economy – on the need for fiscal restraint, smaller government, and policies that encourage jobs. In 2010, these issues will be even more crucial to the electorate,” Palin posted on Facebook shortly after midnight ET. “The cause goes on.”

Bottling NY-23? “The White House hopes that that’s a template for what happens all over the country,” ABC’s Jake Tapper reported on “Good Morning America” Wednesday.

(Democrat Bill Owens is going to finish right around 50 percent — quite the victory for the DCCC, with or without history-weighted references to Civil War-era representation.)

Remembering the Mainers: “Maine voters overturned the state’s same-sex marriage law yesterday, delivering a potentially crushing blow to gay-rights advocates after a year when their cause seemed to be gaining momentum with legislative and legal victories in four states,” The Boston Globe’s Maria Sacchetti reports.

(Nate Silver, at FiveThirtyEight.com: “As for the polling, I think we have to seriously consider whether there is some sort of a Bradley Effect in the polling on gay rights issues…”)

$100 million buys you — what, exactly, these days? “Mayor Bloomberg won a squeaker Tuesday night — claiming a third term by a surprisingly thin 5-point margin after outspending his rival by nearly $80 million” per the New York Daily News.

Lesson time:

“Eager to drain the 2009 elections of drama and import, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs claimed Tuesday night that President Barack Obama was ‘not watching returns,’ ” Politico’s John F. Harris and Jonathan Martin report. “You can be sure that he is studying them closely now: The off-year elections were in two big races an unmistakable rebuke of Democrats, reshuffling Obama’s political circumstances in ways likely to have severe near-term consequences for his policy agenda and larger governing strategy.”

It’s the… “Republicans swept governors’ races in New Jersey and Virginia as voters worried about jobs and the economy punished Democrats,” Bloomberg’s Heidi Przybyla reports. “The Republican wins in two out of three races could embolden conservative activists seeking to promote rivals for the seats of party lawmakers and officials such as Florida Governor Charlie Crist who supported Obama’s $787 billion economic stimulus.”

Clip-and-save, for NRCC recruits: “In a sign that there’s more trouble ahead for Democrats, voters in New Jersey and Virginia said they were driven by the economy and spending, and Republicans said their showing on Tuesday gives them momentum heading into the 2010 congressional elections,” the Washington Times’ Stephen Dinan and S.A. Miller report.

Fire up the zingers: “It’s unclear which White House staffer thought it would be a good idea to have an NBC show called ‘The Biggest Loser’ visit the White House in an episode that aired on what was shaping up to be a tough election night for President Obama and the Democratic party, but the contestants stopped by 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue Tuesday night as election returns came in,” ABC’s Jake Tapper and Yunji de Nies report.

Feeling that drift? The New York Times’ Peter Baker marks the year since Grant Park: “A year later, as a few smaller elections yielded a more critical judgment, the hope and hubris have given way to the daily grind of governance, the jammed meeting schedule waiting in the morning, the thick briefing books waiting at night, the thousand little compromises that come in between. The education of a president is complicated, and as Mr. Obama has

Slate’s John Dickerson: “The president can explain that he has more influence over issues in the national conversation that will be part of the 2010 races — and that he wasn’t on the ballot anywhere in 2009. But members of Congress are a nervous bunch. This will make them more so.”

That’s the short-term takeaway on health care — which, of course, is nowhere close to a short-term issue anyway.

Speaking of timing: “Senior Congressional Democrats told ABC News today it is highly unlikely that a health care reform bill will be completed this year, just a week after President Barack Obama declared he was ‘absolutely confident’ he’ll be able to sign one by then,” ABC’s Jonathan Karl reports. “ ‘Getting this done by the by the end of the year is a no-go,’ a senior Democratic leadership aide told ABC News.”

(Flashback to July 2009: “If you don’t set deadlines in this town, things don’t happen,” President Obama said.)

Who’s committed to whom? “The delay would be a setback for the White House, which has made enacting a health overhaul its top domestic priority this year,” The Wall Street Journal’s Janet Adamy and Patrick Yoest write. “But officials minimized the prospect. Dan Pfeiffer, deputy communications director at the White House, said, ‘Senator Reid has committed to the president that as soon as the Senate has the information back from the CBO they will move expeditiously to pass health reform.’ ”

“Even if it doesn’t sink the health care effort, a delay would raise new uncertainties and push other domestic priorities further back. It also would give opponents a chance to pick off nervous Democratic lawmakers eyeing their November 2010 re-election campaigns,” the AP’s Chuck Babington reports.

If Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is right … “the best-case scenario becomes this: both the House and the Senate pass their versions of the health care bill before leaving at the end of the year, and a conference committee begins its work while they are gone; a conference committee report, while controversial, would likely pass a Democratic Congress. If not, a loss of momentum could dampen the sense of inevitability that, as much as anything else, has brought health care reform to the point of being nearly within reach,” Time’s Karen Tumulty writes.

Over in the House — under the cover of Election Night zaniness: “Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) released a catch-all package of tweaks to her sweeping health care overhaul late Tuesday, but punted on a dispute over abortion language that continues to bedevil the broader bill,” Roll Call’s Tory Newmyer and Steven T. Dennis report. “By publicly posting the amendment package Tuesday night, House Democrats started a 72-hour clock they pledged to wind down before bringing the bill to the floor, setting up a possible vote Friday night.”

(Democrats will have two new votes by then — and don’t think they’ll need them.)

Ladies and gentlemen, your GOP health care alternative — yes, posted online. From the release: “The American people have spoken. They oppose government-run health care. Republicans are on the side of the American people.”

The president’s day — from Grant Park to … Wright Middle School: “On the anniversary of his election, President Barack Obama heads to Madison, Wisconsin to speak at a local middle school,” ABC’s Yunji de Nies reports  “He’ll address education policy, with a focus on the ‘Race to the Top’ initiative. That $4.35 billion dollar program, funded through the Recovery Act, is a national competition among the states, to inspire education reform.”

Job counting — AP headline: “STIMULUS WATCH: Salary raise counted as saved job.” “If I give you a raise, it is going to save a portion of your job,” HHS spokesman Luis Rosero told Brett J. Blackledge and Matt Apuzzo.

Wall Street Journal headline: “White House Tally Appears to Overstate Stimulus Jobs.”

Publishing Wednesday: Former Gov. Mike Huckabee’s latest book, “A Simple Christmas.” 
 

The publicity tour starts Wednesday morning with a Christian Science Monitor breakfast, plus a lunchtime book signing at the Costco at Pentagon City, and extends through 64 events in 22 states.

And Huckabee will be on ABCNews.com’s “Top Line” Wednesday at noon ET.

Also Wednesday — Carly for Senate, in California. From the campaign-to-be: “Carly Fiorina will make a major announcement on Wednesday at one of Orange County’s leading businesses, Earth Friendly Products, in Garden Grove. Carly will make a major announcement and take questions from the audience during a town-hall style forum.”

Get your tickets: “Former Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush won’t be joining the Rockettes’ kickline, but they will bring their traveling road show to Radio City Music Hall in February,” Newsday’s Kathleen Kerr reports. “Clinton and Bush plan to debate each other on key political issues on Feb. 25 at the venue better-known for high-kicking dancers and Christmas pageants.”

The Kicker:

 “I would have beaten him like a rented mule.” — Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., in September 2009, joking about what might have been in a race against Mayor Bloomberg, on ABCNews.com’s “Top Line.”

“Whatever the outcome of those elections, it will have an impact on people’s interpretations of the upcoming election.” — Then-Rep. Rahm Emanuel, on the eve of November 2005’s gubernatorial contests in New Jersey and Virginia, to Roll Call, plotting the Democratic takeover of Congress a year out. 

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