By Gorman Gorman

Dec 17, 2009 1:56pm

Dem Honcho Says 2010 Is Not 1994

ABC News' Teddy Davis reports: The Democrat in charge of maintaining the party's majority in the House of Representatives told reporters on Thursday that next year's midterm elections will not be a repeat of 16 years earlier when Republicans won control of Congress by tapping into disenchantment with all-Democratic rule.

"This is not going to be 1994 all over again," said Rep. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Van Hollen's pen-and-pad briefing with reporters, which took place at Democratic Party headquarters in Washington, D.C., was held in the wake of four veteran House Democrats announcing their plans to retire next year. Despite those recent setbacks in Kansas, Washington State, and two in Tennessee, Van Hollen said he was confident about 2010 because of readiness, resources, and a relative lack of retirements. 

The Maryland congressman said that when Democrats lost control of Congress in 1994, they were "totally caught by surprise."

This time, by contrast, Van Hollen said "we've been preparing since Day One."

The DCCC's "Frontline" program is key to Van Hollen's promise to be ready. The Frontline Program, which has been in place the past two election cycles, requires vulnerable House Democrats to meet aggressive fundraising goals, accelerate volunteer and recruitment efforts, and increase their online networking in exchange for help with fundraising, research, field organizing, and communications.

Currently, 42 Democrats are in the DCCC's frontline program. The goal of the program is to get vulnerable incumbents shored up so that the DCCC's independent expenditure arm can focus on helping Democratic challengers instead of Democratic incumbents.

Resources are also key to Van Hollen's confidence.

Van Hollen pointed to the DCCC's wide fundraising advantage over the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) and said Republicans have to pick up its fundraising if it is serious about regaining the majority.

"The DCCC has right now about a 3-to-1 cash-on-hand advantage over Republicans," said Van Hollen. "We're not clear how many seats the NRCC claims to have in play … let's just say they have 40."

"By our calculation, that's $100,000 that the NRCC has for each candidate," said Van Hollen. "So, if they are going out and telling the candidates that they have the resources to support them, candidates better check the NRCC books."

Van Hollen acknowledged the recent Democratic retirements but sought to put them in a broader context.

"It's important to put this in perspective. There has been a whole lot of Republican spin and hype on this issue," said Van Hollen. "As of today, there are actually more Republican retirements than Democratic retirements. There are 12 Republicans who are retiring including a number from seats that are very competitive for Democrats. Mike Castle is retiring (from the House to run for Vice President Biden's former Senate seat in Delaware). We've got a great candidate there, the former lieutenant governor. Obviously, Mark Kirk's retirement in Illinois (from the House to run for President Obama's former Senate seat). Jim Gerlach's retirement in Pennsylvania (to run for governor)."

"While there may be additional Democratic retirements this year. It's very possible — we absolutely do not expect an enormous surge of retirements," said Van Hollen.

On the question of whether the Democratic base will be disillusioned to vote next year now that former DNC chairman Howard Dean has condemned the watered down health-care bill currently being debated in the United States Senate, Van Hollen sidestepped the question, saying the legislative process – including the issue of whether there should be a government insurance option — is not yet complete.

"Howard Dean has been a very important voice in this debate. He has helped move the process forward in terms of the public option in the House," said Van Hollen. "What I'm saying is that the Senate will complete its work and then the Senate and the House will work out their differences."

Republican officials think that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's agenda has fallen out of favor with the public and that the GOP has a major opportunity in next year's midterm elections.

The NRCC acknowledges, however, that it needs to improve its fundraising if it wants to take advantage of a climate which has led a handful of veteran Democrats to "throw in the towel", in the words of Republicans, rather than face bruising fights for re-election.

In a memo to House Republicans released to the press on Thursday, Rep. Pete Sessions, R-Texas, the NRCC chairman, made a plea for stepped up contributions from sitting Republican members of Congress.

"The pieces are in place for a momentous change next year, but not without the help and dedication of our Conference, candidates, and staff," wrote Sessions.

ABC News' Brittany Crockett contributed to this report.

User Comments

Congress has gone insane. Expect change in 2010.

Posted by: Jeff | December 17, 2009, 2:25 pm 2:25 pm

It’s not going to be 1994, but Democrats are going to lose – the Whitehouse’s party always does in a midterm and a recession amplifies the effect. Whether they lose control of the House is dependent on the outcome of the health care bill and how vigorously the Republicans fight to defend the banks from reasonable regulation in 2010.

Posted by: jhw539 | December 17, 2009, 2:28 pm 2:28 pm

“The DCCC has right now about a 3-to-1 cash-on-hand advantage over Republicans,” said Van Hollen. “We’re not clear how many seats the NRCC claims to have in play … let’s just say they have 40.”
One problem with that stratiegy is that it is based on past election plans. One thing that we saw in the last Presidential election is that third party blog and video sites, as well as third party online forums are more influential and pass information about candidates faster than the election teams can control, regardless of how much money they have to throw around.
Rallies and town halls are still important, as well as meeting face to face with constituents, but in the next election cycle viral videos and infomation discussed between voters online, supplemented by news through mainstream news agencies, will play a greater part in election results I think.
If that does happen all incumbents, regardless of party affiliation, will have to answer some hard questions to their constituants about their decisions while holding office.

Posted by: bobtherepublican | December 17, 2009, 2:47 pm 2:47 pm

Either way we lose.

Posted by: Huh | December 17, 2009, 3:06 pm 3:06 pm

This is a joke right—-they can’t possibly believe this with what they are trying to do to this country!!!!!!

Posted by: countrygirl_74 | December 17, 2009, 3:13 pm 3:13 pm

Van Hollen is right, 2010 will not be like 1994; It will be worse. I wouldn’t be surpised to see the dems lose twice as many seats in 2010 as they did in 1994

Posted by: DJ | December 17, 2009, 4:42 pm 4:42 pm

If you dont start doing what the American people that elected you want it will be worse than 1994, you try to pass healthcare that is not the health care we want, although we do want health care but not this monstrosity that does nothing for people still letting the insurance companies charge what they want and forcing people by law to have to buy it,sad sad sad , but 2010 is comming fast. And you aint prepared again. Kill the bill.

Posted by: earl | December 17, 2009, 6:54 pm 6:54 pm

The Dems have no clue,they are in charge and will pay for their disregard of the will of the American people.I don’t think blaming George Bush in 2010 is going to cut it.

Posted by: Johnny L | December 18, 2009, 9:15 am 9:15 am

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