By Julie Percha

Feb 25, 2010 12:45pm

Health Care Summit Fact Check: Will Premiums Go Up?

ABC's Jonathan Karl reports: President Obama and Republican Sen. Lamar Alexander made competing claims about how the Democratic plan would affect premiums. Sen. Alexander says premiums for those in the individual insurance (non-employer) market will go up an average of 10 to 13 percent. The president says it would only go up for those choosing better coverage and that “The costs for families for the same type of coverage that they're currently receiving would go down 14 percent to 20 percent.” Both cite a Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analysis of the Senate bill done at the request of Senator Evan Bayh. Who is right? Well, the CBO analysis does say, flatly, that “the average premium per person covered (including dependents) for new nongroup policies would be about 10 percent to 13 percent higher in 2016 than the average premium for nongroup coverage in that same year under current law.” This affects the roughly 17 percent of Americans below age 65 who do not get their insurance from their employers. Why are premiums going up?  CBO cites the combination of three factors:  Premiums would be 27-30% higher because coverage would be better. The law, for example, requires that all policies cover maternity care, prescription drugs, mental health & substance abuse and no denial of coverage for pre-existing conditions. Premiums would be 7 to 10 percent lower b/c of changes to the way the individual market is structured. Premiums would be 7 to 10 percent lower b/c of an influx of more people, many of them healthy, into the insurance market.

The net effect of those three factors: Premiums would be 10 to 13 percent higher for the average policyholders. President Obama’s claim of premium reductions of “14 to 20 percent” comes from adding factors two and three. The problem: You can’t ignore factor one. That’s why CBO’s conclusion is that, on average, people in the individual market would see their premiums go up 10 to 13 percent. You can keep your old, less generous plan, but only until 2018. But it doesn’t end there. The bill also includes generous subsidies for families with incomes under $88,000.  Those who get taxpayer subsidies would see their out-of-pocket premium cost reduced by “roughly 56 to 59 percent.”  And 57 percent of those in the individual market would be eligible for subsidies. Three final, important points: For the much larger group of Americans who get their insurance from their employers, CBO says premiums would be "zero to three percent” lower than under current law. None of this takes into account the new tax on so-called “Cadillac” plans. CBO says the tax would be passed on to policyholders in the form of higher premiums. CBO says its estimates include “a substantial degree of uncertainly.” Not even the wizards at CBO can say for certain what will happen to your premiums.

 

User Comments

so it appears once again the big o is full of bull.we really are on the prcipiece of a double dip recession, unfortunately i see it comming, why on earth would we be doing health care now and taxing the tar out of people who create jobs? dumb dumb dumb

Posted by: catman | February 25, 2010, 1:15 pm 1:15 pm

I am real tired of being the patsy for the poor, when I myself, have only the basic necessities, and I WORK for what I have.

Posted by: Rick McDaniel | February 25, 2010, 1:56 pm 1:56 pm

Maybe if the premiums for the executives “cadillac” plans can be raised 10%-15% then we could reach a null increase. It’s not like they can’t afford it and they certainly get a lot of perks for that money.

Posted by: Wayne | February 25, 2010, 2:26 pm 2:26 pm

Socialism doesn’t work.. of course we will pay more. Only a fool would think otherwise. We will always have a top heavy group that sucks off the rest of us, why shouldn’t they? We will always encourage politically correct illegal immigration, why not sneak in? When dependent and criminal behavoir is encouraged it will not only continue but will increase.

Posted by: Jpublic | February 25, 2010, 2:44 pm 2:44 pm

The one thing everyone is forgetting is,the tax payer is paying now for the people that don’t pay.
Its called a users fee,when you have
a hospital stay the fee is passed own to the insurance co.

Posted by: Elvin Echols | February 25, 2010, 3:06 pm 3:06 pm

Jpublic – So true.

Posted by: War919 | February 25, 2010, 3:13 pm 3:13 pm

When are these politicians going to get it through their thick skulls? We can’t afford health care because they tax the crap out of us as it is. I lose 35% instantly off of my check, then I have to pay sales tax on everything I buy. What the crap????

Posted by: Kevin | February 25, 2010, 3:20 pm 3:20 pm

I WANT A “public option” INCLUDED OR I DON’T GIVE A DAM IF THIS BILL GOES THROUGH, I HAVE HEALTH INS. FROM MY JOB BUT I REALLY DON’T AS I HAVE A HIGH DEDUCTABLE PLAN AND GET nothing UNILT I REACH 5K A YEAR WHICH OF COURSE I never DO SO WITHOUT PUBLIC OPTION I DON’T GIVE A CRAP ABOUT ALL OF THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: jOjO | February 25, 2010, 3:38 pm 3:38 pm

What about our working class people who cannot afford the high cost of ins. premiums and pay their fair share of taxes. Which do you choose when it comes down to house payment, utilities, food and gas to get to work? Most of us will have to give up our health insurance if employers cannot afford insurance increases.

Posted by: Kaye | February 25, 2010, 4:07 pm 4:07 pm

I want a new house. Can we work that in the healthcare plan also?

Posted by: Bert | February 25, 2010, 4:10 pm 4:10 pm

Premiums go up? My husband has individual insurance and the rates have gone up 67% in two years to over $4800 a year. And so does his co-pay and deductible up from $1200 to $2500. And his insurance co has CEO that received over 24 million in salary. That’s about $100,00 a day or $12,000 an hour or $2,000 a minute. That is why we need reform! Wake up America!!!!

Posted by: Dee | February 25, 2010, 4:16 pm 4:16 pm

Of course our premiums will go up under Obama’s plan! You can’t insure 30 million people and think it will remain the same. The people that are NOT in UNIONS and retired people will have to pay extra for the “Cadillac Tax” to make up the difference. Not fair !! Need to take one or two items a year, this year cut out pre-existing conditions, next year-donut hole and etc. not ram a 2500 page bill with all kind of loop holes and expenses in it on the American people!! Thanks for the Fact check ABC news!

Posted by: TXAR.55 | February 25, 2010, 4:28 pm 4:28 pm

So the premiums would be about 10% higher by 2016… Not instantly, BUT BY TWO THOUSAND AND SIXTEEN!!! Not for 6 more years!! Currently the rates are going up 25% to 40% A YEAR!! So, YEAH for Obama’s plan… less than a 2% increase per year to implement a better plan rather than the 25-50% a year we have been seeing for less coverage every year.

Posted by: RSC | February 25, 2010, 4:40 pm 4:40 pm

Absolutely, without question.

Posted by: Rick McDaniel | February 25, 2010, 5:26 pm 5:26 pm

Just think how many people could be helped (and I’m not talking about the lazy losers who want to live off the govt. I talking about hard working americans who try and are having a tough time making ends meet) if all that rediculous bank bonus money was used to provide healthcare for people until they can get back on their feet. Isn’t that the Christian thing to do? Afterall we do go around bloating about the good ole USA being based on Christian principles don’t we?

Posted by: Jackson | February 25, 2010, 5:42 pm 5:42 pm

Lets see here, if you look at the CBO numbers poated above than it is apparent that the real people benifiting from this program are the people making less than less than 88 thousand per family. Can you say “REDISTRUBITION OF WEALTH”.

Posted by: Billy Bob | February 25, 2010, 5:47 pm 5:47 pm

Jackson, charity should come from the heart, not a government mandate.

Posted by: partynot | February 25, 2010, 5:54 pm 5:54 pm

jackson..just think how much could be done with the bonuses to fannie mae and freddie mac and all the money that went to gm and chrysler, acorn and consessions to the s.e.i.u. along with that you mentioned. its time to kick every last one of these crooks out of office and start over as you cant single out the banks without examining money doled out to freinds of the president.

Posted by: catman | February 25, 2010, 5:58 pm 5:58 pm

I personally don’t believe in forced philanthropy.

Posted by: partynot | February 25, 2010, 6:00 pm 6:00 pm

If there are savings to be found in Medicare then fix it. Medicare is going broke. I’ve been paying into the system for years and it appears like I will never see it AND I’m going to have to pay more towards it. Obama is a joke and the fact that neither he nor anyone in his administration have any private business experience is more obvious every day. The Underemployment is up to 20% which means 1 out of every 5 Americans either can’t find a job or have a full-time job when they want a full-time one. And what does Obama focus on…health care. Not jobs but a new entitlement program.

Posted by: Philly Matt | February 25, 2010, 6:06 pm 6:06 pm

PARTYNOT WRITES: Jackson, charity should come from the heart, not a government mandate.
—————————-
I’m afraid this country has lost its heart. When are we going to sing “We are the World” for our own children?

Posted by: Jackson | February 25, 2010, 6:14 pm 6:14 pm

Your premium goes up 10 percent, but your coverage improves drastically. Emergency Room hidden costs are allayed, more Americans are covered, your insurance value per dollar improves.
Do we really believe that our health, that our families’ health is not worth paying an extra 10%?

Posted by: tsameti | February 25, 2010, 6:17 pm 6:17 pm

Posted by: Elvin Echols:
The one thing everyone is forgetting is,the tax payer is paying now for the people that don’t pay.
Its called a users fee,when you have
a hospital stay the fee is passed own to the insurance co.
——————
The bill doesn’t stop that, we would still be paying for the uninsured, and paying more for our own insurance and those that pay would be paying more for some people that already are paying for their insurance but will get subsides after the bill goes through and more for insurance for those that meet the criteria and are uninsured and get subsidies.
That means more, not less cost.

Posted by: wyn | February 25, 2010, 6:17 pm 6:17 pm

The mere fact that we have to have an ACT of Congress to determine what essential health care benefits are and what should be covered or not covered scares me to death. Abortion today, birth control tomorrow.
The Federal government should not, does not need to be involved in determine who much insurance, if any I wish to carry.

Posted by: scott jeffries | February 25, 2010, 6:20 pm 6:20 pm

Phily Matt::
If there are savings to be found in Medicare then fix it.
———————–
The whole idea behind savings from fraud and abuse in Medicare is to have that pay for other things besides Medicare.
The GAO reports do not say there is $50 billion in abuse and fraud in Medicare, they say $17 billion for improper payments, and not all of that is fraud or abuse according to the GAO, some are legitimate charges.

Posted by: wyn | February 25, 2010, 6:23 pm 6:23 pm

Fighting fraud and abuse in Medicare does not come for free either, so some of any savings, which will not be $17 billion, much less $50 billion would need to be spent on fighting the fraud. Those are part of the oft criticized administrative charges that private insurance companies already have.

Posted by: wyn | February 25, 2010, 6:25 pm 6:25 pm

Law enforcement says that health care fraud, for all health care in the country, not just medicare but all health care, is estimated at from $60 to $100 billion.
That includes public health care, and private health care.

Posted by: wyn | February 25, 2010, 6:26 pm 6:26 pm

And if Democrats think that 51 vote majority to pass laws is so great is so great, why did they put all those provisions in that require a 3/5ths vote majority to amend or repeal, for this and all future Congresses.
That applies to many things, for one the Medicare Advisory board that sets benefits.

Posted by: wyn | February 25, 2010, 6:32 pm 6:32 pm

Jackson::PARTYNOT WRITES:
I’m afraid this country has lost its heart. When are we going to sing “We are the World” for our own children?
——————
If this was about being kind and compassionate the bill would not be setting benefits for people based on a medicare advisory board, that can only be repealed and amended by a 3/5 vote. Then ripping off medicare to pay for other people.
The Dems don’t even have the 3/5 majority to pass the bill, but want a 3/5 majority amend or repeal some part of the bill.
That tells you how bad this bill is.

Posted by: wyn | February 25, 2010, 6:36 pm 6:36 pm

do we really believe our families health is not worth paying an extra 10 pct?….get real it will never only be 10%..it will significantly more and will meet a constitutional challange while they are gouging those lucky enough to be working. what a freaking joke.PLEASE FOCUS ON JOBS.

Posted by: catman | February 25, 2010, 6:48 pm 6:48 pm

My family and I are one of those above the $250K and I am ok with Healthcare reform. My premiums have gone up. My co-pay went up 115% under employer plan. So thank you for finally breaking the GREED Market call Insurance.
This debate is no different than that of oil. Republicans want to keep oil and want to keep insurance as-is. Who do you think is padding the Republican campaigns and pockets. Can someone from a republican state, has read and understands the bill, tell me they do not want to reform insurance?

Posted by: Rich | February 25, 2010, 6:52 pm 6:52 pm

rich…more money went to the dems.big pharma also gave big money to the dems.go to the emergancy room for free health care like my brother does and he receives top notch care but dont make pay for it so he casn walk in the front door instead of the back door.

Posted by: catman | February 25, 2010, 7:14 pm 7:14 pm

To Wayne and the other “anti-socialists”, I guess we should abolish the current “socialistic” “big government takeovers” such as unemployment insurance, medicare, social security and the veterans administrations?

Posted by: novelli | February 25, 2010, 7:42 pm 7:42 pm

If Obama was really running health care, it would be free for everyone. How? Easy. He would just borrow a few more trillion from the Chinese (or maybe quadtrillion). We are turning into such a financial mess that the Chinese wouldn’t want to foreclose.

Posted by: Kimche | February 25, 2010, 7:52 pm 7:52 pm

So why are premiums going up on individual and group policies as we speak, and legislation has not even been passed?

Posted by: threeriverscrossing | February 25, 2010, 7:54 pm 7:54 pm

America can’t afford healthcare but we can afford a 670 billion dollar defense budget!! Annually!! We definitely have our priorities straight and to think the same defense budget provides members of Congress and federal employee’s health coverage… Oh my God I have socialized medical coverage!! Thanks Taxpayers!!

Posted by: Martin | February 25, 2010, 8:05 pm 8:05 pm

So why are Republicans in Congress not forfeiting their own government and tax payer paid health care benefits for life? Why are Republican members of Congress on government managed health care benefits and not paying their own way?

Posted by: threeriverscrossing | February 25, 2010, 8:07 pm 8:07 pm

Dee..if that is the case…why not just pay out of pocket or change you insurer? Hmmm?/

Posted by: horseforfeathers | February 25, 2010, 10:52 pm 10:52 pm

Is the Cadillac Tax still in the bill?
Obama said:
1. It will not add to the deficit – False
2. It will not pay for abortion – False
3. It will not pay for illegals – False
4. If you make less than $250k your taxes will not go up – False
Why do we believe a word he says?

Posted by: JoeS | February 25, 2010, 11:36 pm 11:36 pm

Boy, you people who want to keep status quo, I hope you all have really good high paying jobs. You’re going to need it if health reform doesn’t pass. As more and more folks who can no longer afford their insurance coverage drop off of the insurance company rolls, the insurance companies are going to continue to raise your premiums in order to maintain their own bottom line. That means you can look forward to continual yearly increases for longer than you can imagine. So you folks making that $150,000 and up a year, get ready to pay a third or more of what you make to Angela Braly and her like minded cohorts.

Posted by: devilkev | February 25, 2010, 11:53 pm 11:53 pm

I suspect that a government that refuses to control its own salaries will not be able to keep premiums from going up. and taxes as well.
Did you know that the average civilian federal employee salary is $70K? The average wage/salary on the street is but $40K. Obama is adding federal employees daily and Obamacare will add even more, maybe even new agencies!
A lot of the Obama additions to the federal payroll are well above the $70K level. I know he will be a one term president, but one term may sink the nation!
Our only hope is to clean the House in 2010, and I mean clean it! If we can accomplish that we may be able to clip the wings of the Senate and Obama!

Posted by: Ed Taylor | February 26, 2010, 1:36 am 1:36 am

I have to tell you this. That I talked to two people from Austraila, they said Austrailia is a socialistic government and healthcare costs are bad everywhere.
People who pay taxes can’t use the system until they spend all their money. people who don’t pay taxes get to use system first. People who save and work hard all their lives get nothing until their poor.
She said the Boat people from Indonesia get to use the system even though they put nothing into it.
The system I am talking about is medical and Pensions, food stamps.

Posted by: vincent browne | February 26, 2010, 2:25 am 2:25 am

President Obama, once again, twists the facts to support his side. I’m so tired of all the campaign lies and broken promises. Mr. President, we will judge your presidency not only on your words, but also on your actions. So far, not so good.

Posted by: Jack Smith | February 26, 2010, 7:35 am 7:35 am

We need reform now (Take my money)
Oh, it starts in 3 years (so you need my money now)
National Insurance Program (Rangel called it that)
Does nothing to control the spiralling cost of health care!
No, we don’t need this. Democrats are about to finish off their party with reconcilliation.

Posted by: lfrichar | February 26, 2010, 8:18 am 8:18 am

Who needs a fact check. I know my premiums have gone up every year for the past 7-8 years. And America needs a fact check. Have we become so moronic that we need someone to tell us that we are getting less in our paycheck every years to cover health insurance?

Posted by: Chuck | February 26, 2010, 8:29 am 8:29 am

So Obama is lying again?

Posted by: Mac | February 26, 2010, 8:47 am 8:47 am

so..it’s like this..you’ll pay more for your All American cheeseburger, but there will be .0025% more premium meat. The lettuce will be taken off and you’ll only get half a tomato, but we’ll add more ketchup, while simultaneously reducing some of the special sauce, removing 50% of the sesame seeds, but adding an extra onion sliver. The guy directly behind (but not beside) you in line has the right to take a bite out of your Uncle Sam burger, equal to, but not greater than, the area of the inside of Mick Jagger’s mouth, but that won’t start until 2017, and those who own Rolling Stone’s albums are exempt, while those who own KISS albums will be phased in over a period not to exceed 4 years…any questions?

Posted by: cindy | February 26, 2010, 9:02 am 9:02 am

YES THEY WILL…..unless the bill is defeated.

Posted by: Rick McDaniel | February 26, 2010, 9:02 am 9:02 am

I’d like to see the news make this a front page story. But then again, the golden child Obama can never be questioned. He is allowed to lie.

Posted by: Mac | February 26, 2010, 9:19 am 9:19 am

As a raving conservative I expected views I violently oppose. Unemployment is worse among the large block of people that voted, enmass, for Obama. This does elevate the need for governmental rescue in health care. One would expect an expansion of the need to make the bill easier to pass. That is not happening, and it surprises me.
Does the liberal community nay-say any relationship of Obama’s agenda to the Cloward-Piven strategy?

Posted by: Al | February 26, 2010, 9:29 am 9:29 am

Why won’t ABC put this on the front page?

Posted by: Mac | February 26, 2010, 9:48 am 9:48 am

I agree that any subsidies for families of four making $88K or in that vicinity makes no sense in a nation running incredible deficits. But for those making the high end of the subsidy range are NOT getting subsidies reduced by “56% to 59%”, since the subsidies are on a sliding scale.
This article is therefore misleading, so I can’t make much of a comment since I’m not sure how much spin was put on the other numbers provided.

Posted by: The_Mick | February 26, 2010, 9:59 am 9:59 am

What I want to know is whether Paul Ryan was correct in his synopsis of the “budget gimmicks” in the Bill.
Mr Ryan says that the CBO was forced to score the bill on the basis of 10 years of revenue to the government but then was told to only consider 6 years of expenses.
Is that correct ? If it is – why does the media not point that out ? If its not – why doesnt the media point that out ?

Posted by: undecided2012 | February 26, 2010, 10:32 am 10:32 am

The Republicans made the most sense, scrap the bill and start tackling one problem at a time. First eliminate fraud and save money, second, tort reform, and save money through less defensive medical tests. The current porky, slop bill produced by these pompous elitist politicians is against the will of the American people.

Posted by: Downwithsocialism | February 26, 2010, 10:40 am 10:40 am

always keep in mind that it was taxes that founded this country….
think about it?

Posted by: Patriott | February 26, 2010, 11:23 am 11:23 am

We would have no budget pickle if the Federal government would stay within its Constitutional limits of power. The States are fully capable of working out plans that meet the needs of each State’s citizens.
The price of freedom is self-reliance. Dependence upon the government for health care is slavery.
The Federal government has no Constitutional role at all in the provision of health care, save for the military. End Medicare and Medicaid – that will fix the budget.

Posted by: P. R. Vonfourt | February 26, 2010, 11:30 am 11:30 am

The problem with these disgusting people who argue against this as ‘forced philanthropy’ is that we are not asking you to do this out of the goodness of your heart: we are TELLING you jerks that if we don’t take care of everyone in our society, we will continue to have REAL problems like crime, homelessness, and domestic terrorism. We don’t care if you think it’s ‘socialist’ or evil, we just want to keep society together for more than the rich.
Anyone making more than 80K a year can easily afford to pay more taxes, unless that is they’re living way beyond their means!! Sounds like your fault if you can’t afford your house and cars and kids on top of the reasonable taxes being asked of you to sustain the public systems we all use, EVEN YOU.

Posted by: "Bob" | February 26, 2010, 3:57 pm 3:57 pm

Dr. Sanjay Gupta says if we include all the tests done to ward off lawsuits and eliminate the extra days of hospital stays to ward off lawsuits expenditures for healthcare would be decreased 600-700 billion dollars annually. Now tell me tort reform wouldn’t decrease the costs of delivering medical care.

Posted by: gollywiggle | February 26, 2010, 4:40 pm 4:40 pm

The 2-3% of total healthcare costs expressed by President Obama only includes the amount of lawsuit settlements awarded annually. So take off another 2-3% of trillions of dollars spent annually if we only get rid of the frivilous lawsuits directed at medical professionals. And remember the people being sued had good intentions. Then consider that no amount of money has ever relaced a loss of life or health.

Posted by: gollywiggle | February 26, 2010, 4:44 pm 4:44 pm

partynot; If we give all our income to the government what philanthropy can we engage in. Taxation takes away our financial flexibility.

Posted by: gollywiggle | February 26, 2010, 4:46 pm 4:46 pm

One thing no one has mentioned. You think the increase of 10 t0 13% is bad, what you haven’t considered is that your going to start paying taxes on this in 2011, five years befoe you ever see a thing when it ocme to insurance. Certainly we need health care reform and I support starting with steps like tort reform, then taking the Anti-trust exemmption away. Insurance cost increase at least 5 to 8 percent just from un-necessary X-ray, C-scasn etc just to pretect the doctors from stupid lawsuits. What we need to do is make every politician accountable for their actions. If they make promises in their campaign that they can’t keep, they should keep their mouths shut but be assured they will not be in the next term.

Posted by: mo mule | February 27, 2010, 1:14 am 1:14 am

Nothing is coming right out of your pocket. You probably are someone who gets a tax refund. But as a republican you will look at it like this is coming right out of your pocket. Health insurance rates are going to keep going up regardless. If nothing is done now rates will just go up much more and much faster. It will be in the corrupt hands of the profit driven insurance companies. We have already seen a huge premium increase in the last ten years. Stay as uninformed as you want it will not stop those who know how much this country needs health care reform to get done.

Posted by: Vicki | February 27, 2010, 11:01 pm 11:01 pm

obama is working on health care and jobs moron. Just because W. could only handle one thing every 4 years doesn’t mean everyone else is like that. The main two republican arguments are total garbage. 1. premiums will go up….PREMIUMS ARE ALREADY GOING UP…CONSTANTLY. 2. This is a gov’t seizure of the economy. No, a gov’t seizure of the economy was W. and cheney handing out no-bid contracts to all their friends…then ironing out the patriot act to limit americans freedom. Take a look in the mirror before you just start blindly hating the next guy.

Posted by: mark | March 11, 2010, 2:26 pm 2:26 pm

Solving the problem: Govern by the Constitution of the United States of America 1. Reduce the size of government by 65% 2. Dismantle Unions- their time has gone. 3. Fair Tax. Problem solved

Posted by: Russ | March 11, 2010, 9:19 pm 9:19 pm

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