Geithner: Much Lower Risk of Double-Dip Recession Now Than Any Other Time In Last Year
We interviewed Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner today for an exclusive interview to air on THIS WEEK Sunday.
We talked about the new unemployment numbers; the shortcomings of various administration proposals to help shore up jobs and the housing crisis; the out of control national debt; and whether he assumes any responsibility for the massive distrust in government – what President Obama referred to in his State of the Union address as a “deficit of trust.”
The economy remains in dire straits, with news today that the nation's employers reduced their payrolls by 20,000 last month. Together with baseline revisions indicating that 8.4 million jobs have been lost during the recession so far – and not 7 million, as previously thought – the jobs numbers have caused fresh anxiety.
This week at the World Economic Forum in Davos there was much talk about whether we’re in the midst of a double-dip recession.
George Soros, for instance, warned “there is a need for additional stimulus. The political resistance to it increases the chances of a double dip in the economy in 2011 and after that."
So I asked Geithner about the possibility of a double-dip recession.
“”We have much, much lower risk of that today than at any time over the last 12 months or so,” Geithner said. “Again just think of where we are. We are in an economy that was growing at the rate of almost 6 percent of GDP in the fourth quarter of last year. The most rapid rate in six years. So we are beginning the process of healing.”
Geithner went on to say that “we have the capacity — the government — to try to make sure we are reinforcing that process. And we help guide this economy back to the point where we're not just growing again, but we've seen growth translate into jobs. And that we're reaching the lives of all Americans.”
You can watch some of our interview on World News with Diane Sawyer and then of course on Sunday on THIS WEEK!
- jpt
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Senator Stuart Smalley takes on Axelrod:
—Sen. Al Franken ripped into White House senior adviser David Axelrod this week during a tense, closed-door session with Senate Democrats.
Five sources who were in the room tell POLITICO that Franken criticized Axelrod for the administration’s failure to provide clarity or direction on health care and the other big bills it wants Congress to enact.
The sources said Franken was the most outspoken senator in the meeting, which followed President Barack Obama’s question-and-answer session with Senate Democrats at the Newseum on Wednesday. But they also said the Minnesotan wasn’t the only angry Democrat in the room.
“There was a lot of frustration in there,” said a Democratic senator who declined to be identified.
“People were hot,” another Democratic senator said.—(Politico)
Posted by: Obama: Celebrity Over Leadership | February 5, 2010, 4:41 pm 4:41 pm
Perhaps Pelosi and Reid might actually start working with the Republicans instead of shutting them out.
—Rep. Paul D. Ryan says he is determined to make sure the Republican Party is viewed as “the alternative party, not the opposition party.”
That is a goal President Obama embraced when he visited House Republicans at their policy retreat in Baltimore last week, and he singled out Ryan as someone he would like to work with — even mentioning budget legislation the Wisconsin Republican co-wrote.
Released two days before the unusual back-and-forth session between Obama and the GOP, the bill sponsored by Ryan and five other House members would seek to reduce the deficit and spur economic growth by cutting the tax rate on corporations, shifting future Medicare and Medicaid beneficiaries to private insurance plans, and both raising the retirement age gradually to 70 and reducing the growth of benefits to make Social Security solvent. Even DEMOCRATS HAVE ACKNOWLEDGED that it is one of the few plans offered by a member of either party that would lower the long-term budget deficit.—(WaPo)
Posted by: Hope and Change | February 5, 2010, 4:46 pm 4:46 pm
This seasonal bad weather will have a huge impact on the job market. Positive signs in the job market won’t surface until spring.
Posted by: Jeff | February 5, 2010, 5:18 pm 5:18 pm
I don’t really buy that the 4th Q. numbers were that positive.. if you consider – rebuilding inventory and consumption due to stimulus – we’re a long way from that Tip..y place.
Even if the numbers are good at the end of 2010, the pain of the lower end of the U.S. population is going to result in a lot of dissatisfaction and poverty.
It’s a decline of the middle class.. and the upper lowers.. it’s very dangerous to the fabric of our society and it is exactly what a President Obama was elected to curtail!
Posted by: DontGet818OnMeNow | February 5, 2010, 5:24 pm 5:24 pm
Rep. Paul D. Ryan says he is determined to make sure the Republican Party is viewed as “the alternative party, not the opposition party.”
—
They’re “alternative” all right.
The Hill:
Ryan’s plan would lower government’s costs only by “shifting a lot of the risk and expected cost onto individuals and their families,” Orszag added.
(psst…his plan would strictly limit Medicare benefits)
Posted by: progressive mama | February 5, 2010, 5:55 pm 5:55 pm
“Ryan’s plan would lower government’s costs only by “shifting a lot of the risk and expected cost onto individuals and their families,” Orszag added.”
Isn’t that where it should be? Under the liberal plan, the risk and cost is shifted onto a small percentage of tax payers.
Posted by: Huh? | February 5, 2010, 6:02 pm 6:02 pm
So we should listen to the guy that didn’t pay his taxes because he couldn’t figure out TurboTax?
Posted by: phillip | February 5, 2010, 6:38 pm 6:38 pm
this guy is a complete fraud.. along with the rest of the Obama administration
Posted by: StarveTheBeast | February 5, 2010, 7:20 pm 7:20 pm
No one I know saw any glimmer of that supposed jump in GNP………….just another fairy tale from the spin doctors…………
Posted by: Paul Mennick | February 5, 2010, 8:11 pm 8:11 pm
I don’t know about anyone else, but I believe everything Tim Geithner says.
Posted by: LongT | February 5, 2010, 8:14 pm 8:14 pm
Sleazy….
Posted by: LongT | February 5, 2010, 8:33 pm 8:33 pm
He is painting arosy picture. He deserves a bonus more than some incompetent wall street executives.
Posted by: gjkotw01 | February 5, 2010, 8:33 pm 8:33 pm
Sorry folks, the economy is going to recover and expansion is in the cards…
Markets correct when there are bubbles and markets expand with new innovations and speculation, so be it.
Posted by: threeriverscrossing | February 5, 2010, 8:45 pm 8:45 pm
The guy is even creepy looking—-why would anyone believe this liar? Are people reallyt that dumb?
Posted by: horseforfeathers | February 5, 2010, 8:59 pm 8:59 pm
Whenever I see this guy on TV, I feel dirty and have to take a shower to feel clean again.
Posted by: Mike Jones | February 5, 2010, 9:52 pm 9:52 pm
He has been wrong about so many things, why would we believe him now. It would be great if he is right. Of course we are now ushering in the sovereign debt problem, reserve currency questions, and credit rating worries. I don’t think we have seen anything yet.
Posted by: Huh | February 5, 2010, 9:54 pm 9:54 pm
I see a lot of people still hoping for failure. LOL When will you learn.
Posted by: Jim Bob | February 5, 2010, 10:05 pm 10:05 pm
WONDER IF GEITHER IS ANY KIN TO REV JEREMIAH? THEY BOTH LOOK WEIRD..
Posted by: rking | February 5, 2010, 10:16 pm 10:16 pm
I hope like HECK Geithner is right, but there is just something about him that hits me the wrong way.
It’s not politics, I just can’t trust him. Part of it is his tax problems, but it’s more than that.
Let’s hope the people giving him the numbers and data are right.
Posted by: malcat | February 5, 2010, 10:18 pm 10:18 pm
I don’t have anything against the Obama administration but I do think if there is a recovery it will be temporary. The problem is the fundamentals of our economy are very weak. Our citizens have sky rocketing debt and our economy has been outsourced progressively for years – it doesn’t take rocket science to understand that will have an effect.
So if we have a recovery it will be based on mass psychology, not real improvement, and will only lead in longer term further instability since people will continue to expand in debt. Attempts to “stimulate” the economy are also encouraging long term failure as they are encouraging people to spend when they don’t have real money to spend.
Posted by: DK | February 5, 2010, 10:47 pm 10:47 pm
In the clip on the nightly news Geithner said everything was getting better yet his head was nodding side to side as if he was saying no, no, no. Very odd body language. Interesting.
Posted by: wow | February 5, 2010, 11:26 pm 11:26 pm
There is no way this ends well. The debt is staggering. I have yet to hear a scenario under which it can be managed.
As interest rates rise inevitably and the wanton spending continues we will be swamped.
Everyone will suffer the consequences. Not one will escape as the whole house of cards tumbles down.
History is replete with examples of nations that spent beyond their means and are no more. What will replace our late great country?
It doesn’t matter who caused it… The time for action is now. But there is no action, just more spending programs… And the President seems not to even realize the danger…
Posted by: Quo Warranto | February 5, 2010, 11:28 pm 11:28 pm
We can’t just keep spending and printing money out of thin air without making anything. We import everything. We export our jobs. The party can’t go on forever.
Posted by: Auntie B | February 5, 2010, 11:35 pm 11:35 pm
Geithner — Pay your taxes, then we might start believing you!!
Posted by: TheLoyalOpposition | February 5, 2010, 11:53 pm 11:53 pm
In case some of you missed it. The Supreme court handed our country over to the worlds largest multi national corporations. Hugo Chavez can effectivelt buy Senators and congressmen who will do his bidding. Wht are Americans not screaming in the streets to protest. Think of ot this way. The UNITED STATES of AMERICA’s citizens will be stomped by Proctor and Gambles candidate. Why? Cscause Hugo Chavez abd the foreign leaders of other countries have 100′s of billions to spend. Bt far more than ordibary tax payer combined can contribute. It’s time to get really scared. The SUPREME COURT’s decison has opened the door for foreign leaders to buy our politicians.
It’s true and it scares the hell out of me. Anyone who is still a Republican can not explain why. At least not those
who can read and pronounce the word vote. It’s apparent the Republicans lie, distorting facts and that’s their plan to power. If McCain had won the election and not Obama he would have immeadiately frozen spendimg. That wou;d have meant the loss of millions more jobs at a tome when job creation is job one. Obama is a pragmatist. A president who frustrates his own advisors. He’s not the fastest gun. He’s the deepest thinker. Obama knows how important it is for him tp be right as opposed to popular. When electiom tme rolls around the Republicans will be the party of criticism. That will not br enough. I believe they will find just saying no and misrepresenting facts
will not win them a majority in either the House or Senate. John Fund tells Republicans to lie in the face of truisms. Just keep lying. Fund believe the majotity of American voters can’t read or pronounce the word vote. Tom Trantanko opened the Tea Bag party in Tennessee and there was no American Flag to be seen.
Learn how to read.
SECREG666
Posted by: secreg666 | February 6, 2010, 1:07 am 1:07 am
This idiot has lied to us already, and we’re supposed to believe him now?
1) We don’t believe anything his MORONIC BOSS says,
2) we don’t believe anything The Congress says, and
3) we sure as hell don’t believe this TAX CHEAT!
Posted by: Laughing_All_the____Way | February 6, 2010, 2:55 am 2:55 am
What we saw in 2008/2009 was not a correction. The real figures are that one out of every six people are unemployed in our country. There are unfunded liabilities of over $200,000 per person. A REAL correction is going to be needed to get the attention of the folks holding the purse strings in Washington, both Democrat and Republican. Democrat and Republican are both synonyms meaning “Spend now, pay later”. Get ready, later is almost here.
Posted by: WeAreNotInKansasAnymore | February 6, 2010, 6:31 am 6:31 am
Support for cutting federal government spending
Spending Type %Budget Support cuts
Social Security 19.6% 2%
Military 18.7% 18%
Unemployment 16.1% 15%
Medicare 12.8% 6%
Other health care* 10.4% 10%
Interest on Debt 4.6% 10%
State Department 1.5% 28%
Veterans 1.5% 2%
Anti-terrorism 1.2% 17%
Agriculture 0.7% 12%
Energy 0.7% 14%
Crime / Justice 0.7% 10%
Environment 0.3% 16%
Science 0.2% 14%
Posted by: Flash Override | February 6, 2010, 7:19 am 7:19 am
Actually folks, the % of GDP we pay in taxes is the lowest since 1950. The National Debt is NOT so large that it can’t be handled, although Bush’s debt alone means 10 cents out of every tax dollar goes to pay the interest on what he borrowed.
But there IS a real problem. Americans are so selfish and short-sighted they pretend that if less tax money goes to government, less spending will occur. Even Reagan’s Treasury Secretary, on Bill Moyers’ Journal on PBS this week, said that doesn’t work.
Consequently we have people still yelling for lower taxes and the GOP riding that wave as well.
But guess what, lower tax folks? GAME OVER! Taxes MUST be increased or we will be borrowing to pay the interest on the money we previously borrowed and, eventually, we WON’T be able to pay our debts.
At that point the nations holding trillions of dollars worth of debt papers will begin dumping them like radioactive waste and we’ll look at the 1930′s Depression as the “Good Old Days”!
Posted by: The_Mick | February 6, 2010, 8:13 am 8:13 am
What do you expect Geithner to say? The Economy is Lousy? The Policies of Obama have failed? You think he wants to lose his job? 17 + million out of work and Obama is hosting a football party for 75 people,must be nice to be a rich elitist?.Why is the government even in the job market,it is not the function of government to create jobs. CUT TAXES.
Posted by: stormerF2 | February 6, 2010, 8:24 am 8:24 am
I have a question for the obamanats. Didnt he say that he wasnt going to raise taxes on middle class? Well my taxes from the feds just went up! anyone notice that who still has a job on your pay check?
Posted by: dave | February 6, 2010, 8:57 am 8:57 am
The_mick: What money WE borrowed.. I didnt borrow a damn thing.. your Daddy did and now WE the middles class are going to pay for it. my taxes from the feds have already gone up!
Posted by: dave | February 6, 2010, 9:05 am 9:05 am
So there may not be a double dip recession, but how about the double dip, triple dip, quadriple dip, etc… bailouts?
Posted by: Daniel James | February 6, 2010, 9:14 am 9:14 am
Maybe im wrong but isnt he a ***Goldman Sachs cronie..
Posted by: gary | February 6, 2010, 9:32 am 9:32 am
Since the price of fuel keeps going up everything else goes up. for those of you who are here just for a job, you probably cant read this anyhow it has to be in spanish, should go back home and fix your own country or if your going to live here, anyone who is living and working in this country under a green card should become naturalized. For all you people who wont take jobs that are demeaning, like a custodian which is what I am, cleaning toilets for a living, get off youre ass and take jobs that the immigrants are taking. When I was a kid I use to work building houses and most of the employees where from the USA, now you look at houses being built and its all hispanic, what happened? did you become to high horse for that job and speaking of jobs… if our leaders would realize that mass transit is the way of the future and start investing in light rail-high speed trains to commute back and fourth build mass transit though out the country, that is what we need because it could be ran on renewable energy like the sun but our leaders dont want to do that, the obamanats want to run this country into the ground.
Posted by: Dave | February 6, 2010, 9:43 am 9:43 am
Damn, I keep forgeting that anything that I blog from my home I could get fired from my job. Freedom of speech is gone! MY BAD.. NO MORE BLOGS FROM THIS KID..
Posted by: Dave | February 6, 2010, 10:23 am 10:23 am
Goldman sacs cronies, who’s excuse for failing to file proper income tax was ignorance. thus appointed to tell the rest of us what our tax should be
Posted by: madmax | February 6, 2010, 10:59 am 10:59 am
Where did Obama find this guy??? He is an idiot and so is Soros.
Posted by: billy bob | February 6, 2010, 1:23 pm 1:23 pm
Has Timmy paid his taxes yet ?
Posted by: Ron | February 6, 2010, 3:39 pm 3:39 pm
Jimmy Carter had his malase. Jimmy Carter Jr. has his defict of trust. I live in Massachusetts and during the election “hope and chages” bumper stickers were everywhere, now you cannot find any. I look all the time.
I bet stormer f2 and the Mick still have theirs on!!!!!
Posted by: mike croft | February 6, 2010, 4:11 pm 4:11 pm
Is there some problem with having worked for Goldman-Sachs?
Posted by: tierra | February 6, 2010, 4:17 pm 4:17 pm
How would Geithner know, did he run it through TurboTax?
Posted by: Ed Taylor | February 6, 2010, 10:51 pm 10:51 pm
How does Geitner, Obama and most of the Democratic majority justify no actions to open up 7 Million jobs that are in the hands of illegals? This is completely irresponsible and does not protect our unemployed, legal citizens or businesses that play by the rules.
What will it take for them to do their job and protect our unemployed, citizens and businesses that play by the rules and are struggling to survive?
Posted by: Mary Steele Yorktown VA | February 6, 2010, 11:24 pm 11:24 pm
Come on people. There are 7 million jobs in the hands of illegals and 15+ Million of our own unemployed, if they wanted our people back to work they would stop the excuses and mandate employment verification for all jobs-they are hypocrites and want to spend Billions to create jobs. This is completely irresponsible. They need to do their job and get OUR unemployed back to work and get illegals out of E.R. so we don’t have to pay for them, as Obama admitted to!! What are they awaiting for? Another election with business as usual will end their errogant reign since 2006. The tides are already turning in Virginia, Massachusettes and New Jersey, they need to put up or shut up by mandating E-Verify for all jobs.
Posted by: Mary Steele Yorktown VA | February 6, 2010, 11:38 pm 11:38 pm
Believe Geithner? You have got to be kidding. These left wing economic leaders are all out to lunch. The collapse of several european nations last week, along with failing states like Calif and N.Y. and the stage is set for the greatest collapse in the history of the world and that is the U.S. is rapidly going broke and we will all be out begging for food soon as the progressives destroy our world through their mindless spending.
Posted by: rockychance | February 6, 2010, 11:45 pm 11:45 pm
Maybe Ron Paul was the answer.
Posted by: Ben | February 7, 2010, 12:23 am 12:23 am
“Believe Geithner? You have got to be kidding. These left wing economic leaders are all out to lunch.”
So Geithner is now a left-winger? I’m sorry if your meme is broken, but that’s just not going to fly.
Geither is an economic neoliberal. Thats the opposite of liberal, for the uneducated out there.
Geithner’s economic philosophy is why the liberals in congress have been calling for his scalp since the beginning.
Posted by: Flash Override | February 7, 2010, 6:51 am 6:51 am
What ever he says, I believe……………..
Posted by: LongT | February 7, 2010, 8:05 am 8:05 am
I’m being facicious, I think he’s a dodo. Sorry if I misled.
Posted by: LongT | February 7, 2010, 8:19 am 8:19 am
Believe Geithner? Coming from a tax cheat that does not know how to use Turbo Tax. This man sums up the Obama administration… Incompetence and corruption!
Posted by: RM | February 7, 2010, 8:20 am 8:20 am
This is a guy who cheated on his taxes……….Unbeliveable…………..
Posted by: LongT | February 7, 2010, 8:23 am 8:23 am
Who could believe him?….
Posted by: LongT | February 7, 2010, 8:24 am 8:24 am
What camplete… complete fool…
Posted by: LongT | February 7, 2010, 8:25 am 8:25 am
USA economy’s are groving last week i been watched news in television i heard that . im very happy for that. my name is ahmet yurdadogan and im living TRABZON province(in black sea coast of the TURKEY). in my country there is a world AMERİCANS and GERMANS are product quality euipments. a simple example: now in my house we are using hand made mixer but it is quality. this mixer had bought from USA’s nearly 45 years ago . in cold war are (mid 60) there were a american base in TRABZON province my father has bought that mixer 45 years ago from base personel.dear USA readers your economy strong like that mixer because you are making strong and quality products(cars, airplane also television movies too). you are AMERİKANS (especially turks prefer that word). and your economy will be better every day. our mixer since 45 years are using because.
Posted by: ahmet yurdadogan | February 7, 2010, 8:46 am 8:46 am
I am so tired of seeing these guys from the White House team on This Week come on and not answer important questions, instead just spewing out prepared two-minute statements and then trying to tie that in to the question at hand (when they think they need to)… Geitner is one of the worst at this, but too many others from this administration come on this show and do that too. Why not have the interviewers be a bit tougher with them… after all, where are they going to go instead? FOX? Please…
Posted by: Ryan | February 7, 2010, 9:20 am 9:20 am
Geitner made some comments about deficits not effecting the credit rating of the US. History says he is absolutely wrong. I don’t trust this guy at all.
Posted by: james | February 7, 2010, 9:25 am 9:25 am
It is not accurate about the statement made by Ruth Marcus about tax 2010 tax increases. Please read the 2009 IRS form 1040ES. Here are the first statement: “Caution – Guidance for use of the 2009 Form 1040-ES, Estimated Tax for Individuals. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (P.L. 111-5) made changes which might affect your calculation of estimated tax.(What’s New for 2009 and chapter 2) for additional information. Differential wage. The second paragraph increase all taxes for small business (owners) 10% no questions. If your adjusted gross income (AGI) for 2008 was more than $150,000 ($75,000 if your filing status for 2009 is married filing separately), substitute 110% for 100% in (2) under General rule, above. That was last year. This tax witholding has now become the new set point. Small business can only pay so much!!. I guess the 110% of the 46% that was paid in 2008. That makes that about half of every dollar I make. I still understand math 46% plus 4.6% would equal 50.6%.
Posted by: Dale Allman | February 7, 2010, 10:16 am 10:16 am
Thank you, Jake. Today after the roundtable, you said that the Sunday funnies are coming up “later.” George said “next” on many occasions (all that I recall), which was misleading since In Memoriam was actually coming next. I understand that viewers are more likely to stay tuned for the funnies than for the obituaries, especially the fallen soldiers of the week, but I felt that “next” was disingenuous every time I heard it. Thank you for the change.
Posted by: J Griggs | February 7, 2010, 12:11 pm 12:11 pm
All in all I was extremely
disappointed in this week’s “This Week”.
Your program’s opening statement and the tone of that statement regarding the fact that 20,000 jobs were lost in Jan 0f 2010 was deplorable.
As was later discussed during the round table- the public perception of
the economy is an ingredient that has the power to sway the economy. If perception is negative- the economy remains depressed- if favorable- the economy rebounds.
Why did you pass up the oppurtunity to take a more positive approach to this number? You could have compared it to the January 2009 job loss number (which as I remember was about 500,000 jobs )- with the 20,000 jobs lost in 2010 and the IMPROVEMENT (positive- economy improves) would have been obvious to all.
Shame on you for missing that opportunity.
Shame on you for being part of the problem.
Posted by: politigal | February 7, 2010, 12:13 pm 12:13 pm
Geitner has much more credibility than did G. Bush and his bunch of liars. How quickly Republicans forget about how messed up the US is because of their warped agendas. We are one year into the Obama administration and all the Republicans can do is attempt to drag the country down further so that feedble minded independents will then blame Democrats. Looks as if Hobbes was right.
Posted by: docboricua | February 7, 2010, 12:39 pm 12:39 pm
Re. Roundtable panel comments about Christmas day NW airlines bombing attempt. Why not ask your esteemed panel the question . . . so let’s say the bomber was not given his “miranda rights” and when interrogated he would not say a word – he just sat there silently. How would the roundtable panel propose getting the supposed actionable intelligence from this individual? And secondly, do we live in the United States of America or do we want to live in a country who supports the values of torture?
Posted by: Richard | February 7, 2010, 12:51 pm 12:51 pm
He’s a lap dog….Hopefully he’s paying taxes on that 6 figure salary…
Posted by: LongT | February 7, 2010, 1:10 pm 1:10 pm
Most depressions and recessions turn around after we hit bottom, so is Geithner perhaps admitting that Obama has taken us to bedrock?
Unemployment in WNC is double digit and seemingly still growing worse.
Posted by: Ed Taylor | February 7, 2010, 2:07 pm 2:07 pm
Tapper is the best host of this week since Brinkley. I had been a regular since the inception of the show,but couldn’t take George Stephanopoulos’s apparent bias.I hope he becomes the permenant host.I believe he will be as tough as Russert but less partisan.
Posted by: j elmassian | February 7, 2010, 4:30 pm 4:30 pm
I hope Jake Tapper continues to moderate “This Week”.
Posted by: June Chinigo | February 7, 2010, 11:24 pm 11:24 pm
Much Lower Risk sounds a lot like jobs saved or created.
Posted by: smartlillena | February 8, 2010, 7:15 am 7:15 am