Obama Econ Adviser: Stimulus Going into “Peak Impact” Now

ABC News’ David Chalian Reports: Democrats and Republicans have been manning their battle stations all day on the one year anniversary of the stimulus. We are seeing the intensity of a spin war that is usually saved for the height of campaign season as each side tries to define the success or failure, depending on your perspective, of the president’s $787 billion recovery bill. One criticism the White House is facing in defending the stimulus is the pace at which dollars have actually been spent.  According to recovery.gov, just over one-third of the $787 billion has been paid out to recipients. “The stimulus is peaking in the, you know, around now and the first couple of quarters of this year is when it’s going into its peak impact on the economy,” said Austan Goolsbee, a member of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, on ABC News’ “Top Line” today. “And no single government program is ever going to be enough to fill that 8 million job hole that was created in this deepest recession since 1929,” Goolsbee added.  He went on to say that the administration is on target to hit its stated goal of saving or creating 3.5 million jobs once all of the recovery act money has been disbursed.   Goolsbee’s comments about the economic impact peaking now and in the first couple of quarters of this year seemed to be at odds with what CEA Chairwoman Dr. Christina Romer said during her congressional testimony in October. “Most analysts predict that the fiscal stimulus will have its greatest impact on growth in the second and third quarters of 2009. By mid-2010, fiscal stimulus will likely be contributing little to growth,” Dr. Romer said in her appearance before the Joint Committee on Taxation. “I think that’s when it started peaking,” Goolsbee said when we pressed him about how to square his comments about the economic impact of the stimulus with Dr. Romer’s October comments.  “It’s kind of bumping around at the top period I think that’s where maybe the confusion is and then by the end of this year it starts, it starts going down. It’s still having a big impact but it’s contribution to growth gets smaller as it shrinks,” he added. Dr. Romer also told George Stephanopoulos on GMA today that the biggest bang from the stimulus is “absolutely not” already behind us. “In terms of the level of things we care about like employment and the unemployment rate, those effects are going to grow over time,” Romer said on GMA. We also chatted with GQ’s Washington correspondent, Ana Marie Cox, about how the White House could have done a better job selling the stimulus bill to the American people over the course of the last year and what role the press has played in the apparently significant misunderstanding among the electorate about the bill.