The Challenges in Marja

Our correspondent Miguel Marquez reports today from Camp Leatherneck, Afghanistan, about the coming battle for Marja, the Taliban stronghold in strife-torn Helmand province. Our polling there shows just how much of a challenge it is.

One key factor: The need for allied forces to minimize civilian casualties as they push ahead. Our data show that such casualties are a significant predictor of Afghans' views on U.S. efforts in their country; where civilian deaths and injuries are higher, so is opposition to the allied cause.

And in Helmand, they’re high.

In all Afghanistan, 16 percent of the population reports bombing or shelling in their area by U.S. or NATO/ISAF forces. That soars to 60 percent in Helmand. Similarly, 58 percent in Helmand report civilians killed or injured in the last year as a result of actions by U.S. or NATO/ISAF forces. In the rest of Afghanistan it’s 19 percent. (Civilian casualties blamed on the Taliban, and on the Afghan National Army, also spike in Helmand.)

It follows that just 36 percent in Helmand personally support the presence of U.S. forces in their area. It’s similar, 42 percent, in the troubled South and East overall. In the rest of Afghanistan, outside these two regions, support soars to 78 percent.

In another measure, just 18 percent in Helmand report strong local support for the United States among the people in their area; alarmingly, 25 percent report strong local support for the Taliban. Expand this to “any” support, not just “strong,” and the U.S. does better. But it’s an indication of the distance the United States has to go in winning hearts and minds in the province.

As things stand, positive ratings of the U.S. performance in Afghanistan drop to 19 percent in Helmand vs. 39 percent in the rest of the country. Just 27 percent in Helmand are confident in the ability of U.S. and NATO forces to provide security, compared with 49 percent elsewhere. And ratings of the central government, the provincial government and the local police – including confidence in their ability to provide security – likewise are much lower in Helmand than in the rest of Afghanistan.

A variety of factors predict support for the U.S. presence in Afghanistan. These include confidence in the national government, assistance from foreign aid, and three that are closely related to the military efforts in Helmand: security from the Taliban, a sense that the United States has a strong local presence, and, as noted, the level of civilian casualties attributed to it. Balancing these may well spell the difference between success and failure in Marja, and beyond.

                                      Rest of                           Helmand  AfghanistanU.S./NATO shelling/bombing   60%        16%     Civilian casualties    Caused by U.S./NATO        58         19 

Positive ratings of:Central gov’t                25         62 U.S. performance             19         39 Provincial gov’t             17         59                                            Support U.S. presence        36         69 Strong local support:    for U.S.                  18         40    for Taliban               25         11 Any local support   for U.S.                  58         73    for Taliban               44         25

                                           Confident in security from:Provincial gov’t             36         77 Central gov’t                54         84 Local police                 22         77 U.S. forces                  27         49